Chinese market mirrors potential of Verizon iPhone
China Mobile, the world's largest cellular provider with more than a half billion subscribers, wants Apple to develop a custom iPhone for use on its unique TD-SCDMA 3G network. There's a lot at stake, and the situation reveals some clues about about the potential for a CDMA iPhone for Verizon Wireless here in the US.
China's TD-SCDMA experiment
Like the US, mobile providers in China are split between a 3GPP GSM/UMTS mobile network (run by China Unicom, using technology similar to AT&T and T-Mobile in the US) and Qualcomm's CDMA/EVDO (operated by China Telecom, similar to Verizon and Sprint in the US). However, the Chinese government has also worked to develop a third, incompatible 3G cellular standard known as TD-SCDMA
That work was done in order to build out parallel new mobile infrastructure that would not be reliant upon Western technology, and could therefore avoid paying patent royalties to the companies that developed it including Nokia and Qualcomm. A license to build out a TD-SCDMA, 3G mobile network was awarded to the state owned China Mobile in 2009; it previously only operated a 2G GSM/GPRS network.
Like Google's effort to deliver WebM/VP8 as a free video codec alternative to H.264, the Chinese effort to build out TD-SCDMA as a royalty free 3G network is fraught with infringement risks, because the complex technology involved in spread spectrum radio transmission is a patent minefield.
This situation mirrors the problems China experienced in attempting to create its own Western-royalty free alternative to DVD, which it called EVD. Somewhat ironically, that project used VP5 and VP6 video codecs from On2, the same company Google acquired to deliver WebM. EVD subsequently failed, and On2 ended up with no valid claims from its Chinese partners, leaving the company to recycle its efforts in taking on DVD's MPEG-2 with today's efforts to rival MPEG-4 H.264 on the web.
China Mobile calls for custom iPhone, gets put on hold
However, China is still intent upon pushing TD-SCDMA, and China Mobile has been working to woo Apple into building a custom iPhone to take advantage of the carrier's new 3G network, as it currently lacks a standout 3G phone to attract subscribers to the faster data network now being extended across the country.
Back in March, the carrier's chief executive Wang Jianzhou told the Financial Times that "including TD-SCDMA is not that hard to do," adding that "RIM is doing it." He said China Mobile wants to increase its 3G subscriber base from just under 4 million to at least 10 million this year. The balance of its subscribers are all still using 2G GSM/GPRS.
Last fall, Apple non-exclusively partnered with China Unicom, the second largest provider in China (and the ninth largest worldwide with 147,000 subscribers), to distribute the iPhone. It's the easiest Chinese carrier for Apple to accommodate, given that it runs a GSM/UMTS network like AT&T and other existing iPhone carriers worldwide.
While China Unicom has far fewer total subscribers than China Mobile (149 million vs. 527 million), it has 3.6 million subscribers on its 3G network, compared to China Mobile's 3.9 3G users (as of the end of January). Both carriers offer huge potential opportunities for dramatically increasing Apple's sales, although partnering with China Mobile requires far more work, as its TS-SCDMA is not just different but less mature. At the same time, China Mobile has the resources to build out its network faster, if it can find a popular phone to drive interest among its half billion subscribers.
WiFi rules, high prices stagnate sales
In addition to pushing TD-SCDMA, The Chinese government has also worked to push its own WAPI wireless networking standard in place of IEEE 802.11 WiFi, and subsequently outlawed the import, sale, and use of WiFi equipment in China. That had an averse impact on Apple's iPhone sales through China Unicom, as the company was forced to remove WiFi from the phones it sold there.
That WiFi restriction and subsequent handicapping of the iPhone in China appeared to depress interest in the China Unicom phone, with just 5,000 units reported sold at its launch last November.
Sales have improved a bit since, and relaxed rules that now allow WiFi should enable Apple to begin selling more attractive, WiFi capable iPhones. Official sales of the iPhone in China are also hindered by high prices: the $730-$1020 price tag is much higher than the cost of grey market iPhones brought into the country through Hong Kong.
Will Apple break its universal iPhone model?
Getting the iPhone selling in China is clearly a top priority for Apple. Its current reliance on China Unicom is expected to grow as the company launches its stock version of iPhone 4, with WiFi intact, to the Chinese market in August. If that launch is successful, it will no doubt entrench Apple's current strategy of selling one global iPhone model.
That would also likely mean that an iPhone wouldn't make it to Verizon until either LTE becomes widely available in a year or two (enabling Apple to build a single UMTS/LTE model it can sell globally), or until a hybrid GSM/UMTS/CDMA baseband chip becomes available for Apple to build an iPhone that can roam across both 3GPP and Qualcomm networks.
If a global iPhone proves too expensive or complicated to build, the company may begin targeting significant markets with custom new models, including Sprint and Verizon's CDMA/EVDO networks in the US, and China Mobile's TD-SCDMA. Currently, the lack of Apple's presence in both those areas has provided an opportunity for Android phones.
In fact, the only two markets globally where Android phones even approach the sales of iPhones, according to Google's AdMob figures, are the US and China. And that's only when AdMob calculates the entire installed base of iPhones and iOS devices to be 27 million and 40 million respectively, compared to the 60 million iPhones and 100 million iOS devices that have actually sold.
In addition to the TD-SCDMA RIM BlackBerry phones under development for sale by China Mobile, Nokia currently sells Symbian phones that work on the Chinese standard, and a variety of Android makers, including Lenovo, Motorola and Samsung, have also announced or begun selling TD-SCDMA handsets.
China's TD-SCDMA experiment
Like the US, mobile providers in China are split between a 3GPP GSM/UMTS mobile network (run by China Unicom, using technology similar to AT&T and T-Mobile in the US) and Qualcomm's CDMA/EVDO (operated by China Telecom, similar to Verizon and Sprint in the US). However, the Chinese government has also worked to develop a third, incompatible 3G cellular standard known as TD-SCDMA
That work was done in order to build out parallel new mobile infrastructure that would not be reliant upon Western technology, and could therefore avoid paying patent royalties to the companies that developed it including Nokia and Qualcomm. A license to build out a TD-SCDMA, 3G mobile network was awarded to the state owned China Mobile in 2009; it previously only operated a 2G GSM/GPRS network.
Like Google's effort to deliver WebM/VP8 as a free video codec alternative to H.264, the Chinese effort to build out TD-SCDMA as a royalty free 3G network is fraught with infringement risks, because the complex technology involved in spread spectrum radio transmission is a patent minefield.
This situation mirrors the problems China experienced in attempting to create its own Western-royalty free alternative to DVD, which it called EVD. Somewhat ironically, that project used VP5 and VP6 video codecs from On2, the same company Google acquired to deliver WebM. EVD subsequently failed, and On2 ended up with no valid claims from its Chinese partners, leaving the company to recycle its efforts in taking on DVD's MPEG-2 with today's efforts to rival MPEG-4 H.264 on the web.
China Mobile calls for custom iPhone, gets put on hold
However, China is still intent upon pushing TD-SCDMA, and China Mobile has been working to woo Apple into building a custom iPhone to take advantage of the carrier's new 3G network, as it currently lacks a standout 3G phone to attract subscribers to the faster data network now being extended across the country.
Back in March, the carrier's chief executive Wang Jianzhou told the Financial Times that "including TD-SCDMA is not that hard to do," adding that "RIM is doing it." He said China Mobile wants to increase its 3G subscriber base from just under 4 million to at least 10 million this year. The balance of its subscribers are all still using 2G GSM/GPRS.
Last fall, Apple non-exclusively partnered with China Unicom, the second largest provider in China (and the ninth largest worldwide with 147,000 subscribers), to distribute the iPhone. It's the easiest Chinese carrier for Apple to accommodate, given that it runs a GSM/UMTS network like AT&T and other existing iPhone carriers worldwide.
While China Unicom has far fewer total subscribers than China Mobile (149 million vs. 527 million), it has 3.6 million subscribers on its 3G network, compared to China Mobile's 3.9 3G users (as of the end of January). Both carriers offer huge potential opportunities for dramatically increasing Apple's sales, although partnering with China Mobile requires far more work, as its TS-SCDMA is not just different but less mature. At the same time, China Mobile has the resources to build out its network faster, if it can find a popular phone to drive interest among its half billion subscribers.
WiFi rules, high prices stagnate sales
In addition to pushing TD-SCDMA, The Chinese government has also worked to push its own WAPI wireless networking standard in place of IEEE 802.11 WiFi, and subsequently outlawed the import, sale, and use of WiFi equipment in China. That had an averse impact on Apple's iPhone sales through China Unicom, as the company was forced to remove WiFi from the phones it sold there.
That WiFi restriction and subsequent handicapping of the iPhone in China appeared to depress interest in the China Unicom phone, with just 5,000 units reported sold at its launch last November.
Sales have improved a bit since, and relaxed rules that now allow WiFi should enable Apple to begin selling more attractive, WiFi capable iPhones. Official sales of the iPhone in China are also hindered by high prices: the $730-$1020 price tag is much higher than the cost of grey market iPhones brought into the country through Hong Kong.
Will Apple break its universal iPhone model?
Getting the iPhone selling in China is clearly a top priority for Apple. Its current reliance on China Unicom is expected to grow as the company launches its stock version of iPhone 4, with WiFi intact, to the Chinese market in August. If that launch is successful, it will no doubt entrench Apple's current strategy of selling one global iPhone model.
That would also likely mean that an iPhone wouldn't make it to Verizon until either LTE becomes widely available in a year or two (enabling Apple to build a single UMTS/LTE model it can sell globally), or until a hybrid GSM/UMTS/CDMA baseband chip becomes available for Apple to build an iPhone that can roam across both 3GPP and Qualcomm networks.
If a global iPhone proves too expensive or complicated to build, the company may begin targeting significant markets with custom new models, including Sprint and Verizon's CDMA/EVDO networks in the US, and China Mobile's TD-SCDMA. Currently, the lack of Apple's presence in both those areas has provided an opportunity for Android phones.
In fact, the only two markets globally where Android phones even approach the sales of iPhones, according to Google's AdMob figures, are the US and China. And that's only when AdMob calculates the entire installed base of iPhones and iOS devices to be 27 million and 40 million respectively, compared to the 60 million iPhones and 100 million iOS devices that have actually sold.
In addition to the TD-SCDMA RIM BlackBerry phones under development for sale by China Mobile, Nokia currently sells Symbian phones that work on the Chinese standard, and a variety of Android makers, including Lenovo, Motorola and Samsung, have also announced or begun selling TD-SCDMA handsets.
Comments
~Callum
China Mobile, the world's largest cellular provider with more than a half billion subscribers, wants Apple to develop a custom iPhone for use on its unique TD-SCDMA 3G network. There's a lot at stake, and the situation reveals some clues about about the potential for a CDMA iPhone for Verizon Wireless here in the US.
China's TD-SCDMA experiment
market iPhones brought into the country through Hong Kong.
Will Apple break its universal iPhone model?
Getting the iPhone selling in China is clearly a top priority for Apple. Its current reliance on China Unicom is expected to grow as the company launches its stock version of iPhone 4, with WiFi intact, to the Chinese market in August. If that launch is successful, it will no doubt entrench Apple's current strategy of selling one global iPhone model.
That would also likely mean that an iPhone wouldn't make it to Verizon until either LTE becomes widely available in a year or two (enabling Apple to build a single UMTS/LTE model it can sell globally), or until a hybrid GSM/UMTS/CDMA baseband chip becomes available for Apple to build an iPhone that can roam across both 3GPP and Qualcomm networks.
If a global iPhone proves too expensive or complicated to build, the company may begin targeting significant markets with custom new models, including Sprint and Verizon's CDMA/EVDO networks in the US, and China Mobile's TD-SCDMA. Currently, the lack of Apple's presence in both those areas has provided an opportunity for Android phones.
In fact, the only two markets globally where Android phones even approach the sales of iPhones, according to Google's AdMob figures, are the US and China. And that's only when AdMob calculates the entire installed base of iPhones and iOS devices to be 27 million and 40 million respectively, compared to the 60 million iPhones and 100 million iOS devices that have actually sold.
In addition to the TD-SCDMA RIM BlackBerry phones under development for sale by China Mobile, Nokia currently sells Symbian phones that work on the Chinese standard, and a variety of Android makers, including Lenovo, Motorola and Samsung, have also announced or begun selling TD-SCDMA handsets.
yes apple will bow very low to appease the red commies
just like google did last week
obama is pushing apple hard for balance of trade numbers
and verizon is also a no brainer
so apple may be can sell 25 million verizon branded iphones and maybe even 10 million verizon branded ipads
concerning china >>>>
china already buys tons of jail broken iphones with wifi included
>>> sales to china looks like maybe 20 million over 4 yrs
the over all halo effect looms much larger for all apple stuff for red china
sadly as a share holder apple using slave labor in commie red china will one day have to be reckoned with
apple sadly will reap what it sows
foxcomm sucks
9
some USA factories might be a good starting point
yes apple will bow very low to appease the red commies
just like google did last week
obama is pushing apple hard for balance of trade numbers
and verizon is also a no brainer
so apple may be can sell 25 million verizon branded iphones and maybe even 10 million verizon branded ipads
concerning china >>>>
china already buys tons of jail broken iphones with wifi included
>>> sales to china looks like maybe 20 million over 4 yrs
the over all halo effect looms much larger for all apple stuff for red china
sadly as a share holder apple using slave labor in commie red china will one day have to be reckoned with
apple sadly will reap what it sows
foxcomm sucks
9
some USA factories might be a good starting point
Cut that commie. It is only for people stuck i the 60's cultural revolution.
China is already looking for a bright future, sadly most of you in the USA are glued to failed Reagan policies.
China is only communist by fame.
China is a (harsh) capitalist country with one party system.
Throw commie at Sweden, where the state IS actually a social state.
1) CDMA/CDMA2000/EVDO are standards created by 3rd Generation Partnership Project 2 (3GPP2), so even if Qualcomm is the primary technology developer/IP owner, your chart should be changed reflect both standard organizations (3GPP and 3GPP2)
2) CDMA2000/EVDO is still used in dozens of countries around the world, with hundreds of millions of subscribers. Its certainly not as widespread as GSM/UMTS, but to say that it is only Verizon and Sprint using CDMA is completely misleading.
Also, this is unrelated, but China needs to drop the communist "we will develop our own non-western technology" bullshit. The TD-SCDMA crap is just holding back the country from a widespread, unified communications network.
I have not seen this information anywhere. Is there a source for this? Please credit, would really like to see this.
And how does a phone built in china, and sold to Chinese help our balance of trade? No jobs are created domestically, no raw materials consumed, transported or converted, so no advantage gained for the economy except to stockholders.
There are some things wrong with that chart:
1) CDMA/CDMA2000/EVDO are standards created by 3rd Generation Partnership Project 2 (3GPP2), so even if Qualcomm is the primary technology developer/IP owner, your chart should be changed reflect both standard organizations (3GPP and 3GPP2)
I agree. Qualcomm has valid patents in use with 3GPP, too (not sure if TD-SCDMA was able to abolish all of them) so listing Qualcomm is inaccurate.
2) CDMA2000/EVDO is still used in dozens of countries around the world, with hundreds of millions of subscribers. Its certainly not as widespread as GSM/UMTS, but to say that it is only Verizon and Sprint using CDMA is completely misleading.
I think that is generally known and this article does compare the potential internet for Apple between a Verizon and China Mobile iPhone using a different network type.
As I've mentioned in other threads there is much to discuss on which option is better for Apple. I wager GSM/TD-SCDMA will be growing whilst CDMA/CDMA2000 will be shrinking. Currently with 550 million subs, China Mobile's numbers look pretty good.
The real question is which tech will get more buyers in the long run. I figure Verizon's 100M subs will buy more iPhones right away, but what about China Mobile in 5 years when Verizon is full on LTE and China Mobile is now using TD-LTE and if their government has decided to migrate all Chinese carriers to their homegrown network.
Also, this is unrelated, but China needs to drop the communist "we will develop our own non-western technology" bullshit. The TD-SCDMA crap is just holding back the country from a widespread, unified communications network.
They haven't excluded any other tech yet and they are quite large so I don't see them abandoning it.
"obama is pushing apple hard for balance of trade numbers"
Dumbest quote of the year.
Apple's iPhone wouldn't make even a ripple in balance of trade. What will is the Chinese revaluation of its renminbi, as recently announced. THAT will impact balance of trade.
Also, this is unrelated, but China needs to drop the communist "we will develop our own non-western technology" bullshit. The TD-SCDMA crap is just holding back the country from a widespread, unified communications network.
TD-SCDMA, I wonder if that is China's version of "Commie" control of their people's conversation?
Yeah, "Commie", I said it! I guess those who are sensitive forgot China's handling of free speech and the right to peaceably assemble in Tianamen Square!
Only "Alice in Wonderland" is make believe! Come join us in the real world.
Gotta love the provocative buzz words.
Raise your damn standards folks.
I'm confused as to why the chart says that 4G is "at least 100 Mbps," when Sprint's 4G is nowhere near that.
Because Sprint's "4G" is really Mobile WiMAx which is 3.9G.
Somewhat ironically, that project used VP5 and VP6 video codecs from On2, the same company Google acquired to deliver WebM.
This is not an "ironic" situation -- not even bad luck -- just coincidence. Please refer to the Dictionary app on your Mac and stop listening to Alanis Morissette songs.
This is not an "ironic" situation -- not even bad luck -- just coincidence. Please refer to the Dictionary app on your Mac and stop listening to Alanis Morissette songs.
Yes. What is ironic is that they think they understand the meaning of the word "ironic" when in fact, the don't.
"obama is pushing apple hard for balance of trade numbers"
I have not seen this information anywhere. Is there a source for this? Please credit, would really like to see this.
Oh, it's probably one of those: "Everybody knows this, you stupid liberal" things. It was on Fox news so it must be true.
The Chinese have stolen a lot of tech from USA and some of it was handed to them by, cough, Clinton. They have zero military relations with the USA. They have been building their military at a cold war pace. They turn over North Korean escapees. They sell weapons to our enemies. They (disappear people), they imprison Christian missionaries. If you travel there you are escorted and followed around by secret police. They are some of the biggest polluters and do not care about the health and safety of their workers or people. Dumping hazardous waste that goes downstream killing thousands. Knocking down homes and stealing land without notice. If a worker is injured, they simply can no longer work and are kicked out of their housing and sent away.
It is nowhere near as bad as North Korea, but in many ways the same with simply more money.
Yeah, "Commie", I said it! I guess those who are sensitive forgot China's handling of free speech and the right to peaceably assemble in Tianamen Square!
What was the date on your picture? Things have moved on a bit I think.
Come on, even the party in China knows its days are numbered. The toothpaste is well out of the tube. They've gone too far down the capitalist/materialist path to ever turn back. You wanna see a new People's Revolution? Let them try putting the genie back in the bottle.
The party knows the best it can do is to prepare for some kind of soft transition to a real democracy of some kind. It's a new generation, Rot'n Apple.
Ochyming: Throw commie at Sweden, where the state IS actually a social state.
What's wrong with you? Sweden is not a "commie" state. I doubt you'r from Sweden or have even been there. I'm Swedish, Sweden might be more left then the US but commies I think not.
Apple building a TD-SCDMA iPhone for a Carrier with half a BILLION subscribers seems like a good idea , even if market penetration is only 10% that is 50 Million iphones working on TD-SCDMA networks... if TD-SCDMA were compatible with CDMA networks Verizon would have a shot at the iPhone, but it's not. How many subscribers does Verizon have? 93 million? at 10% again you get 9.3 millions phones not a big enough number to make a special phone... if apple has sold 60 million iphones and has the chance to sell a different model iphone that could easily sell another 50 that is a no- brainer, but to make a model that will only sell to 9 more units seems more trouble that it is worth...
Your points are valid but I think your percentages need to be adjusted. I don't think it's a stretch to think Verizon will have a much higher penetration of iPhone users than China Mobile. Since they about 550% more subs than Verizon, everything else being equal Verizon would have to sell 5.5x as many iPhones. Looking at China Unicom and AT&T, that may not be too hard for them to do; but all things aren't equal, so I think China Mobile has a shot.
While in the long term GSM/TD-SCDMA/TD-LTE might be bigger than CDMA/CDMA2000, in the short term it's likely a CDMA-based iPhone will sell more and faster to the few hundred thousand current users throughout the world.
Also, 9.3 Million of any CE is a big enough market to grab if you can grab it.