avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?

In case you're wondering I did not write this piece... 

"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."

... 

"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology" 

https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/op-ed-us-sanctions-against-huawei-keep-backfiring-enough-already

Again, why are you supporting China threatening Taiwan?

I don't support anyone threatening anyone. I have never supported anyone threatening anyone.

I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest. 

Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.

It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there. 

Nordstream was fought by the Bush administration, Nordstream II by Obama, Trump, and Biden; all were correct in their assessment that Nordstream was an achilles heel for the EU. Given that he U.S. was the power behind NATO, which was created to protect Europe from the Soviet Union, that is as it should be. The same applies to U.S. demands about Huawei telecom; you don't build critical infrastructure  from a hostile power, and China is in fact a hostile power. 

The U.S. has supported the ROC since 1949 when the KMT fled to Formosa, nee Taiwan. Heck, the first Sidewinder missile to see combat was launched by a Taiwanese F-86 against a PRC Mig.

https://www.twz.com/42544/the-legendary-sidewinder-missile-made-its-first-kill-over-the-taiwan-strait

By this stage, the battle lines of the Taiwan confrontation had been established, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) building up its forces on the mainland, while the Nationalists, forced out of the mainland, held out on Taiwan. At this time, the government in Taiwan was still widely recognized as the legitimate government of China, including within the United Nations, the country enjoying a status that has since notably diminished. Then as now, Taiwan was a recipient of U.S. military assistance, including the supply of combat aircraft, including F-86F Sabre jet fighters

...

Overall, the appearance of the Sidewinder had been a surprise for the PRC and for observers in general. There was a lucky windfall for the Communists, however, with at least one missile hitting a MiG-17, but not detonating. The jet returned to base where the missile wreckage was removed and later studied. That resulted in the reverse-engineered Vympel K-13 (AA-2 Atoll) in the Soviet Union and the license-built PL-2 equivalent in the PRC. Both these weapons had serious shortcomings in terms of capabilities, as did the early-generation Sidewinders, but they similarly provided a springboard toward much more practical designs.

The PRC has never had any control of Taiwan. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, beyond being home to TSMC. It deserves to remain a democracy.

What absolute and utter nonsense. It is not for the US to decide anything for other people.

The Taiwan issue is complex and recognised as complex around the world with the exception of 13 states, but to justify the Biden Nord Stream threat like you just did is madness. 

All I can say is wow! 

So China is a hostile power? You mean more hostile than the US? LOL. 

The absolute most horrifying thing about your 'justification' is that it is probably how Biden sees things too. 

Anyway. I have no need to continue with this as there is nothing more I can say. So I will rest my case.

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?

In case you're wondering I did not write this piece... 

"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."

... 

"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology" 

https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/op-ed-us-sanctions-against-huawei-keep-backfiring-enough-already

Again, why are you supporting China threatening Taiwan?

I don't support anyone threatening anyone. I have never supported anyone threatening anyone.

I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest. 

Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.

It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there. 

By this stage, the battle lines of the Taiwan confrontation had been established, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) building up its forces on the mainland, while the Nationalists, forced out of the mainland, held out on Taiwan. At this time, the government in Taiwan was still widely recognized as the legitimate government of China, including within the United Nations, the country enjoying a status that has since notably diminished. Then as now, Taiwan was a recipient of U.S. military assistance, including the supply of combat aircraft, including F-86F Sabre jet fighters

...

Overall, the appearance of the Sidewinder had been a surprise for the PRC and for observers in general. There was a lucky windfall for the Communists, however, with at least one missile hitting a MiG-17, but not detonating. The jet returned to base where the missile wreckage was removed and later studied. That resulted in the reverse-engineered Vympel K-13 (AA-2 Atoll) in the Soviet Union and the license-built PL-2 equivalent in the PRC. Both these weapons had serious shortcomings in terms of capabilities, as did the early-generation Sidewinders, but they similarly provided a springboard toward much more practical designs.

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

And if you think de-dollarisation isn't underway, that is fine.

".. owing to the increasing awareness of the economic and geopolitical rationales for de-dollarization and the fact that major developing countries have been at the forefront of the movement, the trend toward further de-dollarization seems unstoppable."

https://internationalbanker.com/finance/the-dollar-still-dominates-but-de-dollarization-is-unstoppable/

" As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB."

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/hf02-start-of-de-dollarization-chinas-gradual-move-away-from-the-usd/#:~:text=The Start of De-Dollarization: China's Move Away from the,that's no longer the case.

Just random Google results. 

You lost me at your rambling and massively long spaghetti post #31. Perhaps you should opt for some AI assistance?
 
You might want to actually attempt to understand the details a bit better before you post. Yeah, countries are attempting de-dollarization, but so far, with little success. Perhaps that reason is that the BRICS economies aren't doing so well; all of them collective are barely larger than the U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the 2nd largest economy in the world, that would be China, is in economic trouble.

China's rise? I'm old enough to remember when you were certain that China was going to exceed the U.S. GDP.

That isn't going to happen, and that is plainly on Xi.

Your 'little success' is totally irrelevant. My quote on China's de-dollarisation paints a very clear picture.

Your post was in reply to me saying de-dollarisation is underway.

More to the point are the reasons why it is underway. 

Please quote me on the China GDP claims. Why is it even so important when both countries take up a huge swathe of global GDP, leaving even the third place well behind?

As you well know, China overtook the US in PPP back in 2016 but I already know you won't accept that as a metric. However, that is irrelevant. 

And what do BRICS economies have to do with anything? That is a ridiculous statement.

China is still building out massive critical infrastructure projects everywhere outside China on BRICS/BRI policy (ports, airports, ICT, health, rail... plus the technology tools for managing that infrastructure which is all digital) and staking an ever increasing claim to business in the Middle East. 

As for China's rise, well yeah, that was my point, wasn't it? . They've 'risen' and that's why the US is acting like it is in the technology stakes. 

Flailing wildly with no real coherent ideas. Just whack-a-mole reactions. 

Compare the Obama era China to the Biden era China. See any difference? 

So what have US 'counter' China efforts actually achieved? 

Literally nothing because China rose just like everyone knew it would. 

Yet the price paid in self harm for US semiconductor interests is painfully evident. And it's highly likely that business (billions upon billions) is never coming back.

When Obama was initially in office, Xi was not. Chairman/President/ General Secretary Xi didn't happen until Obama's second term.

What changed? Xi became more authoritarian, that's a fact, and later, due to China's COVID response, supply chains began shifting out of China.

What has the U.S. counter to China actually achieved? Well, it hard to state whether China's economy has slowed due to those supply chain shifts, or Xi's policies, but the fact that the U.S. has made re-shoring and friend-shoring the point of its economic policy, while China's growth has slowed seem to indicate a bit of both. China's economy is in very poor shape right now, and with the EU likely having to have tariffs on Chinese EV's, China is going to be very unhappy and retaliate, which is expected.

You still seem to be unaware that Xi's threats of invasion of Taiwan are threats against the global economy, and for a fact, if Xi invades Taiwan, the Global economy will be in shock. That won't be on the U.S. for that happening, it will be on Xi, who likely won't care at that point. How bloody that battle will be is unknown, but it will be the most intense in history, but for a very short time. China will likely not recover, even if it successfully invades Taiwan.

Meanwhile, all of the tech stocks are up, driven by AI, so I don't see that China is of much concern to ASML, et al, especially if the EU follows the U.S. to fund more fabs, which it seems to be inclined to do. What doesn't go to China will go elsewhere, and China will surely be able to build all of the power plants that it needs for all of the older tech that will drive its AI efforts.

There you go! Full on politics. 

Try to keep things technology focused. 

Xi is irrelevant to my point. The point was that US foreign policy saw China (not the leader!) as a rising power. Technology was one of pillars of that rise. 

The Pacific Pivot was partly a move to suppress it. Followed up by US tariffs which are ongoing. 

China has risen nevertheless. 

Policy failed. 

Saying 'well we don't know how effective the moves were' or blaming Xi are irrelevant to my point. 

In technology (the industrial revolution of this century) sanctions are not working and are doomed to failure. They were from day one. 

Just today (Reuters):

"During Nvidia's first quarter earnings on Wednesday, senior executives warned that the company's business in China is "substantially" lower than in the past due to the sanctions.

Nvidia's most advanced AI chip it developed for the China market has got off to a weak start, with abundant supply forcing it to be priced below a rival chip from Chinese tech giant Huawei. 
... 

Our data centre revenue in China is down significantly from the level prior to the imposition of the new export control restrictions in October
... 

Analysts said while Nvidia was trying hard to capture share in a market it cannot afford to lose, the outlook is increasingly uncertain.
... 

Nvidia is definitely preparing for the worst in the long term"

https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-cuts-china-prices-huawei-chip-fight-sources-say-2024-05-24/

That is a simple and very current snapshot. 

So US semiconductor interests get shot to pieces (by friendly fire) through them not being allowed to do business with their biggest customers. Revenues fall as a result and from those revenues R&D is supposed to lead to the technologies of tomorrow. 

Less revenue. Less financing for R&D. Less technology for tomorrow. 

Not only that. Your main commercial market (that you are now unable to cater to on competitive terms) begins creating solutions that will directly compete with you in the future! 

That's Nvidia's reality and the reality of every single US technology company. They are all in the same leaky boat. 

You can 'want to believe' Biden when he says the US can 'out-compete' anyone but deep down, you know its just an election year soundbyte that is going straight into the bin. 

After all, this is the same person who so strongly criticised Trump's tariffs on China, saying they only cost American citizens more money. That was pre-election too. 

The point, and you know that you have been avoiding it, is that Xi has threatened, over and over again, to invade Taiwan. More than that, China has been supporting Russia with dual use material. That doesn't endear China to the U.S. and the EU at all.

https://news.sky.com/story/the-dual-use-chinese-goods-helping-russias-war-machine-13136786

Good luck on China picking up the pace in technology without the West, and more so, without the revenues from the West to fund the Chinese economy. I'm sure that China will be able to compete using less efficient technology while plugged into an array of additional coal fired power plants, but otherwise, they aren't going to catch up a rate fast enough to make a difference in the semiconductor market.

Yes, there are sales that are not being made into China, but at the same time, AI investment is bringing new sales to Intel, Nvidia, AMD, and yes, even Apple.

Your support of authoritarianism is something I noted when I saw some of your first posts, wrt using facial recognition on Catalonian protestors. What you post today is yet more indication of your lack of moral framework, and I find your support of authoritarians loathsome..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vWCzfX9MI4

How Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism is killing China’s economy | Business Beyond

You can't help yourself. Authoritarian or not is NOT the problem. 

That is irrelevant. Forget that in this discussion. 

The US does massive business with the country and is fine with that. As per Trump, the US actually wants more business with China! 

The US has literally depended on Saudi Arabia for decades. Another authoritarian state (which it literally armed to the teeth!). 

The US does NOT have an issue with authoritarian governments just because they are authoritarian.

No. What the real issue is, is if a state can challenge US hegemony. Then the US will use (is using!) any means it can to thwart it.

Authoritarian or not! 

And ironically, that makes its actions, well, authoritarian! Breaking UN charter agreements, WTO agreements, not joining the ICC system (for fear of finding itself on the hook multiple times over), etc.

China has largely been non-interventionist. The US has invaded countries at will, effected regime change, caused untold civilian deaths (directly and indirectly), mismanaged both Iraq and Afghanistan...

China is a poodle in comparison. 

That is irrelevant here, though. 

Like I said earlier. Taiwan is an afterthought for the US. It doesn't give a damn about it. What it cares about is TSMC. 

That means technology.

Set aside your political ideas and look at the technology side. 

As China has upped it technological capabilities to the point of actively challenging US influence, the US decided that couldn't be allowed and it was clear about it (re-read Barr's speech). 

How they are going about it, though, is doing more harm than good to its own interests. That is my point. 

US semiconductor interests are literally getting pummeled in the process and all you relentlessly point to is Xi and authoritarianism. Let it go!

Nvidia (and by extension, the US semiconductor industry) is dependent on China for key revenues. Export restrictions are effectively tying its hands behind its back and accelerating China's (already advanced) progress. 

Catalonian protestors? Facial recognition technology? I have no idea where you want to go with that but I can guarantee you, wherever it is, you are mistaken. As usual. 

You definitely don't know what happened here on the night of September 7th 2017 and why it was called a blow to democracy. Do you know why those Catalan politicians ended up in prison?

Don't bother answering that. 

Refocus your thoughts onto the technology side and its impact. 

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

And if you think de-dollarisation isn't underway, that is fine.

".. owing to the increasing awareness of the economic and geopolitical rationales for de-dollarization and the fact that major developing countries have been at the forefront of the movement, the trend toward further de-dollarization seems unstoppable."

https://internationalbanker.com/finance/the-dollar-still-dominates-but-de-dollarization-is-unstoppable/

" As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB."

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/hf02-start-of-de-dollarization-chinas-gradual-move-away-from-the-usd/#:~:text=The Start of De-Dollarization: China's Move Away from the,that's no longer the case.

Just random Google results. 

You lost me at your rambling and massively long spaghetti post #31. Perhaps you should opt for some AI assistance?
 
You might want to actually attempt to understand the details a bit better before you post. Yeah, countries are attempting de-dollarization, but so far, with little success. Perhaps that reason is that the BRICS economies aren't doing so well; all of them collective are barely larger than the U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the 2nd largest economy in the world, that would be China, is in economic trouble.

China's rise? I'm old enough to remember when you were certain that China was going to exceed the U.S. GDP.

That isn't going to happen, and that is plainly on Xi.

Your 'little success' is totally irrelevant. My quote on China's de-dollarisation paints a very clear picture.

Your post was in reply to me saying de-dollarisation is underway.

More to the point are the reasons why it is underway. 

Please quote me on the China GDP claims. Why is it even so important when both countries take up a huge swathe of global GDP, leaving even the third place well behind?

As you well know, China overtook the US in PPP back in 2016 but I already know you won't accept that as a metric. However, that is irrelevant. 

And what do BRICS economies have to do with anything? That is a ridiculous statement.

China is still building out massive critical infrastructure projects everywhere outside China on BRICS/BRI policy (ports, airports, ICT, health, rail... plus the technology tools for managing that infrastructure which is all digital) and staking an ever increasing claim to business in the Middle East. 

As for China's rise, well yeah, that was my point, wasn't it? . They've 'risen' and that's why the US is acting like it is in the technology stakes. 

Flailing wildly with no real coherent ideas. Just whack-a-mole reactions. 

Compare the Obama era China to the Biden era China. See any difference? 

So what have US 'counter' China efforts actually achieved? 

Literally nothing because China rose just like everyone knew it would. 

Yet the price paid in self harm for US semiconductor interests is painfully evident. And it's highly likely that business (billions upon billions) is never coming back.

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

blastdoor said:

The best deterrence would be for the Allies to show they can scale up defense production. Right now, they’re kind of trying but kind of failing. Nothing will encourage China more than a Russian win in Ukraine due to a failure to supply Ukraine with enough anmo. That would be a clear sign of western weakness, and Taiwan could basically kiss its freedom goodbye.

Exactly right.

I would note that the U.S. and Germany, have been especially "timid" in allowing their weapons systems to interdict Russian forces in Russia, as well as destroy Russian military production at the source. Of note, recently developed Russian systems have fallen to Western weapons systems that are decades old; Russian hardware just isn't that great.

melgross said:

avon b7 said:

It's all pretty much nonsense from a chip perspective.

Only a tiny fraction of the world's chip output is on cutting edge nodes. What makes the world go around is everything else that isn't cutting edge. The much older, more mature nodes. 

There are strategic commercial reasons behind China not having access to cutting edge nodes so the most likely outcome of hostilities is old-fashioned, ehem, 'anonymous' physical destruction, a la Nord Stream, for example and the bulk of our telecommunications runs over undersea cabling too so that is guaranteed to get the snip if things go wrong. Satellite communications will also be interfered with. 

That would see a lot of already fabricated chips with very little to do. 

Sanctions have only accelerated China's chip efforts and determination and, as we move beyond silicon, new solutions will come to market (phototonics are showing promise). Possibly for highly specialised fields first but 'kill switches' are simply spanners in the works when it comes to fabrication. 

Apple took a huge risk in putting all its chip related eggs into one basket mostly in Taiwan. It's paid off so far but the risk (political, economic, natural disaster or otherwise) remains and they are seeking to change that slowly. A wise move. 

This is one area in which we can agree. Telling China that we’re not going to sell you the most advanced chips is just going to spur them on to spend a few dozen more billion on figuring out how to do it themselves. China is not Russia. Russia hasn’t the talent or money to compete. China, even with its current economic problems, does.

China's economy is in shambles, so the level of effort to recreate the entire supply chain to compete in leading edge nodes isn't something that will happen very rapidly, if at all. It certainly will be more than a "few dozen more billion".

China not having access to leading edge nodes for AI, for example, maintains the edge that the U.S. and the Western World have on weapons development, anti-ship missiles, as an example, a primary constraint on any attempt of invasion by China.

The greatest danger to Taiwan is though the end of the decade, as the potential window for a successful invasion closes.

China will get there far quicker than they would have otherwise, specifically due to sanctions. Short term gain in exchange for long term loss in semiconductor related revenues. 

"Enhancing Computing Power for AI. In October 2023, MIIT and other agencies announced the Action Plan on the Development of High-Quality Computing Power Infrastructure. Among other things, the plan aims to increase China’s computing power to 300 EFLOPS by 2025. According to MIIT, China reached 197 EFLOPS, ranking second globally, as of 2023. The action plan includes the creation of 50 computing hubs by 2025 to boost advanced computing capabilities and improve data management, processing, and infrastructure. This initiative highlights the significant investment of the Chinese government in advanced computational infrastructure to meet future AI and other computing demands."

https://www.insideglobaltech.com/2024/02/08/spotlight-series-on-global-ai-policy-part-iii-chinas-policy-approach-to-artificial-intelligence/

Your point of view makes some sense only if you set aside the fact that China continues to threaten invasion of Taiwan, a sovereign country. You do agree that Taiwan is a sovereign country, don't you?

Would you accept that China will continue to use this same technology for war fighting, just as the U.S. and its allies have and will?

If the above is true, and it certainly is, then why would the U.S. want to continue to give China the tools to increase China's war fighting ability in the short term? Why wouldn't the U.S. and its allies restrict sales of dual use technology to China, and at the same time, decrease investment generally in China, with a shift of the supply chain.

More to the point, where is your support of your beloved EU to take up some of the slack in production on the older nodes that you are so fond of touting? One would think that you would be at the forefront of that.

China has been attempting to move to leading edge nodes, and that has cost them a tremendous amount of resources, mostly to little effect. True, SMIC has been able to use DUV to get to 7nm, and they may be able to get to 5nm, but that will be at a huge inefficiency and cost. At the same time, the U.S. and its allies have shut off sales of DUV machines to China, with restrictions on support for those, as well as restrictions of much more of the semiconductor supply chain that China has access to.

As for the invasion of Taiwan, it isn't a sure thing in any case, and the more time that goes by, the more resources that the West will have in place to deter it, should China decide to invade Taiwan.

As for your posts above about the "loss of sales", that quite laughable, given that Nvidia, et all, are expected to continue massive sales driven by AI, even without sales to China of the latest hardware.

Apple took a huge risk in putting all its chip related eggs into one basket mostly in Taiwan. It's paid off so far but the risk (political, economic, natural disaster or otherwise) remains and they are seeking to change that slowly. A wise move. 

The only real threat to TSMC is China invading, so yeah, it has certainly paid of for Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD and many other, including those users of the older nodes.

I'm mainly talking about the technology side of things even if there is some degree of geo-political overlap.

Taiwan's sovereignty is neither here nor there. There is a geopolitical angle to the TSMC situation and that is based on purely commercial interests and those interests are tied inevitably to technology hegemony. 

Take TSMC out of Taiwan and no one would give a damn about the people of Taiwan. For the US it would simply be another 'Afghanistan' and if they could keep military outposts there, all the better. That is the harsh reality.

'Dual use' technology is simply an empty reference, devoid of any real meaning. 

Huawei handsets were 'banned' in the US. That is protectionism, plain and simple. No dual use scenarios. The 'Hawks' say the Evil CCP have their fingers in every Chinese company. No Chinese company is free from its influence! At least according to them. So why are plenty of other Chinese companies allowed to operate within the US? Where is the dual use danger within a smartphone, a laptop or whatever, anyway? 

Come on, even 'people' are dual use! 

Then there are the technology supply chains themselves. Almost all of them involving China somewhere along the way. iPhone included. Much was (and still is) said about that, but China is still pumping out core technology components worldwide. 

It is not up the the US to decide who can 'have' and who can 'not have'. 

Weaponry does NOT use cutting edge technology for the most part and, as stated by Peter Wennink, most military use chipset technologies are around 15 years behind the technological curve. 

No one, and I think this needs repeating, NO ONE is in a position to thwart China's technology advances because that is quite literally mission impossible. 

ALL US moves have had the overall opposite effect: spurring China to do it themselves. Accelerating Chinese advances at the expense of US interests which have have seen their revenue streams severed. 

"ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink said US-led export control measures against China could eventually push Beijing to successfully develop its own technology in advanced chipmaking machines." 
... 

If they cannot get those machines, they will develop them themselves. That will take time, but ultimately they will get there
... 

"The laws of physics in China are the same as here,” 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asml-says-chip-controls-push-160223528.html

Of course, privately, Wennink is tearing his hair out because he knows that when China pulls the rabbit out of the hat, his company is in for some formidable competition. 

That exact same word was used by the CEO of Nvidia to describe Huawei's current AI products. 

Both companies are losing business to their biggest customers for no good reason. 

In what way is forcing China to reach its goals faster, better than having them reach them later? 

I'll tell you: In no way. 

It's crazy. 

The problem is that the US voted in a president who was simply not fit for office and his replacement is too senior to understand what is really going on. 

And one of them will probably be back for the next term! Neither candidate is fit for the job, realistically speaking. 

Trump's China obsession (as Tweeted by the man himself) was all about things not happening "on my watch". 

That was it. No one (except the Pentagon no less!) held him in check. The Pentagon actually held back one of his executive orders on China for 'national security' reasons, only to let it proceed later. 

It's something when your own president is deemed a national security risk. 

Now Biden is making the same mistakes. 

From the recent US tariff increase factsheet (May 2024):

"As President Biden says, American workers and businesses can outcompete anyone—as long as they have fair competition. But for too long, China’s government has used unfair, non-market practices." 

"Through the CHIPS and Science Act, President Biden is making a nearly $53 billion investment in American semiconductor manufacturing capacity, research, innovation, and workforce. This will help counteract decades of disinvestment and offshoring that has reduced the United States’ capacity to manufacture semiconductors domestically"

Fair competition is banning Huawei's handset business and putting it on the Entity List without a shred of supporting evidence? Fair competition is threatening allies? Fair competition is weaponising technology and the dollar? 

The US can 'outcompete anyone' yet in the very same document, reveals that the root causes of the inability to compete lie in disinvestment and offshoring.

What a mess! 

And that is why the US has no technology leverage in ICT market terms on 5G.

The US dropped the ball! 

And after years of moaning about China subsidising industry (something everyone, everywhere has done forever!) it is now OK to launch the CHIPS act (with strings attached). Those strings being that China is out of the picture. There is your 'fair competition'.

So now, de-dollarisation has begun. De-Americanisation is underway. Virtually nobody is supporting sanctions against Russia. The only countries openly supporting the US represent less than 12% of the world's population. Almost the entirety of the rest is either invested in BRICS+ and/or the BRI. And let's not forget the Digital Silk Road.

The unipolar world is gone but the US is clinging to an 'old world' mindset.

It is not only doomed to failure (that ship sailed the moment Trump put pen to paper) but there is no going back. US technology is now 'toxic' in the eyes of many and when China eventually catches up, it will be very competitive. For starters, where do you think local Chinese companies will be sourcing their new technologies? 

As Africa, Latin America/Brazil, Asia etc move up the technology ladder, where do you think they will be sourcing their technology from?

HarmonyOS has already hit 800 million devices. This year it will jettison Android completely in China and move to a 'pure' HarmonyOS version. It is tipped to overtake iOS in China by year's end. It seems Huawei took first place in Chinese tablet sales for Q1-24.

Apple is currently heavily discounting iPhones in China as the Pura 70 series targeted the price points of every single current iPhone model.

The Mate 70 series is rumoured to release and go head to head with this year's iPhone.

As Huawei takes marketshare away from Apple and other Chinese players, it is also taking share indirectly from US companies (like Qualcomm). 

Had it not been for sanctions, how much of this technology would be a reality today? 

I know you want to go 'full on' politics but try to keep things in the technology bubble on the whole. Please.