A very false narrative: Apple Watch and the future of wearables

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  • Reply 21 of 35
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    I think Apple is doing a very nice job overall. I have a number of Apple products and do not see moving away from iOS in the near future. 

    Apple does an outstanding job with hardware. However, I do not sport an Apple Watch on my wrist. It is not an Android one either. It is the Samsung Gear S3 frontier. The main reason is the integrated modem allowing the watch to make calls without a smartphone. 

    Microsoft has never been good at hardware. Google is even worse. Samsung is an entirely different beast. Those guys are very good at hardware. As good as or even better than Apple, the Note 7 debaucle notwithstanding. 

    Samsung isn't good at software, but they are quite capable. They are, however, achieving market dominance in certain critical components and could easily become dominant in several areas. Their OLED dominance is going to be very hard to overcome. Apple has a chance to do so if they provide substantial investment capital to LG. No other manufacturer at this point is capable of catching them and even then it will take a massive effort by LG to do so. Samsung is about to move into dominance in NAND and among the leaders in CPU fabrication technology. Samsung's own mobile CPUs are better than everyone outside of Apple's. 

    While people were arguing over the superiority of conventional LCD panels on these very boards, I was advocating for Apple to make a strong move into OLED technology, partnering with LG. Apple failed to do so. And now that they are compelled to make the move, the ONLY manufacturer with the capacity to meet Apple's demands now is Samsung. At least at the volumes Apple operates, Samsung will sell its components. However, it if comes down between Samsung mobile and Apple, well the fruit company will likely lose. The effect right now, however, is that Apple and Samsung are going to cut off access to OLED panels to the rest of the industry. At least to anyone not named LG who builds their own also, albeit at much smaller volumes. Google will be putting LCD panels back on the Pixel. With greater power consumption requirements, smaller batteries, lower contrast and inflexible screens. Foldable screens are coming and they are no gimmick. The first ones will be coming to Samsung devices. And very likely won't be running Android. Apple will likely have access to them. The rest of the industry will be left high and dry. 

    Those Chinese Android OEMs will have nothing but low price to compete. Google will go into a panic as Samsung takes total control of the second major mobile OS. Apple itself will find competing with Samsung far more difficult. 

    Cook had better move fast. Either start investing more seriously in the technology or partnering up with Samsung in forming a much deeper relationship. Samsung is on the verge of routing the rest of the industry in NAND technology also. Samsung's mass produced consumer SSDs are the best in the industry period. Toshiba based drives command similar prices for an inferior product. Micron's are much more costly and sandisk isn't particularly reliable. 

    I am an Apple fan. I do like the company's nicely built products, the inherent security and their philosophy with respect to privacy. However, most don't care. They care about the bells and whistles. And Samsung will be delivering such in spades. It will be very difficult to compete with a device that fits in a pocket and folds out into a 12 or 15 inch screen as needed even if running Tizen with poor security. Windows is Swiss cheese when it comes to security yet it still achieved market dominance. 

    Samsung has the best display technology on the planet period. Their dominance of display technology will be even more complete than Intel in CPUs. It is hard to see anyone catching them. 

    What I would like to understand is why Cook did not see this?!? Apple is safe in the near term. Samsung is going destroy Google in mobile in the next 3 to 5 years. In another decade, Samsung may dominate all of mobile computing. Samsung can duplicate Google services. Samsung pay is already far better than Android Pay. I have used Samsung pay on the Gear S3 though with trepidation. Android pay is a joke. 

    Let's see how well Google duplicates Samsung's prowess in building cutting edge components. At least Apple has great hardware expertise. However, Samsung has the upper hand in at least two critical components. Without NAND and without displays, the smartphone doesn't exist. Apple can buy out Toshiba's memory operations. But there aren't any companies outside of Samsung and LG capable of building large quantities of OLED panels and Samsung is now nearly a generation ahead of LG. 

    In the end there will likely be two and perhaps one dominant player. Samsung will be one of them. Apple may stay competitive. The rest of the industry is in real trouble. 
    Guess you didn't read the articles here this week about Apples investment in mLED technology. Too busy getting excited about Samsung I suppose. 
    tmaywatto_cobrapropodfastasleepcornchip
  • Reply 22 of 35
    I think...

    China is investing massively in OLED and is widely expected to blow past Korea. 
    Apple is reportedly working with BOE in addition to its existing LG partnership for Apple Watch screens. 

    http://www.ledinside.com/news/2016/11/emerging_chinese_manufacturers_in_the_oled_market_to_disrupt_korean_monopoly

    Samsung is currently doing well selling components. If it loses its biggest client that would end the gravy train. 
    watto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 23 of 35
    rezwits said:
    Dude the Apple Watch is so ridiculously great it's not even, no it IS FUNNY. Why? Because so many Android and Windows "fan boys" resist and tell themselves they don't want to wear a watch! If they had something EVEN CLOSE to an Watch they would be wearing them. The Watch is amazing in the areas of development, design, manufacturing, and distribution, hands down. And honestly now that there were or still are models that are $199 and even $99 for Gen 1 sales, I see so many...KEEP DOMINATING!!!
    Funny that I have yet to see one Apple watch in the wild. I saw one Android thing once but that is it. You obviously live in what Apple haters call 'Fanboi heaven'.
    Here in France (where I am travelling at the moment) it is rare to see an iPhone. I saw one about 5 days ago. One member of a Dutch family on holiday had an old 5S. The rest all had Samsung or Sony devices. Samsung seems to rule here in the middle of France (near Valence). Last night at the Hotel bar, my phone rang and I got some looks from the others. After the call ended, I was asked why I used such an odd phone. One person hadn't seen an iPhone in years. Yet they all admired my 2015 15in MBP. Apple it seems has more brand recognition with MacBooks here than phones..
    Not a scientific study by any means but personal experience.
    cornchip
  • Reply 24 of 35
    akamine_jrakamine_jr Posts: 11unconfirmed, member
    Well. After much thinking and researching, I bought an Apple Watch. The thinking took me to realize some points: I can use it to glance at notifications without having to grab my iPhone every 10 minutes in my workplace. It can also do a very basic watch-thing: show me hours at  places and situations where there are no displays available (strangely at my gym). Third, it will be an useful tool during my workouts. Researching took me reading pros and cons about Apple Watch. I realized most people love their Watch, for being useful, practical and a handsome piece of modern jewelry. I have seen lawyers (I am a legal assistant in Brazil), judges, people at the gym wearing Apple Watches. I am sure I will be pleased and it will be worthy every dollar I paid for it. Must arrive today noon or next Monday. 
    edited April 2017 watto_cobraGeorgeBMacbrucemc
  • Reply 25 of 35
    haarhaar Posts: 563member
    Don't know how recently he got it, but I noticed a couple of episodes ago (I catch up a day later here in France) that Stephen Colbert in The Late Show is sporting a black Apple Watch on his left wrist. It's rather prominent as he often keeps his right hand in his pocket and waves the other around for the audience.
    Sept 2015? 



    not while doing his Trump  impression... 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 35

    Microsoft's "staking to where the puck was" previously resulted in its inability to sell copies of Apple's iPod, a failure to sell Windows Phones at the height of the smartphone boom and its wearables flop known as Microsoft Band.

    So pundits: please stop equating Surface PCs with landing on the Moon and stop suggesting Apple Watch was a big waste of time.
    Shouldn't that be steaking   :o

    Actually it should be skating :)
    Scatting?  Tasking?  Casting?

  • Reply 27 of 35
    brakkenbrakken Posts: 687member
    Excellent series - have thoroughly enjoyed reading these, as per usual. I'm wondering, considering the state of the industry right now: the only option I can see for another integrated company is MS provides the OS tailored to SS's hardware and bolstered by Goog's services. Butt I'm sure all three would go out of business before they ever turned a profit - haha!
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 35
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,066member
    This article was a little disappointing.  Still obsessed with the Surface.   Nothing about the failure of Pebble or the Microsoft Band.   Nothing about how Android Wear out first but seems to have disappeared.   You just don't hear anything more Android watches... it's like they have given up now that the Series 2 is out.  And what about the hideousness of the Samsung gear watches. :s

    How long tillFibBit starts shrinking as the wearable for android users?  Which Swiss watch makers will go out of business as Apple eats up the profits?
    cornchip
  • Reply 29 of 35
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,066member
    haar said:
    Don't know how recently he got it, but I noticed a couple of episodes ago (I catch up a day later here in France) that Stephen Colbert in The Late Show is sporting a black Apple Watch on his left wrist. It's rather prominent as he often keeps his right hand in his pocket and waves the other around for the audience.
    Sept 2015? 



    not while doing his Trump  impression... 
    Siri is the Cement shoe that drags many Apple products down.   Would be interested in the watch but it does seem like the watch is one of those places where you expect to need Siri to work and be useful.   So I am waiting.     But I expect the Apple watch to be an incredible product in 3 or 4 years.( is very good now)
  • Reply 30 of 35
    IDC and the like produce their contorted numbers because they're part of a different business model that competes with Apple’s. Apple does integrated systems. Microsoft, Samsung, Google, Windows PC vendors, Android phone vendors, et al produce components that the customer integrates. The only significant exception is the cellphone networks which Apple has not yet found a way to sideline. (I look forward to when they do - and Apple quality phone contract would be a relief!) Apple isn’t a customer for the tech market research companies, so they produce what the people who pay their bills want - apparently trashing a much more successful business model and product family. Wall Street also gets this wrong, hence the ever too-low stock price. They insist on rating Apple as a hardware vendor, vulnerable to hardware commoditisation. They don’t know the business well enough to recognise that Apple customers buy capability, not hardware. So, the 'industry gurus’ consistently trash Apple products and the ‘financial wizards’ consistently under-rate a remarkably successful company and business model with an extremely bright future. No wonder so many people don’t understand why Apple is so successful and will continue to be so.
    edited April 2017 brucemcwatto_cobracornchip
  • Reply 31 of 35
    mrboba1mrboba1 Posts: 276member
    rezwits said:
    Dude the Apple Watch is so ridiculously great it's not even, no it IS FUNNY. Why? Because so many Android and Windows "fan boys" resist and tell themselves they don't want to wear a watch! If they had something EVEN CLOSE to an Watch they would be wearing them. The Watch is amazing in the areas of development, design, manufacturing, and distribution, hands down. And honestly now that there were or still are models that are $199 and even $99 for Gen 1 sales, I see so many...KEEP DOMINATING!!!
    Funny that I have yet to see one Apple watch in the wild. I saw one Android thing once but that is it. You obviously live in what Apple haters call 'Fanboi heaven'.
    Here in France (where I am travelling at the moment) it is rare to see an iPhone. I saw one about 5 days ago. One member of a Dutch family on holiday had an old 5S. The rest all had Samsung or Sony devices. Samsung seems to rule here in the middle of France (near Valence). Last night at the Hotel bar, my phone rang and I got some looks from the others. After the call ended, I was asked why I used such an odd phone. One person hadn't seen an iPhone in years. Yet they all admired my 2015 15in MBP. Apple it seems has more brand recognition with MacBooks here than phones..
    Not a scientific study by any means but personal experience.
    Well, my worthless anecdotal evidence will counter your worthless anecdotal evidence. I have about 5-10 friends that I converse with semi-regularly that has an Android, the rest (25 or so) have iPhones (blue bubble vs green). Yesterday, I saw another new AppleWatch on someone(friend) and I have noticed dozens "in the wild" in the past few months. I have also seen just a couple other "smartwatches" but I don't know what brand they were.

    If people are remarking about your "odd phone" they obviously haven't seen ANY of the flagship phones - or even some lower tier - as they all look at least somewhat similar.
    watto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 32 of 35
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,072member
    Last night at the Hotel bar, my phone rang and I got some looks from the others. After the call ended, I was asked why I used such an odd phone. One person hadn't seen an iPhone in years.
    Yeah right. People asked you why you used "such an odd phone" when using an iPhone which essentially looks like every other phone out there? Sure.
  • Reply 33 of 35
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,072member

    k2kw said:
    haar said:
    Don't know how recently he got it, but I noticed a couple of episodes ago (I catch up a day later here in France) that Stephen Colbert in The Late Show is sporting a black Apple Watch on his left wrist. It's rather prominent as he often keeps his right hand in his pocket and waves the other around for the audience.
    Sept 2015? 



    not while doing his Trump  impression... 
    Siri is the Cement shoe that drags many Apple products down.   Would be interested in the watch but it does seem like the watch is one of those places where you expect to need Siri to work and be useful.   So I am waiting.     But I expect the Apple watch to be an incredible product in 3 or 4 years.( is very good now)
    For me, Siri on the Watch works generally better than on my iPhone/iPad/Mac. I use it alllll the time and with very few problems. 
  • Reply 34 of 35
    "New research authored by J.D Power on Surface and iPad buyers noted that there was no statistical difference found in the satisfaction users reported between the much more expensive, full Windows experience of Surface and the stripped down iOS simplicity of iPad".

    Or put another way, Microsoft was number one.


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