spheric said:

I'm amazed that people are so blissfully unaware of what happened to the dollar-Euro exchange over the past year and a half. 

I'm surprised that I'm not too lazy to post this in response to your post;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/why-the-euro-has-tumbled-near-parity-to-the-us-dollar-quicktake

Me, I'm always concerned about a land war in Europe breaking out just after an extended pandemic, which is the reverse of a pandemic after the First World War. 

CurtisHight said:

tmay said:

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

waveparticle said:

StrangeDays said:

waveparticle said:

JWSC said:

Assuming this is true, the recent Shanghai lockdowns have provided Apple with a politically acceptable excuse (from a CCP perspective) for Apple to move a large percentage of its supply chain outside China.  Apple can point to 'supply chain instability' as a business reason, rather than the more concerning aspect of being reliant on business entities within a totalitarian regime that thinks little of human rights.  Apple doesn't want to talk about that with China for fear that it would put them in bad standing with CCP officials.  But the supply chain excuse can be viewed as non-political.

As defined by western culture. China fighting hard to combat covid is not regarded as human rights by western culture. The western culture regards freedom far supersedes human life. Because Christianity thinks our life is given by God. Death is not regarded termination of life. 

China's human rights issues aren't about its COVID measures. It's about their authoritarian regime that has no issue detaining citizens in labor camps, ethnic cleaning, forced organ harvesting, and disappearing (ie, murdering) political dissenters. See Tank Man.

You forgot to add producing weapons of mass destruction. lol

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/04/21/chinese-political-interference-has-western-spooks-worried

Perhaps the West is tiring of China's influence operations, which are an obvious softening up of the West prior to conflict over Taiwan. Good to hear that awareness of China's influence operations is becoming widespread.

How's that looking from your end?

US has been planning to contain China more than twenty years ago. But Chinese economy is less than one tenth of US at that time. So why does US plan so far ahead of the time? My answer is Western culture is a culture of hatred. George has discovered that. Unfortunately AI cancelled him. 

George supported the invasion by Russia of Ukraine, based on Russian propaganda that he believed, had a meltdown because people as myself called him out on it in the forums. Moderators had enough of his antics and he was banned.

EOS.

Actually, the U.S. was fine with China trade for the most part, but China decided that they didn't want to live by the existing rules of order that were the basis of global trade and that also provided a modicum of security to the world. Now China under Xi is running into problems of its own making, and will never exceed the U.S. GDP, all the while attempting to become a region military superpower before China's population implodes. As I have stated previously, and on numerous occasions, China could very well halve its population by 2060, to about the same population as India is today.

Wolf Warrior Diplomacy backfired.

“Now China under Xi is running into problems of its own making, and will never exceed the U.S.” Please elaborate.

China will never exceed the U.S. in economic power, nor as a global military power, though China will be a regional military power in the South China Sea. China will grow old before it gets rich, ie, it has a mushroomed demographics that is top heavy with seniors, and notably worse than countries in the West, so fewer workers supporting more seniors. Immigration is the primary reason that the U.S., Canada, and Australia, for example, are able to somewhat mitigate that problem. China has almost no immigration at all, and even its "new" rules that allow more than a single child, are not popular, as people can barely afford children at all.

Problems of "its" own making; productivity is nowhere close to the U.S. or its Allies, real estate is one of the few "safe" investments that average Chinese Citizens can make, yet tax policy for local governments encourages overbuilding. The authoritarian government of Xi has been rolling back the limited freedoms that Chinese people and companies had, and this too, will have an effect on the economy.

Notably though, China is in the midst of a very difficult fight to control COVID, with much less effective vaccines than the West at its disposal,  and the effect of that for the rest of the world is to encourage new supply chains that are more resilient elsewhere. 

waveparticle said:

dewme said:

rob53 said:

And where would they go? India? Definitely not the USA because no company would be able to find enough Americans willing to do the type of work needed. All the USA produces are lawyers and MBAs, not people who can actually use their hands and brains in combination. 

This is a somewhat pessimistic assessment - but it is unfortunately proving to be the reality of the current situation. Companies like TSMC who the US has been begging to set up shop in the US to fulfill the glorious promise of new jobs for US workers is struggling to find US workers willing to fill those jobs. They are bringing in workers from Taiwan who are willing to work in the US for a couple of years to gain experience and bolster their careers before returning home.

These are jobs that the company is paying workers to be trained to fill, so it's not like the bar is being set too high for people coming out of high school with an interest and willingness to be trained. Yeah, the training may involve some short term training assignments in Taiwan, but who doesn't want to have a company help them jump-start their careers while getting a unique opportunity to see a different part of the world - on someone else's dime? It's not like these US workers are being asked to join the Navy, which also provides the jump-start and see-other-parts-of-the-world things, but also involves working 24x7x365, having zero control over just about every aspect of your life, and being locked in a contract that you cannot walk away from because you don't like your job, hate your your boss, or your feelings are hurt. 

If nothing else, the Covid-19 pandemic has taught us that despite whatever levels of technology or automation we throw at solving problems or getting things done, the world still runs on people power. When you can't get the people doing the work that needs to be done, and making automation and supply chains work is still a people driven process, and regardless of the reason, be it man-made or disease borne, the whole system breaks down.

US’ chip bid ‘futile,’ Morris Chang says

TOO COSTLY: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co founder Morris Chang said the firm’s assumption that its Oregon chips would cost similar to chips in Taiwan was ‘naive’ 

• By Lisa Wang / Staff reporter
• • 

 

 

The US’ efforts to increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors is wasteful and an expensive exercise in futility due to a lack of manufacturing talent and high costs, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) founder Morris Chang (張忠謀) said on Tuesday. 

Chang made the remarks in an interview with the Brookings Institution in its latest podcast on the theme “Can semiconductor manufacturing return to the US?”

The semiconductor veteran said that the US today still has a good position in the semiconductor technology industry in terms of chip design capacity, but it lacks sufficient manufacturing talent.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co founder Morris Chang stands next to the company’s logo in an undated photograph.

Photo: Reuters

“I don’t really think it is a bad thing for the US actually. But, it’s a bad thing for trying to do semi manufacturing in the US,” Chang said.

The US used to have strong talent, like Taiwan does now, he said.

However, after the 1970s, young talent in the US migrated to high-paying professions such as finance or consulting, rather than working for technology companies such as GE or IBM, he said.

Since then, US companies just could not get enough business school graduates, he added.

Another challenge is high manufacturing costs, Chang said.

For example, TSMC thought that its factory in Oregon, which was established in 1997, would have costs comparable to Taiwan, but that assumption was proved to be “naive,” he said.

TSMC has attempted to improve the factory’s performance by changing managers and engineers, he said.

While a few years of effort did improve the factory’s performance, the difference in cost between the US and Taiwan remains almost the same, he added.

Chips made at the Oregon factory cost 50 percent more than those make TSMC’s factories in Taiwan, Chang said.

Regarding TSMC’s new US$12 billion factory in Arizona, Chang said he had retired by 2019, but that chairman Mark Liu (劉德音) made the decision at the insistence of the US government. 

TSMC, the sole chip supplier for Apple Inc’s iPhones, has said the Arizona factory is under construction, but aims to manufacture 5-nanometer chips by 2024.

Commenting on the US government’s efforts to increase onshore chip manufacturing by spending tens of billions dollars, Chang said: “I think it will be a very expensive exercise in futility.”

“The US will increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors somewhat,” Chang said. “All that will be at a very high cost increase, high unit costs, but non-competitive in the world market when you compete with factories like TSMC.”

Regarding Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger’s remarks that “Taiwan is not safe,” Chang said he assumes that there will not be a war.

“If there is no war, then I think the efforts to increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors is a wasteful and expensive exercise in futility, ”he said. “If there is a war, we all have a lot more than just chips to worry about.”

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2022/04/22/2003776996

“If there is no war, then I think the efforts to increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors is a wasteful and expensive exercise in futility, ”he said. “If there is a war, we all have a lot more than just chips to worry about.”

Yeah, because nobody, excepting Eastern Europeans anyway, believed that Russia would mount a full scale invasion of Ukraine, an invasion that Russia sucks so bad at, that they fall back to their standard genocide of civilians and destruction of cities. 

This might cause the PRC some reevaluation on their Taiwan policy, but ultimately. they want Taiwan, and by force, if necessary. 

dewme said:

rob53 said:

And where would they go? India? Definitely not the USA because no company would be able to find enough Americans willing to do the type of work needed. All the USA produces are lawyers and MBAs, not people who can actually use their hands and brains in combination. 

This is a somewhat pessimistic assessment - but it is unfortunately proving to be the reality of the current situation. Companies like TSMC who the US has been begging to set up shop in the US to fulfill the glorious promise of new jobs for US workers is struggling to find US workers willing to fill those jobs. They are bringing in workers from Taiwan who are willing to work in the US for a couple of years to gain experience and bolster their careers before returning home.

These are jobs that the company is paying workers to be trained to fill, so it's not like the bar is being set too high for people coming out of high school with an interest and willingness to be trained. Yeah, the training may involve some short term training assignments in Taiwan, but who doesn't want to have a company help them jump-start their careers while getting a unique opportunity to see a different part of the world - on someone else's dime? It's not like these US workers are being asked to join the Navy, which also provides the jump-start and see-other-parts-of-the-world things, but also involves working 24x7x365, having zero control over just about every aspect of your life, and being locked in a contract that you cannot walk away from because you don't like your job, hate your your boss, or your feelings are hurt. 

If nothing else, the Covid-19 pandemic has taught us that despite whatever levels of technology or automation we throw at solving problems or getting things done, the world still runs on people power. When you can't get the people doing the work that needs to be done, and making automation and supply chains work is still a people driven process, and regardless of the reason, be it man-made or disease borne, the whole system breaks down.

Perhaps the difficulty in finding employees is as much a by product of the pandemic as any other cause; there is now a very low rate of unemployment in the U.S., and high tech industries are no exception.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/598264-ten-states-hit-record-low-unemployment-rates/

rob53 said:

JWSC said:

Assuming this is true, the recent Shanghai lockdowns have provided Apple with a politically acceptable excuse (from a CCP perspective) for Apple to move a large percentage of its supply chain outside China.  Apple can point to 'supply chain instability' as a business reason, rather than the more concerning aspect of being reliant on business entities within a totalitarian regime that thinks little of human rights.  Apple doesn't want to talk about that with China for fear that it would put them in bad standing with CCP officials.  But the supply chain excuse can be viewed as non-political.

And where would they go? India? Definitely not the USA because no company would be able to find enough Americans willing to do the type of work needed. All the USA produces are lawyers and MBAs, not people who can actually use their hands and brains in combination. 

Oh for fucks sake.

The U.S. is globally dominant in a substantial number of industries, so your statement is complete bullshit.

This coming from a guy with a degree in Mechanical Engineering that makes shit every day, so yeah, using my hands and brain in combination.