avon b7 said:

It's all basically nonsense and definitely has nothing to do with the blanket claim of 'national security'.

Even the Pentagon still relies on waivers to skirt 'obligations'. 

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/03/pentagon-huawei-ban-national-defense-authorization-act/

Much of the internet ends up running over vast networks of fibreoptic cables and Huawei has laid (and manages) thousands of km of underwater lines. 

The so called 'clean networks' that the US tries to promote (while trying to keep a straight face) are also nonsense.

Huawei offered to licence its entire 5G stack to a US consortium (just to allow it to have something of 'its own' to control) but the US refused.

The reality is (and always was) that the US sees China as being able to overtake it in key areas and instead of trying to compete with better products and technologies it chooses to try and bludgeon any rival out of the game. 

That includes 'allies' who used Chinese technology (5G for example) and who refused to play along. Just ask Boris. 

https://www.ft.com/content/a70f9506-48f1-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d

https://frontierindia.com/cias-black-ops-led-the-uk-to-drop-huawei-5g-book-reveals/?srsltid=AfmBOopICiosJ_OrLJshH8Hvh5XsjrMdXnaWYFfPhtMlbJg6G-7Q_XcV&utm_content=cmp-true

The UK was a prime example, seeing its 5G capacity and performance crumple into one of the worst in the EU and costing billions in the process. 

As a result China has become more self sufficient and is on an accelerated path to further self sufficiency. 

Erradicating TP-Link from US systems will do nothing to enhance national security and using Cisco might even make things riskier! Maybe that's tongue in cheek.

The internet is what it is, and has to be, for what we expect of it even if the US (and China too) would like to see it split apart in order to gain more 'control'. 

I believe Trump once put forward the idea of an 'American 5G' and had to be 'informed' of reality. If that is true (and I believe he suggested Apple create it) I'm sure it wasn't tongue in cheek. 

The Chinese embassy has told the UK to "stop creating trouble", after a businessman accused of being a spy for China was banned from the country.

The revelations about Yang Tengbo, who denies wrongdoing, and his links to Prince Andrew, have sparked renewed calls for the UK to designate China a threat to national security. 

The issue poses a dilemma for the government, which is hoping to strengthen ties with China to help boost economic growth and tackle shared issues like climate change. 

In the House of Commons on Monday a number of senior Conservatives called for tougher measures to protect the UK against covert Chinese influence.

BERLIN 

Labor supply in the German auto industry is expected to fall 6.3% by 2035, according to a recent study by the research institute Prognos commissioned by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA).

The fall is expected to stem from the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and an unspecified amount of decline in demand for workers.

In the 2019-2023 period, a decline of 46,000 jobs in Germany was attributed to the transition to EVs, and if this downward trend continues, the study estimates that the number of jobs in the auto sector could decline by 190,000 by 2035 as Germany has lost its competitiveness due to high tax rates and rising energy prices.

“A competitive location with the right political framework is needed so that as much added value and employment as possible stays here and new jobs are created in Germany,” the study said.

The VDA reported on the study after automaker Volkswagen announced Monday that it plans to shut at least three factories in Germany in addition to massive layoffs, sending shockwaves through the German auto sector.

Inflationary pressures, high energy costs, slow economic growth in Europe, the rise of the far right and competition by China and Tesla plagued German carmakers, whose exports reach $302.6 billion annually, as they make up a large portion of German exports. The sector was put under severe pressure to cut costs to remain competitive while demand was low.

melgross said:

mpantone said:

melgross said:

I keep telling people to not listen to the negative analysts. Three predicted disappointing iPhone sales this quarter, while two reported very good iPhone sales.

This is like any other judgment from a panel, you toss the high and low scores out and average out the rest. This isn't specific to financial analysts, they do this during figure skating at the Olympics, surfing contests, etc.

No one analyst is always right all the time so it's best to take the middle chunk. It's okay to lean one direction or another if you see a particularly reliable analyst on one side of the fence.

For a while, amateur analysts (bloggers) were beating the pros on a regular basis.

Many analysts are rated by Starmine which tracks their accuracy over time. Any longtime follower of Apple's business will remember some horrifically inaccurate analysts that many Apple media sites LOVED to quote (*cough* Munster *cough*). Some were so consistently wrong that it was easier to best on the opposite of their take. Some were longtime bears who always came up short (Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley was like this for years before she finally came around and saw the light).

Since the start of the pandemic Apple stopped providing their own guidance so it has forced analysts to actually use their brains instead of just picking up the Magic 8-Ball.

The era of Apple routinely smashing expectations is over. Apple is more of a value stock rather than a growth stock here in 2024. It's not 2009 anymore.

As I've said for a very long time, AppleInsider (and other tech media sites) really need to track the accuracy of the analysts they quote. Market researchers like CIPR are mostly pulling their numbers out of a body orifice (I'll give you three guesses but you'll only need one).

I’ve been following that for a long time as well. I’ve seen a lot of things over my time, but Apple is pulled down by a few of the same people every year.

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

verne arase said:

xRAHx said:

My conclusion:

Apple's management is perfectly free to leave the EU market or ship more or less worthless "light" versions of Apple technology into the EU, but Apple would not only lose access to a huge market, it would also lose access to the knowledge and support of a highly skilled workforce in the EU that not only uses Apple technologies, but also develops highly innovative technologies that Apple buys and puts an Apple label on.

Vestager is not a lone wolf, but is acting in line with the wishes of the 27 national governments in the EU, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania, Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Czech Republic, Austria, etc. 

The de facto influence of the EU goes far beyond this, because many non EU-member states in Europe cooperate closely with the EU for economic reasons or because they want to become members of the EU.

It is clear that China is now the world's economic leader, which is currently mainly due to the fact that it has the largest population. China is currently developing into the new sole (?) superpower. But in China, the government is not democratically elected. And all people and company managers in both the America and Europe need to think carefully about whether they want to be dominated by China and its vassals in Russia, North Korea and Iran in the near future.

Demographically speaking, China will be disappearing in the next ten years - probably sooner.

When you're a primarily agrarian society, you have lots of kids because you need the free labor to work the land and they're your retirement program.

When you industrialize and move into cities, kids are an expense - and if you're China and had a mandatory one child policy - you're waaayyy below the 2.1 children per family needed to sustain the population. China has overcounted their population by at least 100 million and their demographic pyramid shows they've got a rapidly aging workforce going into retirement with a very small number of children to support them all.

Russia's not far behind because no one wants to have kids in Russia, and the European powerhouses are following close on their heels behind Russia.

Germany's industries were all based on cheap Russian gas and a lot of that industry is trying to relocate to the United States where cheap gas still exists.

The saving demographic grace in the United States is the suburbs where US citizens continued to have kids, and the transition from agrarian to urban took place over a longer span of time.

Y'all ought to watch some Peter Zeihan on geopolitics - it can be quite illuminating.

BTW, Peter thinks that Apple is going away because they constantly made the wrong choice by staying in China, but being that Apple is one of the richest companies in the world I'm betting that they can bribe enough officials to keep the door open long enough for them and much of their supply chain to make their escape.

I'd argue that the supply chain, which employs millions of relatively well paid Chinese workers, is the reason that Apple is still allowed.

I try and catch Peter every morning, and I also watch Joe Blog, plus a few lesser known economists and economic observers. China didn't get rich before it got old, and worse, it is under a totalitarian leader,

Tom's Hardware had post that I found very interesting as it confirmed what had been both expected and rumored;

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/huawei-reportedly-facing-bad-ai-chip-yields-for-processors-made-at-chinese-fab-smic-report

Huawei reportedly facing bad AI chip yields for processors made at Chinese fab SMIC: Report

Four out of five Ascend 910B AI processors reportedly have defects.

And how is that relevant to an article on the EU??? 

Some background that you will find even more 'interesting' and something you casually failed to mention. 

I won't respond to any more of your thread derailing attempts. 

The Ascend 910B has been in production for a while now. Yields are an issue at SMIC but it's old news. 

I seriously doubt the 4 out of 5 claim but even if it were true, it still means the defective parts can very likely be used elsewhere. 

The story behind the yields is demand which is very high, and even late last year (when this news actually first hit the internet) most orders had already been shipped! 

In fact, Baidu alone is claimed to have ordered 1,600 Ascend 910B chips in August last year - with over 60% already shipped when the news broke. iFlyTek placed another large order and domestic demand hasn't slipped since either. 

Just last week Huawei said the immediate focus is not on nodes but optimisation although there have been persistent rumours of a 5nm chip this year. 

That's because parallel to current manufacturing capacity at SMIC, Huawei is building out a gigantic multi-billion dollar chip development and R&D facility in Shanghai. They are simply in the process of bringing everything together. As TSMC in the US knows, it takes time to build huge facilities. 

From your same source:

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/huawei-builds-major-tool-randd-center-in-shanghai-to-develop-lithography-and-fab-equipment-report-says

It's almost finished now and you don't put that kind of project into operation on a whim. Clearly, it will serve a purpose. 

The car division is also seeing massive YoY order growth and earlier this year it was the Huawei MDC chip (Ascend) solutions that were unable to keep up with demand. That seems to have been balanced out now but demand is still growing as new models come to market. 

https://cnevpost.com/2024/06/26/aito-m9-exceeds-100000-orders/

And more recently the Stelato S9 which is aiming for 120,000 unit capacity for the luxury model. 

Plus booming sales of the Mate 60/Pura 70 phone series. 

Capacity to satisfy such demand is always going to be an issue if demand doesn't fall off, but I'd say that's a nice problem to have. 

Nvidia mentioned a company and described it as a formidable competitor. That was Huawei. I'd say Nvidia has its finger on the AI Chip pulse better than you. 

Even with yield issues, Huawei is taking sales away from them. Do you think yields (independent of current state) have improved or worsened since last year? 

I ask because more and more HiSilicon chipsets are rolling out of SMIC. 

If you read Zeihan every day without contrasting his views you have a seriously unbalanced viewpoint. At the very least you should be taking in some of commentary debunking what he says. Then, and only then, should you form an opinion. 

He's an author trying to sell books. He's a content creator trying to sell views. And hasn't he been saying the same thing forever without it actually happening? 

But don't answer that. This is about the EU. 

Pretty sure that even you would agree that Western investment, notably EU investment, in semiconductor tech is worthwhile, and the fact that Huawei, SMIC, et al, are having difficulty transitioning to 5nm DUV multi patterning, kind of supports those investmenst. See ASML stock, indicating that sales are very good, without China.

You seem unaware that China's economy has slowed greatly, and Verne noted that China likely overstated its population by 100m, which I have also seen. I don't worry about debunking Zeihan, and you evidently don't either, since this would be an opportunity to do so.

Frankly, Zeihan has no credibility left (not that he ever had much to start with) and you having read something somewhere (given where you are picking up news from) is worthless. 

I didn't link to the huge amount of Zeihan debunking because this is about the EU! 

The same with the Ascend 910B.

It isn't the place. 

LOL!

You always go with the "it isn't the place" when you are wrong.,,

You are much too invested in China, and even the EU is having to roll back its relationship with China.

Except I'm not wrong. I gave information on the Ascend 910B and Zeihan is, frankly, a fool. Search: "Zeihan" "debunked".

I just see no point in talking about about something that has literally nothing to do with the topic. Why is that so hard for you to understand? 

Open up your own thread and I'll gladly set you straight but this thread isn't the place. 

longfang said:

kiltedgreen said:

9secondkox2 said:

The EU is an extortion racket. Change my mind. 

The US is a violent force destabilising peace across the world to suit its own ends. Change my mind.

Both the US and EU are just a bunch of entitled post colonial descendants who are pushing everyone else around with their plundered wealth. Change my mind.