Preorders for Apple iPad slow after 120K first-day rush
Enthusiasts tracking presales of the iPad believe Apple sold 120,000 units on its first day of availability, though excitement is estimated to have dropped considerably on days two and three.
Users on the AAPL Sanity Board at Investor Village have taken their order numbers and used them to figure out how many total preorders Apple has taken for the iPad. On Friday, the first day of availability, they determined that an estimated 51,000 units were sold in the first two hours. By the end of the day, they found that 120,000 were secured in the first 24 hours.
But according to Philip Elmer-DeWitt with Fortune Brainstorm Tech, by Saturday and Sunday those order estimates had slowed to about 1,000 per hour, suggesting demand for the device died off considerably after the first day.
Daniel Tello, who has been tracking the numbers closely, predicted that Apple will sell about 30,000 iPad preorders on weekdays, and half of that on weekends. He forecasts no more than a half-million preorders and reservations will be taken before the April 3 launch. He told Elmer-DeWitt he believes Apple will sell 1 million iPads by the second week after the device ships.
Most among the preorders tracked at Investor Village opted for the Wi-Fi-only model, coming on top by a two-to-one margin. The Wi-Fi iPad will be available April 3, while the 3G-enabled versions, which carry a $130 premium, will arrive later that month. Preorders saw a relatively even split among capacities, with the largest model, 64GB, accounting for 35 percent of orders.
Users who wish to add to the iPad sales tracking project can help by sending their order number with the last three digits X-ed out, the number of iPads ordered, order time, time zone, memory capacity and whether they purchased a 3G or Wi-Fi model to ipadsales10@gmail.com.
Despite the sharp drop-off in preorders, a half-million sales before the product ships would be an excellent start for Apple, as low-end estimates on Wall Street had forecast the iPad would sell 1 million units in its entire first year. Tello's numbers, on the other hand, would have Apple reaching that milestone in a matter of weeks.
Users on the AAPL Sanity Board at Investor Village have taken their order numbers and used them to figure out how many total preorders Apple has taken for the iPad. On Friday, the first day of availability, they determined that an estimated 51,000 units were sold in the first two hours. By the end of the day, they found that 120,000 were secured in the first 24 hours.
But according to Philip Elmer-DeWitt with Fortune Brainstorm Tech, by Saturday and Sunday those order estimates had slowed to about 1,000 per hour, suggesting demand for the device died off considerably after the first day.
Daniel Tello, who has been tracking the numbers closely, predicted that Apple will sell about 30,000 iPad preorders on weekdays, and half of that on weekends. He forecasts no more than a half-million preorders and reservations will be taken before the April 3 launch. He told Elmer-DeWitt he believes Apple will sell 1 million iPads by the second week after the device ships.
Most among the preorders tracked at Investor Village opted for the Wi-Fi-only model, coming on top by a two-to-one margin. The Wi-Fi iPad will be available April 3, while the 3G-enabled versions, which carry a $130 premium, will arrive later that month. Preorders saw a relatively even split among capacities, with the largest model, 64GB, accounting for 35 percent of orders.
Users who wish to add to the iPad sales tracking project can help by sending their order number with the last three digits X-ed out, the number of iPads ordered, order time, time zone, memory capacity and whether they purchased a 3G or Wi-Fi model to ipadsales10@gmail.com.
Despite the sharp drop-off in preorders, a half-million sales before the product ships would be an excellent start for Apple, as low-end estimates on Wall Street had forecast the iPad would sell 1 million units in its entire first year. Tello's numbers, on the other hand, would have Apple reaching that milestone in a matter of weeks.
Comments
Even if one were to bring it along in some situations, with a wealth of content stored on the unit and many programs as well, lack of 3G capability will not mean the iPad is useless beyond the range of one's router.
We all pay ridiculous amounts of money to service providers as it is. I suspect yet another monthly bill is not something many of us are that willing to take on.
All this before any of us insignificant mortals have touched one :-)
It's still gonna be at least 5M in the first year - $3 Billion + hehe
I think there will be another large rush once they are in stores and people have the chance to put their hands on them. As well many people are probably holding out for the 3g model.
Or not. Pent-up demand always works like this. So many words thrown upon such an obvious phenomenon.
You're kidding me, you expected maybe 100,000 a day all week?
All this before any of us insignificant mortals have touched one :-)
It's still gonna be at least 5M in the first year - $3 Billion + hehe
It wasn't stated that 100,000 was expected, but merely that the sales have dropped off since day one.
I was all ready to pull the trigger and buy one, sell my laptop, and just use my Mac Mini and iPad for the foreseeable future. I just cannot get past the lack of flash support. I realize that flash will be weeded out in the longer term, but this will not happen in the next few months, but instead a couple of years. Also, the lack of capabilities in the browser, such as text searching really bothers me. Maybe rev. 2?
I had SUCH HIGH HOPES for the iPad to be more like a refined, flash-based Axiotron Modbook, instead of a more powerful iPhone-like device. If the iPad had used the iPhone OS, but with more capabilities (specifically including optional stylus input for entering kanji by hand like I can do on a tablet PC) I would have jumped on it the first day no matter its other limitations. I guess many of us will have to see what the iPhone OS 4.0 will bring to Apple's devices.
The Wi-Fi only model makes a lot of sense. The iPad is far less likely to be a device many of us will carry around outside the home in many situations in contrast to pocketable devices like the iPhone and Touch.
I love my iPhone for on the go calendar, contacts, mail, etc. I'm a mobile me user. I see the iPad as a Better mobile utility than lugging around my MacBook pro. I'm still considering my options, but I live in japan where we have 3G everywhere and iPhone has been so good for me because of the network connection. That's why I'm thinking the 3G model, even though I may also not want another monthly fee for Internet. As excited as I am, I'll go play with one in the apple store before I buy one. I think a lot of people will. But just because apple is trying to role up the home market doesn't mean we all see it as a home device.
The Wi-Fi only model makes a lot of sense. The iPad is far less likely to be a device many of us will carry around outside the home in many situations in contrast to pocketable devices like the iPhone and Touch.
Even if one were to bring it along in some situations, with a wealth of content stored on the unit and many programs as well, lack of 3G capability will not mean the iPad is useless beyond the range of one's router.
We all pay ridiculous amounts of money to service providers as it is. I suspect yet another monthly bill is not something many of us are that willing to take on.
I disagree with this assessment. I do agree that I am not interested in being tied to another monthly charge, that is why the month to month plan at a reasonable rate is so huge. When I buy, it will be the 3G. It will cost me $45 a year in data charges because I will only sign up for the summer and one other month that encompases a vacation (depending on whether I travel Chrimas or Easter to visit the parents).
The one time premium will be made up quickly over the summer.
AND I will have the option to expand my use if I see value in it that I do not anticipate at
present.
Still, like many, I will not buy until
I touch it and get user reviews. But I don't feel like I will need to wait until Rev B for this device...
What about international pre-orders? There are people who want to pre-order in the UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, etc.
Not many I bet. The iBooks store is a US exclusive, so the iPad abroad is an ereader with no ebooks.
Apple aren't, understandably, publicising the lack of books abroad. I wonder how many returns they'll get on day two when people find out about this somewhat deal breaking oversight.
As far as the lack of 3g, I've actually been doing quite well without it on the Touch. I get WiFi at home, school, work, library, and sometimes even on the L from people who have unsecured connection. Yes there are times when I wish I had 3G, especially for maps and last.fm, but its not as big a deal as I thought it would be, especially with the limits ATT puts on its 3G customers.
I think once people start to see them in the hands of others in trains, planes and coffee shops, this will take off.
Maybe for the Starbucks poser crowd, but my vouch is for store presence. I know at least 3 persons who wait for a hands on preview 1st.