tmay

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tmay
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  • Apple wants all of TSMC's 2nm chips, so they sent Jeff Williams in secret

    tmaytmay
    blastdoor said:
    tmay said:
    I very much doubt that Apple would be inclined to purchase 2nm SOC's for the equivalent of a "year's worth of revenue" at $173 B, given that Apple is typically about 25% of TSMC revenue (something on the order of $18 B in 2023). 

    Still, what would Apple want to do with all of those additional transistors that they are "allegedly"  purchasing? 
    That’s an interesting question. I hope someone can improve my answer because I’m making wild guesses. 

    I’ll guess that apple wants to fill 10 data centers with 2 million M# Ultra chips per data center, so 20 million M# Ultras. An ultra uses about 9 times as many transistors as an A chip of the same generation, so that would be the equivalent of 180 million iPhones (a little less than a year production).

    presumably the cost per transistor of an ultra is higher than for an A chip because yields are lower for bigger chips. 

    So… maybe that’s part of the story? Still, though, I’m not sure that’s enough to explain it, and I’m telling a pretty radical story 
    Apple could certainly load up a few data centers, and I'd be remiss if I didn't note all of the opportunities for Vision Pro that would encourage that, from streaming to cloud assisted content ediitng and creation.

    Gaming might be another driver, though given Apple's history, I wouldn't expect such.

    I postulated years ago in an AI post that Apple could enter the massively multiplayer game market, and stream Metal code in lieu of finished frames, so that edge processing is still a driver for hardware. It's an interesting concept, and gains importance as the last of the Intel processors drop off. I doubt we will ever see such a thing.

    I just don't see that Apple is buying that asserted level of production that the article claims.
    blastdoorwatto_cobra

  • If China invades Taiwan, TSMC can wreck Apple's chip production line remotely

    tmaytmay
    blastdoor said:
    The best deterrence would be for the Allies to show they can scale up defense production. Right now, they’re kind of trying but kind of failing. Nothing will encourage China more than a Russian win in Ukraine due to a failure to supply Ukraine with enough anmo. That would be a clear sign of western weakness, and Taiwan could basically kiss its freedom goodbye.
    Exactly right.

    I would note that the U.S. and Germany, have been especially "timid" in allowing their weapons systems to interdict Russian forces in Russia, as well as destroy Russian military production at the source. Of note, recently developed Russian systems have fallen to Western weapons systems that are decades old; Russian hardware just isn't that great.

    melgross said:
    avon b7 said:
    It's all pretty much nonsense from a chip perspective.

    Only a tiny fraction of the world's chip output is on cutting edge nodes. What makes the world go around is everything else that isn't cutting edge. The much older, more mature nodes. 

    There are strategic commercial reasons behind China not having access to cutting edge nodes so the most likely outcome of hostilities is old-fashioned, ehem, 'anonymous' physical destruction, a la Nord Stream, for example and the bulk of our telecommunications runs over undersea cabling too so that is guaranteed to get the snip if things go wrong. Satellite communications will also be interfered with. 

    That would see a lot of already fabricated chips with very little to do. 

    Sanctions have only accelerated China's chip efforts and determination and, as we move beyond silicon, new solutions will come to market (phototonics are showing promise). Possibly for highly specialised fields first but 'kill switches' are simply spanners in the works when it comes to fabrication. 

    Apple took a huge risk in putting all its chip related eggs into one basket mostly in Taiwan. It's paid off so far but the risk (political, economic, natural disaster or otherwise) remains and they are seeking to change that slowly. A wise move. 





    This is one area in which we can agree. Telling China that we’re not going to sell you the most advanced chips is just going to spur them on to spend a few dozen more billion on figuring out how to do it themselves. China is not Russia. Russia hasn’t the talent or money to compete. China, even with its current economic problems, does.
    China's economy is in shambles, so the level of effort to recreate the entire supply chain to compete in leading edge nodes isn't something that will happen very rapidly, if at all. It certainly will be more than a "few dozen more billion".

    China not having access to leading edge nodes for AI, for example, maintains the edge that the U.S. and the Western World have on weapons development, anti-ship missiles, as an example, a primary constraint on any attempt of invasion by China.

    The greatest danger to Taiwan is though the end of the decade, as the potential window for a successful invasion closes.


    ronn

  • If China invades Taiwan, TSMC can wreck Apple's chip production line remotely

    tmaytmay
    For more on this subject, I recommend "World on the Brink; How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" by Dmitri Alperovitch.

    Washington Post interview;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwfGrjVjgas&t=918s

    ronncg27

  • Apple wants all of TSMC's 2nm chips, so they sent Jeff Williams in secret

    tmaytmay
    I very much doubt that Apple would be inclined to purchase 2nm SOC's for the equivalent of a "year's worth of revenue" at $173 B, given that Apple is typically about 25% of TSMC revenue (something on the order of $18 B in 2023). 

    Still, what would Apple want to do with all of those additional transistors that they are "allegedly"  purchasing? 
    libertyandfree

  • Smartphone addiction is real, and we all probably need to do something about it

    tmaytmay
    M68000 said:
    I'm not buying it.  The fact that I'm nearsighted has NOTHING to do with smartphones.  I was nearsighted decades before smartphones were invented.  I was nearsighted when phones had to be wired to the wall.

    And... addiction?  Seriously?  That just trivializes what a real addiction is.  Heroin is addictive.  Caffeine is addictive.  Phones aren't.
    You are welcome to search online for info from professionals in eye care and you will find what they say.
    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/nearsightedness/symptoms-causes/syc-20375556

    Risk factors

    Certain risk factors may increase the likelihood of developing nearsightedness, including:

    • Genetics. Nearsightedness tends to run in families. If one of your parents is nearsighted, your risk of developing the condition is increased. The risk is higher if both parents are nearsighted.
    • Prolonged close-up activities. Reading or doing other close-up activities for a long time is associated with an increased risk of nearsightedness.
    • Screen time. Studies have shown that children who use computers or smart devices for long periods have a greater risk of developing nearsightedness.
    • Environmental conditions. Some studies support the idea that not spending enough time outdoors may increase the risk of nearsightedness.
    I'm so old that I remember people telling me not to sit so close to the (then b&w) TV. 

    gatorguy