Trump's new China trade deal is still bad for US business & consumers
Trump has signed a trade deal with China that will see it withdraw the rare minerals ban that affects iPhones, though it still leaves US consumers paying far more for imported goods.
Tim Cook and Donald Trump in a meeting at the White House in 2018
Among the responses to Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs, China halted rare earth mineral exports in April 2025. Now according to multiple sources including Reuters, that ban may be lifted.
There are few details so far, and no confirmation of whether all such rare mineral exports will resume. The news broke as Trump casually mentioned "we signed with China yesterday," and officials subsequently revealed that the deal was made earlier in the week.
What is being said repeatedly is that in return for the rare earth minerals, the US will ease its restrictions on Chinese technology. It's believed that this means the US dropping or reducing export constraints on materials such as ethane, which is used in processor manufacture.
"The administration and China agreed to an additional understanding for a framework to implement the Geneva agreement," said a White House official. The official also said that this understanding is "about how we can implement expediting rare earths shipments to the U.S. again."
There is of course also no information all about when shipments may resume, but US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has implied that the US will wait for China to make the first move.
"They're going to deliver rare earths to us," Lutnick said, and then "we'll take down our countermeasures."
Trump has also said that there may be a separate deal coming that would shortly "open up" India.
Lutnick has further said that there will be a series of key trade deals finalized in the next two weeks. He said this is to meet Trump's July 9 deadline to reinstate the higher tariffs he paused in April.
"We're going to do top ten deals, put them in the right category, and then these other countries will fit behind," said Lutnick.
"Those who have deals will have deals, and everybody else that is negotiating with us, they'll get a response from us and then they'll go into that package," he continued. "If people want to come back and negotiate further, they're entitled to, but that tariff rate will be set and off we'll go"
Lutnick did not name any of the claimed ten deals, nor confirm that India was one of them.
What happens next
While any deal between the US and China must be preferable to the volatile impact of the "reciprocal" tariffs, there is too little detail yet to determine if trade tensions will be significantly reduced.
However, China's halting of rare earth minerals was not solely for the import of such materials into the continental US. If it had been, then the chief impact on Apple would be in however much it affected the TSMC operation in Arizona.
What China did, though, was require all buyers to be approved through new licensing regulations. It's not known whether this also affected TSMC in Taiwan, but according to law firm Taylor Wessing, it did have unexpected impacts across the world.
Plus on June 11, 2025, Trump said on social media that the forthcoming deal with China would see the US "getting a total of 55% tariffs." As ever, tariffs are paid by the companies importing goods, never by the providing country as Trump routinely claims.
So if the final deal does include this claimed tariff, Apple and all US companies that import from China will face steeper costs than before. Prior to the start of Trump's "reciprocal" announcement in April, which had nothing to do with tariffs applied by other countries, US companies were paying around 15% in tariffs, and Apple was paying significantly less.
Apple has already announced that it expects to spend $900 million on tariffs in its June quarter. Plus it made many costly changes to its global distribution lines to mitigate as much of the tariff impact as it could, but it remains that higher costs will surely be passed on to consumers.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
But Apple has been "friendly" in terms of their pricing policy.
I think Apple will not be heavily affected by raising prices.
I imagine tariffs will somehow be used to counter his "beautiful bill". The beautiful bill will cut services and programs. Tariffs will make everyday purchases more expensive. Hmmm.
For me, he only gets partial credit for Operation Warp Speed, which was negated by duping his supporters into rejecting vaccines and appointing RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary.
PS. Not shitting into his diaper this morning doesn't count.
They created the problem and now want credit for a partial fix? Where is the actual trade deal? Is China going invest in manufacturing in the U.S.? Nope. Is China going to enter advanced manufacturing technology sharing agreement with the U.S.? Nope. Is China going to address fentanyl imports coming from China to the U.S.? Nope. Are American's going to pay higher taxes for goods? Yep, and that is it. This doesn't even constitute a trade deal. It's a tax increase and that is it.
It isn't just Apple that's being treated unfairly. It's pretty much anyone importing anything into the US. I'm curious to see if the "Trump Phone" ever ships and at what price compared to the current quoted prices, since it's NOT "Made in USA" as was originally stated. The walked that back quickly. It smells like vaporware, but I hope it's not and MAGAts everywhere buy it. Well except that it also means money in Trump's pocket.
What does But Apple has been "friendly" in terms of their pricing policy even mean? You think they're not going to pass on any cost increase to the customer?
"I think Apple will not be heavily affected by raising prices." Huh? You don't think Apple paying almost a $Billion more in tariffs in one quarter isn't heavily affected by rising prices/tariffs? Or do you mean Apple will not be heavily affected, because they'll be raising prices? Either Apple doesn't raise prices and eats the increase costs, they pass them on to customers, or a little of each. You and I have a different definition of "heavily affected'.
If I understand correctly, Apple has not raised their prices since iPhone 11 or 12 (Not even since Covid 19!!).
In contrast to Apple, even Pringles, Milka, Snickers etc. have already raised their prices since Covid 19.
Basically, ALL goods have become more expensive since Covid 19.
I have not seen dramatically increased prices at Apple tbh.
That´s what I mean "Friendly".
If he really wanted to restore manufacturing to the US, he'd fund education to the maximum extent possible. We do not have the manufacturing manpower base or educated populace needed to do this!
He and his party are doing the opposite.
"Things are always in motion" is not a good thing for international trade relations or US businesses that don't know what to expect, or budget for, on a day-to-day basis.
A business deal is not a favorable one if it leaves you in a worse position than when you began. Is this the approach Donald “Taco Friday” Trump advocates for in “The Art of the Deal”? Once again, during the first 172-175 days of this administration, the Chinese and many other global entities are mocking the incompetence of the current administration. We require long-term planning, strategic thinking, and consistent oversight, but we currently lack these qualities.
For instance, consider the proposed US-China deal and the potential release of additional Defense Department funds. This move will not alleviate China’s grip on military-grade rare-earth magnets. Mining and extracting these materials will necessitate long-term planning, substantial financial resources, and extensive supply lines. This endeavor will probably span 16 years across four administrations and require the cooperation of all parties involved, despite their current political differences.
Furthermore, this situation highlights the extent of American infrastructure decay. Have you heard about the new Chinese-built airliner or the high-speed rail system being constructed in Thailand? The European and American responses have been to ignore the issue. This does not imply that all Chinese constructions are inherently superior. Instead, it is the iterative improvements, similar to Apple’s approach, that demonstrate their long range planning. Remember when Korean cars were not well-regarded in the mid-1980s? Today, they are widely praised and no longer elicit laughter.
For reference, the high-speed rail system in Thailand is expected to be completed before California and Nevada.
[Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_Thailand]
Not according to Wall Street, Apple is more doomed than Tesla who is really getting clocked by BYD Worldwide.