Analyst offers update on iPod nano delays
Apple Computer continues to face transition issues with its next-generation iPod nano digital music player due to architectural changes and may not be ready introduce the device until October, according to one Wall Street analyst.
In a research note released to clients on Monday morning, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu maintained his stance that the new iPod nano -- which he has dubbed the "mini video iPod" -- will miss the Street's consensus view of a July or August introduction.
"We continue to believe that the new iPod nano (aka mini vPod) refreshes are facing transition issues due to an architecture move to an SoC vs. its present 3-chip solution," Wu wrote. "In terms of timing, we continue to believe calendar Q4 is most likely, specifically October and at the earliest, late Q3, meaning the second half of September."
The analyst has also picked up leads independent of AppleInsider, which suggest that Apple will revert back to metal enclosures with the next-generation nano.
"An interesting data point we have picked up on the new nanos is a new magnesium-based casing," he said. "We believe this new casing will improve scratch-resistance, durability, and help lower Apple's support and warranty costs."
Meanwhile, Wu speculates that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is likely to focus his upcoming World Wide Developers Conference keynote exclusively on the Mac, refraining from any iPod related announcements.
Specifically, the analyst expects Jobs to announced that Apple's last two Mac product lines -- Pro desktops and servers -- will be making the move to Intel processors.
"In addition, we anticipate a preview on Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard, its next-generation operating system that will one up Microsoft Vista," he wrote. "With respect to Steve Jobs' track record and element of surprise, we are prepared to see something that no one anticipated."
Wu maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a price target of $75.
In a research note released to clients on Monday morning, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu maintained his stance that the new iPod nano -- which he has dubbed the "mini video iPod" -- will miss the Street's consensus view of a July or August introduction.
"We continue to believe that the new iPod nano (aka mini vPod) refreshes are facing transition issues due to an architecture move to an SoC vs. its present 3-chip solution," Wu wrote. "In terms of timing, we continue to believe calendar Q4 is most likely, specifically October and at the earliest, late Q3, meaning the second half of September."
The analyst has also picked up leads independent of AppleInsider, which suggest that Apple will revert back to metal enclosures with the next-generation nano.
"An interesting data point we have picked up on the new nanos is a new magnesium-based casing," he said. "We believe this new casing will improve scratch-resistance, durability, and help lower Apple's support and warranty costs."
Meanwhile, Wu speculates that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is likely to focus his upcoming World Wide Developers Conference keynote exclusively on the Mac, refraining from any iPod related announcements.
Specifically, the analyst expects Jobs to announced that Apple's last two Mac product lines -- Pro desktops and servers -- will be making the move to Intel processors.
"In addition, we anticipate a preview on Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard, its next-generation operating system that will one up Microsoft Vista," he wrote. "With respect to Steve Jobs' track record and element of surprise, we are prepared to see something that no one anticipated."
Wu maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a price target of $75.
Comments
Originally posted by scotty321
How can it be a delayed product if Apple never announced it? Analysts are STUPID and offer little value to society.
"the new iPod nano ... will miss the Street's consensus view of a July or August introduction"
Investors invest based on their opinion of what will happen to the company over the next couple of quarters, regardless of what the company announces. The consensus view was July/August, which is presumably then what is factored into Apple's current share price. If the nano isn't released until Q4, the risk is higher that revenues won't be met short-term, and that competitors are more likely to "catch up".
It's all about target audience. The target audience for these analysts are not users or geeks, but investors.
Originally posted by Booga
It's all about target audience. The target audience for these analysts are not users or geeks, but investors.
As part of that target audience, I think they mostly do a lousy job. I get better information from AppleInsider.
Originally posted by AppleInsider
"We continue to believe that the new iPod nano (aka mini vPod)...
"Mini vPod"? Sheesh. And this guy expects to get taken seriously??
Originally posted by minderbinder
"Mini vPod"? Sheesh. And this guy expects to get taken seriously??
My thoughts exactly.
Originally posted by scotty321
How can it be a delayed product if Apple never announced it? Analysts are STUPID and offer little value to society.
That's a very good point. I think they mean that Apple have set an internal deadline (say July/August) and they are not going to reach it.
I think this magnesium case could be pretty cool, anything to make them scratch resistant.
See, now I'm an analyst, too. It's that easy.
I wonder what they'll be doing for the 30/60 iPod w/video. I'm curious if they'll keep those polycarbonate or if they'll also change the case design to match it's little brother. Time will tell.
...
Originally posted by josa92
How can it be an expected surprise?
Well ... the arrival of the first Intel Macs back at MWSF in January were an expected surprise. We all knew it was quite likely, but Apple hadn't promised it and the actual models in question were still a surprise.
All Stainless iPod: collector's special!!
Originally posted by AppleInsider
Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard will one up Microsoft Vista
It'll two up it at the very least.
--B
Originally posted by AgNuke1707
So Apple's stock has been falling over the past few weeks based on some dipshit analyst's predictions on a product that Apple hasn't even announced as existing? Absolutely astonishing ...
Not really it's just shows how much hot air there is around apple every now and again the ballon goes down.
Quote:
Amazing. If I were a stock holder, I'd be pissed right now at analysts driving the price of my stock down based on unsubstantiated claims. Remember how all the analysts predicted the awesome iPhone and the Mac Mini Media Center? Shit ... those were hits weren't they?
Well those predictions did what they did to bring the stock up so...
Quote:
They're speculating just as much as we are. Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...
Damn right substitute nuclear engineering for some other job not based on gossip.
These guys are really partially the equivalent of sports journalists or meda pundits - if the people like what they say/the interpretation fits the facts most of the time they will survive - simple as that.
Apple is still the same, just the people who need money on an investment by the next quater have left building!
As for the metal is the new cool - Apple is completely cyclical here. black - White - Aluminum and round we go again. "this seasons iPods are gong to in chique metallic, so fans adjust your clothing accordingly!"
Originally posted by Cubert
I anticipate a preview of Leopard, too, primarily because Apple has FREAKIN' said so!
See, now I'm an analyst, too. It's that easy.
Yeah! You tell 'em!!!
Originally posted by AppleInsider
Meanwhile, Wu speculates that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is likely to focus his upcoming World Wide Developers Conference keynote exclusively on the Mac, refraining from any iPod related announcements.
]
You're kidding... Really? You mean at the world wide DEVELOPERS conference, Jobs is likely to focus on the Mac.
How insightful Mr Wu is.
Originally posted by AgNuke1707
So Apple's stock has been falling over the past few weeks based on some dipshit analyst's predictions on a product that Apple hasn't even announced as existing? Absolutely astonishing ... it's as if the "analysts" expect Apple to follow THEIR upgrade cycle instead of Apple's wow. Amazing. If I were a stock holder, I'd be pissed right now at analysts driving the price of my stock down based on unsubstantiated claims. Remember how all the analysts predicted the awesome iPhone and the Mac Mini Media Center? Shit ... those were hits weren't they? They're speculating just as much as we are. Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...
Kinda demonstrates how little you understand the investor mindset. Did you assume that apple don't meet with analyst and tell them stuff (of course they do, they are a public company). They don't have to announce anything to you. Secondly, as someone noted, stock price is a function of what is expected of a company, not what the company announces. A company can announce record earnings and still have their stock fall (i'm sure you have seen this before). Stock price is not a function of what apple says but what investors expect. If i don't think apple will deliver in july/august (i could give a shit whether apple announced a product or not) and i am thinking of buying stock and to me personally, the stock is now worth 54 bucks instead of 57, why should i pay the higher price?.. cause apple didn't say anything?. Enron didn't say much either and look what happened!!. Should i wait until apple announces they are late before making an educated guess?. How foolish would that be.. as if apple has investors best interest in mind. If apple delivers as expected, then their stock will rise appropriately. Everything works out in the end, don't fret.
Originally posted by solsun
You're kidding... Really? You mean at the world wide DEVELOPERS conference, Jobs is likely to focus on the Mac.
How insightful Mr Wu is.
Actually, not to defend mr WU (i'm sure he makes tons of money and his clients listen to him regardless of what you say) but does apple always focus on mac at the developers conference?. Why is stating that apple would concentrate on mac an obvious statement if they do not always concentrate on mac?. I'm in a toastmasters club.. one of the rules we learn is state the obvious, say why you gonna state the obvious and restate the obvious. What were you expecting him to say?..
"We expect Steve Jobs to be eating an apple at the 45th minute of the 6th hr into the presentation"..
Actually, we all know steve will talk about the mac and also the ipod.. he is merely stating that steve will talk more mac than ipod. If that is obvious, then ok.. why don't you tell us which topic steve will concentrate on after the developers conference?.. saying he will talk about everything is not an answer (of course he would).. i want specifically, which area will he spend the most time. Mr genius, while you at it, give us specific time (like maybe steve will spend 45 minutes on ipod, 30 on mac, etc)..
i eargerly await (with breath held) your insightfull analysis and pin point prediction
Originally posted by AgNuke1707
Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...
Seriously, who needs cross sections anyway
Originally posted by wnurse
Actually, not to defend mr WU (i'm sure he makes tons of money and his clients listen to him regardless of what you say) but does apple always focus on mac at the developers conference?. Why is stating that apple would concentrate on mac an obvious statement if they do not always concentrate on mac?. I'm in a toastmasters club.. one of the rules we learn is state the obvious, say why you gonna state the obvious and restate the obvious. What were you expecting him to say?..
"We expect Steve Jobs to be eating an apple at the 45th minute of the 6th hr into the presentation"..
Actually, we all know steve will talk about the mac and also the ipod.. he is merely stating that steve will talk more mac than ipod. If that is obvious, then ok.. why don't you tell us which topic steve will concentrate on after the developers conference?.. saying he will talk about everything is not an answer (of course he would).. i want specifically, which area will he spend the most time. Mr genius, while you at it, give us specific time (like maybe steve will spend 45 minutes on ipod, 30 on mac, etc)..
i eargerly await (with breath held) your insightfull analysis and pin point prediction
It is obvious because it is a DEVELOPERS conference. DEVELOPERS attend the DEVELOPERS conference to learn about Mac hardware and software technologies that will benefit them in their development of Mac applications.
Other than a brief summary of iPod/iTunes accomplishments, iPods have NEVER been the focus of the WWDC. You can expect new iPod announcements at a MacWorld or a press announcement, but at the developers conference, it is a given that the keynote will be geared toward new Mac/OSX/software announcements.
Common sense, my friend.. Common sense. If the name of the conference doesn't give you a clue as to what the keynote is about, then maybe Apples WWDC page will:
----"The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference is your chance to dive deep into a full range of the Mac OS X technologies, including preview coverage of Mac OS X Leopard. "-----
http://developer.apple.com/wwdc/index.html?homepage