sdw2001

Stabitha_Christie said:

sdw2001 said:

Stabitha_Christie said:

sdw2001 said:

Watching the absolute meltdown people are having is really something.  Those who didn’t support Trump to begin with are the loudest. But the center right is up there as well.

I would just say this. I wouldn’t bet against Trump. I don’t know whether or not this tariff strategy will work, but I’d give it better than 50-50 odds. He’s trying to reset the playing field and get countries to renegotiate. If you will look at what he’s doing compared to his past behavior, it’s exactly what he always does. He takes a maximalist position, then is happy when he gets some of what he wants.  There was no way to do this on trade without short-term pain.  We’re certainly seeing that now.   

There is a bigger picture here. It involves lower energy prices, reduced fraud and waste, and lower interest rates. One of the ways of achieving that is to force money into US treasuries, which is exactly what is happening right now. One problem Trump faced upon ansduming office is the stock market was overvalued from a P/E perspective.  It was due for a correction.  I have to wonder if they just decided to take the bath now.   

So we’ll see what happens, as the orange man likes to say.  Contrary to popular belief, he doesn’t have a bunch of idiots around him and isn’t just doing these things willy-nilly.   Hopefully, they work.

You can tell it's a cult because they just make things up to rationalize what is happening. This is just incredibly detached from reality, Trump has said the tariffs are here to stay and aren't part of a negotiating strategy but here we have a cult member insisting that is what they are. But yeah... I guess making things up is just to reassure us how well things are planned? What a bunch of clowns.

You can tell it's TDS, because they just have to engage in ad hominem attacks for no apparent reason.   

"Trump has said the tariffs are here to stay and aren't part of a negotiating strategy."   

I haven't heard him say that, but I don't follow every word, so let's assume it's accurate.  So? The last thing he is going to do is admit it's all a tactic.  Not only does it make sense that he would say this, but he's done exactly this kind of thing his entire career.  It's not about liking the tactic or disliking it....thinking it's right or wrong.  It's about understanding how the man operates.  Do you really disagree with this? 

As for plans, let me get this straight:  You honestly think Trump and his economic team are just pulling this out of their butts? Have you listened to people like Scott Bessant and Howard Lutnick?  Do you know the qualifications these men have?  Now, if you think the plan will fail, or it's not worth the short-term pain, or any other objection...fine.  But to claim there is no plan? That's an unserious as you claim the Trump admin is.  

I’ll take you at your word that you have not heard talk about his reasons for the tariffs. But that is also an admission on your part that you aren’t really informed on the subject.

Anyway, Trump and his team have given multiple conflicting answers for why they are imposing tariffs. In no particular order, they are for national security, a short-term negotiation tactic, not a short-term negotiating tactic but a rebuilding of the world order, addressing trade deficits, and intended to drive domestic manufacturing. That literally cannot give a consistent or coherent answer for their actions. 

I honestly do not believe they know what they are doing. Why? Because there is no evidence to support the claim that they have a plan. They can’t articulate what the plan is. They give contradictory explanations. They say things that are demonstrably false (examples: these aren’t reciprocal tariffs. The other countries don’t pay the tariffs). Heck, you are insisting there is a plan, but you can’t articulate it. All you have managed to do is fawn over Lutnick and Bessent. 

So we are back to this being a cult. Your entire response is devoid of any fact, and by your own admission, you aren’t informed on what Trump has been saying. Your argument is based on your blind faith in Trump and the people around him. You have offered nothing of substance. It’s a cult. 

I didn't say I hadn't heard the reasons.  I said I didn't follow every word.  I follow the admin and politics very closely.  

Anyway, Trump and his team have given multiple conflicting answers for why they are imposing tariffs. In no particular order, they are for national security, a short-term negotiation tactic, not a short-term negotiating tactic but a rebuilding of the world order, addressing trade deficits, and intended to drive domestic manufacturing. That literally cannot give a consistent or coherent answer for their actions. 

What you view as conflicting answers, I view as multiple, interconnected reasons for the actions.  They are trying to reset the game board, one that has been set "against us" for 80 years.  

I honestly do not believe they know what they are doing. Why? Because there is no evidence to support the claim that they have a plan. They can’t articulate what the plan is. They give contradictory explanations. They say things that are demonstrably false (examples: these aren’t reciprocal tariffs. The other countries don’t pay the tariffs). Heck, you are insisting there is a plan, but you can’t articulate it. All you have managed to do is fawn over Lutnick and Bessent. 

So we are back to this being a cult. Your entire response is devoid of any fact, and by your own admission, you aren’t informed on what Trump has been saying. Your argument is based on your blind faith in Trump and the people around him. You have offered nothing of substance. It’s a cult. 

The plan has been discussed in detail, particularly by Bessant.  You can accuse me of "fawning" all you want, but he's gone through it in several interviews.   Lutnick hasn't been quite as detailed.  Put simply, the plan is to use tariffs to negotiate a better trade environment (get other nations to drop their tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers), take in the tariffs that actually are imposed, and re-shore manufacturing.  Secondarily, the idea is to push money into U.S. Treasuries rather than stocks (which were somewhat overvalued from a P/E perspective), lower energy costs, interest rates and deficits.   These are all interconnected parts, obviously.  

As for "blind faith," that is neither true--nor does it make sense.   I already stated I didn't know if it would work in the long term.  I also said that given his track record, I wouldn't bet against him.  Love him or hate him, the man has consistently been underestimated since at least 2015.  Prior to Covid, it's hard to argue his economic policies weren't successful.  Take any measure you want, from real income, to GDP, to unemployment, to inflation.   

So, if noting past success, pointing out what they've explained, stating that I don't know if it will work long term (etc) makes me a cult member, you're welcome to think that.  It's certainly easier than making an actual argument.  

DAalseth said:

sdw2001 said:

I don’t know whether or not this tariff strategy will work, but I’d give it better than 50-50 odds.

Why? Why would you do that? His first term he tried the same thing albeit on a smaller scale and the US lost, badly. He started a trade war with China and China won, big time, they came out vastly stronger on the world stage than at the start. Now he’s doubling down on trying to tariff his way to prosperity. What’s that old line about insanity being trying the same failed strategy over and over and expecting the same result. 

What on earth would make you think someone who has gone bankrupt as many times as Trump would have a clue about international trade? Why would you trust the judgement of someone with no macroeconomic training or experience, who when given a chance the first time failed by any and every measure. Why would you believe in him to do better this time with the same failed policies he failed with the first time?

We’ve seen this movie before.

Because your comment about China is completely inaccurate.  That's why.  As is your comment about him "failing by every measure."  That's just bizarro-world Trump Derangement coming through.   His first term saw massive increases in real income, low inflation, low unemployment, and a dozen other positive economic indicators.  That is, before Covid.  You know, Covid.... when you and yours demanded we shut the country down through the election?  When Trump was called a murderer for wanting to get back to life?  Even with the economic carnage that the Left demanded, the economy was well into a robust recovery by the end of 2020.  

As for Trump "going bankrupt," that is misleading, and I think you know it.  He never declared personal bankruptcy. He did use Chapter 11 bankruptcy with business numerous times.  If it makes you feel good to say "he went bankrupt," go ahead.  It has nothing to do with his business acumen.  If anything, going Chapter 11 six times and still coming out on top is impressive.  

Stabitha_Christie said:

sdw2001 said:

Watching the absolute meltdown people are having is really something.  Those who didn’t support Trump to begin with are the loudest. But the center right is up there as well.

I would just say this. I wouldn’t bet against Trump. I don’t know whether or not this tariff strategy will work, but I’d give it better than 50-50 odds. He’s trying to reset the playing field and get countries to renegotiate. If you will look at what he’s doing compared to his past behavior, it’s exactly what he always does. He takes a maximalist position, then is happy when he gets some of what he wants.  There was no way to do this on trade without short-term pain.  We’re certainly seeing that now.   

There is a bigger picture here. It involves lower energy prices, reduced fraud and waste, and lower interest rates. One of the ways of achieving that is to force money into US treasuries, which is exactly what is happening right now. One problem Trump faced upon ansduming office is the stock market was overvalued from a P/E perspective.  It was due for a correction.  I have to wonder if they just decided to take the bath now.   

So we’ll see what happens, as the orange man likes to say.  Contrary to popular belief, he doesn’t have a bunch of idiots around him and isn’t just doing these things willy-nilly.   Hopefully, they work.

You can tell it's a cult because they just make things up to rationalize what is happening. This is just incredibly detached from reality, Trump has said the tariffs are here to stay and aren't part of a negotiating strategy but here we have a cult member insisting that is what they are. But yeah... I guess making things up is just to reassure us how well things are planned? What a bunch of clowns.

You can tell it's TDS, because they just have to engage in ad hominem attacks for no apparent reason.   

"Trump has said the tariffs are here to stay and aren't part of a negotiating strategy."   

I haven't heard him say that, but I don't follow every word, so let's assume it's accurate.  So? The last thing he is going to do is admit it's all a tactic.  Not only does it make sense that he would say this, but he's done exactly this kind of thing his entire career.  It's not about liking the tactic or disliking it....thinking it's right or wrong.  It's about understanding how the man operates.  Do you really disagree with this? 

As for plans, let me get this straight:  You honestly think Trump and his economic team are just pulling this out of their butts? Have you listened to people like Scott Bessant and Howard Lutnick?  Do you know the qualifications these men have?  Now, if you think the plan will fail, or it's not worth the short-term pain, or any other objection...fine.  But to claim there is no plan? That's an unserious as you claim the Trump admin is.  

quakerotis said:

you wanted your comic book villain?

Yeah, it’s not like this a normal business competition dispute or anything. 

So I’m going to buy a $120 head strap for my $3500 Apple Vision Pro? Unreal.