vvswarup

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vvswarup
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  • Brean Capital tells investors to ignore 'noisy' supply chain, focus on longterm iPhone success

    ac1234 said:
    vvswarup said:

    Wall Street believes that making money and investing in the future are mutually exclusive. To please Wall Street to the degree you want, Apple will have to throw the baby out with the bathwater and abandon the very principles that have brought Apple to its current position. I don't think it's worth it.
    Nonsense - Apple has to articulate and demonstrate an exciting trajectory beyond the iPhone.  So far the market is not impressed with what they have seen vis a vis HOMEKIT / Beats / Apple TV / streaming content negotiation failure / etc.
    The market wants to see something beyond the iPhone, but the only way for Apple to "demonstrate an exciting trajectory beyond the iPhone" would be to stop being Apple because as of now, I don't think there's any product ready for mass production. Apple would have to pull a Google or Amazon and reveal whatever it's working on inside its R&D facilities. It would probably go a long way towards pleasing Wall Street but it's abandoning the very principles that helped Apple succeed.

    Google isn't that much better than Apple. Google is still as married to search as Apple is married to the iPhone. Just as HomeKit/Beats are products/services designed to bolster the iPhone rather than replace, Android is a platform designed to create an economic moat around search. The difference between Google and Apple is that Google is very public about whatever it has going on inside its R&D facilities. The company spends a lot of time talking about its pet projects whereas Apple doesn't say a word. The media has to just guess. 

    In summary, I don't think Apple should get defensive over every little thing the media likes to say. 
    damonfcornchip
  • Brean Capital tells investors to ignore 'noisy' supply chain, focus on longterm iPhone success

    sog35 said:
    jkichline said:
    Wrong. When Tim Cook took the reigns of Apple on August 24, 2011, the stock price was $370 or so. Tim Cook has been at the helm when stock soared to over $700 per share, guided Apple through a 7 to 1 stock split and massive buyback program. The stock is currently "low" at $105 per share. If you adjust for the split, you're looking at $735 per share equivalent. So doubling the stock price is some how an "absolute piece of shit" during an economic downturn?
    When the stock soared from $370 in Aug2011 to $700 in Sept2012 that was momentum from the Jobs era. 
    There is no way Cook did anything that significantly changed the stock price in 12 months.

    The last 3 years have been all Cook, starting with the release of the iPhone5.
    Since then the stock has been up about 2% each year. What an utter failure. Especially considering that profits and revenue are up 60%.

    Again Cook is great at operations.  But he is HORRIBLE at PR and pleasing shareholders and investors. He allows all the FUD to fester and that leads to panic selling. He either needs to hire someone who knows how to handle Wall Street/investor fears or resign. 2% stock growth during the companies most lucritive era is unacceptable. Now imagine if profits only grew 10%?  Where would the stock be then? 
    The only way Tim Cook is going to satisfy you is if he turns Apple into another Google, Amazon or Facebook. Amazon has been spending money like there's no tomorrow for twenty years. The company has an aversion to making money. The Street has rewarded Amazon for its profligacy. They then look at Apple and conclude on the basis of Apple earning record profits and cash flow that Apple isn't investing in its future and instead, it is is simply spending all of its time on shaving off a couple of millimeters of thickness of the iPhone and stuffing a better processor/camera into it.

    Wall Street believes that making money and investing in the future are mutually exclusive. To please Wall Street to the degree you want, Apple will have to throw the baby out with the bathwater and abandon the very principles that have brought Apple to its current position. I don't think it's worth it.
    jbdragoncornchip
  • Brean Capital tells investors to ignore 'noisy' supply chain, focus on longterm iPhone success

    sog35 said:
    Apple is down another $6 billion today.  Over $16 billion the last two days.  Thats a WHOLE YEAR of Dividends.

    Yet Cook does absolutely NOTHING. He sits on his ASS and does NOTHING.

    The stock is down over $200 BILLION because of totally baseless LIES and SPECULATION.  Yet Cooks does nothing.  He sits there on his ASS and worries about gay rights instead of the $200 BILLION that shareholders and employees have lost.  He spent $120 BILLION on buyback and half of that is now in the RED.  IN a few weeks the entire buyback will be in the RED and will be a total waste of money.

    Stock is down $16 billion because of a fucking $300 million tax bill.  How the FUCK does that makes sense. Where the FUCK is Tim Cook to stop the bleeding? 
    I get it that you're upset that Apple's stock is getting hammered based on lies. I think it's a travesty that despite posting twice as much revenue and profit than Google or Amazon while still showing better revenue growth, Apple trades at a low P/E. What do you want Tim Cook to do to "stop the bleeding?" 
    cornchip
  • Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

    sog35 said:

    One of my concerns with Apple is like all technology: soon you will reach a point when for the price people around the world will say their phone is fast enough with sufficient features that upgrades will mean less and less. Might be interesting to see the age of who owns iPhones and how frequently they upgrade. Eventually you reach a point of good enough. 

    People have been saying this for decades.

    From PC, laptop, tablet, smartphone.

    The computing device will NEVER be good enough. There will always be advancements that will move a large chunk of the market to upgrade.  Specific form factors of computing devices do get commoditized, but not computing devices in general.  And that's why it was so important for Apple to get into the wearables game.

    The real vision of Apple should not be to keep growing unit sales per year. The real vision is to grow the user base and then keep increasing services revenue.  Every year Apple should add more services to the ecosystem to grow revenue.  Chasing higher and higher unit sales is a fools game. The real goal for Apple is too have 1 billion users by 2017, and 1.5 billion users by 2020.

    Then each year they would just need to add services to the ecosystem. Either by internal development or acquisition.  These are the services I'd like too see Apple add to the ecosystem by 2020:

    1. Netflix - buy them 
    2. Bank / Creditcard - buy a bank if necessary
    3. Security Monitoring
    4. Expand Cloud services
    5. Search and online ads
    6. Cars
    7. Auto insurance
    8. Medical equipment
    9. Real Estate transaction services
    10. Live TV content
    11. Video sharing - buy Vimeo

    With 2 billion users the company will get growth simply from services revenue. At that point hardware sales is just the icing on the cake.  This is the VISION that Tim Cook should be preaching to Wall Street.
    I see where you're going with this now. You want Apple to build up a massive user base and then monetize that user base with services revenue. You want Apple to become like Google and Facebook. I will give you credit for going all-in on the idea that Apple should just throw in the towel and show Wall Street exactly what it wants to see because Wall Street sure does love the word "user base."

    But the problem with buying growth in the user base is that after a certain point, the cost of each additional percentage point in user base growth will exceed the revenue growth that that additional percentage point in user base generates. It's the law of diminishing returns. This drop-off is even more pronounced when it comes to services that have low barriers to entry. For example, cloud storage is turning into a price war. 5GB of storage space from Google is the same as 5GB of storage space from Dropbox or Amazon. 

    In summary, I'm glad you're not the CEO of Apple. 
    xamaxMacProsingularity
  • Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

    sog35 said:

    Maybe Apple should go private /s
    Tim Cooks passion for civil rights is a shining example to all CEO's and frankly Jobs chose correctly on who to succeed him. IMHO he's been fantastic for Apple.
    I have ZERO problem with Cook's passion for civil rights.

    I do have a problem that Cook takes time to push civil rights but does NOTHING to counter the flatout lies that the media spews about the company.

    I do have a problem that Cook takes time to push civil rights but does NOTHING to change the message that Apple is more than just the iPhone Company.

    IMO, Tim Cook is the worst CEO on Wall Street when you take into consideration all the advantages Apple has as a company.  The last 3 years they have been growing revenue by 30% and EPS by 40%. They have the most powerful and respected brand in the world. They have the most important product in the history of man (iPhone).  Cook has $250 billion at his disposal. Yet even with all of this Cook has not been able to stabilize the stock price. The stock is up a pitiful 2% the last 3 years while breaking every profit metric know to man.  The sole reason is because Tim Cook has been an utter FAILURE at controlling the message of the company.  Wall Street looks at Apple as a pure hardware company that is selling hardware that is near peak saturation. That is a FUCKING FAILURE of Tim Cook. 

    Instead of using his time championing Civil rights Cook needs to get his ass in gear and start changing the message on the street that Apple is much more than just iPhone Inc.  He needs to show that the install base for Mac users, iPhone users, iPad users, Watch users, AppleTV users are all growing.  He needs to show that the econsystem is stronger than ever and that users are paying more for services on the ecosystem.  He needs to show that the install base will grow in the next year, 5 years, and 10 years.  And that they will continue to add services that will grow exponentially as the install base grows.  But Cook has not done this. He has allowed Wall Street to focus soley on quarterly iPhone units.  Cook needs to be fired immediatly and replaced by a CEO who understands how to articulate the vision of the company and not be stuck on unit sales or other short-term metrics that Wall Street can manipulate.

    Tim Cook is like that clown used car salesman who says hes successful because he sold more cars this year than last year.
    Any jackass on the street can say that.  We need a CEO who can see the company VISION a decade from now and preach the message that Apple is on tract to reach that vision even if their are small bumps in the road.  Look at what the Tesla CEO preaches.  We need someone like that.  We don't need a damn bean counter like Cook who gives us information that a spreadsheet can.

    Its a FUCKING JOKE that lesser companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix are killing it this year and are all near all time highs and have valuations that put Apple to shame. And the only reason is because they have CEO's that are controlling the message on the street while the Apple CEO is NOTHING and sits on his ASS all day.  Its also a joke that if Apple shows a slight dip in iPhone sales next quarter the stock will drop to $90 and lose over $200 billion in value, just because the CEO has allowed Wall Street to be Apple's PR department.
    You say that Tim Cook needs to point out that the install base for Mac users, iPhone users, iPad users, and so on is growing. Tim Cook has certainly pointed these things out during every quarterly earnings call. He has said time and time again that he believes in the viability of those platforms. What more do you want him to say? 

    I agree that in spite of Apple making twice as much money as Google or Amazon and yet still posting better revenue/profit growth than either company, Apple's stock is so undervalued. The only way Tim Cook can do anything to change the perception about Apple is if he reduces secrecy and I don't think he should do that.
    xamax