Microsoft frets Google's Nexus One will suffer Zune's failure

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Microsoft announced to the press that Google will face a series of Zune-like problems with its Nexus One as it tries to balance its Android platform.



Speaking at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Microsoft?s Robbie Bach, president of the company's Entertainment & Devices Division, told Bloomberg that he envisioned that Google's foray into directly selling and marking the phone could scare away other Android licensees.



?Doing both in the way they are trying to do both is actually very, very difficult,? Bach said. ?Google?s announcement sends a signal where they?re going to place their commitment. That will create some opportunities for us and we?ll pursue them.?



Speaking from experience



Bach presided over Microsoft's own "PlaysForSure" Windows Media strategy for delivering a licensed software platform that hardware makers could use to build MP3 players, in competition with Apple's iPod. When that program failed to gain much traction, Microsoft took matters into its own hands by announcing a plan to deliver a Microsoft-branded Windows Media player under the Zune brand.



The company insisted that the Zune would only compete against Apple's iPod, leaving PlaysForSure licensees to continue their growth in parallel. However, as was obviously the case even at the time, the Zune only managed to kill off PlaysForSure devices and assume their small share of the overall MP3 market without making any progress into Apple's territory.



Bach recently told analysts who were critical of the company's foray into music players that it continues to feel it has a shot in the music business and that it views the market as critical to the company's overall strategy. However, he also admitted that given the chance to do things over, the company would have done things differently, although he didn't explain what he thought would have worked better.



Regardless of the path Microsoft had taken, its Windows Media platform appeared headed for disaster. Without the Zune, the company would be dealing with the same kinds of problems that it faces in smartphones, where it has (so far) avoided releasing its own branded phone in deference to its Windows Mobile licensees, primarily HTC.



But that alternative strategy hasn't stopped Microsoft's phone platform from quickly sliding into irrelevance in terms of actual sales, consumer mindshare nor in developer attention. Consumer products benefit from tight integration to a greater degree than PCs, where Microsoft has successfully ruled the roost as the world's dominant PC operating system provider.







Microsoft vs Google: don't follow our lead



Bach's warnings to Google aren't the first time a Microsoft executive has scoffed at its rival for doing the same thing it had done previously. Chief executive Steve Ballmer laughed off Google's Chrome OS initiative last summer, telling the crowd at the company's Worldwide Partner Conference, "I don't know if they can't make up their mind or what the problem is over there, but the last time I checked, you don't need two client operating systems [Android and Chrome OS]. It's good to have one."



Ballmer's comments were curious because his own company maintained two distinct PC operating systems throughout most of the 90s: the consumer Windows 95/98/ME based on DOS, and the completely separate Windows NT/2000 operating system it targeted at business users.



Additionally, the company launched the entirely new Windows CE operating system targeted at handheld devices and embedded apps in parallel to its desktop offerings. Even today, Microsoft still maintains two very different client operating systems in its primary offerings: Windows 7 for desktop PCs and the Windows CE-based Windows Mobile platform.



The company is also struggling to wean PC users and licensees from Windows XP to the latest Windows 7 release, so that the company can at least narrow down its primary support efforts to one PC client operating system. It's not there yet.



Microsoft vs Google: don't follow our lead



Google isn't managing its Android platform as strictly as Microsoft ran Windows, allowing its licensees to incorporate their own user interfaces and not forcing them to follow a strong reference design in terms of hardware. This may allow the company to escape from the same fate Microsoft faced with the Zune, and allow the company to successfully do what Microsoft hasn't yet dared: ship smartphones and PC devices that directly compete with its partners.



At the same time, Google's Nexus One has almost universally been described by tech observers as a "Droid killer" in reference to its one-upmanship of last season's flagship Android model. The company has tried to play off any threat by advertising the Droid as Verizon's alternative to Nexus One for users who prefer that carrier. However, it has also announced plans to bring its own branded model to Verizon in the near future.



Whether this will alienate Motorola as an Android partner just after the company focused all of its resources on Google's platform remains to be seen. Google has indicated that it may launch new Nexus One successors in partnership with other manufacturers.



The move may also intimidate the beleaguered Sony Ericsson, which has floundered from Windows Mobile to Symbian to Android looking for a sophisticated phone platform that could allow it to compete with the iPhone. Sony has indicated that it will pull out of its partnership with Ericsson if the group does not return to profitability, a move that would kill what is the third most significant Android licensee.



Meanwhile, LG has worked to keep one foot firmly planted in the Windows Mobile camp while talking about Android products, while Samsung has announced that it will launch its own Bada platform rather than focusing on Android. Even the maker of the Nexus One, HTC, has floated the plan to build BREW phones that it can sell for cheaper than its array of Android or Windows Mobile devices.



The more different competitors Apple faces in smartphones, the better it fares. One major reason why Apple lost its pioneering position in graphical desktop PCs to Microsoft in the 90s was related to the company's efforts to stamp out rivals in "look and feel" lawsuits during the late 80s that shut down windowing products from HP and GEM, leaving Microsoft free rein to consolidate a competitive-free monopoly juggernaut around its own Windows product.



In this decade, Apple has conspicuously refrained from attacking rivals on copyright or patent infringement issues in both the iPod and iPhone markets, outside of defensive measures it has taken against patent challenges from Creative and more recently Nokia. Competing in the market has historically worked out much more successfully for Apple than trying to compete in court.

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 76
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    The first graph is wrong. The smartphone column should be mostly open now that Symbian is open. At the very least it should be mostly licensed.
  • Reply 2 of 76
    Quote: Microsoft vs Google: don't follow our lead



    Best advice Microsoft can give to anyone.
  • Reply 3 of 76
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    At the same time, Google's Nexus One has almost universally been described by tech observers as a "Droid killer" in reference to its one-upmanship of last season's flagship Android model. The company has tried to play off any threat by advertising the Droid as Verizon's alternative to Nexus One for users who prefer that carrier. However, it has also announced plans to bring its own branded model to Verizon in the near future.



    Whether this will alienate Motorola as an Android partner just after the company focused all of its resources on Google's platform remains to be seen.



    One way of confirming the alienation would be for Motorola to make a bid for Palm.
  • Reply 4 of 76
    rbonnerrbonner Posts: 635member
    Of course they would say this, Google is direct competition. They hit Google, Droid, and any Android variant.



    They can use the losses in Zune to prop up Windows based phones. Great way to get their investment back.
  • Reply 5 of 76
    ifailifail Posts: 463member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    The company is also struggling to wean PC users and licensees from Windows XP to the latest Windows 7 release, so that the company can at least narrow down its primary support efforts to one PC client operating system. It's not there yet.



    I was under the impression Microsoft issued a July 2010 cutoff for XP users for support. Personally Windows 7 blows XP out the water so those who choose not to upgrade (probably because they are running ancient PCs) are just stupid not to do so, and even netbooks can run Windows 7 without choking out.



    If only MS made a Zune phone...but id settle just for Zune on mac to begin with.
  • Reply 6 of 76
    iansilviansilv Posts: 283member
    AAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA! HA!



    Ahem...



    Microsoft is quickly going down the path of irrelevancy.
  • Reply 7 of 76
    dreyfus2dreyfus2 Posts: 1,072member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    The first graph is wrong. The smartphone column should be mostly open now that Symbian is open. At the very least it should be mostly licensed.



    Depends on the point of view I guess. People do not really interact with Symbian, they interact with e.g. S60 (which is not open)... even the requirements for third party apps depend more on the GUI than on the underpinnings.



    Another question (along these lines) would be, if Android and Windows Mobile devices using glued-on custom GUIs can really be considered "open" or "licensed" when the entire user experience is proprietary...



    ===



    Other than that, it is just another attempt of MS trying to make predictions based on own inabilities. They have never worked out. All Google needs to do to limit negative effects of making an "own" (not really, it is a HTC phone) model, is to make sure that other parties get timely access to new versions of the OS. As the sources are available, this would allow them to compete fairly. MS making an own phone would always give them a huge lead (if they do it right), as they could implement functionality others have no access to (without going through lengthy, error-prone and expensive cycles of reverse engineering or paying extra for each interface to be licensed).



    The fact remains: At this point Windows Mobile is not offering anything that puts it ahead of Android (and the distance to WebOS and iPhone OS is even bigger). Android is free, Windows Mobile is not. The cost of developing custom GUIs should be fairly similar - actually Android might even have a clear lead here, as creating custom GUIs for a system with available sources should be a lot easier than dealing with a closed system.
  • Reply 8 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ifail View Post


    If only MS made a Zune phone...but id settle just for Zune on mac to begin with.



    Frankly, I'm not too sure that Zune on Windows is going to last much longer.



    They stopped all Zune models except for the Zune HD and pulled that one back to the United States only. Unless Microsoft increased Zune marketshare during the holiday selling season, I'd wager that Zune is just about gone.
  • Reply 9 of 76
    junkiejunkie Posts: 122member
    The Zune HD sucks. I went to BestBuy to look for it. First, they did not have a display unit for months. Then they finally got it and it had NO content on it. So you could see pretty animations for the menus but nothing much else. And that screen, while I guess it is nice on some level, it seemed really small. Is it even as big and the iPod Touch? Seemed smaller - so what is the point?



    Then you go to look at an iPod touch, it is loaded with games, all sorts of cool stuff and an huge eco-system of stuff and apps. You have to be insane to think you'd get more out of owning a Zune.
  • Reply 10 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    Frankly, I'm not too sure that Zune on Windows is going to last much longer.



    They stopped all Zune models except for the Zune HD and pulled that one back to the United States only. Unless Microsoft increased Zune marketshare during the holiday selling season, I'd wager that Zune is just about gone.



    The Zune HD isn't a bad product though, one of my friends is a die hard Apple fanboy, and she is in love with the Zune HD, and she has 2 iPod touches and an iPhone. It's got a great screen for movies and a slick interface, and she says it's much easier to use as an MP3 player than the iPod app for iPhone OS, She said if it had the Apps that are available for the iPhone, she'd choose it instead of an iPod Touch.
  • Reply 11 of 76
    dreyfus2dreyfus2 Posts: 1,072member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Masterz1337 View Post


    The Zune HD isn't a bad product though, ...



    Agree, it is just too little too late. As MS has drawn a random line between the PMP and the phone development, it lacks too many things the iPod touch has out of the box (contacts, email, calendar, notes) and that do make sense, even on a WiFi-only device. It has a poor browser. And the entry price to their ecosystem is too high, as they have removed all lower price models from the line-up. They simply do not have the international coverage Apple has, and even where they try, it is completely unattractive (stupid obscure point based pricing that confuses potential buyers, pretty high prices - e.g. 720p movies are 70-90% more expensive in the Xbox marketplace when compared to iTunes)... not the way to attack the market leader.



    On top of that: most growth in the MP3/PMP market is international now, the US has a much higher level of market saturation. Limiting a device to the most saturated market is a strategy only MS can come up with.
  • Reply 12 of 76
    daseindasein Posts: 139member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post


    Quote: Microsoft vs Google: don't follow our lead



    Best advice Microsoft can give to anyone.



    This presents something of a conundrum: Given MS's recent business decisions and practices, "don't follow our lead" might seem sound advice. But since the source is MS itself, one would do well to consider doing the exact opposite....unless MS is getting it right this time.
  • Reply 13 of 76
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    well, Zune/MS bashing is fun, and Google's Android strategy is certainly an interesting topic. but still this AI article is pretty much a rehash of previous ones. the hot topics this day are instead the rumored delay of WinMo 7 until 2011, with the upcoming unveiling of WinMo 6.6(?) next month in its place. Come on, guys, take a whack!



    http://www.techspot.com/news/37563-R...n-to-2011.html



    http://windowsitpro.com/article/arti...ws-mobile.html
  • Reply 14 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Bach presided over Microsoft's own "PlaysForSure" Windows Media strategy for delivering a licensed software platform that hardware makers could use to build MP3 players, in competition with Apple's iPod. When that program failed to gain much traction, Microsoft similarly took matters into its own hands by announcing a plan to deliver a Microsoft-branded Windows Media player under the Zune brand.



    If Microsoft truly believes that PlaysForSure's demise came as a result of the Zune, then Microsoft has much bigger problems!
  • Reply 15 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post


    well, Zune/MS bashing is fun, and Google's Android strategy is certainly an interesting topic. but still this AI article is pretty much a rehash of previous ones. the hot topics this day are instead the rumored delay of WinMo 7 until 2011, with the upcoming unveiling of WinMo 6.6(?) next month in its place. Come on, guys, take a whack!



    http://www.techspot.com/news/37563-R...n-to-2011.html



    http://windowsitpro.com/article/arti...ws-mobile.html



  • Reply 16 of 76
    The Zune HD isn't bad at all, but lacks any cohesiveness with WinMob, thus again both platforms shooting itself in the foot. It's a good example though of how Microsoft does things, first try is an uttler embarrassment, 2nd try is much better but still behind, and third time is a charm.



    And while 480x272 may be widescreen, it doesn't to much good when the device features web browsing. In that case give me 480x320.
  • Reply 17 of 76
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Masterz1337 View Post


    The Zune HD isn't a bad product though, one of my friends is a die hard Apple fanboy, and she is in love with the Zune HD ...



    Just to be picky ...



    If she is in love with the Zune she would be a "fanboi" not a "fanboy."
  • Reply 18 of 76
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iansilv View Post


    AAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA! HA!



    Ahem...



    Microsoft is quickly going down the path of irrelevancy.



    Yes, that usually comes from owning 95% of desktop OS market...
  • Reply 19 of 76
    some zune reviews (on amazon) are hilarious



    I eventually did what I had dreamed of doing ... took the Zune on my kitchen floor and fixed my problem with a few blows of a hammer.







    i wonder what users will do to their winmo 7 phones???
  • Reply 20 of 76
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Masterz1337 View Post


    The Zune HD isn't a bad product though, one of my friends is a die hard Apple fanboy, and she is in love with the Zune HD, and she has 2 iPod touches and an iPhone. It's got a great screen for movies and a slick interface, and she says it's much easier to use as an MP3 player than the iPod app for iPhone OS, She said if it had the Apps that are available for the iPhone, she'd choose it instead of an iPod Touch.



    I never understand when people say things like that. Perhaps you can go ask your friend what it is that makes the Zune HD "much easier to use" as an MP3 player than a Touch?



    Cause it appears to me that on a Touch you tap the music app icon and go straight to a list of music, sortable by artist, album, or song, with options for playlists or the genius function. The album view use horizontal cover flow with album art.



    On the Zune you tap "Music" in a text list and go to a music app that lets you sort by artist, album or song. The album view is a scrolling vertical list with album art.



    I'm having trouble seeing how much easier either one could be.
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