I am curious to see what you guys really think: MWNY Prediction Thread.

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  • Reply 81 of 110
    Yeah I can see Steve oogling the shiny bubble chat boxes in ichat, showing us a cool little animation that they use when they pop up. And of course he'll go on and on about iphoto and jaguar.



    Funny though, if they do release a new tower, I don't know how they'd do one of those bake-offs now... <img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" />
  • Reply 82 of 110
    scott f.scott f. Posts: 276member
    [quote]Originally posted by hir:

    <strong>Steve Jobs spends 2 hours talking about Jaguar and iChat. No new hardware is released or updated.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    He's actually GIVING the keynote via iChat from Cupertino.



    Hmmm... how will they get an EmotIcon into a black turtleneck and jeans...?



    :cool:
  • Reply 83 of 110
    zosozoso Posts: 177member
    Ok, let's try to sum up all the rumors...



    Lucida: a new iDevice, hard disk-based like the iPod, FireWire connection, hybrid still/motion, possibly at a medium/low resolution



    Glove: new licensing scheme that's going to hit Microsoft right in their face giving away for free all the OS upgrades that you might need (ok, it was just to make it short)



    iMac: minor speed bump and a price reduction of $ 100 bringing the prices back to the original numbers



    QuickTime 6: firmware update for the iPod and a new revision of iTunes to take advantage of MPEG4, thus allowing 30% more songs to be stored on the Pod's HD



    New Pro Software: given the number of acquisitions Apple mas made in these past months it's likely that we are going to see the introduction of a new (range of) pro video/special effects application(s)



    ...and now the juicy stuff...



    PowerMac: after all the posts and threads about this topic I'd say we have three possibilities:



    1) G4 CPUs @ 1GHz, 1.13GHz, 1.26 GHz DP

    same DDR hack as seen on the Xserve

    GF4MX on all models, Ti as an option, GeF5 optional by September when it'll ship

    no case redesign

    (and I'm personally going to slit my wrists if this is all we get)



    2) New G4 revision (7470?) offering full DDR-266 support, at speeds ranging from 1.13 to 1.53

    GF4MX on all models, Ti as an option, GeF5 optional by September when it'll ship

    minor case redesign/new color scheme (more or less like the transition from the original ElCaptain to the QuickSilver

    (and this is the most likely to happen IMO, maybe with a full case redesign?)



    3) The BS config:

    Scaled-down version of the Power4 (which Apple might actually call G5) offering 64-bit computing on the Mac platform for the first time ever, with speeds starting at 1.33 GHz and all the way up to 1.66 GHz, with a dual processor/dual core model

    True DDR, either 333 or dual-channel 266 (we're gonna need to keep those beasts fed with data, right?)

    A slew of specialized miniDSPs soldered on board, to accomplish MPEG4 compression or (add your favorite Photoshop filer here) coupled with a R300 or NV30 card on the hi-end model

    New case design, maybe similar in some way to the brushed metal appearance of the Xserve

    (not holding my breath though...)



    Well, that's quite a lot for a MacWorld Expo! Would you guys care to share your opinions? How likely are all these rumors to make it to the show?



    C'mon people, start typing!



    ZoSo



    [ 06-19-2002: Message edited by: ZoSo ]</p>
  • Reply 84 of 110
    [quote]Originally posted by ZoSo:

    <strong>Ok, let's try to sum up all the rumors...

    ZoSo



    [ 06-19-2002: Message edited by: ZoSo ]</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Okay, all those sound good. But you left off a few.

    1) New version of Appleworks?

    2) Alliance with some major company?

    3) Creation of an offshoot company?

    4) Introduction of Jaguar? (how did ya miss that?)

    5) 17 inch iMac?

    6) other rumors I forgot, and you forgot, but someone else will remember?



    Just a thought.
  • Reply 85 of 110
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    [quote]Originally posted by ZoSo:

    <strong>1) G4 CPUs @ 1GHz, 1.13GHz, 1.26 GHz DP

    same DDR hack as seen on the Xserve

    GF4MX on all models, Ti as an option, GeF5 optional by September when it'll ship

    no case redesign

    (and I'm personally going to slit my wrists if this is all we get)</strong><hr></blockquote>Even your worst-case slit-your-wrists scenario is too optimistic. A 260Mhz bump in 6 months? That would be unheard of in Apple history. They just started selling Apollos a few months ago. I seriously doubt they'll move to a new chip, and scaling by 26% in just those few months is awfully optimistic.
  • Reply 86 of 110
    sybariticsybaritic Posts: 340member
    [quote]Even your worst-case slit-your-wrists scenario is too optimistic. A 260Mhz bump in 6 months? That would be unheard of in Apple history. They just started selling Apollos a few months ago. I seriously doubt they'll move to a new chip, and scaling by 26% in just those few months is awfully optimistic. <hr></blockquote>



    Probably right, though if there is any time that a large leap is needed, it is now.



    I've waited since February for a Power Mac, and while I'll be slightly disappointed with the so-called hack solution, I'll be buying anyway. I need to get a lot of video work done and I simply can't wait any longer. C'mon Apple. Now. Now. Even now. Very now.



    -------------------------------

    Waiting in Nashvegas
  • Reply 87 of 110
    drewpropsdrewprops Posts: 2,321member
    I'm curious, how many of you AI people are:



    A) going to be at MWNY

    B) going to go to a regional Apple location to watch the satellite feed

    C) going to watch it streaming?



    Everybody wear a funny hat so we spot each other.....I'll wear a paper mache Steve Ballmer.



    BTW, I reallly like Applenut's predictions. The day that Apple gives us a multi-button mouse with the pro-machines is the day that I'll consider them to have started listening to their userbase. Geeez, how hard is that?
  • Reply 88 of 110
    gamblorgamblor Posts: 446member
    [quote]Even your worst-case slit-your-wrists scenario is too optimistic. A 260Mhz bump in 6 months? That would be unheard of in Apple history. They just started selling Apollos a few months ago. I seriously doubt they'll move to a new chip, and scaling by 26% in just those few months is awfully optimistic. <hr></blockquote>



    Don't look at it in terms of raw MHz, look at it in terms of percentages. When Apple went from 550MHz to 733MHz, that was a 33% jump. Hell, even 733 to 867 was an 18% jump. I don't think 26% is too far fetched. In fact, Apple (er, Moto) may be able to make another 33% leap to 1.33GHz.
  • Reply 89 of 110
    kidredkidred Posts: 2,402member
    You forgot D.



    D. Watch it on TechTV
  • Reply 90 of 110
    applenutapplenut Posts: 5,768member
    [quote]Originally posted by drewprops:

    <strong>I'm curious, how many of you AI people are:



    A) going to be at MWNY

    B) going to go to a regional Apple location to watch the satellite feed

    C) going to watch it streaming?

    </strong><hr></blockquote>



    Hopefully I'll be watching from Apple HQ. if they let me in
  • Reply 91 of 110
    kecksykecksy Posts: 1,002member
    I'm betting Apple will suprise the world and announce G5s.



    The performance will blow everything away like the orginal G4 did back in 1999.



    Only this time, the ****ing CPU will scale so we dont have to worry about being stuck at 1.6GHz for 18 months.
  • Reply 92 of 110
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    [quote]Originally posted by Gamblor:

    <strong>Don't look at it in terms of raw MHz, look at it in terms of percentages. When Apple went from 550MHz to 733MHz, that was a 33% jump. Hell, even 733 to 867 was an 18% jump. I don't think 26% is too far fetched. In fact, Apple (er, Moto) may be able to make another 33% leap to 1.33GHz.</strong><hr></blockquote>But they were at 500 for over EIGHTEEN MONTHS before they made that jump.



    And we just got to 1Ghz with a new chip 4 months ago. Sorry, but I think we're staying with Apollo for now, which also means no real DDR FSB. Who knows, maybe they are able to scale these better, and they will get up past 1.2. But I'd be surprised.
  • Reply 93 of 110
    gamblorgamblor Posts: 446member
    [quote]But they were at 500 for over EIGHTEEN MONTHS before they made that jump.<hr></blockquote>



    Yeah? And? In the past 18 months they went from 550MHz to 1GHz. Which period do you think is a better indicator of how Moto will do in the next month-- the last 18 months, or the 18 months prior to that?



    [quote] Sorry, but I think we're staying with Apollo for now, which also means no real DDR FSB. Who knows, maybe they are able to scale these better, and they will get up past 1.2. But I'd be surprised. <hr></blockquote>



    Maybe, but they could also bump the FSB to 166MHz, which would provide some relief. A dual 1.2 or 1.3GHz G4 with 166MHz MPX bus & Xserve style chipset is a possibility that might have a decent speed boost over what's available now. Perhaps we'll even see-- dare I say it-- a 200MHz MPX bus. We'll know in a month.



    Don't be so pessimistic, sour puss.
  • Reply 94 of 110
    junkyard dawgjunkyard dawg Posts: 2,801member
    If Moto migrates the G4 to the 130 nm process, then that should be good for a very large speed bump, easily on the order of 20-30%.



    Also, we know that Moto isn't having any fab problems, since the 1 GHz are shipping as duals, and upgrade companies are offering them.



    My guess for Powermacs is the following:



    Pessimistic: 1.00 GHz, 1.13 GHz, dual 1.20 Ghz.

    Optimistic: 1.00 GHz, 1.2 GHz, dual 1.4 GHz.



    That's a 20% increase in clockspeed, which is in line with recent G4 speedbumps.



    Also, Steve Jobs DID say that Apple would be closing the MHz gap this year. I find it hard to believe he would say that without something in the pipeline. RDF or not, he would be flat out lying if there was nothing to base that statement upon.



    The alternative is that Apple watches their market share dwindle as more and more professionals opt for faster Wintel systems. I cannot believe that Apple has NOTHING planned to stem the tide.
  • Reply 95 of 110
    bartobarto Posts: 2,246member
    Based on new hardware, promotions, press releases, rumors and past performance, here's what I expect.



    eMacs for the $799-$1299 price bracket (Apple likes to keep a minimum standard of performance across the board for compatibility reasons, and the iMac G3 doesn't cut it)



    iMacs for the $1499-$1999 price bracket



    iMacs updated with GeForce 4 MX (considering it has replaced the GeForce 2 MX)



    Power Macs adopt a desktop version of the Xserve motherboard. (The hardware exists and is not that old)



    7455s up to 1.2GHz. Remember, a Motorola spokesperson in an interview (or something) said that the G4 wouldn't be bumped to 130nm until the G5 is released. The 8540, the first (known) G5 to ship is shipping after (?) MacWorld.



    Jaguar Demoed



    Thats it. Stay tuned for Apple's next digital device in October!



    Barto
  • Reply 96 of 110
    bartobarto Posts: 2,246member
    About closing the MHz gap this year: Steve also said that Puma would ship in September. It did... on the 30th of September.



    I am expecting either an Apple-specific G5 (ahh... modularity) or a Power4 derivative sometime later this year.



    Barto
  • Reply 97 of 110
    bartobarto Posts: 2,246member
    [QUOTE]Originally posted by ZoSo:

    <strong>

    Lucida: a new iDevice, hard disk-based like the iPod, FireWire connection, hybrid still/motion, possibly at a medium/low resolution</strong>



    I think the RDF would have been turned on already it this is going to be announced.





    Glove: new licensing scheme that's going to hit Microsoft right in their face giving away for free all the OS upgrades that you might need (ok, it was just to make it short)



    That rumor certainly did sound like a neat idea. Wouldn't be surprised either way.



    iMac: minor speed bump and a price reduction of $ 100 bringing the prices back to the original numbers



    Agreed



    QuickTime 6: firmware update for the iPod and a new revision of iTunes to take advantage of MPEG4, thus allowing 30% more songs to be stored on the Pod's HD



    Is there such a thing as MPEG4 audio? I thought that MPEG4 was video+wrapper, and the default audio codec was something different?



    New Pro Software: given the number of acquisitions Apple mas made in these past months it's likely that we are going to see the introduction of a new (range of) pro video/special effects application(s)



    Doubtful. I would expect these aquisitions to bear fruit later, and not at a MacWorld.



    PowerMac: after all the posts and threads about this topic I'd say we have three possibilities:



    G4 CPUs @ 1GHz, 1.13GHz, 1.26 GHz DP

    same DDR hack as seen on the Xserve

    GF4MX on all models, Ti as an option, GeF5 optional by September when it'll ship

    no case redesign

    (and I'm personally going to slit my wrists if this is all we get)




    GRR! The Xserve is NOT a DDR hack! The CPU doesn't control the RAM, the IC does. Therefore WHATEVER kind of memory the computer uses, IT IS NOT A HACK. The CPU can't use all the bandwidth, but the graphics, PCI cards and e-net can take up the slack!



    I'd expect something around that. And I think slitting your wrists over something as trivial as a computer update would be silly.



    Also, Apple uses whatever graphics card is superior. The GeForce 3 was better than the RADEON, the GeForec 4 Ti better than the Mac 8500. However, the R300 looks good, and considering it was used for the Doom III demo, Apple will probably have that as an option, not the GF5 (or whatever they call it)



    Love,



    Jay and Silent Bob.



    Oops, I mean Barto.
  • Reply 98 of 110
    zosozoso Posts: 177member
    [quote]Originally posted by Barto:

    <strong>Is there such a thing as MPEG4 audio? I thought that MPEG4 was video+wrapper, and the default audio codec was something different?</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Yes, and somebody at xlr8yourmac (a couple of weeks ago) made a comparison of different hi-quality audio formats: IIRC the guy couldn't tell the difference between a 192kbps MP3 file and a 128kbps MPEG4 (and I think he said 96kbps was also acceptable--maybe at the same level of a 160 MP3?). The size difference for the same song encoded in those two formats was more or less 30%. I think it would be really nice if Apple added MPEG4 support to iTunes and the iPod!



    [quote]<strong>GRR! The Xserve is NOT a DDR hack! The CPU doesn't control the RAM, the IC does. Therefore WHATEVER kind of memory the computer uses, IT IS NOT A HACK. The CPU can't use all the bandwidth, but the graphics, PCI cards and e-net can take up the slack!</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Ok, have it your way then (for Chrissake, I think there has been enough discussion on this topic, so we can just call it DDR hack... <img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" /> ). Substitute "DDR hack" in my pessimistic configuration with "same G4 rev, which still can't take advantage of the increased bandwidth provided by DDR266". As for the DMA peripherals taking advantage of the increased bandwidth, I couldn't care less. It's probably a good thing on a server, but with 1 HD, 1 graphics card and an internet connection through airport (that's my average config, and even if you access the net via ethernet I don't think you're going to see any kind of improvement unless we're talking about gigabit LAN) I don't see any kind of advantage. OTOH, a CPU that could actually take advantage of the increased memory bandwidth could add a couple of friggin FPS to DiabloII, thus making it playable at long last on my $ 2,500 TiBook--while I can play the same title smooth as silk on a $ 800 PC... Can I say "GRR!" too?



    ZoSo
  • Reply 99 of 110
    wdegrootwdegroot Posts: 15member
    I predict:



    -iMac G3 dropped (duh)

    -eMac price lowered to $899, maybe moves to 800 mhz, possible improved display (both doubtful).

    -iMac G4 price lowered $200 across line (maybe), moves to either 900 mhz or 1 ghz, GeForce 4MX across line. If Power Mac moves to full DDR motherboard then iMac may get the DDR hack from the Xserve. No new display sizes.

    -iPod 5GB price lowered to $299, 10GB to $399, new ear-phone design with on-cord remote control, possible 15-20GB model.

    -no changes to portable line.

    -Possible updated display line sporting brushed aluminum look from Xserve, lower prices, intro of 19 inch display.

    -demo of Jaquar, maybe released (doubtful).

    -Glove licensing scheme introduced.

    -don't want to speculate on new iDevice or new Power Macs.



    I want to keep my expectations low, but I just can't believe that Apple has been just sitting on their hands these last two years. There's gotta be something huge with the Power Mac in the pipeline.
  • Reply 100 of 110
    mrsparklemrsparkle Posts: 120member
    [quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:

    <strong>My guess for Powermacs is the following:



    Pessimistic: 1.00 GHz, 1.13 GHz, dual 1.20 Ghz.

    Optimistic: 1.00 GHz, 1.2 GHz, dual 1.4 GHz.



    That's a 20% increase in clockspeed, which is in line with recent G4 speedbumps.</strong><hr></blockquote>

    Yes, BUT the situation is different this time. When Steve introduced the 867 and dual 800 he conceded that it wasn't a dual 867 because they couldn't get enough of the faster chips from Motorola. Now they have 1 GHz chips out the Wazoo which says to me it will be more like the 1.4 GHz. It's all about yields.
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