I read his bio. He's done a lot of work for Nokia, hasn't he? The only phone MANUFACTURER he's worked for. Isn't that coincidental?
Of course he has done a lot of work for Nokia. Nokia is to mobile tech what Opera is to web standards. Basically all the "big" names work for Nokia at some point. And the guy is Finn so...
If you think that Siemens, NTT Docomo, etc. etc. (there are others as he has been consultant for quite some time) aren't phone manufacturers, I think it's better to end this conversation. Over and out.
Edit. And someone wondered if I have something to do with Nokia. I can honestly say that I've never worked for Nokia or any firm that does software / hardware for Nokia. And I'm not Apple hater, I actually love certain aspects of Apple products (there are also things that I hate).
Btw. melgross: Maemo is already out. Has been for couple of years. It's just the next version of Maemo which is coming out.
I don't know where you got those numbers from, but the Bloomberg report I linked to shows that Q2 2008, Nokia had a 45.1% smartphone marketshare. Not the 41% you show. That's a drop of 4 points. Quarter to quarter is more difficult to tell because companies come out with new phones so a short period tells us less, unless it's a steady trend.
See, this just proves my point about lazy journalism. Don't get your information second hand, go to the source.
Go to the original press release from Nokia and make your own informed opinion. Don't draw conclusions from a secondary source.
It quite clearly shows that their smartphone market share has been:
Q2 2008: 41%
Q1 2009: 38%
Q2 2009: 41%
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
During the same period, Apple doubled it's marketshare to 10.8%. So the report is correct all along. Apple is quickly gaining on a falling Nokia.
Unless I'm mistaken, Apple hasn't released its Q2 results yet. You're making assumptions based on thin air. Even though I can't remember the official audited numbers being released, didn't the iPhone 3GS sell 1 million in its opening weekend vs. 1 million for the iPhone 3G? I'm aware that the 3GS was released in fewer countries but we all know that the big markets were hit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
They have already done so with their new system, Maemo, that will be coming out sometime.
And have you used it? The UI is worse than S60. It's no-where near good enough for the mainstream. It needs serious, serious investment to even have a chance.
First of all. This isn't attack against AppleInsider or melgross (I just saw that he/she is indeed a moderator with lots of posts and therefore some might think that he is somehow more reliable or something).
Not true. Nokia said that it probably cannot gain more market share this year (like they had predicted last year) and that their market share will stay pretty much as it is now.
Nokia has an App Store. Everyone who takes part in this conversation should read the "Silly Silly Forbes: No its not Nokia's "Motorola Moment".. Very poor reporting" article. It is great.
Well actually Nokia gained more market share in Q2. Overall 37%->38% and marketshare 38%->41%. IIRC.
Not true. Nokia didn't announce anything. Symbian announced. Nokia is Nokia, Symbian is Symbian. Apple doesn't announce that Google Maps went out of beta and Nokia doesn't announce that Symbian is doing platform for app stores.
What on earth would Nokia do with Palm? Nothing. Nokia already has Symbian & Maemo & Qt.
I guess gaining market share in Q2 is now "losing ground". Yes, they have lost market share when compared to 2005 or so, but this is business and it's normal that you have ups and downs.
Link me one real review saying this. And no, Gizmodo is a no-go.
And here it is: wasn't the whole thing about iPhone the fact that it's not the hardware that matters?
Anyone who knows Symbian OS also knows that it is kind of perfect OS for mobile phones because during all years it has become very, very efficient OS. No other OS can match Symbian when it comes to power efficiency. That is why Nokia can put "old" CPU to their flagship Symbian device.
So, Engadget is also familiar to you. And the rest of the quote is just unfair: I believe you do know why. You're not lying, congrats. Selective truth ftw.
And most of the reviews are actually saying that the position of the space key is actually very good. It is not usually there but it's actually easy to learn and very handy.
Oh dear. Symbian is old yes, it has its cons. Lots of people say that Nokia should abandon Symbian. The truth is: those people have evidently no idea of whatsoever what actually is Symbian and what is the problem atm. The "problem" is GUI: s60 and Symbian underneath it is perfectly fine. And I believe that when next major releases of Symbian come out (Symbian^*) the UI is revamped.
Hints of Nokia using Android are as stupid as hints of Apple using Windows Mobile.
This "some other Linux based system" is Maemo, which is nothing new. The fact that next release of Maemo will have support for actually calling without VOIP is a new thing. This first next-gen Maemo device is probably announced in early September @ Nokia World.
I wish you would read too. And with reviews I actually mean reviews (so nothing from Gizmodo, Engadget, etc.). There are actually very high-quality mobile sites throughout the net. Like mobile-review etc.
The numbers do show that iPhones are used a lot in Web. But did you even once think where the numbers are from and how are they collected? For an example Market Share by Net Applications is well known to be skewed towards US, they have self admitted it. Please don't trust statistics if you don't know anything about the background. I've studied quantitative research and the main thing to know is: don't trust numbers if you don't have all the research material available. And after that is still requires huge amount of analysis to be sure that you can actually try to use gathered information in program like SPSS.
They are not looking at Android. They have been developing Linux (X.org, Maemo, Mozilla, Webkit, etc.) in the past and today with even bigger resources, but Nokia will never, never release an Android device. Android isn't really even genuine Linux (only the kernel). Of course Nokia R&D are probably doing lots of things and analyzing all available OS's.
S60 is doomed. Symbian is nowhere near.
N97 wasn't even launched globally until July. Only few countries like US got it in Q2 (quite significant change actually for Nokia to start from North America). The reason why Nokia smartphone numbers didn't slide is called the Nokia E-series and Nokia 5800 ExpressMusic.
You do realize that pretty much everywhere else (outside North America) the N97 is available for free? You can buy it without contract or get it subsidized with big variety of contracts.
N97 has been available for couple of weeks in the UK.
iPhone quite some time.
And finally we get to this great piece of journalism. This "report" is actually sad. It's not sad because it thinks that Nokia is "doomed" but because it's full of proof about the author and authors "knowledge".
No it is not. And you saying things like that is just sad. People, please read the articles you're commenting.
First of all: "they". Mr. Tomi Ahonen is one man.
Second thing: he is not a Nokia supporter as you mean it. People who know the industry know also Tomi Ahonen. Apparently you do not know the mobile industry. That kind of sums up the whole thread...
And after that you should really read the article by Mr. Ahonen. From the start to the end. It's excellent piece and without any bias.
That link did have excellent and well-thought article with lots of good stuff (including few arguments against Forbes' piece).
False. I already talked about this. Look up.
And this why, frankly, my dear melgross, I don't think you should be commenting in a thread which is about mobile technology or Nokia. You may know your stuff around Apple, but as we know Apple isn't the whole industry, no matter how great company it is.
So after all this above >>> what do you SEE as nokia's future in the smart phone buisness.
First of all, I'm not going to respond to your remarks about the AI article because your post is already much too fractionated. Please try to not respond to every sentence individually. Thank you.
Perhaps you shouldn't be commenting here, as you haven't contributed anything new.
The only link supports the concept that this guy is a Nokia supporter. If fact, it supports the view that he's protecting his business interests.
You haven't bothered to give any other links to articles that say the opposite to what every article in financial publications, phone publications, and computer publications have been saying; Nokia is in trouble.
You also haven't provided links to the reviews you like so much.
Please do both, and then my dear Eric, we can have a more realistic, and balanced view.
WOW I feel like we entering into the debate wars finals and MEL just scored ~~~
Of course he has done a lot of work for Nokia. Nokia is to mobile tech what Opera is to web standards. Basically all the "big" names work for Nokia at some point. And the guy is Finn so...
Btw. melgross: Maemo is already out. Has been for couple of years. It's just the next version of Maemo which is coming out.
Dude mel asked you to add something here to the great debate .
Nokia is so large and so powerful and given the fact that the iphone has blazed the way forward. All Nokia has to do is spend a couple of hundred million euros and do some deep R & D and slowly bring forth a strong everything in one smart phone . One model / GET it right. AND then built up its app store slowly. And then let the world wide consumers teach it what it did wrong or what it could do better. And then the next's model's would be >>>>well better I hope .
Nokia's inertia also stains many other large behemoths /
Unless I'm mistaken, Apple hasn't released its Q2 results yet. You're making assumptions based on thin air. Even though I can't remember the official audited numbers being released, didn't the iPhone 3GS sell 1 million in its opening weekend vs. 1 million for the iPhone 3G? I'm aware that the 3GS was released in fewer countries but we all know that the big markets were hit.
Those comparisons aren?t congruent due to release dates.
Year-over-year sales for the iPhone for calendar Q02 will be considerably higher this year. Last year there was a drought on the original iPhone in the last 2 months of the quarter and the iPhone 3G didn?t even go on sale until nearly two weeks into calendar Q03. This year, the 8GB iPhone 3G never stopped selling and nearly the last two weeks of the quarter was composed of the much awaited iPhone 3GS.
@ Brucep,
Do you really need to quote the entirety of such a long comment just to write a single lined reply?
Very juicy discussion here, a bit heated but perhaps that was to be expected. I'm pretty sure for most Apple Insider members, Nokia is not a nice word ha-ha, hopefully not quite as nasty as say Microsoft? And some of you guys who've been around longer, may remember some of my early postings about the iPhone or iPod even, and may hold a grudge. I hope no hard feelings, I was proven right on every one of those counts and am here once again to offer honestly and openly my contributions if anyone wants to engage in reasonable discussion.
I know this thread is about the Nokia stock nosediving (and related considerations it implies, that Nokia is in trouble, is underperforming, is misguided, lost the plot etc). Am happy to join that discussion. So I'm happy to discuss Nokia and its performance. I am an ex Nokia executive and have followed Nokia very closely and written extensively about them, and their various good and bad moves (anyone remember the N-Gage ha-ha).
I know that my blog article, in response to that Forbes article that was not only error-riddled, but also was contradicted by half a dozen previous Forbes articles, was referenced here several times. I'm happy to discuss the actual errors in the Forbes article and if anyone felt my blog story was somehow unfair or misrepresentative, am happy to answer any of those issues.
I know Apple's own performance and the iPhone are not the primary purpose here, but I'm also very happy to discuss it. I have been very widely referenced and quoted on Apple design related matters, including only ten days after the iPhone was announced, I delivered the handset UI design keynote to Japan's biggest telecoms conference, so I've kind of been around on this topic, and my three major blog postings before the iPhone actually was launched, were each considered the best blog of the week by my peers, ie the mobilists (and those of you who remember, I did correctly predict 10M sales, the lack of worldwide love of the 2G version, the expansion of features, and that the effect would galvanise the US IT, media and advetising industries). Like I said, there are two eras in mobile phones, the era before the iPhone, and the era after. Just like Macs changed PCs and the iPod changed portable music.
Now, some of you have argued that Tomi Ahonen is not credible because he is clearly a nokia dude. I am an ex Nokia executive, I set up Nokia's consulting department (and ran it for 2 years) and I count both Nokia (handsets) and NokiaSiemens Networks (telecoms infrastructure maker) among my reference customers. In my pockets today I carry two Nokia phones. Yeah, you can very fairily say I could be very biased.
I also count among my reference customers (reference customer means, that THEY have said they use me, not that I say they use me) the world's largest telecoms networking vendor, Ericsson of Sweden, the world's largest computer maker HP of the USA, the world's largest chip maker Intel of the USA, the world's largest telecoms carrier group, Vodafone of the UK, the world's largest mobile phone OS maker Symbian of the UK, the worlds largest mobile applications maker Buongiorno of Italy and the world's largest mobile internet company NTT DoCoMo of Japan.
I hope you guys do understand, that this level of PERSONAL references are nearly unprecedented in almost any industry, not just telecoms. I am really "the man" for the mobile industry. I have had 9 books published about the mobile industry, by 3 different publishers including the world's biggest publisher of engineering books, John Wiley & Sons. And if you might thing perhaps this guy is just an ego-maniac and nobody really trusts him, I am referenced by name in books by 50 other books about the industry.
I know that just about anyone can claim to be important and big and influential and famous. But in any industry there is one ultimate guy, and currently, in mobile, there is nobody nearly as widely respected as I am. And of those "other phone makers" obviously I cannot mention any of my customers who have not given me permission to, but I can say that among my reference customers - ie they say they work with me - are Motorola and RIM (Blackberry) ie two phone makers very near to most of you guys, in a geographic sense.
I know this sounds like bragging (and obviously I'm an arrogant son-of-a-b..) but hey, I'm 49 years old, I've done all I needed to do to get my name in this business, today I am here to help others understand and make money out of this wonderful industry we call mobile. That Apple has finally joined this industry - we feared Apple back in Nokia when I was still there, back in 2001 already - it is only more healthy for the indsutry. Apple is changing things and that is why the iPhone is part of the subtitile of my latest hardcover book and has half a chapter devoted to it.
My personal motto is "in a connected age, sharing information is power". Please consider that, and think of all of your greediest friends who ended up in management consulting. Then go back to my blog and see what kind of free information is there among over 400,000 words over 4 years and in the over 2,500 comments given by my readers.
I have nothing to prove. I am here purely to try to help those of you, who value insights. The rest, if you want a fight, I can also argue and debate if I get into that mood ha-ha..
Biased, perhaps I am as a Finn and as an ex-Nokia employee. But if Nokia's rivals like Motorola and RIM say they use Tomi Ahonen, perhaps the industry has gotten "past it" that Tomi used to carry Nokia cards, and perhaps they do respect my views as honestly indepenent. But you be the judge of that, based on what I say here, not on what someone else says about me?
...among my reference customers - ie they say they work with me - are Motorola ....
I know this sounds like bragging ...
But if Nokia's rivals like Motorola and RIM say they use Tomi Ahonen, perhaps the industry has gotten "past it" that Tomi used to carry Nokia cards, and perhaps they do respect my views as honestly indepenent. But you be the judge of that, based on what I say here, not on what someone else says about me?
So when someone writes that Nokia is having a "Motorola moment", do you take that as a
Large comapnies are like Aircraft Carriers, big and slow to adjust. An Aircraft Carrier needs five miles of open ocean to turn around.
A big part of the reason Apple is so nimble is because they always change. Apple has no loyalty to any of it's products. Even when a product works and sells well does not guarantee it will not be discontinued and replaced by something that works better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep
Nokia is so large and so powerful and given the fact that the iphone has blazed the way forward. All Nokia has to do is spend a couple of hundred million euros and do some deep R & D and slowly bring forth a strong everything in one smart phone . One model / GET it right. AND then built up its app store slowly. And then let the world wide consumers teach it what it did wrong or what it could do better. And then the next's model's would be >>>>well better I hope .
Nokia's inertia also stains many other large behemoths /
The main thread of this topic is Nokia's quarterly results and its market share.
Let me give a bit of perspective on Nokia's market share. The world sells currently about 1.05-1.10 billion new mobile phones (cellphones) this year of economic downturn, 2009. About 20% of those will be smartphones.
Nokia's market share for all phones has trended in the 30%-40% window since it first reached 30% in 2001, every single quarter. It reached a peak of 40% in 2008. Currently Nokia's market share is 38%. Looking at the historical trend, its current position is near its best performance but not quite, and on a quarter-by-quarter basis, Nokia grew market share from Q1 to Q2. So the immediate trend is up.
Note that Nokia HQ is very focused on profits. They said they want to achieve about 40% market share but not go above it (said years and years ago) so they can maximize profits. Almost every quarter this whole decade, of the big 5 handset makers, Nokia, Samsung, LG, SonyEricsson and Motorola, Nokia has been the most profitable. Just now when the economy tanked, in the first quarter of 2009, Nokia's two Korean rivals did post better profitability than Nokia.
So Nokia has not pursued an ambitious "get it all" market share, but has always wanted to return very high profits to the company (and its owners).
For contrast, since it reached 30% market share, Nokia's nearest rival has never had more than half of Nokia's market share. So there is no hungry rival closing in on Nokia. They are in rather lofty territory, quite alone in their scale. It gives them certain latitude and strength from scale, but obivoiusly as we can see from say GM and IBM, being the biggest is a very big danger to make you complacent.
Now, smartphones. Many in the industry feel that smartphones are the key to future phones (some others say low-cost phones, some others say hardware becomes irrelevant and it will all be software; and then there is the netbooks lobby who believe the shrinking PC will steal the show). Well, if you believe smartphones will win the day, Nokia has consistently, every every single quarter since it reached 30% market share, has had its smartphone market share exceed the company's overall handset market share.
Currently the smartphone market share for Nokia is 41%. So, its the biggest player by far, and in smartphones it performs better than overall. Not a bad position to be in.
Now, the smartphone market share has been bigger, certainly. But remember Nokia's overall intent is to provide profits, so pursuing too aggressive a market share in smartphones is very expensive. They're very happy as long as Nokia branded smartphones outsell Nokia branded regular phones.
Who is Nokia's rival. I'm sorry, you guys here, the Apple iPhone is nowhere near Nokia's rival. Yes, its a design icon, and it is being reverse-engineered by all, and dozens of copies and wannabees flood the market (and outsell the original iPhone) but the iPhone is only at 1% global market share. This is only a "minor irritant" to the biggest player. I do not mean to dismiss Apple or the iPhone. But Nokia would be foolish to focus on the iPhone (currently). RIM of Canada sells twice as many smartphones as Apple and is available in more markets than the iPhone and is available on more carriers than the iPhone. Among smartphones, Blackberry is the real threat to Nokia's N-Series, E-Series and consumer smartphones.
Overall, far more than worry about Blackberries, the two hungry players growing fast, making profits while doing so, are the two South Koreans, Samsung and LG. Here is Nokia's real battle. If they lose to Samsung (or LG) it will be a real Motorola Moment indeed. Incidentially Motorola and SonyEricsson have posted countless quarters of profits, so Nokia is not very worried about them right now.
I hope this helps give a bit of context to the discussion. I do understand that Wall Street reacted very strongly (negatively) to Nokia's guidance that the rest of the year will be tough. But Wall Street makes extreme over-reactions on a daily basis, that is how they get volatility and volatility brings them more business ie sales commissions. I don't care gery much about daily reactions on Wall Street. I do care about the company's market share and profitability.
Would you consider the N97 as a competitor to the iPhone? Personally I consider the iPhone an iPod that has telephony capabilities and less of a smartphone but more of a media phone. The lack of accessible storage and smartphone like features makes the iPhone seem like more of a media device. What it does, it does well, very well in fact but I do not see it as an N97 competitor in the smartphone category. I find US based journalists simply clump any phone with an advanced OS into the smartphone category whether the phone deserves it or not.
If the first point of a counter argument is how more megapixels equates to "innovation" then the article is, at the very least, poorly written. There is no reason to continue reading at that point as that should be the strongest argument in a tech article.
So obviously your counter argument against everything is to stick your fingers in your ears and go nah, nah, nah, nah, nah.
What new thing has Apple done in the last two years???
The only thing they have done is add those features that were missing in the first place, and things that all other phones already had. They HAVE NOT done anything innovative in the last two years.
Same thing is happening all over again with Windows and Apple. Apple had the lead in 1984 and they had lost it completely by the time Windows 95 came around. And look where that left them. With a 5% market share.
Comments
I read his bio. He's done a lot of work for Nokia, hasn't he? The only phone MANUFACTURER he's worked for. Isn't that coincidental?
Of course he has done a lot of work for Nokia. Nokia is to mobile tech what Opera is to web standards. Basically all the "big" names work for Nokia at some point. And the guy is Finn so...
If you think that Siemens, NTT Docomo, etc. etc. (there are others as he has been consultant for quite some time) aren't phone manufacturers, I think it's better to end this conversation. Over and out.
Edit. And someone wondered if I have something to do with Nokia. I can honestly say that I've never worked for Nokia or any firm that does software / hardware for Nokia. And I'm not Apple hater, I actually love certain aspects of Apple products (there are also things that I hate).
Btw. melgross: Maemo is already out. Has been for couple of years. It's just the next version of Maemo which is coming out.
I don't know where you got those numbers from, but the Bloomberg report I linked to shows that Q2 2008, Nokia had a 45.1% smartphone marketshare. Not the 41% you show. That's a drop of 4 points. Quarter to quarter is more difficult to tell because companies come out with new phones so a short period tells us less, unless it's a steady trend.
See, this just proves my point about lazy journalism. Don't get your information second hand, go to the source.
Go to the original press release from Nokia and make your own informed opinion. Don't draw conclusions from a secondary source.
Here's the untainted Q2 results from Nokia.
It quite clearly shows that their smartphone market share has been:
Q2 2008: 41%
Q1 2009: 38%
Q2 2009: 41%
During the same period, Apple doubled it's marketshare to 10.8%. So the report is correct all along. Apple is quickly gaining on a falling Nokia.
Unless I'm mistaken, Apple hasn't released its Q2 results yet. You're making assumptions based on thin air. Even though I can't remember the official audited numbers being released, didn't the iPhone 3GS sell 1 million in its opening weekend vs. 1 million for the iPhone 3G? I'm aware that the 3GS was released in fewer countries but we all know that the big markets were hit.
They have already done so with their new system, Maemo, that will be coming out sometime.
And have you used it? The UI is worse than S60. It's no-where near good enough for the mainstream. It needs serious, serious investment to even have a chance.
First of all. This isn't attack against AppleInsider or melgross (I just saw that he/she is indeed a moderator with lots of posts and therefore some might think that he is somehow more reliable or something).
Not true. Nokia said that it probably cannot gain more market share this year (like they had predicted last year) and that their market share will stay pretty much as it is now.
Nokia has an App Store. Everyone who takes part in this conversation should read the "Silly Silly Forbes: No its not Nokia's "Motorola Moment".. Very poor reporting" article. It is great.
Well actually Nokia gained more market share in Q2. Overall 37%->38% and marketshare 38%->41%. IIRC.
Not true. Nokia didn't announce anything. Symbian announced. Nokia is Nokia, Symbian is Symbian. Apple doesn't announce that Google Maps went out of beta and Nokia doesn't announce that Symbian is doing platform for app stores.
What on earth would Nokia do with Palm? Nothing. Nokia already has Symbian & Maemo & Qt.
I guess gaining market share in Q2 is now "losing ground". Yes, they have lost market share when compared to 2005 or so, but this is business and it's normal that you have ups and downs.
Link me one real review saying this. And no, Gizmodo is a no-go.
And here it is: wasn't the whole thing about iPhone the fact that it's not the hardware that matters?
Anyone who knows Symbian OS also knows that it is kind of perfect OS for mobile phones because during all years it has become very, very efficient OS. No other OS can match Symbian when it comes to power efficiency. That is why Nokia can put "old" CPU to their flagship Symbian device.
So, Engadget is also familiar to you. And the rest of the quote is just unfair: I believe you do know why. You're not lying, congrats. Selective truth ftw.
And most of the reviews are actually saying that the position of the space key is actually very good. It is not usually there but it's actually easy to learn and very handy.
Oh dear. Symbian is old yes, it has its cons. Lots of people say that Nokia should abandon Symbian. The truth is: those people have evidently no idea of whatsoever what actually is Symbian and what is the problem atm. The "problem" is GUI: s60 and Symbian underneath it is perfectly fine. And I believe that when next major releases of Symbian come out (Symbian^*) the UI is revamped.
Hints of Nokia using Android are as stupid as hints of Apple using Windows Mobile.
This "some other Linux based system" is Maemo, which is nothing new. The fact that next release of Maemo will have support for actually calling without VOIP is a new thing. This first next-gen Maemo device is probably announced in early September @ Nokia World.
I wish you would read too. And with reviews I actually mean reviews (so nothing from Gizmodo, Engadget, etc.). There are actually very high-quality mobile sites throughout the net. Like mobile-review etc.
The numbers do show that iPhones are used a lot in Web. But did you even once think where the numbers are from and how are they collected? For an example Market Share by Net Applications is well known to be skewed towards US, they have self admitted it. Please don't trust statistics if you don't know anything about the background. I've studied quantitative research and the main thing to know is: don't trust numbers if you don't have all the research material available. And after that is still requires huge amount of analysis to be sure that you can actually try to use gathered information in program like SPSS.
They are not looking at Android. They have been developing Linux (X.org, Maemo, Mozilla, Webkit, etc.) in the past and today with even bigger resources, but Nokia will never, never release an Android device. Android isn't really even genuine Linux (only the kernel). Of course Nokia R&D are probably doing lots of things and analyzing all available OS's.
S60 is doomed. Symbian is nowhere near.
N97 wasn't even launched globally until July. Only few countries like US got it in Q2 (quite significant change actually for Nokia to start from North America). The reason why Nokia smartphone numbers didn't slide is called the Nokia E-series and Nokia 5800 ExpressMusic.
You do realize that pretty much everywhere else (outside North America) the N97 is available for free? You can buy it without contract or get it subsidized with big variety of contracts.
N97 has been available for couple of weeks in the UK.
iPhone quite some time.
And finally we get to this great piece of journalism. This "report" is actually sad. It's not sad because it thinks that Nokia is "doomed" but because it's full of proof about the author and authors "knowledge".
No it is not. And you saying things like that is just sad. People, please read the articles you're commenting.
First of all: "they". Mr. Tomi Ahonen is one man.
Second thing: he is not a Nokia supporter as you mean it. People who know the industry know also Tomi Ahonen. Apparently you do not know the mobile industry. That kind of sums up the whole thread...
Perhaps you want to try to take a look at this: http://www.tomiahonen.com/biotomi.htm
And after that you should really read the article by Mr. Ahonen. From the start to the end. It's excellent piece and without any bias.
That link did have excellent and well-thought article with lots of good stuff (including few arguments against Forbes' piece).
False. I already talked about this. Look up.
And this why, frankly, my dear melgross, I don't think you should be commenting in a thread which is about mobile technology or Nokia. You may know your stuff around Apple, but as we know Apple isn't the whole industry, no matter how great company it is.
So after all this above >>> what do you SEE as nokia's future in the smart phone buisness.
First of all, I'm not going to respond to your remarks about the AI article because your post is already much too fractionated. Please try to not respond to every sentence individually. Thank you.
Perhaps you shouldn't be commenting here, as you haven't contributed anything new.
The only link supports the concept that this guy is a Nokia supporter. If fact, it supports the view that he's protecting his business interests.
You haven't bothered to give any other links to articles that say the opposite to what every article in financial publications, phone publications, and computer publications have been saying; Nokia is in trouble.
You also haven't provided links to the reviews you like so much.
Please do both, and then my dear Eric, we can have a more realistic, and balanced view.
WOW I feel like we entering into the debate wars finals and MEL just scored ~~~
Of course he has done a lot of work for Nokia. Nokia is to mobile tech what Opera is to web standards. Basically all the "big" names work for Nokia at some point. And the guy is Finn so...
Btw. melgross: Maemo is already out. Has been for couple of years. It's just the next version of Maemo which is coming out.
Dude mel asked you to add something here to the great debate .
mel 1
eric 0
Nokia's inertia also stains many other large behemoths /
Apple will always be one step ahead of the pack .
Always
peace
9
P.S. I don't hide. Cowards do. Says something about your choice of words......
I apologize to everybody else here for opening Pandora's Box.
I apologize to everybody else here for opening Pandora's Box.
Better would probably be an apology for opening your mouth, but hey.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_6120_classic
Judging by the 62 euro average handset sale price it's probably quite a lot.
S
It quite clearly shows that their smartphone market share has been:
Q2 2008: 41%
Q1 2009: 38%
Q2 2009: 41%
Unless I'm mistaken, Apple hasn't released its Q2 results yet. You're making assumptions based on thin air. Even though I can't remember the official audited numbers being released, didn't the iPhone 3GS sell 1 million in its opening weekend vs. 1 million for the iPhone 3G? I'm aware that the 3GS was released in fewer countries but we all know that the big markets were hit.
Those comparisons aren?t congruent due to release dates.
Year-over-year sales for the iPhone for calendar Q02 will be considerably higher this year. Last year there was a drought on the original iPhone in the last 2 months of the quarter and the iPhone 3G didn?t even go on sale until nearly two weeks into calendar Q03. This year, the 8GB iPhone 3G never stopped selling and nearly the last two weeks of the quarter was composed of the much awaited iPhone 3GS.
@ Brucep,
Do you really need to quote the entirety of such a long comment just to write a single lined reply?
Very juicy discussion here, a bit heated but perhaps that was to be expected. I'm pretty sure for most Apple Insider members, Nokia is not a nice word ha-ha, hopefully not quite as nasty as say Microsoft? And some of you guys who've been around longer, may remember some of my early postings about the iPhone or iPod even, and may hold a grudge. I hope no hard feelings, I was proven right on every one of those counts and am here once again to offer honestly and openly my contributions if anyone wants to engage in reasonable discussion.
I know this thread is about the Nokia stock nosediving (and related considerations it implies, that Nokia is in trouble, is underperforming, is misguided, lost the plot etc). Am happy to join that discussion. So I'm happy to discuss Nokia and its performance. I am an ex Nokia executive and have followed Nokia very closely and written extensively about them, and their various good and bad moves (anyone remember the N-Gage ha-ha).
I know that my blog article, in response to that Forbes article that was not only error-riddled, but also was contradicted by half a dozen previous Forbes articles, was referenced here several times. I'm happy to discuss the actual errors in the Forbes article and if anyone felt my blog story was somehow unfair or misrepresentative, am happy to answer any of those issues.
I know Apple's own performance and the iPhone are not the primary purpose here, but I'm also very happy to discuss it. I have been very widely referenced and quoted on Apple design related matters, including only ten days after the iPhone was announced, I delivered the handset UI design keynote to Japan's biggest telecoms conference, so I've kind of been around on this topic, and my three major blog postings before the iPhone actually was launched, were each considered the best blog of the week by my peers, ie the mobilists (and those of you who remember, I did correctly predict 10M sales, the lack of worldwide love of the 2G version, the expansion of features, and that the effect would galvanise the US IT, media and advetising industries). Like I said, there are two eras in mobile phones, the era before the iPhone, and the era after. Just like Macs changed PCs and the iPod changed portable music.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
www.tomiahonen.com
I also count among my reference customers (reference customer means, that THEY have said they use me, not that I say they use me) the world's largest telecoms networking vendor, Ericsson of Sweden, the world's largest computer maker HP of the USA, the world's largest chip maker Intel of the USA, the world's largest telecoms carrier group, Vodafone of the UK, the world's largest mobile phone OS maker Symbian of the UK, the worlds largest mobile applications maker Buongiorno of Italy and the world's largest mobile internet company NTT DoCoMo of Japan.
I hope you guys do understand, that this level of PERSONAL references are nearly unprecedented in almost any industry, not just telecoms. I am really "the man" for the mobile industry. I have had 9 books published about the mobile industry, by 3 different publishers including the world's biggest publisher of engineering books, John Wiley & Sons. And if you might thing perhaps this guy is just an ego-maniac and nobody really trusts him, I am referenced by name in books by 50 other books about the industry.
I know that just about anyone can claim to be important and big and influential and famous. But in any industry there is one ultimate guy, and currently, in mobile, there is nobody nearly as widely respected as I am. And of those "other phone makers" obviously I cannot mention any of my customers who have not given me permission to, but I can say that among my reference customers - ie they say they work with me - are Motorola and RIM (Blackberry) ie two phone makers very near to most of you guys, in a geographic sense.
I know this sounds like bragging (and obviously I'm an arrogant son-of-a-b..) but hey, I'm 49 years old, I've done all I needed to do to get my name in this business, today I am here to help others understand and make money out of this wonderful industry we call mobile. That Apple has finally joined this industry - we feared Apple back in Nokia when I was still there, back in 2001 already - it is only more healthy for the indsutry. Apple is changing things and that is why the iPhone is part of the subtitile of my latest hardcover book and has half a chapter devoted to it.
My personal motto is "in a connected age, sharing information is power". Please consider that, and think of all of your greediest friends who ended up in management consulting. Then go back to my blog and see what kind of free information is there among over 400,000 words over 4 years and in the over 2,500 comments given by my readers.
I have nothing to prove. I am here purely to try to help those of you, who value insights. The rest, if you want a fight, I can also argue and debate if I get into that mood ha-ha..
Biased, perhaps I am as a Finn and as an ex-Nokia employee. But if Nokia's rivals like Motorola and RIM say they use Tomi Ahonen, perhaps the industry has gotten "past it" that Tomi used to carry Nokia cards, and perhaps they do respect my views as honestly indepenent. But you be the judge of that, based on what I say here, not on what someone else says about me?
Ok, now will post a few comments.
...among my reference customers - ie they say they work with me - are Motorola ....
I know this sounds like bragging ...
But if Nokia's rivals like Motorola and RIM say they use Tomi Ahonen, perhaps the industry has gotten "past it" that Tomi used to carry Nokia cards, and perhaps they do respect my views as honestly indepenent. But you be the judge of that, based on what I say here, not on what someone else says about me?
So when someone writes that Nokia is having a "Motorola moment", do you take that as a
complement and a job reference?
A big part of the reason Apple is so nimble is because they always change. Apple has no loyalty to any of it's products. Even when a product works and sells well does not guarantee it will not be discontinued and replaced by something that works better.
Nokia is so large and so powerful and given the fact that the iphone has blazed the way forward. All Nokia has to do is spend a couple of hundred million euros and do some deep R & D and slowly bring forth a strong everything in one smart phone . One model / GET it right. AND then built up its app store slowly. And then let the world wide consumers teach it what it did wrong or what it could do better. And then the next's model's would be >>>>well better I hope .
Nokia's inertia also stains many other large behemoths /
Apple will always be one step ahead of the pack .
Always
peace
9
Let me give a bit of perspective on Nokia's market share. The world sells currently about 1.05-1.10 billion new mobile phones (cellphones) this year of economic downturn, 2009. About 20% of those will be smartphones.
Nokia's market share for all phones has trended in the 30%-40% window since it first reached 30% in 2001, every single quarter. It reached a peak of 40% in 2008. Currently Nokia's market share is 38%. Looking at the historical trend, its current position is near its best performance but not quite, and on a quarter-by-quarter basis, Nokia grew market share from Q1 to Q2. So the immediate trend is up.
Note that Nokia HQ is very focused on profits. They said they want to achieve about 40% market share but not go above it (said years and years ago) so they can maximize profits. Almost every quarter this whole decade, of the big 5 handset makers, Nokia, Samsung, LG, SonyEricsson and Motorola, Nokia has been the most profitable. Just now when the economy tanked, in the first quarter of 2009, Nokia's two Korean rivals did post better profitability than Nokia.
So Nokia has not pursued an ambitious "get it all" market share, but has always wanted to return very high profits to the company (and its owners).
For contrast, since it reached 30% market share, Nokia's nearest rival has never had more than half of Nokia's market share. So there is no hungry rival closing in on Nokia. They are in rather lofty territory, quite alone in their scale. It gives them certain latitude and strength from scale, but obivoiusly as we can see from say GM and IBM, being the biggest is a very big danger to make you complacent.
Now, smartphones. Many in the industry feel that smartphones are the key to future phones (some others say low-cost phones, some others say hardware becomes irrelevant and it will all be software; and then there is the netbooks lobby who believe the shrinking PC will steal the show). Well, if you believe smartphones will win the day, Nokia has consistently, every every single quarter since it reached 30% market share, has had its smartphone market share exceed the company's overall handset market share.
Currently the smartphone market share for Nokia is 41%. So, its the biggest player by far, and in smartphones it performs better than overall. Not a bad position to be in.
Now, the smartphone market share has been bigger, certainly. But remember Nokia's overall intent is to provide profits, so pursuing too aggressive a market share in smartphones is very expensive. They're very happy as long as Nokia branded smartphones outsell Nokia branded regular phones.
Who is Nokia's rival. I'm sorry, you guys here, the Apple iPhone is nowhere near Nokia's rival. Yes, its a design icon, and it is being reverse-engineered by all, and dozens of copies and wannabees flood the market (and outsell the original iPhone) but the iPhone is only at 1% global market share. This is only a "minor irritant" to the biggest player. I do not mean to dismiss Apple or the iPhone. But Nokia would be foolish to focus on the iPhone (currently). RIM of Canada sells twice as many smartphones as Apple and is available in more markets than the iPhone and is available on more carriers than the iPhone. Among smartphones, Blackberry is the real threat to Nokia's N-Series, E-Series and consumer smartphones.
Overall, far more than worry about Blackberries, the two hungry players growing fast, making profits while doing so, are the two South Koreans, Samsung and LG. Here is Nokia's real battle. If they lose to Samsung (or LG) it will be a real Motorola Moment indeed. Incidentially Motorola and SonyEricsson have posted countless quarters of profits, so Nokia is not very worried about them right now.
I hope this helps give a bit of context to the discussion. I do understand that Wall Street reacted very strongly (negatively) to Nokia's guidance that the rest of the year will be tough. But Wall Street makes extreme over-reactions on a daily basis, that is how they get volatility and volatility brings them more business ie sales commissions. I don't care gery much about daily reactions on Wall Street. I do care about the company's market share and profitability.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
www.tomiahonen.com
The main thread of this topic is Nokia's quarterly results and its market share.
Incidentially Motorola and SonyEricsson have posted countless quarters of profits, so Nokia is not very worried about them right now.
I am sorry, meant to say, Motorola and Sony Ericsson have posted both many consecutive quarters of losses.
Tomi :-)
Would you consider the N97 as a competitor to the iPhone? Personally I consider the iPhone an iPod that has telephony capabilities and less of a smartphone but more of a media phone. The lack of accessible storage and smartphone like features makes the iPhone seem like more of a media device. What it does, it does well, very well in fact but I do not see it as an N97 competitor in the smartphone category. I find US based journalists simply clump any phone with an advanced OS into the smartphone category whether the phone deserves it or not.
If the first point of a counter argument is how more megapixels equates to "innovation" then the article is, at the very least, poorly written. There is no reason to continue reading at that point as that should be the strongest argument in a tech article.
So obviously your counter argument against everything is to stick your fingers in your ears and go nah, nah, nah, nah, nah.
the iPhone has been around for over two years.
What new thing has Apple done in the last two years???
The only thing they have done is add those features that were missing in the first place, and things that all other phones already had. They HAVE NOT done anything innovative in the last two years.
Same thing is happening all over again with Windows and Apple. Apple had the lead in 1984 and they had lost it completely by the time Windows 95 came around. And look where that left them. With a 5% market share.
How many of the smartphone's Nokia sold were low to midrange phone's like this:-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_6120_classic
Judging by the 62 euro average handset sale price it's probably quite a lot.
So, what does that have to do with it? A smartphone is a smartphone. It doesn't have to have a touchscreen.
You do know that Nokia put most of its competitors out of business by driving the price down faster than most could possibly keep up with?
You do know that most Nokia phones are free on contract everywhere else in the world?. The 5800 is already significantly cheaper than any iPhone?
You do realise what will happen once they get really warmed up?