Apple's iTV delay doesn't help "dull holiday season" - report
With delays, competing standards and inventory shortages plaguing the consumer electronics market, there may not be one killer application this holiday season that emerges to capture the attention of shoppers, says one research firm.
"Apple Computer Inc.'s Internet Television (iTV), which will enable consumers to view iTunes and other content on their televisions via a Wi-Fi link to their personal computers, was one of the heavy favorites to tackle the market with both arms," El Segundo, Calif.-based iSuppli said in a research report released this week. "However, now its launch date has been pushed back to January."
Normally, the firm said, such a delay might provide a great opportunity for another company to steal the spotlight with a hit holiday product. But it sees competing standards and product shortages as making that much less likely during the hottest shopping period of 2006.
"These issues also are among the factors contributing to a slowdown this year in consumer electronics equipment overall," the firm said. "Factory equipment revenue will only rise 2.4 percent to reach $302.3 billion in 2006, compared to 11.6 percent and 13 percent growth in 2004 and 2005, respectively."
iSuppli believes many of "this year's wannabe hot products" have been designed to leverage strong sales growth for Digital Televisions that support High Definition video, such as HD-video DVD players. But those too are expected reflect much slower growth as a direct result of the ongoing battle between the HD-DVD and Blu- ray standards.
"Many consumers are waiting for a winner or, more likely, the emergence of dual-standard players and/or disks in time for next year's holiday season," the firm said. "Although both sides will claim otherwise, neither standard has a true technological advantage."
While the HD-DVD camp, headed by Toshiba, got a head start by entering the market in the late spring, iSuppli said its initial offerings have drawn criticism due to slow performance and a lack of full 1080 progressive-scan HD video output. Meanwhile, the Blu-ray group, led by Sony, has encountered its own shared problems that are spilling over into the video game console market, forcing a cut in holiday shipments of products like the Playstation3 down to about 2 to 2.4 million units.
iSuppli believes Microsoft, struggling to gain acceptance with its Xbox 360 series, may be shifting its focus somewhat from the video game market to the MP3 player market, where it plans to launch its new Zune player in mid-November.
"The company may consider this timing a good opportunity since its main competitor, Apple, has yet to launch any significant new iPods so far this year," the firm said. "The second-generation nano adds spiffy new cases, but still does not support video. And the latest hard disk-based flagship iPod, which merely adds a brighter display and more storage, is a far cry from the much anticipated ?true video? iPod featuring a larger, landscape-oriented display better suited for watching movies."
Still, the firm acknowledges that Apple's recent iPod launches did increase pressure on Microsoft by continuing to raise the basic value of storage per dollar. It also believes Microsoft has created another serious challenge for the Zune by replacing PlaysForSure with a new proprietary Digital Rights Management scheme.
"This change means that any content purchased through the Zune Marketplace will only work on a Zune player and not on PlaysForSure devices made by Microsoft customers like Creative Technology Ltd., SanDisk Corp., Sony and many others," the firm said. "As such, Microsoft could further alienate customers already concerned that a key software supplier is now also a competitor for players."
The writing appears to be on the wall, as SanDisk has already announced a three-way partnership with RealNetworks Inc. and Best Buy to develop its own content-hardware ecosystem to rival those from Apple and Microsoft.
"Apple Computer Inc.'s Internet Television (iTV), which will enable consumers to view iTunes and other content on their televisions via a Wi-Fi link to their personal computers, was one of the heavy favorites to tackle the market with both arms," El Segundo, Calif.-based iSuppli said in a research report released this week. "However, now its launch date has been pushed back to January."
Normally, the firm said, such a delay might provide a great opportunity for another company to steal the spotlight with a hit holiday product. But it sees competing standards and product shortages as making that much less likely during the hottest shopping period of 2006.
"These issues also are among the factors contributing to a slowdown this year in consumer electronics equipment overall," the firm said. "Factory equipment revenue will only rise 2.4 percent to reach $302.3 billion in 2006, compared to 11.6 percent and 13 percent growth in 2004 and 2005, respectively."
iSuppli believes many of "this year's wannabe hot products" have been designed to leverage strong sales growth for Digital Televisions that support High Definition video, such as HD-video DVD players. But those too are expected reflect much slower growth as a direct result of the ongoing battle between the HD-DVD and Blu- ray standards.
"Many consumers are waiting for a winner or, more likely, the emergence of dual-standard players and/or disks in time for next year's holiday season," the firm said. "Although both sides will claim otherwise, neither standard has a true technological advantage."
While the HD-DVD camp, headed by Toshiba, got a head start by entering the market in the late spring, iSuppli said its initial offerings have drawn criticism due to slow performance and a lack of full 1080 progressive-scan HD video output. Meanwhile, the Blu-ray group, led by Sony, has encountered its own shared problems that are spilling over into the video game console market, forcing a cut in holiday shipments of products like the Playstation3 down to about 2 to 2.4 million units.
iSuppli believes Microsoft, struggling to gain acceptance with its Xbox 360 series, may be shifting its focus somewhat from the video game market to the MP3 player market, where it plans to launch its new Zune player in mid-November.
"The company may consider this timing a good opportunity since its main competitor, Apple, has yet to launch any significant new iPods so far this year," the firm said. "The second-generation nano adds spiffy new cases, but still does not support video. And the latest hard disk-based flagship iPod, which merely adds a brighter display and more storage, is a far cry from the much anticipated ?true video? iPod featuring a larger, landscape-oriented display better suited for watching movies."
Still, the firm acknowledges that Apple's recent iPod launches did increase pressure on Microsoft by continuing to raise the basic value of storage per dollar. It also believes Microsoft has created another serious challenge for the Zune by replacing PlaysForSure with a new proprietary Digital Rights Management scheme.
"This change means that any content purchased through the Zune Marketplace will only work on a Zune player and not on PlaysForSure devices made by Microsoft customers like Creative Technology Ltd., SanDisk Corp., Sony and many others," the firm said. "As such, Microsoft could further alienate customers already concerned that a key software supplier is now also a competitor for players."
The writing appears to be on the wall, as SanDisk has already announced a three-way partnership with RealNetworks Inc. and Best Buy to develop its own content-hardware ecosystem to rival those from Apple and Microsoft.
Comments
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iSuppli believes Microsoft, struggling to gain acceptance with its Xbox 360 series, may be shifting its focus somewhat from the video game market to the MP3 player market, where it plans to launch its new Zune player in mid-November...
Xbox is number two in the gaming console wars. Nintendo is struggling to gain buyers.
"However, now its launch date has been pushed back to January."
Since when was iTV scheduled to launch in 2006? Steve said it was due in the first quarter of 2007. Appears on-track to me.
Same goes with HD-DVD, until Hollywood starts pumping out films on either of the formats, and Netflix and Blockbuster start carrying the titles, no one is going to go buy a player.
no one expected it to be here before MWSF....
these analysts are stupid
It's going to blow everyone out of the water for the holidays.
With delays, competing standards and inventory shortages plaguing the consumer electronics market, there may not be one killer application this holiday season that emerges to capture the attention of shoppers, says one research firm.
Analysts are funny. 3 products that I see as being huge this coming holiday season are
1) Nintendo Wii
2) Elmo TMX
3) Sony Playstation 3
Just because Apple isn't releasing anything doesn't mean that this will be a "dull holiday season" at all.
These research firms are such garbage--They claim to know what they are talking about by reading up on a couple rumor sites and trying to predict the future. Had they seen Jobs' Keynote presentation, they would have known that the iTV was never slated to come out for Christmas. That doesn't mean that we aren't hoping that Steve would surprise us just before the holiday season, but to claim that it "has been pushed back to January" is just a load of BS. And to criticize the recent iPod updates as not the "true video iPod" when there is no factual evidence to a release date is ludicris. Everything Apple does is for a reason, and I'm going to let them do what they do right because obviously they know what they are doing. For all we know these video ipods and iphones and such could already be completed or far from it. Apple is all about timing and always has been. There are specific reasons they release their products on certain dates, and a lot of it is probably due to quality control testing and revisions. You don't think Steve wants to release these products for the Christmas holiday? They will wait as long as it takes to make a genuine product, unlike Microsoft, which will hurry through the process in order to make the holiday season and gaurentee sales, except for Vista of course. And to criticize the ipod nano for not supporting video is like complaing that the shuffle doesn't have a screen yet. They are designed to do certain functions, not all be the same device.
Same goes with HD-DVD, until Hollywood starts pumping out films on either of the formats, and Netflix and Blockbuster start carrying the titles, no one is going to go buy a player.
Not knowing that both Netflix and Blockbuster carry HD-DVD titles doesn't strengthen your argument.
Not knowing that both Netflix and Blockbuster carry HD-DVD titles doesn't strengthen your argument.
I don't consider the 20 HD-DVD titles on Netflix reason enough to want an HD DVD player for Christmas.
Xbox is number two in the gaming console wars. Nintendo is struggling to gain buyers.
Nintendo is doing just fine. And they are making a profit as they always have. MS has failed with the XBox because it has cost them over $5 billion in losses at their game division since it first came out. The 360 is losing money at a great rate as well.
Meanwhile the Wii is the most anticipated player.
the fact remains that for a consumer electronics device to be released right after the holiday season is unfortunate. You can be sure that Apple would have wanted to launch it in time for Christmas.
Its normal for Apple to launch new products in January.
Apple launched the first generation iPod mini in January 2004. The mini doubled iPod sales through 2004 and went on to be the best selling iPod for the next year and a half.
While it's true that Steve never promised the iTV in 2006, the fact remains that for a consumer electronics device to be released right after the holiday season is unfortunate. You can be sure that Apple would have wanted to launch it in time for Christmas.
While I agree he did say early 2007 for iTV I kind of half hoped he was pulling a fast one and Santa Steve really intends to do a product announcement just in time for our wives to rush out and get one for our stockings
hahahahahahahahaha...
These people make me laugh, I shall allow them to live.
Analysts are funny. 3 products that I see as being huge this coming holiday season are
1) Nintendo Wii
2) Elmo TMX
3) Sony Playstation 3
Just because Apple isn't releasing anything doesn't mean that this will be a "dull holiday season" at all.
PSX3 has been pushed to 2007, spring release.