Apple seen selling 1.4 million $600 "Kindle Killer" tablets in 2010
Even before it's been validated with a formal introduction, Apple's eagerly-awaited tablet device is being positioned by some members of the investment community as a device that could sell 1.4 million units in its first 9 months, just as others reiterate claims that it'll thrash Amazon's Kindle device in the process.
In a reactionary report released Monday afternoon, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said his own conversations with Taiwanese component suppliers last week reaffirm his belief that Apple will in all likelihood ship a tablet by March, with an unveiling coming as early as late January.
He estimates Apple will initially be capable of moving 162,000 of these devices per month, for an average yearly run rate of about 2 million units.
"For purposes of sensitivity, assuming the tablet comes out in March 2010, we believe Apple would sell around 1.4 units at a $600 [average selling price] in 2010," he wrote. "The tablet is not yet included in Street models, so we expect the multiple to expand as tablet hype builds ahead of the announcement, and numbers to go up once the device is announced."
Munster's comments come on the heels of media reports that pinpoint Apple as the direct -- or indirect-- owner of various tablet-suited trademarks such as iSlate, Magic Slate, and TabletMac. They also follow a pair of reports from earlier in the day that claim Apple has placed large orders for 10-inch tablet displays with reinforced glass panels.
While speculation has run rampant as to precisely how Apple plans to market and position the new handheld in the market place, Munster is a firm believer that the company will leverage the success of its App Store in allowing the device to run a flurry of available iPhone apps, in addition to a new breed of full-screen apps, all atop a more advanced version of its iPhone operating system.
"While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple's iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store," he said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netback."
In addition to serving as a new platform for iPhone apps and web surfing, Munster is also betting that the unannounced product will cater to entertainment junkies through tie-ins to Apple's ubiquitous iTunes Store. Recent reports have suggested that two network operators -- CBS and Disney -- are in serious negotiations with Apple over an iTunes TV subscription service that could offer tablet owners hours upon hours of their favorite television content for a low monthly fee.
Meanwhile, earlier reports had suggested another focus of the tablet would be the transformation of newspapers, magazines and other print media, with Apple reportedly courting several of the industry's largest publishers into private discussions on the matter.
For their part, Apple executives would later downplay these rumors, claiming they weren't enthusiastic about the online book and newspaper market, which they said was tied to an "unattractive industry structure."
Still, some industry watchers believe Apple could use its tablet device to drastically alter the landscape for print and digital print media by shaking things up and changing the rules of the game. For instance, it's been reported that some publishing executives didn't give a warm reception to Amazon's Kindle eBook reader because the retailer wanted to keep 70 percent of revenue.
Those same reports suggested that Apple's could implement a more attractive structure, similar to its iPhone App Store business model, where the company keeps only 30 percent of sales revenues and the publishers take home the rest of the pie.
Though talk of the Apple tablet as a digital book reader had fizzled in recent weeks, it was rejuvenated this week when Digg founder Kevin Rose claimed during the latest episode of This Week in Tech to know a source that has been describing the Apple tablet as a "Kindle killer" due to an emphasis on eBooks.
"Expect to see a lot of Kindles on eBay after the announcement," he said.
Meanwhile, another guest on the technology talk show, Robert Scoble, also claimed to have an Apple source of his own who's been echoing a focus on text. He said the tablet will be one of the first to truly take advantage of Apple's Quartz interface layer's advanced text support.
As Electronista points out, both Rose and Scoble have historically mixed track records when it comes to Apple-related rumors.
Should Apple manage to sell an estimated 1.4 million tablets during 9-month span of April to December, it would stand to pad its top line by an additional 2%, according to Piper Jaffray's Munster.
In a reactionary report released Monday afternoon, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said his own conversations with Taiwanese component suppliers last week reaffirm his belief that Apple will in all likelihood ship a tablet by March, with an unveiling coming as early as late January.
He estimates Apple will initially be capable of moving 162,000 of these devices per month, for an average yearly run rate of about 2 million units.
"For purposes of sensitivity, assuming the tablet comes out in March 2010, we believe Apple would sell around 1.4 units at a $600 [average selling price] in 2010," he wrote. "The tablet is not yet included in Street models, so we expect the multiple to expand as tablet hype builds ahead of the announcement, and numbers to go up once the device is announced."
Munster's comments come on the heels of media reports that pinpoint Apple as the direct -- or indirect-- owner of various tablet-suited trademarks such as iSlate, Magic Slate, and TabletMac. They also follow a pair of reports from earlier in the day that claim Apple has placed large orders for 10-inch tablet displays with reinforced glass panels.
While speculation has run rampant as to precisely how Apple plans to market and position the new handheld in the market place, Munster is a firm believer that the company will leverage the success of its App Store in allowing the device to run a flurry of available iPhone apps, in addition to a new breed of full-screen apps, all atop a more advanced version of its iPhone operating system.
"While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple's iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store," he said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netback."
In addition to serving as a new platform for iPhone apps and web surfing, Munster is also betting that the unannounced product will cater to entertainment junkies through tie-ins to Apple's ubiquitous iTunes Store. Recent reports have suggested that two network operators -- CBS and Disney -- are in serious negotiations with Apple over an iTunes TV subscription service that could offer tablet owners hours upon hours of their favorite television content for a low monthly fee.
Meanwhile, earlier reports had suggested another focus of the tablet would be the transformation of newspapers, magazines and other print media, with Apple reportedly courting several of the industry's largest publishers into private discussions on the matter.
For their part, Apple executives would later downplay these rumors, claiming they weren't enthusiastic about the online book and newspaper market, which they said was tied to an "unattractive industry structure."
Still, some industry watchers believe Apple could use its tablet device to drastically alter the landscape for print and digital print media by shaking things up and changing the rules of the game. For instance, it's been reported that some publishing executives didn't give a warm reception to Amazon's Kindle eBook reader because the retailer wanted to keep 70 percent of revenue.
Those same reports suggested that Apple's could implement a more attractive structure, similar to its iPhone App Store business model, where the company keeps only 30 percent of sales revenues and the publishers take home the rest of the pie.
Though talk of the Apple tablet as a digital book reader had fizzled in recent weeks, it was rejuvenated this week when Digg founder Kevin Rose claimed during the latest episode of This Week in Tech to know a source that has been describing the Apple tablet as a "Kindle killer" due to an emphasis on eBooks.
"Expect to see a lot of Kindles on eBay after the announcement," he said.
Meanwhile, another guest on the technology talk show, Robert Scoble, also claimed to have an Apple source of his own who's been echoing a focus on text. He said the tablet will be one of the first to truly take advantage of Apple's Quartz interface layer's advanced text support.
As Electronista points out, both Rose and Scoble have historically mixed track records when it comes to Apple-related rumors.
Should Apple manage to sell an estimated 1.4 million tablets during 9-month span of April to December, it would stand to pad its top line by an additional 2%, according to Piper Jaffray's Munster.
Comments
"While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple's iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store," he said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netback."
OS X familiar UI is DOOMED!!
As I said in another thread, as more and more "iTablets" or "iSlates" start eating into Mac laptop sales, much like netbooks are doing to PC laptop sales now, the "iPhone OS" will slowly begin to dominate, leaving the present OS X UI as we know it only for the Mac "Pro" products eventually.
So we are going to see some sort of hybid OS in the new iTablets/iSlates. More powerful, but the simpler UI. Especially if we have to wave our hands and fingers at it to interface with it.
In a reactionary report released Monday afternoon...
Ha-ha. That means the report was extremely right wing.
Wonder if there is no tablet at this announcement. What then?
Be prepared for Apple stock to drop faster that day then Dell?s marketshare.
I thought one of the selling points for Macs was that they're easy to use. They are, and they do things that can't and shouldn't be done on the iPhone OS.
I see the new tablet as an intermediate platform between the iPhone and the Mac. You will be able to do more on the tablet than the iPhone (bigger screen, more power and storage, etc.), but you will still want your laptop or desktop for heavier tasks. I look forward to it and will probably get one.
said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook."
more like would not be JUST a netbook.
Munster is also betting that the unannounced product will cater to entertainment junkies through tie-ins to Apple's ubiquitous iTunes Store.
if that includes 720p video at least via standard downloaded materials, that would be a huge win. with or without streaming at 720p
For their part, Apple executives would later downplay these rumors, claiming they weren't enthusiastic about the online book and newspaper market, which they said was tied to an "unattractive industry structure."
some of that downplaying seemed to be of comments suggesting that Device X would be just an ebook reader. however I could see a built in app for reading pdfs easily, perhaps one for CBR (used by many comics) and support to get a Kindle App on the device. such an app on the touch or phone might not go so well cause of screen size but a 7 or 10 inch screen would work better. the latter is essentially the same size as the Kindle and the Nook
I trust that whatever the tablet thingie turns out to be and however many end up being sold, that they will be counted as MacOS units in the quarterly count-off.
Very unlikely.
If this thing has an ARM processor (which in all likelihood it will), it will not run OS X and would not be considered a Mac.
I trust that whatever the tablet thingie turns out to be and however many end up being sold, that they will be counted as MacOS units in the quarterly count-off.
I think they will be lumped in with iPods.
In regular view mode, it's a large iPhone. Color graphics, etc. Change it to e-ink mode and the backlight turns off (or goes ultra-low power) and the screen goes to black and white (or gray). (Although white text on a black background would suck.)
Anyway, a hybrid display could exist and be possible, no?
But will it make phone calls?
Doubtful. How many people want to pay a cellular voice contract for a device that isn't pocketable and would require a headset (wired or wireless)?
The only way to do this would be to run some sort of VoIP app (which you can already do with your iPhone or iPod touch).
Very unlikely.
If this thing has an ARM processor (which in all likelihood it will), it will not run OS X and would not be considered a Mac.
I'm think it will probably be the first device to feature Apple's custom ARM CPU designed by the PA Semi folk.
here's to apple pricing their products as they see fit.
I don't know much about the displays the Kindle uses compared to a standard LCD screen (as found in the iPhone), but couldn't one potentially be able to display both types of images?
In regular view mode, it's a large iPhone. Color graphics, etc. Change it to e-ink mode and the backlight turns off (or goes ultra-low power) and the screen goes to black and white (or gray). (Although white text on a black background would suck.)
Anyway, a hybrid display could exist and be possible, no?
I believe that theoretically a hybrid display could exist. The real questions are how much would it cost and how well would it perform.
My guess is that Apple tested dozens of different displays of various sizes, features, power requirements, etc. Right now, it seems like they have selected one part. Whether or not that dual-mode functionality is in the part that they selected is pure speculation at this time, but I wouldn't bet on it.
CEOs do NOT tell the truth unless it's time to make an announcement. If they blabbed about everything they were working on, they wouldn't make for a very good CEO (or senior executive in general).
No, what's much more important is if higher ups start retreating in saying anything at all, that's because a gag order has probably been put into place to make sure that the final information about a deal doesn't leak. Anything before that is pretty much rumor/speculation that fuels the fire. For example, when Kevin Rose nailed the September iPod event announcements in 2008, no one was surprised and everyone seemed "disappointed". Or the fact that there was a confluence of signs that the iPod Touch was going to get a camera and it didn't.
Not saying something is much more important than saying something in CEO land, where every word is guarded. More focus is spent on what IS said instead of what ISN'T said.
Why not bring Apps to Mac OS?
I hope that in 10.7 The Dashboard layer's widgets are replaced with apps.
When you purchase an app, you can try it out in the Dashboard right away.
The only problem is GPS chips, multitouch, screen rotation, etc.