But in terms of mind share, it has accomplished what it set out to do so so in terms of that it has been a success.
Exactly. I think it's inclusion into the presentation was meant to distract from the crap that is Windows 10, and it has succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.
Surely, you don't mean Guy Kawasaki -- AIR, his top job at Apple was Evangelist.
No sorry, I meant to type Gil. I was referring to John Sculley andGil Amelio. Guy Kawasaki was a great evangelist. I met Guy on several occasions along with Russel Brown from Adobe at Photoshop 1.x seminars at UCSB. John and GIl, while probably good leaders at their prior companies just lacked the vision and/or passion and couldn't envision the future of Apple's tech. Even with Sculley's presentation of the Knowledge Navigator [, he just failed to grasp that dream or meet any deadlines. At least Gil brought Steve back and bought NEXT.
But as you know, if you consider a product not shipped immediately after being announced the Apple Watch is also vaporware. The iPad was also vaporware as it didnt ship for months. The iPhone was also vaporware as it didnt ship for months and it also was demo'd as a prototype, much like Hololens.
New Apple product categories are demoed early because the need to undergo regulatory review that will make the device public anyway. Apple has to choose between announcing early or losing the element of surprise. Apart from the fact the paperwork isn't all finished, the "prototype" Apple demos is nearly identical to the fully functional finished product.
Microsoft, on the other hand, announces things like the hololens years before they are ready for regulatory review and even before they even know how they are going to accomplish everything they promise. I fully expect this product to be a repeat of the surface (table). It looks cool in the demo doing a couple of specific things, but never becomes a finished product.
I think you, and DED are wrong about potential and future of HaloLens.
The following video shows some of this:
Aside from the presenter's endearing, yet distracting voice changes -- and the clumsy efforts to promote Windows 10, there was some real meat in the preso.
At about 15:00 in, they discuss, then demo their Holo Studio app.
If you pay attention to the non-HoloLens camera view, you can see the various parts offset from the assembly, in Lorraine's line of sight through the HaloLens view.
It is a little stilted, but a very comprehensive demo of real hardware and software.
I would have liked to have seen Lorraine use more gestures to grab and rotate the model with her hands ...
Also, the choice of a quadcopter was a overambitious and little deceiving -- likely, they would have 3D printed the base only, and combined it with rotor blades, motors, etc. A simpler (no moving parts) project would have been more realistic -- then, prompt the viewers, with the possibilities -- and let their minds fill in the blanks ...
But, all-in-all a good demo!
Then, at about 21:51 in, they discuss the work being done with JPL -- no slouch there!
The JPL rep said they plan to deploy this summer and be controlling Rovers on Mars this July ...
IDK, but I assume that the Rovers will be equipped with cameras/sensors similar to Google's StreetView cameras. They would make an initial deployment of the Rover, gathering an initial run of 3D mapping data. This would be transmitted back to JPL and used in their on-earth HaloLens Mars explorations. As the scientists identify new areas of interest, the Rover would be re-deployed, re-map, re-transmit, re-explore ... rinse and repeat!
I suspect that $millions are being spent on this project -- and that it is based on real hardware and software.
What I found really frustrating for Microsoft: Even their biggest surprise, the HoloLense only summoned very little applause. With most other 'news' you could clearly see they were waiting for applause, but the room was silent except for some nervous coughs.
Just compare that to an Apple keynote. Microsoft isn't even able to have their own people cheer and clap.
And the whole demo was much too long and much too much useless advertisment talk, I needed to watch the demo in 4 parts because after a few minutes I'd fall asleep.
Because Microsoft doesn't know how to stage an event like Apple. You demonstrate something like HoloLens at Build in San Francisco where the place is packed with developers and media. Not at a media-only event at a small company briefing room.
What I found really frustrating for Microsoft: Even their biggest surprise, the HoloLense only summoned very little applause. With most other 'news' you could clearly see they were waiting for applause, but the room was silent except for some nervous coughs.
Just compare that to an Apple keynote. Microsoft isn't even able to have their own people cheer and clap.
And the whole demo was much too long and much too much useless advertisment talk, I needed to watch the demo in 4 parts because after a few minutes I'd fall asleep.
Because Microsoft doesn't know how to stage an event like Apple. You demonstrate something like HoloLens at Build in San Francisco where the place is packed with developers and media. Not at a media-only event at a small company briefing room.
Anyway, the corollary is : bad artists try to copy. That's Microsoft, and Samsung, and many others.
Well it depends on what you define as "art". When painting something such as a bowl of fruit, it's necessary to copy in order to have some basis in reality. In that case, copying merely means being affected and influenced by the things you see around you, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Nobody's yelling at Samsung for making touchscreen phones, even though Apple technically did it first, because the category of a touchscreen phone is just that; a category. It's not anything specific that belongs to any one person. That's why it bothers me so much when, for example, people call Cortana "Siri-like". They may have very similar functions, but they are very different in many ways and people are really only saying that because Siri came out first.
Anyways, I feel like I'm getting a bit off topic, but another thing I wanted to bring up was that you're missing the rest of the Steve Jobs quote. After quoting Picasso he said "we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas", so copying isn't exclusive to Microsoft or Samsung. The thing is, when Apple steals things it's often years after (the new flat, glassy, color-changing dock in Yosemite is like a matte version of the Windows 7 taskbar for example), or from areas that are too un-noteworthy to notice (the iPod from Kane Kramer)
Ignoring the change that Satya Nadella has brought to Microsoft is stupid. Yes, Windows 8, Zune, Surface RT, and pretty much every product initiative under Ballmer was terrible. But this is not the Microsoft from 5 years ago. Nadella is listening to customers, pushing teams to come up with innovative ideas, and will probably herald a second golden age for Microsoft. Anyone that looks at Microsoft's recent failures, under Ballmer, as the sum of what the company is capable of is blind.
This is all wonderful and all (and overly opinionateda), but there is no competing Apple product at all in any way shape or form. I am happy for both companies. It is possible, you know.
But as you know, if you consider a product not shipped immediately after being announced the Apple Watch is also vaporware. The iPad was also vaporware as it didnt ship for months. The iPhone was also vaporware as it didnt ship for months and it also was demo'd as a prototype, much like Hololens.
Even if this product does 30% of what it promises, it is still better than 0%.
no no no
When Apple announced the iWatch, it presented an actual finished physical product with pre-production hardware samples on hand and at the announcement. its beta software was not ready for hands-on demo then, but the fact is that it will be going on sale now about six months later. and the same was true of the original iPhone announcement btw. that is not "vaporware" in any sense of that term and it is totally ridiculous to say it is.
MS' so-called HoloLens is at best a very early hardware prototype running very conceptual alpha software. maybe it will lead to a real consumer product someday, but that is clearly years off. if it never does, then it will have been in fact "vaporware."
years back, MS's did show off similar very early demos of what became its Kinnect consumer product several years later. so you can point to that as a precedent for the possibility that this HoloLens may not have been total PR BS. we'll see.
but there is no disputing that MS' calling its augmented reality 3D overlay image software "holograms" is just a flat out lie. and that lie really detracts from the credibility of the entire project.
while i don't fit the profile of most users here, i can certainly agree that microsoft has made a lot of mistakes. i quite enjoyed this article!
on the point of the HoloLens in particular, though... the sentiment that this is a solution looking for a problem is perfectly apt. i'm reminded of Leap Motion's device. while that wasn't vaporware, it can certainly be described as vaportech. i mean, the device and APIs were available and there were a handful of apps but even the much-vaunted crowd-sourced intellect of Developers couldn't find a compelling use for the technology (other than a port for Fruit Ninja!). if anyone thinks using a large vertical touch surface is taxing, try waving your hands around in the air for any real length of time. factor in the parallax-ish problems involved with moving to and then grabbing an "object" or even selecting something, it all becomes more than frustrating.
i'm also reminded of those mind-reading headsets from neurosky and emotiv (i think). the marketing of these seems to have changed dramatically. 4 years ago, they were supposed to revolutionize gaming. imagine being able to play WoW with just your thoughts! well, now they just focus on meditation apps.
That said, I'm glad to see companies like Google and Microsoft pushing the envelope. Apple seems rather conservative these days by comparison. Of course, who knows what they're up to in their R&D department. Apple is never one to show off total vapor products just to get some headlines. They don't need to.
Consider the mainstream technology that people are actually using in 2015. Who is actually selling the stuff that is generally seen as the best? Could it be Apple? Did Apple demonstrate any of the stuff people are buying and using today in some crazy commercial years before? No, they just developed it and launched it.
It's easy to be seduced by these concept videos but think back to the original MS surface videos from around 2005 and the precursor to Kinect linked to above - where are these now? It is very easy, particularly from armchair enthusiasts like us to get excited about this stuff. But as Steve Jobs, and others I think, said "real programmers ship".
It's easy to get excited over Google or MS OR Amazon techno-porn previews. Apple doesn't really bother, it just continues to release the products that people use now. It will probably be doing the same 10 years from now when the HoloLens is just another shelved project and people are getting excited again about the new next great thing from MS or Google that was never really bought by anyone much before getting discontinued.
Strangely, showing CGI videos of proposed tech is "pushing the envelope" whereas actually delivering something you can buy is "conservative". Hey ho ...
It appears that HoloLens may be closer to being a delivered technology than most here realize.
Likely, the press event was meant to drive interest for the Build event.
Let's look at the timeline:
[CODE] 1/21/2015 4/29/2015 ??/??/?? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HoloLens HoloLens HoloLens Press Event Build Event Available Developer SDK? To Consumers [/CODE]
The big unknown, is the final event: HoloLens Available To Consumers.
I suspect the New Microsoft, emulating Apple's WWDC, will make the SDK available to registered developers at the Bulid event ... Then [B][I] announce [/I][/B] Availability To Customers as [B][I] in the fall [/I][/B] or [B][I] early next year.[/I][/B]
I am under the impression that any delay will be caused by Windows 10 rather than by HoloLens itself. If MS is smart, they will have allowed for this and permit HaloLens development on current Windows releases.
That said, I'm glad to see companies like Google and Microsoft pushing the envelope. Apple seems rather conservative these days by comparison. Of course, who knows what they're up to in their R&D department. Apple is never one to show off total vapor products just to get some headlines. They don't need to.
Consider the mainstream technology that people are actually using in 2015. Who is actually selling the stuff that is generally seen as the best? Could it be Apple? Did Apple demonstrate any of the stuff people are buying and using today in some crazy commercial years before? No, they just developed it and launched it.
It's easy to be seduced by these concept videos but think back to the original MS surface videos from around 2005 and the precursor to Kinect linked to above - where are these now? It is very easy, particularly from armchair enthusiasts like us to get excited about this stuff. But as Steve Jobs, and others I think, said "real programmers ship".
It's easy to get excited over Google or MS OR Amazon techno-porn previews. Apple doesn't really bother, it just continues to release the products that people use now. It will probably be doing the same 10 years from now when the HoloLens is just another shelved project and people are getting excited again about the new next great thing from MS or Google that was never really bought by anyone much before getting discontinued.
Strangely, showing CGI videos of proposed tech is "pushing the envelope" whereas actually delivering something you can buy is "conservative". Hey ho ...
When the product you are demonstrating uses, nay depends on CGI -- how do you propose making videos of the product without using CGI?
Actually, in the video (posted earlier) which demonstrates building the quadcopter, they showed both:
the CGI as seen through the headset worn by the designer
the CGI shown from the side as captured by a special video camera
You could see the CGI component being applied, hanging in space between the designer and the product being assembled.
No mean accomplishment this!
As for the detractors, the HoloLens tech appears to satisfy at least one definition of holography:
Holography is a technique which enables three-dimensional images (holograms) to be made. It involves the use of a laser, interference, diffraction, light intensity recording and suitable illumination of the recording. The image changes as the position and orientation of the viewing system changes in exactly the same way as if the object were still present, thus making the image appear three-dimensional.
I think you, and DED are wrong about potential and future of HaloLens.
The following video shows some of this:
Aside from the presenter's endearing, yet distracting voice changes -- and the clumsy efforts to promote Windows 10, there was some real meat in the preso.
At about 15:00 in, they discuss, then demo their Holo Studio app.
If you pay attention to the non-HoloLens camera view, you can see the various parts offset from the assembly, in Lorraine's line of sight through the HaloLens view.
It is a little stilted, but a very comprehensive demo of real hardware and software.
I would have liked to have seen Lorraine use more gestures to grab and rotate the model with her hands ...
Also, the choice of a quadcopter was a overambitious and little deceiving -- likely, they would have 3D printed the base only, and combined it with rotor blades, motors, etc. A simpler (no moving parts) project would have been more realistic -- then, prompt the viewers, with the possibilities -- and let their minds fill in the blanks ...
But, all-in-all a good demo!
Then, at about 21:51 in, they discuss the work being done with JPL -- no slouch there!
The JPL rep said they plan to deploy this summer and be controlling Rovers on Mars this July ...
IDK, but I assume that the Rovers will be equipped with cameras/sensors similar to Google's StreetView cameras. They would make an initial deployment of the Rover, gathering an initial run of 3D mapping data. This would be transmitted back to JPL and used in their on-earth HaloLens Mars explorations. As the scientists identify new areas of interest, the Rover would be re-deployed, re-map, re-transmit, re-explore ... rinse and repeat!
I suspect that $millions are being spent on this project -- and that it is based on real hardware and software.
[VIDEO]
Maybe. I still think the promotional video that I have seen floating around gives a false impression.
The technology looks cool and might have some potential in the future, but what Microsoft has demonstrated is that it can do 3D CAD. That isn't too exciting for me or, I would expect, the average consumer. Plus, the hand gestures in the demo look extremely awkward.
I could be wrong, but I still think even in the best case, this will go the same way as Google Glass.
Comments
But in terms of mind share, it has accomplished what it set out to do so so in terms of that it has been a success.
Exactly. I think it's inclusion into the presentation was meant to distract from the crap that is Windows 10, and it has succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.
Guy?
Surely, you don't mean Guy Kawasaki -- AIR, his top job at Apple was Evangelist.
No sorry, I meant to type Gil. I was referring to John Sculley and Gil Amelio. Guy Kawasaki was a great evangelist. I met Guy on several occasions along with Russel Brown from Adobe at Photoshop 1.x seminars at UCSB. John and GIl, while probably good leaders at their prior companies just lacked the vision and/or passion and couldn't envision the future of Apple's tech. Even with Sculley's presentation of the Knowledge Navigator [
, he just failed to grasp that dream or meet any deadlines. At least Gil brought Steve back and bought NEXT.
I think you, and DED are wrong about potential and future of HaloLens.
The following video shows some of this:
Aside from the presenter's endearing, yet distracting voice changes -- and the clumsy efforts to promote Windows 10, there was some real meat in the preso.
At about 15:00 in, they discuss, then demo their Holo Studio app.
If you pay attention to the non-HoloLens camera view, you can see the various parts offset from the assembly, in Lorraine's line of sight through the HaloLens view.
It is a little stilted, but a very comprehensive demo of real hardware and software.
I would have liked to have seen Lorraine use more gestures to grab and rotate the model with her hands ...
Also, the choice of a quadcopter was a overambitious and little deceiving -- likely, they would have 3D printed the base only, and combined it with rotor blades, motors, etc. A simpler (no moving parts) project would have been more realistic -- then, prompt the viewers, with the possibilities -- and let their minds fill in the blanks ...
But, all-in-all a good demo!
Then, at about 21:51 in, they discuss the work being done with JPL -- no slouch there!
The JPL rep said they plan to deploy this summer and be controlling Rovers on Mars this July ...
IDK, but I assume that the Rovers will be equipped with cameras/sensors similar to Google's StreetView cameras. They would make an initial deployment of the Rover, gathering an initial run of 3D mapping data. This would be transmitted back to JPL and used in their on-earth HaloLens Mars explorations. As the scientists identify new areas of interest, the Rover would be re-deployed, re-map, re-transmit, re-explore ... rinse and repeat!
I suspect that $millions are being spent on this project -- and that it is based on real hardware and software.
[VIDEO]
Because Microsoft doesn't know how to stage an event like Apple. You demonstrate something like HoloLens at Build in San Francisco where the place is packed with developers and media. Not at a media-only event at a small company briefing room.
That says it all.
^^^ This!
“Whoa, man, look at all the money we made selling these things!”
Revised rankings - just released!
1) St. Patrick (the snakes)
2) Pied Piper of Hamlin (the rats)
3) (well, a very distant third) Dancing Dingbats of Microsoft (the - you know)
Actually Picasso didn't say that.
Anyway, the corollary is : bad artists try to copy. That's Microsoft, and Samsung, and many others.
Well it depends on what you define as "art". When painting something such as a bowl of fruit, it's necessary to copy in order to have some basis in reality. In that case, copying merely means being affected and influenced by the things you see around you, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Nobody's yelling at Samsung for making touchscreen phones, even though Apple technically did it first, because the category of a touchscreen phone is just that; a category. It's not anything specific that belongs to any one person. That's why it bothers me so much when, for example, people call Cortana "Siri-like". They may have very similar functions, but they are very different in many ways and people are really only saying that because Siri came out first.
Anyways, I feel like I'm getting a bit off topic, but another thing I wanted to bring up was that you're missing the rest of the Steve Jobs quote. After quoting Picasso he said "we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas", so copying isn't exclusive to Microsoft or Samsung. The thing is, when Apple steals things it's often years after (the new flat, glassy, color-changing dock in Yosemite is like a matte version of the Windows 7 taskbar for example), or from areas that are too un-noteworthy to notice (the iPod from Kane Kramer)
Ignoring the change that Satya Nadella has brought to Microsoft is stupid. Yes, Windows 8, Zune, Surface RT, and pretty much every product initiative under Ballmer was terrible. But this is not the Microsoft from 5 years ago. Nadella is listening to customers, pushing teams to come up with innovative ideas, and will probably herald a second golden age for Microsoft. Anyone that looks at Microsoft's recent failures, under Ballmer, as the sum of what the company is capable of is blind.
This is all wonderful and all (and overly opinionateda), but there is no competing Apple product at all in any way shape or form. I am happy for both companies. It is possible, you know.
But as you know, if you consider a product not shipped immediately after being announced the Apple Watch is also vaporware. The iPad was also vaporware as it didnt ship for months. The iPhone was also vaporware as it didnt ship for months and it also was demo'd as a prototype, much like Hololens.
Even if this product does 30% of what it promises, it is still better than 0%.
no no no
When Apple announced the iWatch, it presented an actual finished physical product with pre-production hardware samples on hand and at the announcement. its beta software was not ready for hands-on demo then, but the fact is that it will be going on sale now about six months later. and the same was true of the original iPhone announcement btw. that is not "vaporware" in any sense of that term and it is totally ridiculous to say it is.
MS' so-called HoloLens is at best a very early hardware prototype running very conceptual alpha software. maybe it will lead to a real consumer product someday, but that is clearly years off. if it never does, then it will have been in fact "vaporware."
years back, MS's did show off similar very early demos of what became its Kinnect consumer product several years later. so you can point to that as a precedent for the possibility that this HoloLens may not have been total PR BS. we'll see.
but there is no disputing that MS' calling its augmented reality 3D overlay image software "holograms" is just a flat out lie. and that lie really detracts from the credibility of the entire project.
while i don't fit the profile of most users here, i can certainly agree that microsoft has made a lot of mistakes. i quite enjoyed this article!
on the point of the HoloLens in particular, though... the sentiment that this is a solution looking for a problem is perfectly apt. i'm reminded of Leap Motion's device. while that wasn't vaporware, it can certainly be described as vaportech. i mean, the device and APIs were available and there were a handful of apps but even the much-vaunted crowd-sourced intellect of Developers couldn't find a compelling use for the technology (other than a port for Fruit Ninja!). if anyone thinks using a large vertical touch surface is taxing, try waving your hands around in the air for any real length of time. factor in the parallax-ish problems involved with moving to and then grabbing an "object" or even selecting something, it all becomes more than frustrating.
i'm also reminded of those mind-reading headsets from neurosky and emotiv (i think). the marketing of these seems to have changed dramatically. 4 years ago, they were supposed to revolutionize gaming. imagine being able to play WoW with just your thoughts! well, now they just focus on meditation apps.
maybe it will lead to a real consumer product someday, but that is clearly years off
Microsoft says the Hololens will be released in "the Windows 10 time frame". Windows 10 is expected to be released some time this fall.
In addition, Windows 10 itself is currently in very early builds, is unstable and mostly conceptual, but no one's calling that vaporware
Microsoft says the Hololens will be released in "the Windows 10 time frame". Windows 10 is expected to be released some time this fall.
In addition, Windows 10 itself is currently in very early builds, is unstable and mostly conceptual, but no one's calling that vaporware
You're right. Though, Windows 10 time frame could mean the day Windows 10 launches to one day before Windows 11.
You're right. Though, Windows 10 time frame could mean the day Windows 10 launches to one day before Windows 11.
While I see your point, I must note that from what I've heard there will be no Windows 11. Only continuous updates to Windows 10
Consider the mainstream technology that people are actually using in 2015. Who is actually selling the stuff that is generally seen as the best? Could it be Apple? Did Apple demonstrate any of the stuff people are buying and using today in some crazy commercial years before? No, they just developed it and launched it.
It's easy to be seduced by these concept videos but think back to the original MS surface videos from around 2005 and the precursor to Kinect linked to above - where are these now? It is very easy, particularly from armchair enthusiasts like us to get excited about this stuff. But as Steve Jobs, and others I think, said "real programmers ship".
It's easy to get excited over Google or MS OR Amazon techno-porn previews. Apple doesn't really bother, it just continues to release the products that people use now. It will probably be doing the same 10 years from now when the HoloLens is just another shelved project and people are getting excited again about the new next great thing from MS or Google that was never really bought by anyone much before getting discontinued.
Strangely, showing CGI videos of proposed tech is "pushing the envelope" whereas actually delivering something you can buy is "conservative". Hey ho ...
Likely, the press event was meant to drive interest for the Build event.
Let's look at the timeline:
[CODE]
1/21/2015 4/29/2015 ??/??/??
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HoloLens HoloLens HoloLens
Press Event Build Event Available
Developer SDK? To Consumers
[/CODE]
The big unknown, is the final event: HoloLens Available To Consumers.
I suspect the New Microsoft, emulating Apple's WWDC, will make the SDK available to registered developers at the Bulid event ... Then [B][I] announce [/I][/B] Availability To Customers as [B][I] in the fall [/I][/B] or [B][I] early next year.[/I][/B]
I am under the impression that any delay will be caused by Windows 10 rather than by HoloLens itself. If MS is smart, they will have allowed for this and permit HaloLens development on current Windows releases.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/54728/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
http://www.microsoft.com/microsoft-hololens/en-us/get-ready
When the product you are demonstrating uses, nay depends on CGI -- how do you propose making videos of the product without using CGI?
Actually, in the video (posted earlier) which demonstrates building the quadcopter, they showed both:
You could see the CGI component being applied, hanging in space between the designer and the product being assembled.
No mean accomplishment this!
As for the detractors, the HoloLens tech appears to satisfy at least one definition of holography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holography
Finally, I am no great fan of MS (our household is MS-Free). However, I pride myself in recognizing tech potential -- regardless of the source.
“Whoa, man, look at all the money we made selling these things!”
Those are some rude gestures in some countries.
Maybe. I still think the promotional video that I have seen floating around gives a false impression.
The technology looks cool and might have some potential in the future, but what Microsoft has demonstrated is that it can do 3D CAD. That isn't too exciting for me or, I would expect, the average consumer. Plus, the hand gestures in the demo look extremely awkward.
I could be wrong, but I still think even in the best case, this will go the same way as Google Glass.