k2kw

rotateleftbyte said:

Mike Wuerthele said:

So, there will be those column-inches slain, and it will be a debacle, of that there is no doubt. However, it won't be much of one in actuality. It may pose a problem in the fall for iPhone upgrades, but if Apple keeps spending money at the same rate it is minus device construction and never makes another single dollar, it can run for about five years.

Those column inches will be read by those on Wall St that speak out of what they sit on and APPL will get marked down accordingly.

The shorters will make a few billion in the process.

That is the risk that Apple has to face up to. Not us the customer but us, the stockholder are the people they serve.

I see a lean couple of years for Apple from September 2019 to September 2021.

If I were Tim Cook (and I'm glad I'm not) I'd be making sure that there was a lot of other product ready to go on sale until they get a full 5G (ratified to the standard) phone on the market.

But once again, Wall St will ignore everything but the iPhone sales (or lack of...) but at least a steady stream of new product that is not a Phone will keep us (customers) relatively happy and us(stockholders) ready to buy APPL at appropriate times.

I'm not a holder of APPL stock at this point in time and the above is not investment advice in any way shape or form. It is just my opinion. YMMV

Apple stopped disclosing unit sales because they knew that declining iphones sales was coming.    They expected growing services and accessories business to cover up the fall in I phone revenue

Even though I think 5G will take a while to make a significant impact I believe that Apple should switch back to QualComm modems.
 The apple fanboys think that Apple can be late to the party with 5G but show up in the most fashionable dress but I think they are ignoring some points.

1.    QualComm's X55 modem is built with a 7nm process.   This will probably help battery life giving people who buy 5G phones the false belief that their phone is more better because it's 5G.    I doubt if intel will get their modems that small and energy efficient.   Look at how much they are behind with their i series chips.

2.    When apple originally implemented LTE they were considered behind the times like now.   But the difference is that Apple implemented LTE using QualComm modems which had the benefit of A.   coming from the developer of LTE technologies and B.  Qualcomm had a couple years of experience with developing modems in Android devices to improve their technology to Apples benefit.     Apple won't have those benefits now.    Intel's 5G modems like their 4G modems will be both late and substandard and when they do come out QualComm's third generation will perform much better than Intel.   If Apple is working to develop their own modems now I'm sure they will eventually get better but don't expect them to be that good right out of the gate.

3.    Many people believe that the switch to 5G will take years (probably years in the US) but it may actually go faster in other countries like China.    I expect Huawei to push strongly into 5G since they both make the Telecom infrastructure and cell phones.   Big urban centers in China will probably see this shift faster than Americans.   Apple phones will be even more unattractive compared to Android phones and Sales will continue to fall off even more.    Apple could respond by installing Huawei modems in their Chinese models but that would probably undercut the privacy benefits of Apple phones in China even more.

4.   Even if it takes two years to 5G to penetrate American Cities phone models created this year with the X55 like the Samsung S10 will still be a viable phone when selling two years from now while the iPhone XR2 (Apple's 2019 model) will be fall off in value in 2021 because it won't have 5G.  

GeorgeBMac said:

Mike Wuerthele said:

anantksundaram said:

Mike Wuerthele said:

The bind will be mostly expressed in column-inches on the web. Here in DC, there will be "localized spots" of 5G by the end of 2021. "Full" penetration isn't expected until 2024, and I suspect it won't be full at all out here in the suburbs. NYC, Boston, SF and most of the major metros are looking at the same timetable.

So, there will be those column-inches slain, and it will be a debacle, of that there is no doubt. However, it won't be much of one in actuality. It may pose a problem in the fall for iPhone upgrades, but if Apple keeps spending money at the same rate it is minus device construction and never makes another single dollar, it can run for about five years.

You're right about the transitions from a user perspective, assuming they can connect to the network at all. However, from a technological implementation standpoint, this rollout is actually harder, and requires a lot of individual pole-climbs in neighborhoods big and small. It is going to take a lot more work from the carriers to execute, than it did from 3G to LTE.

Not saying it is not true, but this is the first time I've heard the claims that I've bolded. Could you provide some credible cites/links? (Indeed, I am a bit surprised that this article did not include information similar to the claims you make -- it sounds like rather important contextual information, no?)

The rest of your post is mostly opinion, so I'll just leave it at that.

This is from DC, VA, and NYC planning docs regarding pole right of way and expected road closures. I'll see what I can find for public-facing links.

Regarding installation, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/technology/5g-cellular-service.html et al.

Actually, that article highlights two minor impediments to 5G - neither of them technical.
The first is local control for appearance and profit -- especially profit.
The second is the urban / rural divide that is already splitting this country apart politically.

The first will likely be steam-rolled over.  Any concerns of appearance will be given all the attention it deserves.  And, any town that holds back 5G to extort money from the carriers will be shooting itself in the foot.

The second is, and has been, a real problem that dates back 100 years:   For-profit utilities simply have no incentive to serve the rural areas.  That started in the early 20th century with electricity -- where the Federal Government stepped in with the the Tennessee Valley Authority to provide electric to Appalachia.  And we see it playing out again in the last decades with cable not being strung into rural areas.

The irony of it is:  The Republican controlled rural areas tend to hate any and all government intervention.  Yet, that is the only way they are likely to get quality internet service (or any internet for that matter).  Aside from a shift of political views, the only thing that might save them is that 5G will likely be strung along major highways -- so they might be able to piggy back off of that to some limited degree.  

Yes rural republican areas bitch about socialism and then complain when they don't get their piece whether cheap power from the TVA or subsidized communication whether cable or internet (its nearly always subsidized by city subscribers) .    And of the original socialism Rural Free Delivery of Mail.    I bet you my mailman in the city delivers more mail in one day than rural mailpersons deliver in a week as they drive between mailboxes widely spaced.   Ironic now that their republican representatives are causing many rural post offices to be closed.

BittySon said:

They are "considering" a "preview" of the new MacPro?  Pardon my lack of enthusiasm but it is shameful that a COMPUTER COMPANY takes several years to develop a new model.  What exactly are they doing there at Apple Park?  Designing new animoji?  Beyond pathetic. Getting rid of Angela was not enough.  Tim needs to go yesterday.

Yep and now that iPhone revenue has declined they are finally rushing to get some other products out.    Maybe they will listen to some of the complaints about the keyboard on MBP.

minisu1980 said:

Let see 38.5 million units sold.

Amazon 13.7% (5,274,500 units) x $20 
$105,490,000 Revenue
Reasonable to assume less than 5% profit margins 
$5,274,500 profit

Apple 1.6% (616,000 units) x $349
$214,984,000 Revenue 
Reasonable to assume historic profit margins of 30%
$64,495,200 profit

Think I’ll hold my Apple positions.

With all the Christmas sales of the HP there is no way Apple was making their customary 30%.   I would be surprised if its more than 5%.   Didn't John Gruber say they are giving them away for free.   They make their profit on the hooked Apple Music subscriptions. 

AppleExposed said:

Not bad considering the competition gives them away for free or 20 bucks.

The sad part is that Apple is being compared to them when Apple never intended to compete with them.

What Apple could do is release a gen 2, drop the price of gen 1 $100 and then surprise us with a portable version. There's already crappy portable speakers copying the HomePod design.

If gen 2 has an auxiliary audio port and USB connection then it could be much more compelling as a speaker.