Xed
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Apple Vision Pro is not the iPhone, and faces an incredibly steep uphill climb
I do hope we see an AR-only product down the road, but I do wonder what that might look like since Google Glass was panned so heavily — and rightly so — for being creepy. I feel like the only way around that is to remove the external cameras from an AR-only device so that surreptitious video recording can't occur; or, does Apple's credibility with personal security over Google, plus 11+ years of putting high-performance cameras in everyone's pockets changed how we feel about such products as a society?Mike Wuerthele said:
I absolutely am thinking long term. From the article:alandail said:
you're not thinking long term.Mike Wuerthele said:
Yeah. It launched into a market that already had successes and very clear use cases for the everyman. AVP is launching into a market that doesn't.bluefire1 said:
Agree. in 2008, the iPhone was already the fourth best selling mobile device in the country, as people continued to replace their mobile phones with this innovative disruptive device.cpsro said:IMHO the iPhone was a success from the very beginning--even before it was in customer hands. Google recognized it, too.People need mobile devices, but who needs the Vision Pro and why? Time will tell.
This Apple's 3rd new computing platform that changed the way people use computers
Macintosh
iPhone
Vision Pro
Macintosh in 1984. There were barely any apps, but it redefined how computers worked. At my job (NASA), we started buying them a day after release and for the next year or two we bought 1 of every app that came out to see what we could use it for. That's how few apps there were. It had the minimum hardware necessary to make that user interface work and cost $2499 ($7238 in today's dollars).
40 years later, all computers work like that Macintosh.
iPhone in 2007 - here weren't any apps other than the ones Apple built. There was no 3rd party App Store for a full year after release. Again had the minimum hardware necessary to make that user interface work. Redefined how mobile computing worked. Today all phones and tablets work like that first iPhone. The pointing device from the Mac was replace by your finger.
Vision Pro - At release it's already well ahead in apps of where Macintosh and iPhone were. Like Macintosh, it's the minimum hardware required to implement a new way to use computes. Augmented reality. To nail augmented reality, it has to look like reality. The pointing device is now your eyes. Like Macintosh, the first release is expensive. And the first release is heavy. But something went seriously wrong if 5 to 10 years from now devices that descend from or are inspired by Vision Pro aren't the dominate computing platform.
Imagine a future model that isn't much bigger or heavier than sunglasses, shows your eyes while you use it, has all day battery life, had robust AI, has fully shared experiences with other people if they're in the room with you or not, and runs every app you need. What do you even need a phone for with a device like that? What do you need a computer for?
No matter how many units are available, sold, or coming in early 2024, no matter how loud Apple yells that the Apple Vision Pro is a success now, no matter if the stock analysts predict doom or triumph now, the whole-year 2024 is only the start of the saga and climb. I agree with the sentiment that Apple Vision Pro is right now in essence a paid developer kit unleashed on the world.
From the start, developers are the crank or starter motor that starts the big engine, and users are the fuel that makes the product run. Apple hopes the killer app will pop out, as it has before, but nothing is guaranteed.
This is a story told in the fullness of time. This is a story told in the non-Pro Apple Vision, and whatever the "Apple Glass" ultimately turns out to be.
This is also a story about how the rest of the world reacts to the hardware, and what competing vendors do in response to the gear. Meta's, HTC's, and others' responses and timelines will perhaps be the most telling on how afraid the rest of the market is.
As far as the absolute measure of success goes, Apple can wait effectively forever. It doesn't need to be profitable out of the gate, as the company has a stack of money that would make the most covetous dragon jealous to weather the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune with little or no impact to the company as a whole."
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Apple Vision Pro is not the iPhone, and faces an incredibly steep uphill climb
1) I'm finding it weird to compare it to the iPhone. Was the Apple Watch negatively compared to the iPhone when it was introduced? If it was, I don't recall. I remember looking at the Apple Watch and thinking that this will a great way to help reduce my overall screen time and iPhone use.jimh2 said:Do all the naysayers posting comments about how this product is not the iPhone realize that Apple knows that as well. Developers will lead the way coming up with uses that the rest of us have never thought of. Sales will follow as they always do. Innovation does not always equal sales, but portions of innovations make their way into other products.
2) Google, Spotify, and Netflix want this to be like the original iPhone as they are forcing users to use the web apps.
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Apple Vision Pro is not the iPhone, and faces an incredibly steep uphill climb
1) I don't see how it will replace any of those things. The iPhone, at least, was a device that replaced other cellphones, an iPod, and was finally a decent computing device in your pocket throughout all day. I've even known many people that stopped using PCs at home because the iPhone was a much better tool. The iPad is an offshoot of that OS and UI for those that really preferred what Apple offered in a handheld device that wasn't a traditional PC OS.imergingenious said:I agree it’s not the iPhone and it’s got a steep climb ahead, but not in the way the original author intended. It’s not the iPhone because the iPhone doesn’t replace one’s need for a PC/Mac or iPad, whereas the Vision Pro line of products will end up replacing the iPhone, watch, iPad and even Mac for most people. Once AVP evolves to the point where you can comfortably wear it around all day, all other physical screens become redundant. They just need to include cellular connectivity, have longer battery life, and make it lighter/more comfortable. All inevitable advancements with future versions and this transition will start faster than many expect.
2) How exactly do you see if evolving into an "all day' device? It's a VR headset with AR only being possible because of the cameras on it. There is no see-through lenses which means it can't be adopted for driving or many other tasks people tend to do throughout the day. I've ordered one and yet fully expect my Watch, iPhone, and Mac to not sit ideal during the day.
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Apple Vision Pro is not the iPhone, and faces an incredibly steep uphill climb
Yes. Even after all life on this planet is long gone and our sun has died out and there is nothing remaining to remember anything of brief existence as a species, this will forever be the first version of the Apple Vision Pro.termsofuse said:Anybody believe this version of the VP is forever? -
Apple Vision Pro is not the iPhone, and faces an incredibly steep uphill climb
1% the first year. As I recall they did that. They had at least one of Blackberry's co-CEOs thinking the UI wasn't a "real" demo because he didn't think a mobile system could respond like that and Steve Balmer lambasting what he called an expensive (can't remember the value), fully subsidized phone. We also had Google change their entire direction to mimic the iPhone instead of Blackberry and Nokia, and an entire change to Apple's epic paradigm shift in how a mobile phone should look, function, and work. Of the many major successes Apple has had I look at the iPhone and how it changed the industry as being one of its most prolific and widespread.. and I feel that occurred as soon as Steve Jobs brought it out.macxpress said:
True, success can be measured in many ways. I remember when iPhone was first announced all Apple wanted to achieve was 1% marketshare. So to Apple, it was a success. Today, every Apple product seems to need to sell as well as the iPhone or else it's a failure (even when it's not). Everyone just needs to give this product time. It will not be as successful as today's iPhone and it may never get there and that's okay. It doesn't mean it's a failure of a product.Xed said:
The iPhone was absolutely a success right away, and right from the moment it was announced by Jobs. Sales are a different metric, and Apple sold all the units they could. So much so that they stopped production of the original iPhone many months ahead of the iPhone 3G which left a vacuum which allowed many to sell their used iPhone for considerably more than what they bought it for.Massiveattack87 said:iPhone was not a success from the beginning on. iPhone needed more than 3 years to break into the mass market.
When your competition is basically copying every little thing you do then you're doing something right and that's the case today with Apple and its products. I don't see this being any different with AVP going forward.
Again, everyone needs to give this product a good 2-3yrs to mature a little more and let Apple work things out. There's gonna be some stumbling and fumbling along the way. It's all part of learning and making the product better.
PS: The comedic biopic Blackberry (2023) was very enjoyable.
