Just look at the evidence from the UK - sales have exploded since O2's exclusivity deal ended. Given that Americans are much more reluctant to change carriers, the effect of a Verizon iPhone will only be even greater.
The iPhone is sold worldwide. Some countries will have LTE a lot sooner.
Yes look how the choice of helped expand the UK, France, and Germany but all the other carriers were GSM. The only other place you find CDMA are the US a several third world countries Qualcomm could convince to invest in their network.
These "analysts" have been making these predictions since Christmas of 2007. I am amazed by how much they blow out of proportion how much of an impact this would really have. I am no analyst...but I can think of a few reasons why this guy is nothing more than an overpaid moron.
1. Apple is not going to announce a product that could in any way impact the current sales of that product 6 months in advance. Apple is paid by AT&T not only for the phone subsidy, but also as a 3rd party reseller. Whatever the reason, Apple is not going to risk slowing down their sales and revenue. This is pretty standard.
2. This event is about the Tablet. The "one more thing" will certainly not be a rather boring announcement that an existing product will be available on another network. That would be horribly anti-climactic.
3. The tablet as a CDMA product...maybe...but seems kind of shortsighted, especially as the "launch" product. If they are going to sell these globally, they are going to have a GSM variant one way or the other, so it seems odd that this is even mentioned as significant.
4. Apple probably realizes that while Verizon may sell a significant number of handsets, a high percentage of them would not be new iPhone users, but rather customers who would probably purchase the new handset one way or the other. I don't think Verizon getting the iPhone would impact sales as much as analysts seem to think.
5. Does anyone else think it would be odd for Verizon to take aggressive steps by cutting their unlimited data plan by $30, upping their ETF's, entering the advertising fray attacking the iPhone directly, all within the last few months. These don't sound like things that a company who knows they are about to get the iPhone would do, especially if these dramatic sales are expected.
I am not saying it won't come to Verizon, but these are just a few of the reasons that I think this analyst is no different than all the other idiots out there who get paid a lot of money for being right almost never, especially about Apple. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Apple has bigger and better things planned, and I don't think they see Verizon as the savior of the iPhone...even with service woes the iPhone platform is doing just fine.
Would not surprise me in the least. If the event consisted of:
1) iLife X
2) iWork X
3) iPhone 4.0
4) a new multi-touch link for 1 2 & 3..
---
Encore: iPhone 4th Gen hardware, running on CDMA or GSM.
That would be a more than complete Apple event. People who expect ALL of the above AND the Tablet are about to be so thoroughly disappointed me thinks.
Okay... lets sit back a second...
Are you actually suggesting that Apple isn't going to announce a tablet next week?
Sorry to break the bad news to you... but they more assuredly are.
Why you ask?
#1 - The entire free world and most importantly WALL STREET is very much convinced and is expecting a table announcement. If Apple we to NOT deliver on it their stock would fall so far you'd not be able to see the floor.
#2 - Apple has a history of officially leaking things to temper expectations on products... Apple did it with the iPod Touch not having a camera... If they'd do it for something as minor as that then you gotta know they'd do it for something as major as a non-existant tablet!
Either way, it would be cool if new iLife and iWork came through at the event. But if they go with the 'X' naming scheme, I just really hope they don't pull a QuickTime X and make the packages suck.
One more thing.... we're going to fund AT&T with $5B of our cash so that they can fully build out their network.
If they are going to do that they should take another $10B (Current NOK Market Value $10.6B) and buy out Nokia and get all those patents and royalties that they claim to be getting, that way they would be off our legal back.
Both analysts' CDMA-related rumors make no sense. Qualcomm's dual chips are not ready yet, which leaves only a CDMA-only iPhone as the remaining option to get it on verizon. But Apple has a history of simplicity when it comes to their product lines. For example, if you buy a MacBook through Best Buy or Amazon, it is the same machine you would get at the Apple Store or anywhere else. Compare that to buying say a Sony laptop where the specs for the same "model" can be dramatically different depending where you purchased it. I remember the nightmare of trying to comparison shop a laptop at Best Buy vs Sony Style store. The Sony rep claimed that their store would always have the latest and highest spec machines. So I left Best Buy and went over and found a Pentium branded/class CPU, half the RAM and HD space for $200 more. How can an average consumer be expected to figure all of that out?
Now someone thinks Apple will fragment their market by offering CDMA only phones for Verizon that will be compatible almost nowhere meaningful outside of the US? This, when Apple's earnings all point to faster growth in international markets? And LTE is a dream that is years away for carriers. Verizon has nothing close to resembling national coverage, which means that in areas without LTE, the phone would have to downshift back to EV-DO (CDMA), so you just end up right back at the same argument against a CDMA-only iPhone, since having LTE-only at this point is useless in the US. And what does one do with a CDMA-only iPhone when you decide to upgrade? Give it to another consumer who later finds they can't activate on their AT&T service because this was the CDMA Verizon only model? Again, confusing. And how many units should Apple produce? Make too many and you end with an expensive and rapidly depreciating glut of CDMA iPhones. Make too little and you get crap for it. Then later deal with the headache of service complaints that the user can't use their iPhone in a foreign country, or that they can't surf the web or make any other use of their data connection when they're on a phone call (though I hear this problem is fixed in EV-DO Rev.A???), or that their Visual VM function doesn't work cuz VZ hasn't added compatible functionality to their network.
Guys let's face it. It's clear that Apple is doing just fine without Verizon, both domestically and internationally (especially internationally, and they run GSM networks for the most part). The incremental revenue and earnings are quickly offset by consumer confusion and fragmentation. Look at the example of Android. How many versions are in the wild? 1.5, 1.6, 2.0, cupcakes, eclairs, and melted ice cream? And how many screen resolutions to deal with? 320x480? 480x800? 480x89361439??? Has anyone seen resolution independence built in as a basic guideline of the Android development environment? If you are in love with VZ or your AT&T reception is that unusuable, then by all means, please knock yourself out on whatever
VZ compatible phone meets your needs. If you're one of those chronic complainers that always says "I won't get an iPhone until it [fill in the blank]..." then please continue to enjoy whatever you're using and leave the rest of us happily in peace... And quiet.
Damn if that is the "one last thing" how boring and uninspiring would that be.
I know that lots of Americans would jump for joy, but for most of the rest of the planet that already standardised on gsm it would be a waste, if there is a one last thing please be something decent!
I can?t see it as the final reveal of the event. I don?t see a Verizon iPhone before one for T-Mobile but I will be happy if they do announce one since that means the stock will skyrocket regardless of what else is introduced that day.
I wonder if the CDMA phones that they created for the Chinese market are compatible with the Verizon CDMA network? Personally, I'll stick with GSM.
The iPhones for China Unicom are GSM-based all the way. The only potential HW change was to the WiFi, but we still have no confirmation if it?s a removal of the antenna, the unlikely removal of the multi-function chip that include WiFi, or simply a firmware change.
With the success the iPhone has seen in China I?d think that an announcement of a CDMA-basediPhone in the US would be immediately followed by an announcement of a CDMA-based phone for China Mobile with a staggering 522M users? and growing fast in both user base and 3G users.
Either way, it would be cool if new iLife and iWork came through at the event. But if they go with the 'X' naming scheme, I just really hope they don't pull a QuickTime X and make the packages suck.
I think we?ll have to wait on that. It?s not the right venue for it if it focuses on mobile devices. I think they?ll go with ?X? for all the Cocoa/64-bit conversions, like with QuickTime X, that was only in version 7.6 when they made the change. One thing to remember is that the rewrite from Carbon to Cocoa isn?t a trivial change. With QT X I understand the UI changes and lack of features that QT 7 accumulated over 18 years (a bit of hyperbole ), but with iLife and iTunes they pretty much have to have it working exactly the same.
PS: I would think Apple would introduce iTunes X to devs before they release it to the public, presumably next September-ish for the iPod Special Event.
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc
i would be extremely happy if "one more thing" were an actual apple computer.
upgrade the towers! for the love of god upgrade the towers!
I don?t think is the right venue for this. I think it would be better to separate the Mac event and iPhone/Tablet accessory devices event from each other.
I wonder if the tablet and iPhone are ready to be announced a presumed 3-6 month ahead of time and then have a Mac special event in February or March. The pro Macs are already overdue for release and the processors appear to be in good supply.
Comments
This is why ATT is lowering their rates. They don't want a mass exodus.
att dropped their rates cause vzw announced it first.
the "one more thing" could also be a giant robotic badger.
LOL...that would drive my 2 dachshunds CRAZY!!!
A Verizon iPhone makes sense now.
Just look at the evidence from the UK - sales have exploded since O2's exclusivity deal ended. Given that Americans are much more reluctant to change carriers, the effect of a Verizon iPhone will only be even greater.
The iPhone is sold worldwide. Some countries will have LTE a lot sooner.
Yes look how the choice of helped expand the UK, France, and Germany but all the other carriers were GSM. The only other place you find CDMA are the US a several third world countries Qualcomm could convince to invest in their network.
1. Apple is not going to announce a product that could in any way impact the current sales of that product 6 months in advance. Apple is paid by AT&T not only for the phone subsidy, but also as a 3rd party reseller. Whatever the reason, Apple is not going to risk slowing down their sales and revenue. This is pretty standard.
2. This event is about the Tablet. The "one more thing" will certainly not be a rather boring announcement that an existing product will be available on another network. That would be horribly anti-climactic.
3. The tablet as a CDMA product...maybe...but seems kind of shortsighted, especially as the "launch" product. If they are going to sell these globally, they are going to have a GSM variant one way or the other, so it seems odd that this is even mentioned as significant.
4. Apple probably realizes that while Verizon may sell a significant number of handsets, a high percentage of them would not be new iPhone users, but rather customers who would probably purchase the new handset one way or the other. I don't think Verizon getting the iPhone would impact sales as much as analysts seem to think.
5. Does anyone else think it would be odd for Verizon to take aggressive steps by cutting their unlimited data plan by $30, upping their ETF's, entering the advertising fray attacking the iPhone directly, all within the last few months. These don't sound like things that a company who knows they are about to get the iPhone would do, especially if these dramatic sales are expected.
I am not saying it won't come to Verizon, but these are just a few of the reasons that I think this analyst is no different than all the other idiots out there who get paid a lot of money for being right almost never, especially about Apple. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Apple has bigger and better things planned, and I don't think they see Verizon as the savior of the iPhone...even with service woes the iPhone platform is doing just fine.
I wonder if the CDMA phones that they created for the Chinese market are compatible with the Verizon CDMA network? Personally, I'll stick with GSM.
I doubt non-existent hardware is compatible with Verizon's CDMA network.
Would not surprise me in the least. If the event consisted of:
1) iLife X
2) iWork X
3) iPhone 4.0
4) a new multi-touch link for 1 2 & 3..
---
Encore: iPhone 4th Gen hardware, running on CDMA or GSM.
That would be a more than complete Apple event. People who expect ALL of the above AND the Tablet are about to be so thoroughly disappointed me thinks.
Okay... lets sit back a second...
Are you actually suggesting that Apple isn't going to announce a tablet next week?
Sorry to break the bad news to you... but they more assuredly are.
Why you ask?
#1 - The entire free world and most importantly WALL STREET is very much convinced and is expecting a table announcement. If Apple we to NOT deliver on it their stock would fall so far you'd not be able to see the floor.
#2 - Apple has a history of officially leaking things to temper expectations on products... Apple did it with the iPod Touch not having a camera... If they'd do it for something as minor as that then you gotta know they'd do it for something as major as a non-existant tablet!
Either way, it would be cool if new iLife and iWork came through at the event. But if they go with the 'X' naming scheme, I just really hope they don't pull a QuickTime X and make the packages suck.
One more thing.... we're going to fund AT&T with $5B of our cash so that they can fully build out their network.
If they are going to do that they should take another $10B (Current NOK Market Value $10.6B) and buy out Nokia and get all those patents and royalties that they claim to be getting, that way they would be off our legal back.
After "There's a map for that" and the island of misfit toys commercial - there will not be a Verizon iPhone as long as Steve Jobs lives.
That was my first thought.....
Steve hasn't used "One more thing" in years.
...and that was my second....
upgrade the towers! for the love of god upgrade the towers!
Now someone thinks Apple will fragment their market by offering CDMA only phones for Verizon that will be compatible almost nowhere meaningful outside of the US? This, when Apple's earnings all point to faster growth in international markets? And LTE is a dream that is years away for carriers. Verizon has nothing close to resembling national coverage, which means that in areas without LTE, the phone would have to downshift back to EV-DO (CDMA), so you just end up right back at the same argument against a CDMA-only iPhone, since having LTE-only at this point is useless in the US. And what does one do with a CDMA-only iPhone when you decide to upgrade? Give it to another consumer who later finds they can't activate on their AT&T service because this was the CDMA Verizon only model? Again, confusing. And how many units should Apple produce? Make too many and you end with an expensive and rapidly depreciating glut of CDMA iPhones. Make too little and you get crap for it. Then later deal with the headache of service complaints that the user can't use their iPhone in a foreign country, or that they can't surf the web or make any other use of their data connection when they're on a phone call (though I hear this problem is fixed in EV-DO Rev.A???), or that their Visual VM function doesn't work cuz VZ hasn't added compatible functionality to their network.
Guys let's face it. It's clear that Apple is doing just fine without Verizon, both domestically and internationally (especially internationally, and they run GSM networks for the most part). The incremental revenue and earnings are quickly offset by consumer confusion and fragmentation. Look at the example of Android. How many versions are in the wild? 1.5, 1.6, 2.0, cupcakes, eclairs, and melted ice cream? And how many screen resolutions to deal with? 320x480? 480x800? 480x89361439??? Has anyone seen resolution independence built in as a basic guideline of the Android development environment? If you are in love with VZ or your AT&T reception is that unusuable, then by all means, please knock yourself out on whatever
VZ compatible phone meets your needs. If you're one of those chronic complainers that always says "I won't get an iPhone until it [fill in the blank]..." then please continue to enjoy whatever you're using and leave the rest of us happily in peace... And quiet.
Damn if that is the "one last thing" how boring and uninspiring would that be.
I know that lots of Americans would jump for joy, but for most of the rest of the planet that already standardised on gsm it would be a waste, if there is a one last thing please be something decent!
I can?t see it as the final reveal of the event. I don?t see a Verizon iPhone before one for T-Mobile but I will be happy if they do announce one since that means the stock will skyrocket regardless of what else is introduced that day.
World's first commercial LTE network is now ON in Stockholm since mid-December 2009.
image: http://gadgets.boingboing.net/bugger.jpg
I wonder if the CDMA phones that they created for the Chinese market are compatible with the Verizon CDMA network? Personally, I'll stick with GSM.
The iPhones for China Unicom are GSM-based all the way. The only potential HW change was to the WiFi, but we still have no confirmation if it?s a removal of the antenna, the unlikely removal of the multi-function chip that include WiFi, or simply a firmware change.
With the success the iPhone has seen in China I?d think that an announcement of a CDMA-basediPhone in the US would be immediately followed by an announcement of a CDMA-based phone for China Mobile with a staggering 522M users? and growing fast in both user base and 3G users.
Either way, it would be cool if new iLife and iWork came through at the event. But if they go with the 'X' naming scheme, I just really hope they don't pull a QuickTime X and make the packages suck.
I think we?ll have to wait on that. It?s not the right venue for it if it focuses on mobile devices. I think they?ll go with ?X? for all the Cocoa/64-bit conversions, like with QuickTime X, that was only in version 7.6 when they made the change. One thing to remember is that the rewrite from Carbon to Cocoa isn?t a trivial change. With QT X I understand the UI changes and lack of features that QT 7 accumulated over 18 years (a bit of hyperbole
PS: I would think Apple would introduce iTunes X to devs before they release it to the public, presumably next September-ish for the iPod Special Event.
i would be extremely happy if "one more thing" were an actual apple computer.
upgrade the towers! for the love of god upgrade the towers!
I don?t think is the right venue for this. I think it would be better to separate the Mac event and iPhone/Tablet accessory devices event from each other.
I wonder if the tablet and iPhone are ready to be announced a presumed 3-6 month ahead of time and then have a Mac special event in February or March. The pro Macs are already overdue for release and the processors appear to be in good supply.