His comments seem like mostly personal opinion, and it's hard to put much stock into the opinion of someone with such obvious personal biases.
Ah. I see. It is not a matter of evaluating the points he makes. It is a matter of accepting/rejecting the message based upon the attributes of the messenger.
What about the points he makes? Why just insult the author?
Do you really think that the claim that (and I'm paraphrasing since I couldn't be bothered hitting up his blog for an exact quote) "anyone who thinks the iPad is a game-changer is a tool" is worth addressing?
I am actually laughing out loud. Didn't Munster go round a few queues and compare the number of people in line with those at launch for the iPhone. Rigorous. If anyone's interested there may be a position as chief analyst/psychic opening up. Priceless!
That's quite a lot of immaturity or perhaps a lack of an expanded grasp of the language.
Anyone who can only think or focus on the feminine association of the term Pad, is more reflective of the person, rather than the choice of Apple.
That it is repeated even in the New York Times says much about the state of journalism these days.
CGC
Are you upset because despite the name you can't use it for yourself once a month? Don't worry you can still wear pantyhose when you get home from work. Just don't tell your wife. Stick to those cranberry cocktails nancy.
Here's his explanation in his own words from his note:
* Where We Went Wrong. We believe that we misgauged the online pre-orders received for the iPad starting on March 12. We originally estimated online-sales to be about 75% of all iPad sales; however, it appears that online pre-orders made up about 50% of the sales, resulting in a significant unit difference.
Note that there was actually no explanation as to why he estimated online-sales to be about 75% when he revised his prediction.
Is it possible that he actually originally estimated online-sales to be about 50% originally to come up with his original 300K estimate? Or, his original 300K estimate was based from other set of information.
Where was the solid data gathered to suggest that actual online sale? As telling, one day actual data (from Apple) and he already changed his annual prediction, again???
If this was how Munster makes peedictions/projections, I hope he does not learn how to use a spreadsheet and its power in easily changing projections. He could really be all over the place,
Quote:
* Deja Vu: Wrong On Launch Day, Right On Theme. We were overly optimistic on our launch day estimates of 600-700k, similar to the iPhone launch, when we were also too aggressive. With the original iPhone we estimated sales at launch of 500k and Apple sold 270k, which concerned investors about the long-term viability of the iPhone. In CY10, we estimate iPhone sales will be 36.0m and generate 39% of Apple's revenue.
I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with 300K in one day. Let's see what the total weekend was or even a the first month sales before we pass judgemnet on whether it is a failure or not.
I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with 300K in one day. Let's see what the total weekend was or even a the first month sales before we pass judgemnet on whether it is a failure or not.
Only because we were given 2x to 2.33x time that by a professional analyst. It's a great number and well above the original expected total for the day. It also seems to be about 30% of all the tablets that were sold in world in 2009, 1.06M, by one report. By any measure its a success, but I wish Munster wouldn't make such excessive guesses as I think the market would rather be pleasantly surprised and mildly disappointed by a projection.
I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with 300K in one day. Let's see what the total weekend was or even a the first month sales before we pass judgemnet on whether it is a failure or not.
Especially so if it were the average.
But even a tenth of that for an average this year would be spectacular.
Long term, if people will think before they buy an iPad; understand exactly whether they need it (buy) or not (don't buy), the future would be great for this new device.
It is the backlash from the clueless who can potentially impact (but unlikely to derail) the iPad.
The Apps and the creative applications would determine the future of the iPad.
2: School buying season, a $500 iPad is less expensive than a $1000 MacBook.
I should note that Apple is cannibalizing sales from the iPod Touch and MacBook markets with the iPad.
The iPad requires a computer to operate, once people find this out in the stores, they likely will be upsold to a MacBook, unless the schools specifically mention a iPad.
.
An iPad would be less than half as useful to a student as an Macbook.
My sympathies to any student unfortunate enough to be given one in place of a Macbook.
Why do you imply that you think they will sell as an alternative to a Macbook and then a few paragraphs later point out an iPad requires a computer?
I would have thought the requirement for a computer would make this device rather unsuitable for students of parents with a tight budget.
Brian Marshall with Broadpoint AmTech also overestimated, predicting sales of 525,000 units over the launch weekend. The most accurate among analysts was Charlie Wolf with Needham & Company, who said he expected over 300,000 sales.
Apple's initial sales represent the U.S. only, and just the Wi-Fi model. The 3G-capable iPad will go on sale in the U.S. later this month, and both models will be available overseas in late April as well.
If those of us, like me, who are waiting for the release of the 3G version of the iPad, how might that have effected the end results of the total sales on launch day HAD both wifi and 3G iPad versions were available on the same day? \
Comments
Someone should link and create a pdf of this article:
Apple iPad Hands-On First Impressions
http://www.winsupersite.com/alt/ipad...mpressions.asp
No PDF, but I did call Thurrott out here: http://thesmallwave.com/paul-thurrott-pot-meet-kettle
His comments seem like mostly personal opinion, and it's hard to put much stock into the opinion of someone with such obvious personal biases.
Ah. I see. It is not a matter of evaluating the points he makes. It is a matter of accepting/rejecting the message based upon the attributes of the messenger.
I guess we use different methods.
You best bet is to take all POVs into account...
Some points of view are simply not worth the time.
That's a lot of get outta here Grandpa.
No. But you get out of here anyway. Or at least until you grow up.
1: By then a lot of educational software would have been written for the device.
2: School buying season, a $500 iPad is less expensive than a $1000 MacBook.
3: Jesus might also rise from his grave by then. And pigs could grow wings and start flying.
4: Also a pocket calculator costs $30, now that's cheap!
What about the points he makes? Why just insult the author?
Do you really think that the claim that (and I'm paraphrasing since I couldn't be bothered hitting up his blog for an exact quote) "anyone who thinks the iPad is a game-changer is a tool" is worth addressing?
First it was 700,000, then it was 600,000, now it's 300,000. I wonder what's next.......
Please stop with the utterly, foolishly incorrect posts.
You know that Apple had nothing whatsoever to do with the 700,000 or 600,000 number.
That's quite a lot of immaturity or perhaps a lack of an expanded grasp of the language.
Anyone who can only think or focus on the feminine association of the term Pad, is more reflective of the person, rather than the choice of Apple.
That it is repeated even in the New York Times says much about the state of journalism these days.
CGC
Are you upset because despite the name you can't use it for yourself once a month? Don't worry you can still wear pantyhose when you get home from work. Just don't tell your wife. Stick to those cranberry cocktails nancy.
Gene Munster Explains How He Blew The iPad Sales Estimates -- And Cuts His Estimates For The Year
http://www.businessinsider.com/gene-...timates-2010-4
Here's his explanation in his own words from his note:
* Where We Went Wrong. We believe that we misgauged the online pre-orders received for the iPad starting on March 12. We originally estimated online-sales to be about 75% of all iPad sales; however, it appears that online pre-orders made up about 50% of the sales, resulting in a significant unit difference.
Note that there was actually no explanation as to why he estimated online-sales to be about 75% when he revised his prediction.
Is it possible that he actually originally estimated online-sales to be about 50% originally to come up with his original 300K estimate? Or, his original 300K estimate was based from other set of information.
Where was the solid data gathered to suggest that actual online sale? As telling, one day actual data (from Apple) and he already changed his annual prediction, again???
If this was how Munster makes peedictions/projections, I hope he does not learn how to use a spreadsheet and its power in easily changing projections. He could really be all over the place,
* Deja Vu: Wrong On Launch Day, Right On Theme. We were overly optimistic on our launch day estimates of 600-700k, similar to the iPhone launch, when we were also too aggressive. With the original iPhone we estimated sales at launch of 500k and Apple sold 270k, which concerned investors about the long-term viability of the iPhone. In CY10, we estimate iPhone sales will be 36.0m and generate 39% of Apple's revenue.
At least he is being "consistent".
CGC
I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with 300K in one day. Let's see what the total weekend was or even a the first month sales before we pass judgemnet on whether it is a failure or not.
Only because we were given 2x to 2.33x time that by a professional analyst. It's a great number and well above the original expected total for the day. It also seems to be about 30% of all the tablets that were sold in world in 2009, 1.06M, by one report. By any measure its a success, but I wish Munster wouldn't make such excessive guesses as I think the market would rather be pleasantly surprised and mildly disappointed by a projection.
I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with 300K in one day. Let's see what the total weekend was or even a the first month sales before we pass judgemnet on whether it is a failure or not.
Especially so if it were the average.
But even a tenth of that for an average this year would be spectacular.
Long term, if people will think before they buy an iPad; understand exactly whether they need it (buy) or not (don't buy), the future would be great for this new device.
It is the backlash from the clueless who can potentially impact (but unlikely to derail) the iPad.
The Apps and the creative applications would determine the future of the iPad.
CGC
That's quite a lot of immaturity or perhaps a lack of an expanded grasp of the language.
Anyone who can only think or focus on the feminine association of the term Pad, is more reflective of the person, rather than the choice of Apple.
That it is repeated even in the New York Times says much about the state of journalism these days.
CGC
It also say a lot about your apparent complete lack of a sense of humour.
2: School buying season, a $500 iPad is less expensive than a $1000 MacBook.
I should note that Apple is cannibalizing sales from the iPod Touch and MacBook markets with the iPad.
The iPad requires a computer to operate, once people find this out in the stores, they likely will be upsold to a MacBook, unless the schools specifically mention a iPad.
.
An iPad would be less than half as useful to a student as an Macbook.
My sympathies to any student unfortunate enough to be given one in place of a Macbook.
Why do you imply that you think they will sell as an alternative to a Macbook and then a few paragraphs later point out an iPad requires a computer?
I would have thought the requirement for a computer would make this device rather unsuitable for students of parents with a tight budget.
Brian Marshall with Broadpoint AmTech also overestimated, predicting sales of 525,000 units over the launch weekend. The most accurate among analysts was Charlie Wolf with Needham & Company, who said he expected over 300,000 sales.
Apple's initial sales represent the U.S. only, and just the Wi-Fi model. The 3G-capable iPad will go on sale in the U.S. later this month, and both models will be available overseas in late April as well.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
If those of us, like me, who are waiting for the release of the 3G version of the iPad, how might that have effected the end results of the total sales on launch day HAD both wifi and 3G iPad versions were available on the same day?