Myth? Who do you suppose you are fooling...? Certainly not me or most here, despite your lies, FUD, and clear distaste for anything Blu-ray. Check the date on your article first off. Your article was released on September 4th, and not to mention clearly doesn't provide a source for their "50,000" number. Now,...check this link...
Notice the date on there genius,...Mr. "I'm always a few steps ahead of you?" Yeah, it's September 15th, alsmost two weeks after this wonderfully full of crap piece (September 4th) you've decided to post here. So again, you're not fooling anyone.
Moreover, I've stated this before about this particular site, but they tend to trail most of their Blu-ray and HD DVD articles with the same paragraph which is one of the most tilted and misleading paragraphs in favor of HD DVD that I've ever read in terms of giving a synopsis of the HD landscape. They make it read as if Sony and Panasonic are the only ones behind the Blu-ray format, and that 230 CE and IT companies worldwide support HD DVD. Uhh huh, no mention of the 170+ companies withing the BDA, no mention that the majority of the 230 CE and IT companies they reference of the DVD forum actually support Blu-ray, no mention of Lionsgate, or Paramount Pictures, or New Line Cinema as far as studio support. What's funny is, is you rag sites like IGN.com and then come back with a credibly suspect site like x-bit labs.
Regardless, even if Toshiba is successfull/lucky enough to sell 200,000 players by years end...how does this compare to the 1,000,000 units that will sell in the form of the PS3 and other standalone players? Answer, it won't, and no matter how you try to spin it, the end result will be the same: Blu-ray will have far deeper market pentration.
Yeah, we all know where you get your "inside knowldedge," but Amir has been wrong most of the time in regards to the HD landscape just like you--I thought BD50s were a pipe dream? I swear I remember seeing you post this.
Furthermore, see this article as far as myths go (ya know the one where Lionsgate has cancelled ALL Blu-ray released for 2006)...
At least keep thinking this, cause reality will dissapoint you. I guess ignorance truly is bliss.
Ahh, always the push for now, now, look now. Someone getting scared? A bit paranoid that Blu-ray will undoubtedly overtake the "now" format of HD DVD...? Looks like it to me, because we all well know that the Weinsteins company has pledged Blu-ray support. It's all over the internet.
These are the facts, you need to deal with them...
"Rank and file consumers" won't pay $500 for an HD DVD player either, just early adopters. I've said this many times, prices will need to go way down before mass consumer adoption is obtained. However, "rank and file consumers" WILL pay $499 for an all-in one game console and Blu-ray movie player--that's the genius of it in my opinion. The trojan horse effect.
4th quarter here is going to be a rude awakening for you here I'm afraid, where you'll see your short lived intertia as you so call put it being trumped by the Blu-ray snowball effect. Furtermore the fact is, consumers will buy products from brands they trust, and let's just say when the choices are Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer (with more to come) vs. Toshiba for this year, you'll be suprised to see those who will go with the better backing and the longer history of being a continually trusted and top-ranked brand.
And where are you getting this over 1 million HD DVD playback devices by the end of Q1 2007? Link please? Or are we just supposed to take your and Amir's "inside knowledge" as fact. Phhhhft, ahahaahaha. Now that's a pipe dream. Are you getting it from the HD DVD add-on? Ya know, those add-ons that are historically failures...do some fact finding of you own there chief and look up Sega. Also, it should be known that there will be around 6 million Blu-ray playback devices by the end of Q1 2007. This is really a no brainer, Toshiba + Microsoft's add-on will not be able to sustain the onslaught from the rest of the entire industry. Pure and simple.
Advantage nobody. Any unbiased observer already has a good idea who will win the format war, assuming of course IF there is a winner and either format becomes more than a niche product; it's the format sponsered by the equipment manufactors who have the deepest pockets and can best sustain the losses for these products over the next three to four years. Anybody have an idea who this might be?
. . . the format sponsered by the equipment manufactors who have the deepest pockets and can best sustain the losses for these products over the next three to four years. Anybody have an idea who this might be?
Well, I can see Sony, where losses on the PS3 have already been accounted for in their business plan, and are somewhat offset by other revenues from the PS3. Otherwise, I don't know about the pocket of Panasonic and Pioneer, who no doubt must make money on their products.
What I find interesting is that Sony and Toshiba are partners with IBM in the Cell processor, but bitter rivals in HD.
Well, I can see Sony, where losses on the PS3 have already been accounted for in their business plan, and are somewhat offset by other revenues from the PS3. Otherwise, I don't know about the pocket of Panasonic and Pioneer, who no doubt must make money on their products.
What I find interesting is that Sony and Toshiba are partners with IBM in the Cell processor, but bitter rivals in HD.
what do you mean offset? the ps3 is going to lose a lot of money for sony, with no telling on when they can possibly turn it into a profit.
what do you mean offset? the ps3 is going to lose a lot of money for sony, with no telling on when they can possibly turn it into a profit.
Hey, read more carefully. I said 'somewhat offset,' meaning their loss is not as great as it would be otherwise. Sony knows they will lose money, just as they did on the PS2, and that certainly did not hurt them in the long run. This is what they decided to do and will do. Sony has no guarantee of success, but if we look at the PS and PS2 we see a pattern. Some competing products came out before Sony. Anyone remember the SEGA Dreamcast, or the 3DO system?
Hey, read more carefully. I said 'somewhat offset,' meaning their loss is not as great as it would be otherwise. Sony knows they will lose money, just as they did on the PS2, and that certainly did not hurt them in the long run. This is what they decided to do and will do. Sony has no guarantee of success, but if we look at the PS and PS2 we see a pattern. Some competing products came out before Sony. Anyone remember the SEGA Dreamcast, or the 3DO system?
yeah but this is a whole new generation, nothing is the same between those years and these upcoming years (the only thing being the same is sony not being the first to the market).
i find this to be one of the biggest problems with people assuming just because sony had a great business plan, and strategy before (overhyping and never delivering) that it automatically means they have one again this time.
looking at how many times they have already revised their position (with the controller, launch dates, price, hdmi,) it seems they are stumbling and scrambling to match their competitors rather than lead the industry.
sega dreamcast was a wonderful system, and for the first year it actually had better games overall than the ps2. BUT like i said before, sony had a great strategy of overhyping their system (remember the graphics they promised ? lmao).
the 3do was insanely overpriced, kind of like the ps3 is now.
I hope this battle ends soon, next year maybe. The presence of both formats is hindering the growth of both. I don't care who wins I just want one standard.
Nice post but let's clarify some things. Your post lists Toshiba as the source and clearly delineates by region. They mention 25k in US homes. The 50k numbers are likely worldwide and with the Euro launch of 2nd generation hardware as well as Japan and US launches of 2nd generation clearly the 200k is reachable. Your whole point seemed to stem around 25k being the total number of shipped HD DVD players and that was a paltry number for studios to warrant going neutral. Clearly this was a bit of FUD on your part.
I'm not going to entertain the post about CE support. That's hearsay from you and frankly it's a pointless area of the argument. IGN is owned by Fox studios. X-Bit labs isn't owned by a studio yet you attempt to kill the messenger if you don't like the message. I can find other links that say the same thing. The endgame here is that your 25k statement was misleading and was easily debunked with more truthfull information.
The next question is how does 200k units compare to a million PS3 players. Very well.
Say you have a million PS3s in homes. How many can you guarantee will
1. Be hooked up to HDTV
2. Be used as a movie player at any significant rate
I'd say you'd be lucky to find a third of PS3 users with the necessary requirements(HDTV) and motivation to buy a lot of movies.
With a million STB HD DVD or Xbox add ons you guarantee a 1:1 relationship of hardware to movies. Playing movies will the the primary goal of HD DVD enabled STB, XBOX add on and HD DVD enabled laptops.
Lionsgate cancelling 2006 movies.
You call that a rebuttal. Look at the release list
Note that Descent is the LAST 2006 title listed and it's not coming to 12/26 and everything else is 2007. For all intents and purposes LG is done for the year.
Genius on Blu-Ray
Did you forget this part
Early next year, Genius will delve into Blu-ray for the first time with ESPN releases, which we speculate to include several of the ESPN original movies. Whether Genius then tackles 'Derailed' and other HD-DVD titles on Blu-ray remains to be seen.
LOL another "not until 2007" scenario. Didn't you say that the 4th quarter was the beginning of "shock and awe" ?? Well clearly you won't see many LG movies and no Weinstein movies. But you WILL see them on HD DVD. Notice a trend here?
Toshiba is a name people know. Microsoft is a name people know. The initial reviews of the Panasonic BD player aren't bad but they aren't good for a $1300 product. People expected more and they can't justify paying $500 more over the Samsung unit. Hell they could buy a Sammy and Toshiba unti for the price of one Panasonic unit.
The 4th qtr isn't going to change anything unless a majority of the American public gets a %20 raise. Blu-Ray is too expensive. I've always said this. Not everyone can have deep pockets like you and spend a kilobuck for a player.
LOL I love the adjectives "onslaught" I'm already reading about people getting ready to return the panny BD player. Best Buy better prepare for the onslaught of open box BD players again.
Here's why the 4th qtr will not go well for Blu-Ray
1. Expensive players- If a $500 HD DVD player wasn't available then consumers would think differently. The PS3 will be HARD to get. You're just not going to walk in to a store with $499 plus tax and walk out with a PS3.
2. Movies- Disney's first launch titles suck, LG is not going to have another title released until after Xmas. Warner still ships more titles on HD DVD. Universal is still rocking out quality movies. Fox has some decent movies coming. Sony has the dumbest choices for BD50....Click and Talledega Nights? WTF?.
2006 will end the same way it started. With Blu-Ray behind.
This all stems from the iSuppli BoM breakdown of the HD-A1 which is a guesstimate at best. I'd bet $100 easily that you couldn't prove that fact that the HD-A1 is subsidized. You'll be a daisy if you do because Toshiba execs have stated that it is not. However rumors persist because people like to take them and run with them like the whole "HD DVD is only 1080i" which stemmed from a poorly written article.
Folks at AVS believe that the HD-A1 was subsidized and we're talking moderators and HD-A1 retailers not fanbois. Given that the A2 will lose 5.1 analog outs and moves to CE chips rather than Intel CPUs I expect the A2s will be profitable at the same price points. I expect the current A1 pricing to be rather short lived: $399 at discounters...$275 for RCA boxes from Walmart. Walmart looks to be pulling out of the HD market as they seem to be clearancing software (both BD and HD-DVD) in some stores.
That's not a good showing for either camp. Fact is the launch for both formats is rather dismal.
For the record I harbor little animosity for Blu-Ray as a format. It's just not the best format and no Blu-Ray fan has been able to refute that with empirical evidence.
The best format is iTunes HD.
Quote:
I figure that by years end there will be a half million HD DVD enabled devices that are designed to play movies. That is in distinct contrast with a game console that is designed for games and just happens to play movies. The 1st generation of players was easily won by HD DVD. The upcoming Sony/Pio/Panny players will sell to enthusiasts but the rank and file consumer isn't going to pay $1000 for a player. That's a fact.
A half million by years end? ROFL. From 50K to 500K in 3 months with virtually no A1 stock in the channel and the A2 still pre-order? The HD-A2 is listing for $499-$459 on the web as pre-order.
The rank and file consumer ain't paying $450 for a DVD (HD or otherwise) player either.
Quote:
Next year we should see $399 for less HD DVD players and more consumers will take note. By the end of Q1 2007 there will be over a million HD DVD playback devices. There WILL be more studios hopping over and it'll be clear that HD DVD isn't going anywhere. The inertia is already there.
Yea right...right now it still looks like DVD-A/SACD scenario to me. DVD-A hit a million player sales in a couple years but it's no rip-roaring success. I don't see either BD or HD-DVD being all that much better.
The next question is how does 200k units compare to a million PS3 players. Very well.
Say you have a million PS3s in homes. How many can you guarantee will
1. Be hooked up to HDTV
2. Be used as a movie player at any significant rate
I'd say you'd be lucky to find a third of PS3 users with the necessary requirements(HDTV) and motivation to buy a lot of movies.
Mmm...1/3 of a million is 333K. I doubt that it will be as high as 1/3 but unless Sony really screws up (and they pretty much have been thus far but I digress) they should have a 1M PS3s for sale in the US by Dec vs your worldwide $200K number.
This Christmas isn't all that critical to Sony in my mind. The PS3 will sell out regardless given the limited number of consoles available in the US. Fanbois will snap them up regardless of price. Its next Christmas that will be an issue...the current pricing is too much for most parents to buy for their kids.
Quote:
With a million STB HD DVD or Xbox add ons you guarantee a 1:1 relationship of hardware to movies. Playing movies will the the primary goal of HD DVD enabled STB, XBOX add on and HD DVD enabled laptops.
Dream on. The Gen 2 Toshibas are still $400+. BD won't do any better except for PS3 sales...and few of those will generate that many movie sales.
Quote:
Here's why the 4th qtr will not go well for Blu-Ray
1. Expensive players- If a $500 HD DVD player wasn't available then consumers would think differently. The PS3 will be HARD to get. You're just not going to walk in to a store with $499 plus tax and walk out with a PS3.
Who cares? There will be 400K-1M of the PS3s in the US. Even assuming crappy adoption rates for BD movies on PS3 machines the market penetration for BD capable players in the US alone will be massive in comparison to HD-DVD.
Quote:
2. Movies- Disney's first launch titles suck, LG is not going to have another title released until after Xmas. Warner still ships more titles on HD DVD. Universal is still rocking out quality movies. Fox has some decent movies coming. Sony has the dumbest choices for BD50....Click and Talledega Nights? WTF?.
Thus far all the movie titles (as a whole) suck IMHO. Oh look...Nacho Libre will be released later this month on HD! Yee ha! So what would be new about dumb HD releases?
Where is SW or LOTR? How about Harry Potter? The december titles look less than thrilling for either camp. Miami Vice? Devil Wears Prada? Come on.
Quote:
2006 will end the same way it started. With Blu-Ray behind.
Only if Sony completely screws its PS3 launch. Possible. If you think its a sure thing you ought to go short Sony stock.
vinea-the ps3 launch isn't totally screwed, but it definitely isn't sitting pretty. if there is the slightest recalls on any of the initial ps3 batch then sony IS SCREWED
vinea-the ps3 launch isn't totally screwed, but it definitely isn't sitting pretty. if there is the slightest recalls on any of the initial ps3 batch then sony IS SCREWED
I doubt a recall would hurt Sony, except in the pocketbook. This race will be decided after the PS3 has been out for a while, but I expect to see an early trend. Yet, that is all it will be at first, just a trend. I wonder whether this thread will still be going six months or a year from now?
I doubt a recall would hurt Sony, except in the pocketbook. This race will be decided after the PS3 has been out for a while, but I expect to see an early trend. Yet, that is all it will be at first, just a trend. I wonder whether this thread will still be going six months or a year from now?
when your rivals will be pushing out about 5 million consoles this fall against your measly million or so then yes a recall would be a devastating blow.
Note that Descent is the LAST 2006 title listed and it's not coming to 12/26 and everything else is 2007. For all intents and purposes LG is done for the year.
Ahh, well, I think the real reason for LG releasing one more title this year and more to come next year has to do with this...(and nothing to do with HD DVD as much as you'd like it to be)
Lionsgate has become the latest studio to jump on the BD-50 bandwagon, announcing their first 50GB dual-layer Blu-ray release with 'The Descent.'
As announced early last week, the cult horror flick will hit Blu-ray on December 26 -- just in time for Christmas, of course -- and day-and-date with the DVD release.
Tech specs include the film's 99-minute Unrated Cut presented in 1080p/MPEG-2 video, plus both an uncompressed PCM 6.1 surround and standard Dolby Digital 5.1 surround tracks.
With double the disc space versus a standard BD-25, single-layer disc, Lionsgate has also packed 'The Descent' with extras, including two audio commentaries, deleted and extended scenes, a documentary, multiple still galleries and trailers.
And in a first for the Blu-ray format, 'The Descent' will also boast exclusive HD content in the form of a new picture-in-picture interactive commentary, which promises to be similar to the "In-Movie Experience" feature currently popular on HD DVD titles.
Lionsgate has set a $39.95 list price for the Blu-ray release.
Yes, I think Lionsgate certainly saw the 50 giggers coming and decided to release on them for the remainder of their titles. Still hoping they are going the way of HD DVD? Keep hoping....
Quote:
Genius on Blu-Ray
Did you forget this part
Early next year, Genius will delve into Blu-ray for the first time with ESPN releases, which we speculate to include several of the ESPN original movies. Whether Genius then tackles 'Derailed' and other HD-DVD titles on Blu-ray remains to be seen.
LOL another "not until 2007" scenario. Didn't you say that the 4th quarter was the beginning of "shock and awe" ?? Well clearly you won't see many LG movies and no Weinstein movies. But you WILL see them on HD DVD. Notice a trend here?
Clearly you WILL NOT see "them" that is more accurately Lionsgate movies on HD DVD. There is no indicator of this whatsoever, despite your desperate rumor mongering. Notice how Descent is on 50 GB, more than likely this is the reason for the postponement of other future Lionsgate releases outside of 2006, not HD DVD, nice try though.
Quote:
Toshiba is a name people know. Microsoft is a name people know. The initial reviews of the Panasonic BD player aren't bad but they aren't good for a $1300 product. People expected more and they can't justify paying $500 more over the Samsung unit. Hell they could buy a Sammy and Toshiba unti for the price of one Panasonic unit.
You left out a part here, Toshiba, sure is a name people know as well as Microsoft. But the key here is are they brands the majority of consumers know AND TRUST from a CE perspective? I'd bet more people know AND trust Sony, Panasonic, and Pioneer moreso than Toshiba and Microsoft in the CE realm. According to Forrester Research's 2005 Technology brand scorecard this appears true...
Sure, this is from 2005, but I believe data like this comes out at the end of the year, so it'll be interesting if any of this data changes much for the year 2006. I doubt it, but we'll see.
And speaking of Forrester Research, they've announced yet again the Blu-ray WILL beat HD DVD...
The A1 could indeed be subsidized but there's no empirical evidence that proves it. iSuppli BoMs are just guestimmate. They could be correct but they could be wrong. I agree with you that the 2nd generation stuff is built for profit. I'm ok with the changes that Toshiba has made.
25K or 50K it's still not that much.
Not it's not but Toshiba is stating 200k by years end and that doesn't include rebadged RCA units or Xbox add ons. If the Videoscan numbers are correct HD DVD enjoys an 11:1 advantage in movie attach vs Blu-Ray. These are relevant datapoints for trajectory that studios will indeed be watching.
The best format is iTunes HD
That is indeed possible. Apple is setting itself up to be a factor here and Walmart and Target are getting a bit worried.
A half million by years end? ROFL
200k Toshiba units
50k RCA units
200k xbox add ons (I've heard estimation of a %10 attach rate meaning closer to 300k)
30k laptops sold with HD DVD
My numbers are conservative if we're talking about the whole HD DVD playback universe.
Quote:
Yea right...right now it still looks like DVD-A/SACD scenario to me. DVD-A hit a million player sales in a couple years but it's no rip-roaring success. I don't see either BD or HD-DVD being all that much better.
Then the problem is with your foresight. DVD-A/SACD were solutions to problems that didn't exist. Consumers weren't asking for 5.1 hirez audio they were asking for lower cost music. Apple provided low cost and easy access with iTunes and the rest is history. Consumers ARE asking for low cost HD movies after they have become acclimated to HD on their HDTV. Totally different markets here.
Quote:
they should have a 1M PS3s for sale in the US by Dec vs your worldwide $200K number.
I'm talking about 200k Toshiba "Branded" product. The overall pie for HD DVD will be over 500k for all players IMO
Quote:
Who cares? There will be 400K-1M of the PS3s in the US. Even assuming crappy adoption rates for BD movies on PS3 machines the market penetration for BD capable players in the US alone will be massive in comparison to HD-DVD.
That means squat for forcasting how many people will buy movies. You're asking for me to place faith in numbers that don't exist. Neither of us is right or wrong here. Insufficient data.
Lionsgate Goes BD-50 with 'Descent'
oops
Tech specs include the film's 99-minute Unrated Cut presented in 1080p/MPEG-2 video, plus both an uncompressed PCM 6.1 surround and standard Dolby Digital 5.1 surround tracks.
Highlighted items are items likely to look good because of the space but take up too much space compared to more efficient technologies like VC-1/AVC and TrueHD. This title will look good but no than it would look on a 30GB HD DVD disc which I'll have next year when LGF moves to HD DVD.
We'll see ...I'm sure you'll be eating crow and making more excuses on the day LGF announces HD DVD support. You'll rebut with silly numbers on studios or ce vendors. I'll remember your "prophetic" comments here. LGF moving to VC-1 is a huge flag. They could have stuck with MPEG or used AVC like Disney has on a title or two. But you're too blind to see that VC-1 means they plan to target both platforms with one encode.
So do you like Ketchup or something more spicy with your crow. I aim to please
So... how's Blu-Ray market doing since the launch?....... All I hear is stuff being delayed here and there...... with still planned and expecting dates for this and that....... BD50 ready, but still see movies in BD25..... Was it all a lie?..... What's the point of having one million BD player in the world, if you still have to watch BD25 titles that will leave bad taste in your mouth. Maybe, we'll soon see 1 million owners bad mouthing Blu-Ray in the near future. Maybe that will end of format war.
AFAIK, one HD-DVD player has been sold to you know who #1, and one Blu-Ray player has been sold to you know who #2.
I'd suggest you two strap on the gloves and duke it out, settle it once and for all, for the rest of us!
I think I'll sit this one out, and LET THE MARKET FORCES DECIDE THIS ONE FOR ME!
But if I was a betting dude, given the PS3, I think I'd know which horse to bet on! But I'm not.
Perhaps when players hit the ~$100 price point, when blank media hits the ~$5 price point, maybe then will be the time to buy, and by then it should have pretty much played itself out!
If anything, all of your bickering has left me to conclude that NEITHER format will gain wide acceptance!
So... how's Blu-Ray market doing since the launch?....... All I hear is stuff being delayed here and there...... with still planned and expecting dates for this and that....... BD50 ready, but still see movies in BD25..... Was it all a lie?..... What's the point of having one million BD player in the world, if you still have to watch BD25 titles that will leave bad taste in your mouth. Maybe, we'll soon see 1 million owners bad mouthing Blu-Ray in the near future. Maybe that will end of format war.
Obviously, you haven't been paying much attention to what has been stated in this thread...BD 50s have been delivered...
Blacks are absolutely rock solid, and contrast nice and smooth across the entire grayscale. Whites are not overpumped, and unlike some cheaper video formats (such as MiniDV and the like) the darker scenes generally don't lose detail in the shadows.
Quote:
This Blu-ray release is also considerably superior to the standard DVD release. The image throughout is more detailed and sharp, sometimes noticeably so, and a bit brighter as well. Colors also get a big boost, especially during the second half of the film. The almost shocking hues of the futuristic sets, for example, are so vivid they seem impossibly real, delivering the kind of color only high-definition is capable of.
Quote:
'Click' is certainly not your usual Adam Sandler comedy. Many will likely be turned off by the film's much darker second half, and it is a tough tonal shift for any film to pull off. But there is no doubt about this Blu-ray release -- the format's first BD-50 dual-layer disc packs a fine punch. The transfer is very strong as is the soundtrack, and there are a ton of extras presented in full high-definition video. If this is an indication of what the Blu-ray format can ultimately deliver on a consistent and routine basis, the format war is just getting started.
Indeed, the format war is just getting started, and Blu-ray looks to be delivering...and there is a lot more to deliver with the PS3, the other BD 50s, multiple brand Blu-ray players. Things look good indeed.
Comments
Myth? Who do you suppose you are fooling...? Certainly not me or most here, despite your lies, FUD, and clear distaste for anything Blu-ray. Check the date on your article first off. Your article was released on September 4th, and not to mention clearly doesn't provide a source for their "50,000" number. Now,...check this link...
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...VD_Players/233
Relevant quote from article:
Notice the date on there genius,...Mr. "I'm always a few steps ahead of you?" Yeah, it's September 15th, alsmost two weeks after this wonderfully full of crap piece (September 4th) you've decided to post here. So again, you're not fooling anyone.
Moreover, I've stated this before about this particular site, but they tend to trail most of their Blu-ray and HD DVD articles with the same paragraph which is one of the most tilted and misleading paragraphs in favor of HD DVD that I've ever read in terms of giving a synopsis of the HD landscape. They make it read as if Sony and Panasonic are the only ones behind the Blu-ray format, and that 230 CE and IT companies worldwide support HD DVD. Uhh huh, no mention of the 170+ companies withing the BDA, no mention that the majority of the 230 CE and IT companies they reference of the DVD forum actually support Blu-ray, no mention of Lionsgate, or Paramount Pictures, or New Line Cinema as far as studio support. What's funny is, is you rag sites like IGN.com and then come back with a credibly suspect site like x-bit labs.
Regardless, even if Toshiba is successfull/lucky enough to sell 200,000 players by years end...how does this compare to the 1,000,000 units that will sell in the form of the PS3 and other standalone players? Answer, it won't, and no matter how you try to spin it, the end result will be the same: Blu-ray will have far deeper market pentration.
Yeah, we all know where you get your "inside knowldedge," but Amir has been wrong most of the time in regards to the HD landscape just like you--I thought BD50s were a pipe dream? I swear I remember seeing you post this.
Furthermore, see this article as far as myths go (ya know the one where Lionsgate has cancelled ALL Blu-ray released for 2006)...
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news...on_Blu-ray/271
Keep wishing Redmond boy.
At least keep thinking this, cause reality will dissapoint you. I guess ignorance truly is bliss.
Ahh, always the push for now, now, look now. Someone getting scared? A bit paranoid that Blu-ray will undoubtedly overtake the "now" format of HD DVD...? Looks like it to me, because we all well know that the Weinsteins company has pledged Blu-ray support. It's all over the internet.
These are the facts, you need to deal with them...
http://dvd.themanroom.com/dvd-newsview.php?id=294
"Rank and file consumers" won't pay $500 for an HD DVD player either, just early adopters. I've said this many times, prices will need to go way down before mass consumer adoption is obtained. However, "rank and file consumers" WILL pay $499 for an all-in one game console and Blu-ray movie player--that's the genius of it in my opinion. The trojan horse effect.
4th quarter here is going to be a rude awakening for you here I'm afraid, where you'll see your short lived intertia as you so call put it being trumped by the Blu-ray snowball effect. Furtermore the fact is, consumers will buy products from brands they trust, and let's just say when the choices are Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer (with more to come) vs. Toshiba for this year, you'll be suprised to see those who will go with the better backing and the longer history of being a continually trusted and top-ranked brand.
And where are you getting this over 1 million HD DVD playback devices by the end of Q1 2007? Link please? Or are we just supposed to take your and Amir's "inside knowledge" as fact. Phhhhft, ahahaahaha.
ADVANTAGE: MARZETTA
Anybody have an idea who this might be?
Uhh... nope. SCO, maybe?
. . . the format sponsered by the equipment manufactors who have the deepest pockets and can best sustain the losses for these products over the next three to four years. Anybody have an idea who this might be?
Well, I can see Sony, where losses on the PS3 have already been accounted for in their business plan, and are somewhat offset by other revenues from the PS3. Otherwise, I don't know about the pocket of Panasonic and Pioneer, who no doubt must make money on their products.
What I find interesting is that Sony and Toshiba are partners with IBM in the Cell processor, but bitter rivals in HD.
Well, I can see Sony, where losses on the PS3 have already been accounted for in their business plan, and are somewhat offset by other revenues from the PS3. Otherwise, I don't know about the pocket of Panasonic and Pioneer, who no doubt must make money on their products.
What I find interesting is that Sony and Toshiba are partners with IBM in the Cell processor, but bitter rivals in HD.
what do you mean offset? the ps3 is going to lose a lot of money for sony, with no telling on when they can possibly turn it into a profit.
what do you mean offset? the ps3 is going to lose a lot of money for sony, with no telling on when they can possibly turn it into a profit.
Hey, read more carefully. I said 'somewhat offset,' meaning their loss is not as great as it would be otherwise. Sony knows they will lose money, just as they did on the PS2, and that certainly did not hurt them in the long run. This is what they decided to do and will do. Sony has no guarantee of success, but if we look at the PS and PS2 we see a pattern. Some competing products came out before Sony. Anyone remember the SEGA Dreamcast, or the 3DO system?
Hey, read more carefully. I said 'somewhat offset,' meaning their loss is not as great as it would be otherwise. Sony knows they will lose money, just as they did on the PS2, and that certainly did not hurt them in the long run. This is what they decided to do and will do. Sony has no guarantee of success, but if we look at the PS and PS2 we see a pattern. Some competing products came out before Sony. Anyone remember the SEGA Dreamcast, or the 3DO system?
yeah but this is a whole new generation, nothing is the same between those years and these upcoming years (the only thing being the same is sony not being the first to the market).
i find this to be one of the biggest problems with people assuming just because sony had a great business plan, and strategy before (overhyping and never delivering) that it automatically means they have one again this time.
looking at how many times they have already revised their position (with the controller, launch dates, price, hdmi,) it seems they are stumbling and scrambling to match their competitors rather than lead the industry.
sega dreamcast was a wonderful system, and for the first year it actually had better games overall than the ps2. BUT like i said before, sony had a great strategy of overhyping their system (remember the graphics they promised ? lmao).
the 3do was insanely overpriced, kind of like the ps3 is now.
the 3do was insanely overpriced, kind of like the ps3 is now.
And by that logic, so is the Xbox360 (insanely overpriced), but with lesser hardware.
Nice post but let's clarify some things. Your post lists Toshiba as the source and clearly delineates by region. They mention 25k in US homes. The 50k numbers are likely worldwide and with the Euro launch of 2nd generation hardware as well as Japan and US launches of 2nd generation clearly the 200k is reachable. Your whole point seemed to stem around 25k being the total number of shipped HD DVD players and that was a paltry number for studios to warrant going neutral. Clearly this was a bit of FUD on your part.
I'm not going to entertain the post about CE support. That's hearsay from you and frankly it's a pointless area of the argument. IGN is owned by Fox studios. X-Bit labs isn't owned by a studio yet you attempt to kill the messenger if you don't like the message. I can find other links that say the same thing. The endgame here is that your 25k statement was misleading and was easily debunked with more truthfull information.
The next question is how does 200k units compare to a million PS3 players. Very well.
Say you have a million PS3s in homes. How many can you guarantee will
1. Be hooked up to HDTV
2. Be used as a movie player at any significant rate
I'd say you'd be lucky to find a third of PS3 users with the necessary requirements(HDTV) and motivation to buy a lot of movies.
With a million STB HD DVD or Xbox add ons you guarantee a 1:1 relationship of hardware to movies. Playing movies will the the primary goal of HD DVD enabled STB, XBOX add on and HD DVD enabled laptops.
Lionsgate cancelling 2006 movies.
You call that a rebuttal. Look at the release list
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...es.html#bluray
Note that Descent is the LAST 2006 title listed and it's not coming to 12/26 and everything else is 2007. For all intents and purposes LG is done for the year.
Genius on Blu-Ray
Did you forget this part
Early next year, Genius will delve into Blu-ray for the first time with ESPN releases, which we speculate to include several of the ESPN original movies. Whether Genius then tackles 'Derailed' and other HD-DVD titles on Blu-ray remains to be seen.
LOL another "not until 2007" scenario. Didn't you say that the 4th quarter was the beginning of "shock and awe" ?? Well clearly you won't see many LG movies and no Weinstein movies. But you WILL see them on HD DVD. Notice a trend here?
Toshiba is a name people know. Microsoft is a name people know. The initial reviews of the Panasonic BD player aren't bad but they aren't good for a $1300 product. People expected more and they can't justify paying $500 more over the Samsung unit. Hell they could buy a Sammy and Toshiba unti for the price of one Panasonic unit.
The 4th qtr isn't going to change anything unless a majority of the American public gets a %20 raise. Blu-Ray is too expensive. I've always said this. Not everyone can have deep pockets like you and spend a kilobuck for a player.
LOL I love the adjectives "onslaught" I'm already reading about people getting ready to return the panny BD player. Best Buy better prepare for the onslaught of open box BD players again.
Here's why the 4th qtr will not go well for Blu-Ray
1. Expensive players- If a $500 HD DVD player wasn't available then consumers would think differently. The PS3 will be HARD to get. You're just not going to walk in to a store with $499 plus tax and walk out with a PS3.
2. Movies- Disney's first launch titles suck, LG is not going to have another title released until after Xmas. Warner still ships more titles on HD DVD. Universal is still rocking out quality movies. Fox has some decent movies coming. Sony has the dumbest choices for BD50....Click and Talledega Nights? WTF?.
2006 will end the same way it started. With Blu-Ray behind.
This all stems from the iSuppli BoM breakdown of the HD-A1 which is a guesstimate at best. I'd bet $100 easily that you couldn't prove that fact that the HD-A1 is subsidized. You'll be a daisy if you do because Toshiba execs have stated that it is not. However rumors persist because people like to take them and run with them like the whole "HD DVD is only 1080i" which stemmed from a poorly written article.
Folks at AVS believe that the HD-A1 was subsidized and we're talking moderators and HD-A1 retailers not fanbois. Given that the A2 will lose 5.1 analog outs and moves to CE chips rather than Intel CPUs I expect the A2s will be profitable at the same price points. I expect the current A1 pricing to be rather short lived: $399 at discounters...$275 for RCA boxes from Walmart. Walmart looks to be pulling out of the HD market as they seem to be clearancing software (both BD and HD-DVD) in some stores.
That's not a good showing for either camp. Fact is the launch for both formats is rather dismal.
http://www.videostoremag.com/news/ht...rticle_ID=9533
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6362963.html
Marzetta7 - heheheh a "paltry" 25k huh?
25K or 50K it's still not that much.
For the record I harbor little animosity for Blu-Ray as a format. It's just not the best format and no Blu-Ray fan has been able to refute that with empirical evidence.
The best format is iTunes HD.
I figure that by years end there will be a half million HD DVD enabled devices that are designed to play movies. That is in distinct contrast with a game console that is designed for games and just happens to play movies. The 1st generation of players was easily won by HD DVD. The upcoming Sony/Pio/Panny players will sell to enthusiasts but the rank and file consumer isn't going to pay $1000 for a player. That's a fact.
A half million by years end? ROFL. From 50K to 500K in 3 months with virtually no A1 stock in the channel and the A2 still pre-order? The HD-A2 is listing for $499-$459 on the web as pre-order.
The rank and file consumer ain't paying $450 for a DVD (HD or otherwise) player either.
Next year we should see $399 for less HD DVD players and more consumers will take note. By the end of Q1 2007 there will be over a million HD DVD playback devices. There WILL be more studios hopping over and it'll be clear that HD DVD isn't going anywhere. The inertia is already there.
Yea right...right now it still looks like DVD-A/SACD scenario to me. DVD-A hit a million player sales in a couple years but it's no rip-roaring success. I don't see either BD or HD-DVD being all that much better.
Vinea
The next question is how does 200k units compare to a million PS3 players. Very well.
Say you have a million PS3s in homes. How many can you guarantee will
1. Be hooked up to HDTV
2. Be used as a movie player at any significant rate
I'd say you'd be lucky to find a third of PS3 users with the necessary requirements(HDTV) and motivation to buy a lot of movies.
Mmm...1/3 of a million is 333K. I doubt that it will be as high as 1/3 but unless Sony really screws up (and they pretty much have been thus far but I digress) they should have a 1M PS3s for sale in the US by Dec vs your worldwide $200K number.
This Christmas isn't all that critical to Sony in my mind. The PS3 will sell out regardless given the limited number of consoles available in the US. Fanbois will snap them up regardless of price. Its next Christmas that will be an issue...the current pricing is too much for most parents to buy for their kids.
With a million STB HD DVD or Xbox add ons you guarantee a 1:1 relationship of hardware to movies. Playing movies will the the primary goal of HD DVD enabled STB, XBOX add on and HD DVD enabled laptops.
Dream on. The Gen 2 Toshibas are still $400+. BD won't do any better except for PS3 sales...and few of those will generate that many movie sales.
Here's why the 4th qtr will not go well for Blu-Ray
1. Expensive players- If a $500 HD DVD player wasn't available then consumers would think differently. The PS3 will be HARD to get. You're just not going to walk in to a store with $499 plus tax and walk out with a PS3.
Who cares? There will be 400K-1M of the PS3s in the US. Even assuming crappy adoption rates for BD movies on PS3 machines the market penetration for BD capable players in the US alone will be massive in comparison to HD-DVD.
2. Movies- Disney's first launch titles suck, LG is not going to have another title released until after Xmas. Warner still ships more titles on HD DVD. Universal is still rocking out quality movies. Fox has some decent movies coming. Sony has the dumbest choices for BD50....Click and Talledega Nights? WTF?.
Thus far all the movie titles (as a whole) suck IMHO. Oh look...Nacho Libre will be released later this month on HD! Yee ha! So what would be new about dumb HD releases?
Where is SW or LOTR? How about Harry Potter? The december titles look less than thrilling for either camp. Miami Vice? Devil Wears Prada? Come on.
2006 will end the same way it started. With Blu-Ray behind.
Only if Sony completely screws its PS3 launch. Possible. If you think its a sure thing you ought to go short Sony stock.
Vinea
vinea-the ps3 launch isn't totally screwed, but it definitely isn't sitting pretty. if there is the slightest recalls on any of the initial ps3 batch then sony IS SCREWED
I doubt a recall would hurt Sony, except in the pocketbook. This race will be decided after the PS3 has been out for a while, but I expect to see an early trend. Yet, that is all it will be at first, just a trend. I wonder whether this thread will still be going six months or a year from now?
I doubt a recall would hurt Sony, except in the pocketbook. This race will be decided after the PS3 has been out for a while, but I expect to see an early trend. Yet, that is all it will be at first, just a trend. I wonder whether this thread will still be going six months or a year from now?
when your rivals will be pushing out about 5 million consoles this fall against your measly million or so then yes a recall would be a devastating blow.
Lionsgate cancelling 2006 movies.
You call that a rebuttal. Look at the release list
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...es.html#bluray
Note that Descent is the LAST 2006 title listed and it's not coming to 12/26 and everything else is 2007. For all intents and purposes LG is done for the year.
Ahh, well, I think the real reason for LG releasing one more title this year and more to come next year has to do with this...(and nothing to do with HD DVD as much as you'd like it to be)
Lionsgate Goes BD-50 with 'Descent'
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news...th_Descent/289
Lionsgate has become the latest studio to jump on the BD-50 bandwagon, announcing their first 50GB dual-layer Blu-ray release with 'The Descent.'
As announced early last week, the cult horror flick will hit Blu-ray on December 26 -- just in time for Christmas, of course -- and day-and-date with the DVD release.
Tech specs include the film's 99-minute Unrated Cut presented in 1080p/MPEG-2 video, plus both an uncompressed PCM 6.1 surround and standard Dolby Digital 5.1 surround tracks.
With double the disc space versus a standard BD-25, single-layer disc, Lionsgate has also packed 'The Descent' with extras, including two audio commentaries, deleted and extended scenes, a documentary, multiple still galleries and trailers.
And in a first for the Blu-ray format, 'The Descent' will also boast exclusive HD content in the form of a new picture-in-picture interactive commentary, which promises to be similar to the "In-Movie Experience" feature currently popular on HD DVD titles.
Lionsgate has set a $39.95 list price for the Blu-ray release.
Yes, I think Lionsgate certainly saw the 50 giggers coming and decided to release on them for the remainder of their titles. Still hoping they are going the way of HD DVD? Keep hoping....
Genius on Blu-Ray
Did you forget this part
Early next year, Genius will delve into Blu-ray for the first time with ESPN releases, which we speculate to include several of the ESPN original movies. Whether Genius then tackles 'Derailed' and other HD-DVD titles on Blu-ray remains to be seen.
LOL another "not until 2007" scenario. Didn't you say that the 4th quarter was the beginning of "shock and awe" ?? Well clearly you won't see many LG movies and no Weinstein movies. But you WILL see them on HD DVD. Notice a trend here?
Clearly you WILL NOT see "them" that is more accurately Lionsgate movies on HD DVD. There is no indicator of this whatsoever, despite your desperate rumor mongering. Notice how Descent is on 50 GB, more than likely this is the reason for the postponement of other future Lionsgate releases outside of 2006, not HD DVD, nice try though.
Toshiba is a name people know. Microsoft is a name people know. The initial reviews of the Panasonic BD player aren't bad but they aren't good for a $1300 product. People expected more and they can't justify paying $500 more over the Samsung unit. Hell they could buy a Sammy and Toshiba unti for the price of one Panasonic unit.
You left out a part here, Toshiba, sure is a name people know as well as Microsoft. But the key here is are they brands the majority of consumers know AND TRUST from a CE perspective? I'd bet more people know AND trust Sony, Panasonic, and Pioneer moreso than Toshiba and Microsoft in the CE realm. According to Forrester Research's 2005 Technology brand scorecard this appears true...
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060330-6491.html
Sure, this is from 2005, but I believe data like this comes out at the end of the year, so it'll be interesting if any of this data changes much for the year 2006. I doubt it, but we'll see.
And speaking of Forrester Research, they've announced yet again the Blu-ray WILL beat HD DVD...
http://www.forrester.com/Research/Do...,40503,00.html
But what do market researchers know, huh? As long as we get spoon-fed info from Amir, this is what is really going on.
The A1 could indeed be subsidized but there's no empirical evidence that proves it. iSuppli BoMs are just guestimmate. They could be correct but they could be wrong. I agree with you that the 2nd generation stuff is built for profit. I'm ok with the changes that Toshiba has made.
25K or 50K it's still not that much.
Not it's not but Toshiba is stating 200k by years end and that doesn't include rebadged RCA units or Xbox add ons. If the Videoscan numbers are correct HD DVD enjoys an 11:1 advantage in movie attach vs Blu-Ray. These are relevant datapoints for trajectory that studios will indeed be watching.
The best format is iTunes HD
That is indeed possible. Apple is setting itself up to be a factor here and Walmart and Target are getting a bit worried.
A half million by years end? ROFL
200k Toshiba units
50k RCA units
200k xbox add ons (I've heard estimation of a %10 attach rate meaning closer to 300k)
30k laptops sold with HD DVD
My numbers are conservative if we're talking about the whole HD DVD playback universe.
Yea right...right now it still looks like DVD-A/SACD scenario to me. DVD-A hit a million player sales in a couple years but it's no rip-roaring success. I don't see either BD or HD-DVD being all that much better.
Then the problem is with your foresight. DVD-A/SACD were solutions to problems that didn't exist. Consumers weren't asking for 5.1 hirez audio they were asking for lower cost music. Apple provided low cost and easy access with iTunes and the rest is history. Consumers ARE asking for low cost HD movies after they have become acclimated to HD on their HDTV. Totally different markets here.
they should have a 1M PS3s for sale in the US by Dec vs your worldwide $200K number.
I'm talking about 200k Toshiba "Branded" product. The overall pie for HD DVD will be over 500k for all players IMO
Who cares? There will be 400K-1M of the PS3s in the US. Even assuming crappy adoption rates for BD movies on PS3 machines the market penetration for BD capable players in the US alone will be massive in comparison to HD-DVD.
That means squat for forcasting how many people will buy movies. You're asking for me to place faith in numbers that don't exist. Neither of us is right or wrong here. Insufficient data.
Lionsgate Goes BD-50 with 'Descent'
oops
Tech specs include the film's 99-minute Unrated Cut presented in 1080p/MPEG-2 video, plus both an uncompressed PCM 6.1 surround and standard Dolby Digital 5.1 surround tracks.
Highlighted items are items likely to look good because of the space but take up too much space compared to more efficient technologies like VC-1/AVC and TrueHD. This title will look good but no than it would look on a 30GB HD DVD disc which I'll have next year when LGF moves to HD DVD.
We'll see ...I'm sure you'll be eating crow and making more excuses on the day LGF announces HD DVD support. You'll rebut with silly numbers on studios or ce vendors. I'll remember your "prophetic" comments here. LGF moving to VC-1 is a huge flag. They could have stuck with MPEG or used AVC like Disney has on a title or two. But you're too blind to see that VC-1 means they plan to target both platforms with one encode.
So do you like Ketchup or something more spicy with your crow. I aim to please
Boring!
AFAIK, one HD-DVD player has been sold to you know who #1, and one Blu-Ray player has been sold to you know who #2.
I'd suggest you two strap on the gloves and duke it out, settle it once and for all, for the rest of us!
I think I'll sit this one out, and LET THE MARKET FORCES DECIDE THIS ONE FOR ME!
But if I was a betting dude, given the PS3, I think I'd know which horse to bet on! But I'm not.
Perhaps when players hit the ~$100 price point, when blank media hits the ~$5 price point, maybe then will be the time to buy, and by then it should have pretty much played itself out!
If anything, all of your bickering has left me to conclude that NEITHER format will gain wide acceptance!
So... how's Blu-Ray market doing since the launch?....... All I hear is stuff being delayed here and there...... with still planned and expecting dates for this and that....... BD50 ready, but still see movies in BD25..... Was it all a lie?..... What's the point of having one million BD player in the world, if you still have to watch BD25 titles that will leave bad taste in your mouth. Maybe, we'll soon see 1 million owners bad mouthing Blu-Ray in the near future. Maybe that will end of format war.
Obviously, you haven't been paying much attention to what has been stated in this thread...BD 50s have been delivered...
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/click.html
Blacks are absolutely rock solid, and contrast nice and smooth across the entire grayscale. Whites are not overpumped, and unlike some cheaper video formats (such as MiniDV and the like) the darker scenes generally don't lose detail in the shadows.
This Blu-ray release is also considerably superior to the standard DVD release. The image throughout is more detailed and sharp, sometimes noticeably so, and a bit brighter as well. Colors also get a big boost, especially during the second half of the film. The almost shocking hues of the futuristic sets, for example, are so vivid they seem impossibly real, delivering the kind of color only high-definition is capable of.
'Click' is certainly not your usual Adam Sandler comedy. Many will likely be turned off by the film's much darker second half, and it is a tough tonal shift for any film to pull off. But there is no doubt about this Blu-ray release -- the format's first BD-50 dual-layer disc packs a fine punch. The transfer is very strong as is the soundtrack, and there are a ton of extras presented in full high-definition video. If this is an indication of what the Blu-ray format can ultimately deliver on a consistent and routine basis, the format war is just getting started.
Indeed, the format war is just getting started, and Blu-ray looks to be delivering...and there is a lot more to deliver with the PS3, the other BD 50s, multiple brand Blu-ray players. Things look good indeed.