Apple's Chinese wind power partner linked to Uyghur forced labor programs

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  • Reply 81 of 143
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,453member
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.
    George can tell the elephant story. 
    George would certainly fail at retelling elephant story.
  • Reply 82 of 143
    waveparticlewaveparticle Posts: 1,497member
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.
    George can tell the elephant story. 
    George would certainly fail at retelling elephant story.
    Can you tell him? How many elephants?
  • Reply 83 of 143
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.

    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9

    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 



    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
  • Reply 84 of 143
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.

    The fact is:   I get a chuckle out of you deluded China haters having hissy fits when your propaganda is challenged.

    And, besides, I hate delusion - the kind of hate filled delusion you are under.  The truth will set you free.

    You know that what you spiel is bullshit.  It is why you are so defensive of it.  You can't let a chink or a crack develop in your false story that:  "China is the root of all evil"
  • Reply 85 of 143
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.
    George can tell the elephant story. 
    George would certainly fail at retelling elephant story.
    Can you tell him? How many elephants?

    It's a cute, even an interesting story.   But I find this one far more interesting:   The U.S. banned China from its so called "International Space Station" (so much for "international"!).  That forced China into building its own -- which is coming on line just as the American station is at the end of its life.   China is expected to open their station to international visits and research.   I wonder if they will let the U.S. in?   Would you?

    China space station: Shenzhou-12 delivers first crew to Tianhe module


    Rocket carrying the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft and three astronauts takes off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center

    Astronauts


  • Reply 86 of 143
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,453member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The problem that I have with your POV, is that China hasn't provided similar analysis into how many people that had blood tests in October, November, and December, of 2019, and also tested positive for Covid19 in later analysis.

    You seem to be attempting, again, to state that Covid might have originated within the U.S., and again, the timelines don't show that.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-06-15/more-evidence-coronavirus-in-us-christmas-2019

    "A CDC-led study published in December that analyzed 7,000 samples from American Red Cross blood donations suggested that the coronavirus infected some Americans as early as the middle of December 2019."

    The problem that I have with your POV, is that China hasn't provided similar analysis into how many people that had blood tests in October, November, and December, of 2019, also tested positive for Covid19 in later analysis.

    But of course, there is the part about when Covid19 would have been circulating earlier than December in China;

    https://health.ucsd.edu/news/releases/Pages/2021-03-18-novel-coronavirus-circulated-undetected-months-before-first-covid-19-cases-in-wuhan-china.aspx


    "Using molecular dating tools and epidemiological simulations, researchers at University of California San Diego School of Medicine, with colleagues at the University of Arizona and Illumina, Inc., estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was likely circulating undetected for at most two months before the first human cases of COVID-19 were described in Wuhan, China in late-December 2019.

    Writing in the March 18, 2021 online issue of Science , they also note that their simulations suggest that the mutating virus dies out naturally more than three-quarters of the time without causing an epidemic.

    “Our study was designed to answer the question of how long could SARS-CoV-2 have circulated in China before it was discovered,” said senior author Joel O. Wertheim, PhD, associate professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine.

    “To answer this question, we combined three important pieces of information: a detailed understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan before the lockdown, the genetic diversity of the virus in China and reports of the earliest cases of COVID-19 in China. By combining these disparate lines of evidence, we were able to put an upper limit of mid-October 2019 for when SARS-CoV-2 started circulating in Hubei province.”


    So what do we know;


    Ex post facto, there were individuals within the U.S. that tested positive for Covid19 as early as mid December, and;


    Covid19 was likely circulating in China as early as mid October, a difference in two months on the timeline.

    This is the part where China provides the rest of the world with that data.
    edited June 2021
  • Reply 87 of 143
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,453member
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.
    George can tell the elephant story. 
    George would certainly fail at retelling elephant story.
    Can you tell him? How many elephants?

    It's a cute, even an interesting story.   But I find this one far more interesting:   The U.S. banned China from its so called "International Space Station" (so much for "international"!).  That forced China into building its own -- which is coming on line just as the American station is at the end of its life.   China is expected to open their station to international visits and research.   I wonder if they will let the U.S. in?   Would you?

    China space station: Shenzhou-12 delivers first crew to Tianhe module


    Rocket carrying the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft and three astronauts takes off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center

    Astronauts


    Again, no link to why the U.S. banned China's participation in the ISS;

    https://www.labroots.com/trending/space/16798/china-banned-international-space-station

    "The International Space Station is just that – a place where international space agencies can work together in an effort to accomplish common goals: better understanding outer space and how it impacts various processes, sciences, and the likes.

    More than a dozen different countries have visited the International Space Station since the first components reached outer space, including Russia, which boasts one of the most capable space agencies besides the United States. China, on the other hand, isn’t one of them. Despite its interests in collaborating on the International Space Station, China was officially barred from visiting by the United States in 2011.

    Initially, China’s five-year-old space agency was viewed as too young and inexperienced to offer any useful contributions to the International Space Station. Soon after the Chinese developed their own space stations and sent astronauts to space to visit them, it became clear that this wasn’t the case.

    Later, trust issues would become the source of the United States’ unwillingness to work with China on the International Space Station. Two matters of distrust, including the use of an anti-satellite weapon and the hacking of Jet Propulsion Laboratory intellectual property, purportedly fueled a bill passed in 2011 to ban China from the International Space Station.

    Even today, China isn’t allowed to visit the International Space Station, but other space agencies apart form NASA have expressed how they wouldn’t mind having China onboard. After all, it’s international collaboration that conceived the International Space Station in the first place, and with more brilliant minds in outer space, humanity could spring forward into the next era of technological advancements in space."


    The anti-satellite test;

    https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf

    "The Space Debris Created by the Test

    The KKV collided with the FY-1C at a relative velocity of over 32,400 km/hr. Although there were no explosives on board the KKV, the force of the impact completely destroyed the satellite. In hypervelocity impacts such as this ASAT test, normally solid objects behave like liquids. Thus, the FY-1C and KKV effectively passed through each other, and the resulting cloud of debris fragments from each object continued largely in the same direction and velocity as before.

    Within minutes after the collision, the debris cloud started to spread around the satellite’s original orbit. Ten days after the ASAT test, the debris had spread throughout the entire orbit, resulting in a “ring” of debris around the Earth. Three years after the test, the debris has spread out even more, effectively covering much of LEO.

    As of mid-September, 2010, the U.S. military’s Space Surveillance Network (SSN) has tracked a total of 3,037 pieces of debris from this event, 97% of which have remained in orbit.Scientists estimate more than 32,000 smaller pieces from the event are currently untracked. The debris from the destruction of the FY-1C currently spreads from altitude as low as 175 km and as high as 3,600 km.

    This is the largest debris cloud ever generated by a single event in orbit.

    The Impact of the Test Debris on Operational Satellites

    According to Celestrak, on January 22, 2007, there were 2,864 active or inactive satellites in Earth orbit with known positional data.Of these, 1,899 pass through the regime now affected by the debris from the Chinese ASAT test—fully two-thirds of all payloads in Earth orbit.The first acknowledged maneuver to avoid a piece of debris from the Chinese ASAT test occurred on June 22, 2007, when flight controllers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center briefly fired the thrusters on their TERRA satellite to avoid a seven percent chance of being struck the following day.8

    On October 10, 2007, a detailed analysis of the FY-1C debris being tracked predicted that just over six percent of the debris (136 pieces) will have reentered the Earth’s atmosphere by 2017 and 79 percent will still remain in orbit until about the year 2108.7

    Fuck China for that.


    So you can now return to your regularly scheduled kissing of Xi's ass.

    edited June 2021 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 88 of 143
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.

    The fact is:   I get a chuckle out of you deluded China haters having hissy fits when your propaganda is challenged.

    And, besides, I hate delusion - the kind of hate filled delusion you are under.  The truth will set you free.

    You know that what you spiel is bullshit.  It is why you are so defensive of it.  You can't let a chink or a crack develop in your false story that:  "China is the root of all evil"
    If you truly believe that the truth will set us free, then show us where this truth is.  GIVE US A SOURCE.

    That you haven't done this despite being asked repeatedly says everything.  You're a phoney.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 89 of 143
    waveparticlewaveparticle Posts: 1,497member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
  • Reply 90 of 143
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
  • Reply 91 of 143
    waveparticlewaveparticle Posts: 1,497member
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
    The HIV outbreak shows that the place that happens does not necessarily be the origin. 
  • Reply 92 of 143
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The problem that I have with your POV, is that China hasn't provided similar analysis into how many people that had blood tests in October, November, and December, of 2019, and also tested positive for Covid19 in later analysis.

    You seem to be attempting, again, to state that Covid might have originated within the U.S., and again, the timelines don't show that.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-06-15/more-evidence-coronavirus-in-us-christmas-2019

    "A CDC-led study published in December that analyzed 7,000 samples from American Red Cross blood donations suggested that the coronavirus infected some Americans as early as the middle of December 2019."

    The problem that I have with your POV, is that China hasn't provided similar analysis into how many people that had blood tests in October, November, and December, of 2019, also tested positive for Covid19 in later analysis.

    But of course, there is the part about when Covid19 would have been circulating earlier than December in China;

    https://health.ucsd.edu/news/releases/Pages/2021-03-18-novel-coronavirus-circulated-undetected-months-before-first-covid-19-cases-in-wuhan-china.aspx


    "Using molecular dating tools and epidemiological simulations, researchers at University of California San Diego School of Medicine, with colleagues at the University of Arizona and Illumina, Inc., estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was likely circulating undetected for at most two months before the first human cases of COVID-19 were described in Wuhan, China in late-December 2019.

    Writing in the March 18, 2021 online issue of Science , they also note that their simulations suggest that the mutating virus dies out naturally more than three-quarters of the time without causing an epidemic.

    “Our study was designed to answer the question of how long could SARS-CoV-2 have circulated in China before it was discovered,” said senior author Joel O. Wertheim, PhD, associate professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine.

    “To answer this question, we combined three important pieces of information: a detailed understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan before the lockdown, the genetic diversity of the virus in China and reports of the earliest cases of COVID-19 in China. By combining these disparate lines of evidence, we were able to put an upper limit of mid-October 2019 for when SARS-CoV-2 started circulating in Hubei province.”


    So what do we know;


    Ex post facto, there were individuals within the U.S. that tested positive for Covid19 as early as mid December, and;


    Covid19 was likely circulating in China as early as mid October, a difference in two months on the timeline.

    This is the part where China provides the rest of the world with that data.

    LOL....  So you ate equating speculation with fact in order to blame China.    OK.....

    You're sounding a bit desperate, but then that's all you've ever sounded.
  • Reply 93 of 143
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.
    George can tell the elephant story. 
    George would certainly fail at retelling elephant story.
    Can you tell him? How many elephants?

    It's a cute, even an interesting story.   But I find this one far more interesting:   The U.S. banned China from its so called "International Space Station" (so much for "international"!).  That forced China into building its own -- which is coming on line just as the American station is at the end of its life.   China is expected to open their station to international visits and research.   I wonder if they will let the U.S. in?   Would you?

    China space station: Shenzhou-12 delivers first crew to Tianhe module


    Rocket carrying the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft and three astronauts takes off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center

    Astronauts


    Again, no link to why the U.S. banned China's participation in the ISS;

    https://www.labroots.com/trending/space/16798/china-banned-international-space-station

    "The International Space Station is just that – a place where international space agencies can work together in an effort to accomplish common goals: better understanding outer space and how it impacts various processes, sciences, and the likes.

    More than a dozen different countries have visited the International Space Station since the first components reached outer space, including Russia, which boasts one of the most capable space agencies besides the United States. China, on the other hand, isn’t one of them. Despite its interests in collaborating on the International Space Station, China was officially barred from visiting by the United States in 2011.

    Initially, China’s five-year-old space agency was viewed as too young and inexperienced to offer any useful contributions to the International Space Station. Soon after the Chinese developed their own space stations and sent astronauts to space to visit them, it became clear that this wasn’t the case.

    Later, trust issues would become the source of the United States’ unwillingness to work with China on the International Space Station. Two matters of distrust, including the use of an anti-satellite weapon and the hacking of Jet Propulsion Laboratory intellectual property, purportedly fueled a bill passed in 2011 to ban China from the International Space Station.

    Even today, China isn’t allowed to visit the International Space Station, but other space agencies apart form NASA have expressed how they wouldn’t mind having China onboard. After all, it’s international collaboration that conceived the International Space Station in the first place, and with more brilliant minds in outer space, humanity could spring forward into the next era of technological advancements in space."


    The anti-satellite test;

    https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf

    "The Space Debris Created by the Test

    The KKV collided with the FY-1C at a relative velocity of over 32,400 km/hr. Although there were no explosives on board the KKV, the force of the impact completely destroyed the satellite. In hypervelocity impacts such as this ASAT test, normally solid objects behave like liquids. Thus, the FY-1C and KKV effectively passed through each other, and the resulting cloud of debris fragments from each object continued largely in the same direction and velocity as before.

    Within minutes after the collision, the debris cloud started to spread around the satellite’s original orbit. Ten days after the ASAT test, the debris had spread throughout the entire orbit, resulting in a “ring” of debris around the Earth. Three years after the test, the debris has spread out even more, effectively covering much of LEO.

    As of mid-September, 2010, the U.S. military’s Space Surveillance Network (SSN) has tracked a total of 3,037 pieces of debris from this event, 97% of which have remained in orbit.Scientists estimate more than 32,000 smaller pieces from the event are currently untracked. The debris from the destruction of the FY-1C currently spreads from altitude as low as 175 km and as high as 3,600 km.

    This is the largest debris cloud ever generated by a single event in orbit.

    The Impact of the Test Debris on Operational Satellites

    According to Celestrak, on January 22, 2007, there were 2,864 active or inactive satellites in Earth orbit with known positional data.Of these, 1,899 pass through the regime now affected by the debris from the Chinese ASAT test—fully two-thirds of all payloads in Earth orbit.The first acknowledged maneuver to avoid a piece of debris from the Chinese ASAT test occurred on June 22, 2007, when flight controllers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center briefly fired the thrusters on their TERRA satellite to avoid a seven percent chance of being struck the following day.8

    On October 10, 2007, a detailed analysis of the FY-1C debris being tracked predicted that just over six percent of the debris (136 pieces) will have reentered the Earth’s atmosphere by 2017 and 79 percent will still remain in orbit until about the year 2108.7

    Fuck China for that.


    So you can now return to your regularly scheduled kissing of Xi's ass.

    Again, the U.S. fucked up.   But you blame China.  

  • Reply 94 of 143
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
    The HIV outbreak shows that the place that happens does not necessarily be the origin. 
    Of course not. But if there’s lava in the street then the obvious assumption will be that it’s from the nearby volcano, and evidence is required to prove otherwise.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 95 of 143
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,453member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    Holy smokes George, I can can get that you may have been lead astray or convinced by the news you read, but even in your own warped world if you want to convince us then you're going to have to try.  Tell us something, ANYTHING other than diatribe.

    If you can't do that then you're just another loud mouth on the internet.  A moron.  Please prove me wrong, show me that you have something to back up your words.  An actual fact.  An actual news source.  Just one.
    George can tell the elephant story. 
    George would certainly fail at retelling elephant story.
    Can you tell him? How many elephants?

    It's a cute, even an interesting story.   But I find this one far more interesting:   The U.S. banned China from its so called "International Space Station" (so much for "international"!).  That forced China into building its own -- which is coming on line just as the American station is at the end of its life.   China is expected to open their station to international visits and research.   I wonder if they will let the U.S. in?   Would you?

    China space station: Shenzhou-12 delivers first crew to Tianhe module


    Rocket carrying the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft and three astronauts takes off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center

    Astronauts


    Again, no link to why the U.S. banned China's participation in the ISS;

    https://www.labroots.com/trending/space/16798/china-banned-international-space-station

    "The International Space Station is just that – a place where international space agencies can work together in an effort to accomplish common goals: better understanding outer space and how it impacts various processes, sciences, and the likes.

    More than a dozen different countries have visited the International Space Station since the first components reached outer space, including Russia, which boasts one of the most capable space agencies besides the United States. China, on the other hand, isn’t one of them. Despite its interests in collaborating on the International Space Station, China was officially barred from visiting by the United States in 2011.

    Initially, China’s five-year-old space agency was viewed as too young and inexperienced to offer any useful contributions to the International Space Station. Soon after the Chinese developed their own space stations and sent astronauts to space to visit them, it became clear that this wasn’t the case.

    Later, trust issues would become the source of the United States’ unwillingness to work with China on the International Space Station. Two matters of distrust, including the use of an anti-satellite weapon and the hacking of Jet Propulsion Laboratory intellectual property, purportedly fueled a bill passed in 2011 to ban China from the International Space Station.

    Even today, China isn’t allowed to visit the International Space Station, but other space agencies apart form NASA have expressed how they wouldn’t mind having China onboard. After all, it’s international collaboration that conceived the International Space Station in the first place, and with more brilliant minds in outer space, humanity could spring forward into the next era of technological advancements in space."


    The anti-satellite test;

    https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf

    "The Space Debris Created by the Test

    The KKV collided with the FY-1C at a relative velocity of over 32,400 km/hr. Although there were no explosives on board the KKV, the force of the impact completely destroyed the satellite. In hypervelocity impacts such as this ASAT test, normally solid objects behave like liquids. Thus, the FY-1C and KKV effectively passed through each other, and the resulting cloud of debris fragments from each object continued largely in the same direction and velocity as before.

    Within minutes after the collision, the debris cloud started to spread around the satellite’s original orbit. Ten days after the ASAT test, the debris had spread throughout the entire orbit, resulting in a “ring” of debris around the Earth. Three years after the test, the debris has spread out even more, effectively covering much of LEO.

    As of mid-September, 2010, the U.S. military’s Space Surveillance Network (SSN) has tracked a total of 3,037 pieces of debris from this event, 97% of which have remained in orbit.Scientists estimate more than 32,000 smaller pieces from the event are currently untracked. The debris from the destruction of the FY-1C currently spreads from altitude as low as 175 km and as high as 3,600 km.

    This is the largest debris cloud ever generated by a single event in orbit.

    The Impact of the Test Debris on Operational Satellites

    According to Celestrak, on January 22, 2007, there were 2,864 active or inactive satellites in Earth orbit with known positional data.7 Of these, 1,899 pass through the regime now affected by the debris from the Chinese ASAT test—fully two-thirds of all payloads in Earth orbit.7 The first acknowledged maneuver to avoid a piece of debris from the Chinese ASAT test occurred on June 22, 2007, when flight controllers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center briefly fired the thrusters on their TERRA satellite to avoid a seven percent chance of being struck the following day.8

    On October 10, 2007, a detailed analysis of the FY-1C debris being tracked predicted that just over six percent of the debris (136 pieces) will have reentered the Earth’s atmosphere by 2017 and 79 percent will still remain in orbit until about the year 2108.7

    Fuck China for that.


    So you can now return to your regularly scheduled kissing of Xi's ass.

    Again, the U.S. fucked up.   But you blame China.  

    LOL!

    Your'e cognitive dissonance is showing. since the fuckup is all due to China's actions.

    Hey, aren't those the same fuckers that casually allowed their Long March 5B to reenter earth's atmosphere.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57045058
  • Reply 96 of 143
    waveparticlewaveparticle Posts: 1,497member
    crowley said:
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
    The HIV outbreak shows that the place that happens does not necessarily be the origin. 
    Of course not. But if there’s lava in the street then the obvious assumption will be that it’s from the nearby volcano, and evidence is required to prove otherwise.
    Of course. The truth has to be verified scientifically not politically. The world is very patient waiting for the scientists to find the origin of HIV. Nobody else is entitled to jump to conclusion before science. 
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 97 of 143
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,453member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The problem that I have with your POV, is that China hasn't provided similar analysis into how many people that had blood tests in October, November, and December, of 2019, and also tested positive for Covid19 in later analysis.

    You seem to be attempting, again, to state that Covid might have originated within the U.S., and again, the timelines don't show that.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-06-15/more-evidence-coronavirus-in-us-christmas-2019

    "A CDC-led study published in December that analyzed 7,000 samples from American Red Cross blood donations suggested that the coronavirus infected some Americans as early as the middle of December 2019."

    The problem that I have with your POV, is that China hasn't provided similar analysis into how many people that had blood tests in October, November, and December, of 2019, also tested positive for Covid19 in later analysis.

    But of course, there is the part about when Covid19 would have been circulating earlier than December in China;

    https://health.ucsd.edu/news/releases/Pages/2021-03-18-novel-coronavirus-circulated-undetected-months-before-first-covid-19-cases-in-wuhan-china.aspx


    "Using molecular dating tools and epidemiological simulations, researchers at University of California San Diego School of Medicine, with colleagues at the University of Arizona and Illumina, Inc., estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was likely circulating undetected for at most two months before the first human cases of COVID-19 were described in Wuhan, China in late-December 2019.

    Writing in the March 18, 2021 online issue of Science , they also note that their simulations suggest that the mutating virus dies out naturally more than three-quarters of the time without causing an epidemic.

    “Our study was designed to answer the question of how long could SARS-CoV-2 have circulated in China before it was discovered,” said senior author Joel O. Wertheim, PhD, associate professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine.

    “To answer this question, we combined three important pieces of information: a detailed understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan before the lockdown, the genetic diversity of the virus in China and reports of the earliest cases of COVID-19 in China. By combining these disparate lines of evidence, we were able to put an upper limit of mid-October 2019 for when SARS-CoV-2 started circulating in Hubei province.”


    So what do we know;


    Ex post facto, there were individuals within the U.S. that tested positive for Covid19 as early as mid December, and;


    Covid19 was likely circulating in China as early as mid October, a difference in two months on the timeline.

    This is the part where China provides the rest of the world with that data.

    LOL....  So you ate equating speculation with fact in order to blame China.    OK.....

    You're sounding a bit desperate, but then that's all you've ever sounded.
    Since China is "unable" or "unwilling" to provide patient data from October onward, epidemiologists saw fit to simulate that timeline, and guess what? The origin still comes up in China.

    Science.
  • Reply 98 of 143
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    crowley said:
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
    The HIV outbreak shows that the place that happens does not necessarily be the origin. 
    Of course not. But if there’s lava in the street then the obvious assumption will be that it’s from the nearby volcano, and evidence is required to prove otherwise.
    Of course. The truth has to be verified scientifically not politically. The world is very patient waiting for the scientists to find the origin of HIV. Nobody else is entitled to jump to conclusion before science. 
    The world has also been more than patient in waiting for China to comply with health investigations.  The fact (see George!) that they haven't is inviting people to jump to conclusions.
    muthuk_vanalingamtmay
  • Reply 99 of 143
    waveparticlewaveparticle Posts: 1,497member
    crowley said:
    crowley said:
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
    The HIV outbreak shows that the place that happens does not necessarily be the origin. 
    Of course not. But if there’s lava in the street then the obvious assumption will be that it’s from the nearby volcano, and evidence is required to prove otherwise.
    Of course. The truth has to be verified scientifically not politically. The world is very patient waiting for the scientists to find the origin of HIV. Nobody else is entitled to jump to conclusion before science. 
    The world has also been more than patient in waiting for China to comply with health investigations.  The fact (see George!) that they haven't is inviting people to jump to conclusions.
    The world has to wait until the pandemic is over. China is still focusing its efforts in fighting covid-19. The impatient people has other motives. China knows. Shi, the central figure in WIV just gave an interview with New York Times. Have you seen it? 
  • Reply 100 of 143
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    crowley said:
    crowley said:
    crowley said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    crowley said:
    The possibility of this virus having an origin outside of China is an infinitely small number, and the epidemiological data does not support any origin outside of China. The fact that China spent such a high level of effort in Wuhan and the Huawei province to mitigate the spread of the virus, while the rest of the world was basically unaware of it, is telling.

    It absolutely did not originate in the U.S.
    ...

    Really?  You sure about that?
    Then how did it show up here at the same time that it showed up in China?

    The fact that China identified it and alerted the world to it while it took us a year to identify those earliest cases (using stored blood samples from research studies) doesn't change anything.  As in so many things, they were just better at it than us.

    No, that doesn't mean that it originated here just as it doesn't mean it originated in China.  it could have originated anywhere and traveled to both places - it is a very global world.   The fact that China was the only one to identify it and alert the world does not, in itself, mean that it originated there.

    The U.S. may be right that we need a Phase 2 to better identify where it came from -- but perhaps that phase 2 study should start in the U.S.
    https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

    31 Dec 2019

    Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

    1 January 2020

    WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.

    4  January 2020

    WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province. 

    5 January 2020

    WHO published our first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

    10 January 2020

    WHO issued a comprehensive package of technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time. This guidance was shared with WHO's regional emergency directors to share with WHO representatives in countries. 

    Based on experience with SARS and MERS and known modes of transmission of respiratory viruses, infection and prevention control guidance were published to protect health workers recommending droplet and contact precautions when caring for patients, and airborne precautions for aerosol generating procedures conducted by health workers. 

    12 January 2020

    China publicly shared the genetic sequence of COVID-19. 

    13 January 2020

    Officials confirm a case of COVID-19 in Thailand, the first recorded case outside of China.  

    14 January 2020

    WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens. 


    First case in U.S., as originally reported by the New England Journal of Medicine on Jan 31, 2020

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider."
    He traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan on Jan 15. 
       
    What exactly are you unable to understand about timelines?

    What do not understand?  The part of that timeline you leave out.

    You seem unable to read the link;

    "On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.


    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.



    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9



    It didn't take a year to diagnose that first patient, it took a single day. 

    How you are unable to comprehend that is beyond me. 





    Let me explain it to you again:   the part you left out is that the first cases in the U.S. have now been identified back into December 2019 -- the same time they arose in China.   And, it is likely there were other cases in other countries at the same time.   There's no good way to know where this virus arose -- or even when.

    Sorry if that disrupts your "China is the root of all evil" story.
    The HIV virus outbreak happened in SF in the 80s. But its source is traced tback o Africa. 
    There wasn't an immune-deficiency disease research lab in San Francisco in the 80s that I know of.
    The HIV outbreak shows that the place that happens does not necessarily be the origin. 
    Of course not. But if there’s lava in the street then the obvious assumption will be that it’s from the nearby volcano, and evidence is required to prove otherwise.
    Of course. The truth has to be verified scientifically not politically. The world is very patient waiting for the scientists to find the origin of HIV. Nobody else is entitled to jump to conclusion before science. 
    The world has also been more than patient in waiting for China to comply with health investigations.  The fact (see George!) that they haven't is inviting people to jump to conclusions.
    The world has to wait until the pandemic is over. China is still focusing its efforts in fighting covid-19. The impatient people has other motives. China knows. Shi, the central figure in WIV just gave an interview with New York Times. Have you seen it? 
    Yes.  But she's hardly a reliable source, she has an interest in the lab leak theory being discredited.  And since China is blocking any independent investigation of the lab, it's just a single, compromised opinion. 

    It took a WHO investigation to expose last time (oh yeah, this isn't the first time) a Chinese labs leaked a highly contagious virus (oh my gosh George, another link!)
    edited June 2021 tmay
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