If your point is right, you'll see this 4" logic board leaks in coming months. My prediction is NO. I doubt that Apple would do too much for mid-term refresh products. This year, they focus more on their flagship 6S/6+S which give them more margin. I would be very shocked if they make iP6 logic board for 4" and release it this year. Based on this leaked case, it's simply just a 5S rebadged in plastic case for the third tier to replace the current discontinuing 5C and 5S as rumored.
I think we're saying the same thing -- I'm just calling the plastic "6C" the 5SC for what it will really be, without NFC.
But I think you are unfairly discounting a "6 mini" as the mid-tier. There is a demand for the 4" iPhone with top-tier specs. But I don't see Apple releasing 3 different sizes with the latest technology. Instead, if they take the current 6 and shrink it, they address both the mid-tier buyers as well as the top-tier customers who want a 4" screen.
So either Apple does not address the 4" market, except with the plastic 5SC, or they offer a brand new 4" model, either as a 6S mini, or a 4" mid-tier 6.
Apple has already done this once with the 5c. They reingineered the 5 in a new case, which will last them 3 years. If they reengineer the 6 in a new case now, it will once again last them 3 years.
I think what happened was that it was expected that the 5C would be about 50% of sales, but instead ended up at about 30%. While that was characterized as a failure, to a certain point, it still outsold the Galaxy S4, and then the S5.
no one really knows what % of models were flagship vs 5C. apple doesnt release expected vs actual per-model sales numbers, and looking at the US sales for it in carrier stores (#2 or #3 most popular device, you can guess what #1 was), i cant see it being anything other than a success. Cook said it was less than they thought, but committed nothing further. anything else is just rumor and speculation....and the WSJ is not particularly reliable.
I think we're saying the same thing -- I'm just calling the plastic "6C" the 5SC for what it will really be, without NFC.
But I think you are unfairly discounting a "6 mini" as the mid-tier. There is a demand for the 4" iPhone with top-tier specs. But I don't see Apple releasing 3 different sizes with the latest technology. Instead, if they take the current 6 and shrink it, they address both the mid-tier buyers as well as the top-tier customers who want a 4" screen.
So either Apple does not address the 4" market, except with the plastic 5SC, or they offer a brand new 4" model, either as a 6S mini, or a 4" mid-tier 6.
Apple has already done this once with the 5c. They reingineered the 5 in a new case, which will last them 3 years. If they reengineer the 6 in a new case now, it will once again last them 3 years.
The reason I predict no 4" 6 (6 mini) as the mid-tier is margin. If they somehow make 6 mini, it will be at top tier or at $199 subsidized level, not $99. Because of logistic, $199 will conflict with other top tier 4.7". That's why I don't think there'll be new 4" iPhone 6. Remember this: iPhone 6 is actually only 15-20% faster than 5S. If Apple want to do 4" at mid tier, I guess 5S would be the choice with NFC + Apple Pay and maybe camera updated. Everything is possible. However, if they make this 5S rebadged 6C for mid tier, they have to kill current iPhone 6. Otherwise, there's no sale for 6C with the same price as 6.
6S+: $299 sub.
6S: $199
6: $99
6C (5S rebadged with/without NFC): $0 <---- how can it be called 6C if it's 5S rebadged without anything upgraded?
The reason I predict no 4" 6 (6 mini) as the mid-tier is margin. If they somehow make 6 mini, it will be at top tier or at $199 subsidized level, not $99. Because of logistic, $199 will conflict with other top tier 4.7"... If Apple want to do 4" at mid tier, I guess 5S would be the choice with NFC + Apple Pay and maybe camera updated.
Right, this is the same reason I don't believe there will be a 6S mini, unless they offer it for $149 (Hey stranger things have happened).
I think you may be on to something with the 5S getting an update in the existing aluminum case design. Bump up the processor, camera, and add NFC and offer it as the mid-tier phone.
Chances are Apple will just offer the 4.7" 6 as the mid-tier phone as-is, the way they used to do it. Maybe offer it in different colors than the 6S to distinguish them. Or maybe they offer the 5S with the updated 6 features at the $99 price point, and offer the 6 for $149?
The current 5, 5c & 5s are all without ?Pay. The ?Watch offers ?Pay. Why reengineer the 5S to include NFC, which requires R&D, when they can just sell the 5sc as compatible with the ?Watch which offers ?Pay? In other words, 'here's your free phone' if you want ?Pay, upgrade or buy the ?Watch'.
First, I have no intention of taking the sucker deal of "here's your free phone". Buying unlocked with maximum memory is the only option I would consider. Second, you may be right that Apple might slack off and fail to ramp up ApplePay as fast as possible. That would be fine if there were no competitors waiting for Apple to drop the ball. I certainly don't know if the Apple Watch will soar or flop. But depending on iPhone owners to spend $500 - $1,000+ to access a feature that benefits Apple (and their customers) is problematic. Of course all these issues have probably been settled and we will just have to wait for summer or early fall to see which argument prevailed. I am certainly more optimistic about my 4" iPhone being an option.
no one really knows what % of models were flagship vs 5C. apple doesnt release expected vs actual per-model sales numbers, and looking at the US sales for it in carrier stores (#2 or #3 most popular device, you can guess what #1 was), i cant see it being anything other than a success. Cook said it was less than they thought, but committed nothing further. anything else is just rumor and speculation....and the WSJ is not particularly reliable.
The WSJ is really pretty good. But Cook himself said that they lowered production of the 5C and raised production of the 5S. Looking at the MSRP you can figure out an approximate percentage of these. In addition there are ways to see what retailers are selling. All of these organizations have an in with retailers, suppliers, etc. The assumption of 60% for the 5S, 30% 5C, and 10% for the rest seems about right.
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Agreed, the pastel colours are truly awful. Though I'm not in the market for one I would like to see a what they look like in the deep blue, scarlet and orange hues of the iPod nano days.
how could they possibly call a rebaged 5S an iPhone6C?
Do you seriously think just a faster A9+force touch will be enough for people to shell out $100 for an identical 6S instead of the 6? I don't think so.
There is a ton of proof that the older models were hurting the top tier. This happenned big time with the iPhone5. A ton of people opted for the 4S instead and that can be seen by the average selling price and margins.
1. Easily
2. Obviously
3. None - totally circumstantial and poorly correlated evidence - likely merely coincidental with a significant evolution in the Apple product mix (many more ipads sold with much lower margins including the Mini), slowing iphone growth, etc. The 5 was significantly more expensive to make than the 4S (legacy 4 shell) so margins reduced, etc. etc. etc.
" Finally, the plastic casing also appears to show a camera module that would be flush with the rear of the device. Apple's latest generation iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus boast thinner designs that have resulted in a protruding camera."
still does not explain the lower price per unit for the iPhone5.
Do you want to make a bet?
If Apple sells a METAL iPhone6 as its mid-range phone for $99 I'll ban myself for 1 month. If they don't you ban yourself.
Iphone 5 never had a lower price point than any other top-tier iphone... in fact when it was released, the iPhone ASP went up for Q1FY2013! Only in later FY2013 quarters did it go down and that seems to be due to a growing international mix (mostly without subsidy) and specifically in China where Apple did not have a competitive LTE product until the 5S/5C.
As to the bet... you're on... no-one will notice if I'm not around and if I win, it's only upside for the community ;-)
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Do you mean black? Or do you mean gold?
Black gold... Texas tea...
...well the next thing you know ol' Jed's a millionaire, the kin-folk said "Jed, move away from there" said, "California is the place you oughta be" so they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly. Hills, that is. Swimming pools, movie stars...
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Do you mean black? Or do you mean gold?
Black gold... Texas tea...
...well the next thing you know ol' Jed's a millionaire, the kin-folk said "Jed, move away from there" said, "California is the place you oughta be" so they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly. Hills, that is. Swimming pools, movie stars...
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Do you mean black? Or do you mean gold?
Black gold... Texas tea...
...well the next thing you know ol' Jed's a millionaire, the kin-folk said "Jed, move away from there" said, "California is the place you oughta be" so they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly. Hills, that is. Swimming pools, movie stars...
A song?
Yep. Theme song for the Beverly Hillbillies. Classic American sitcom from the sixties. I see you're not in USA, but I've seen re-runs outside of USA. I think it's probably still being shown somewhere on the planet at any given moment. Anyway, any time someone says black gold, I can't help but think of that theme song...
still does not explain the lower price per unit for the iPhone5.
Do you want to make a bet?
If Apple sells a METAL iPhone6 as its mid-range phone for $99 I'll ban myself for 1 month. If they don't you ban yourself.
I'll bet you on it: iPhone 6 will not be discontinued but dropped to 2nd tier for $99 cheaper. Force Touch and better CPU/GPU, RAM would worth the upgrade. So, my prediction will stay at:
Comments
If your point is right, you'll see this 4" logic board leaks in coming months. My prediction is NO. I doubt that Apple would do too much for mid-term refresh products. This year, they focus more on their flagship 6S/6+S which give them more margin. I would be very shocked if they make iP6 logic board for 4" and release it this year. Based on this leaked case, it's simply just a 5S rebadged in plastic case for the third tier to replace the current discontinuing 5C and 5S as rumored.
I think we're saying the same thing -- I'm just calling the plastic "6C" the 5SC for what it will really be, without NFC.
But I think you are unfairly discounting a "6 mini" as the mid-tier. There is a demand for the 4" iPhone with top-tier specs. But I don't see Apple releasing 3 different sizes with the latest technology. Instead, if they take the current 6 and shrink it, they address both the mid-tier buyers as well as the top-tier customers who want a 4" screen.
So either Apple does not address the 4" market, except with the plastic 5SC, or they offer a brand new 4" model, either as a 6S mini, or a 4" mid-tier 6.
Apple has already done this once with the 5c. They reingineered the 5 in a new case, which will last them 3 years. If they reengineer the 6 in a new case now, it will once again last them 3 years.
Nope.
He said they were different, not less.
I think we're saying the same thing -- I'm just calling the plastic "6C" the 5SC for what it will really be, without NFC.
But I think you are unfairly discounting a "6 mini" as the mid-tier. There is a demand for the 4" iPhone with top-tier specs. But I don't see Apple releasing 3 different sizes with the latest technology. Instead, if they take the current 6 and shrink it, they address both the mid-tier buyers as well as the top-tier customers who want a 4" screen.
So either Apple does not address the 4" market, except with the plastic 5SC, or they offer a brand new 4" model, either as a 6S mini, or a 4" mid-tier 6.
Apple has already done this once with the 5c. They reingineered the 5 in a new case, which will last them 3 years. If they reengineer the 6 in a new case now, it will once again last them 3 years.
The reason I predict no 4" 6 (6 mini) as the mid-tier is margin. If they somehow make 6 mini, it will be at top tier or at $199 subsidized level, not $99. Because of logistic, $199 will conflict with other top tier 4.7". That's why I don't think there'll be new 4" iPhone 6. Remember this: iPhone 6 is actually only 15-20% faster than 5S. If Apple want to do 4" at mid tier, I guess 5S would be the choice with NFC + Apple Pay and maybe camera updated. Everything is possible. However, if they make this 5S rebadged 6C for mid tier, they have to kill current iPhone 6. Otherwise, there's no sale for 6C with the same price as 6.
6S+: $299 sub.
6S: $199
6: $99
6C (5S rebadged with/without NFC): $0 <---- how can it be called 6C if it's 5S rebadged without anything upgraded?
Current 5S and 5C are discontinued.
The reason I predict no 4" 6 (6 mini) as the mid-tier is margin. If they somehow make 6 mini, it will be at top tier or at $199 subsidized level, not $99. Because of logistic, $199 will conflict with other top tier 4.7"... If Apple want to do 4" at mid tier, I guess 5S would be the choice with NFC + Apple Pay and maybe camera updated.
Right, this is the same reason I don't believe there will be a 6S mini, unless they offer it for $149 (Hey stranger things have happened).
I think you may be on to something with the 5S getting an update in the existing aluminum case design. Bump up the processor, camera, and add NFC and offer it as the mid-tier phone.
Chances are Apple will just offer the 4.7" 6 as the mid-tier phone as-is, the way they used to do it. Maybe offer it in different colors than the 6S to distinguish them. Or maybe they offer the 5S with the updated 6 features at the $99 price point, and offer the 6 for $149?
First, I have no intention of taking the sucker deal of "here's your free phone". Buying unlocked with maximum memory is the only option I would consider. Second, you may be right that Apple might slack off and fail to ramp up ApplePay as fast as possible. That would be fine if there were no competitors waiting for Apple to drop the ball. I certainly don't know if the Apple Watch will soar or flop. But depending on iPhone owners to spend $500 - $1,000+ to access a feature that benefits Apple (and their customers) is problematic. Of course all these issues have probably been settled and we will just have to wait for summer or early fall to see which argument prevailed. I am certainly more optimistic about my 4" iPhone being an option.
The WSJ is really pretty good. But Cook himself said that they lowered production of the 5C and raised production of the 5S. Looking at the MSRP you can figure out an approximate percentage of these. In addition there are ways to see what retailers are selling. All of these organizations have an in with retailers, suppliers, etc. The assumption of 60% for the 5S, 30% 5C, and 10% for the rest seems about right.
In recent years, Apple has updated its iPhone lineup in September, and it's expected that the company will continue that trend this fall.
It's already autumn (fall) in the southern hemisphere. Does that mean we get new iPhones a full 6 months sooner than the rest of the world?
No; he's referring to autumn in the Northern hemisphere, not down under.
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Agreed, the pastel colours are truly awful. Though I'm not in the market for one I would like to see a what they look like in the deep blue, scarlet and orange hues of the iPod nano days.
Do you mean black? Or do you mean gold?
Ah, so kinda like analyst guesstimates then
But a well-connected analyst's guesses are law on this site.
how could they possibly call a rebaged 5S an iPhone6C?
Do you seriously think just a faster A9+force touch will be enough for people to shell out $100 for an identical 6S instead of the 6? I don't think so.
There is a ton of proof that the older models were hurting the top tier. This happenned big time with the iPhone5. A ton of people opted for the 4S instead and that can be seen by the average selling price and margins.
1. Easily
2. Obviously
3. None - totally circumstantial and poorly correlated evidence - likely merely coincidental with a significant evolution in the Apple product mix (many more ipads sold with much lower margins including the Mini), slowing iphone growth, etc. The 5 was significantly more expensive to make than the 4S (legacy 4 shell) so margins reduced, etc. etc. etc.
Not so hard. ;-)
5C case is thicker then the iPhone 6/6+!
I see no reason for Apple
still does not explain the lower price per unit for the iPhone5.
Do you want to make a bet?
If Apple sells a METAL iPhone6 as its mid-range phone for $99 I'll ban myself for 1 month. If they don't you ban yourself.
Iphone 5 never had a lower price point than any other top-tier iphone... in fact when it was released, the iPhone ASP went up for Q1FY2013! Only in later FY2013 quarters did it go down and that seems to be due to a growing international mix (mostly without subsidy) and specifically in China where Apple did not have a competitive LTE product until the 5S/5C.
As to the bet... you're on... no-one will notice if I'm not around and if I win, it's only upside for the community ;-)
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Do you mean black? Or do you mean gold?
Black gold... Texas tea...
...well the next thing you know ol' Jed's a millionaire, the kin-folk said "Jed, move away from there" said, "California is the place you oughta be" so they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly. Hills, that is. Swimming pools, movie stars...
A song?
I kinda like the feel of the 5C plastic. Would be good to add some other colors, like black and/or gray.
Do you mean black? Or do you mean gold?
Black gold... Texas tea...
...well the next thing you know ol' Jed's a millionaire, the kin-folk said "Jed, move away from there" said, "California is the place you oughta be" so they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly. Hills, that is. Swimming pools, movie stars...
A song?
Yep. Theme song for the Beverly Hillbillies. Classic American sitcom from the sixties. I see you're not in USA, but I've seen re-runs outside of USA. I think it's probably still being shown somewhere on the planet at any given moment. Anyway, any time someone says black gold, I can't help but think of that theme song...
I see no reason for Apple
still does not explain the lower price per unit for the iPhone5.
Do you want to make a bet?
If Apple sells a METAL iPhone6 as its mid-range phone for $99 I'll ban myself for 1 month. If they don't you ban yourself.
I'll bet you on it: iPhone 6 will not be discontinued but dropped to 2nd tier for $99 cheaper. Force Touch and better CPU/GPU, RAM would worth the upgrade. So, my prediction will stay at:
6+S $299
6S $199/may 6+ stays too at this price.
6 $99
5S or rebadged 5S $0.
All subsidized prices.