Nielson: Android flourished before iPhone 4, but Apple 'most desired'

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  • Reply 41 of 126
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post


    So Apple's new acquisitions drop by nearly a third from a high of 34% down to 23%, while Android's explodes 450%.



    Survey results can be twisted to make things look good for who ever you want to look good and you fell for it.



    I would like to see what these results do not show (the numbers they hide to make the story more interesting).



    Example1: The results only compare new acquisitions of an iPhone in the USA (23% of total USA iPhone sales) compared to new acquisitions of Android phones (nearly all Android Sales). They do not include any used iPhone activations from all those other 77% of iPhone customers who sold their used iPhone's and they do not include any second line activations of existing iPhone users. Comparing almost all Android purchases to about 23% of total USA iPhone sales just means that total Android sales have now reached 23% of USA only iPhone sales, it does not mean that Android is outselling iPhone, which is what this survey is trying to make you think is happening. 23% of USA iPhone sales is not a very big number compared to total world wide iPhone sales, Android is still very small.



    Example2: Stating that iphone sales have dropped because the percentage of total sales to new acquisitions went from 34% to 23% is also misleading. Just because you change percentages does not mean you reduce total sales, we need to see hard numbers not percentages to know what is really going on. iPhone had huge sales records the last 2 quarters. 23% of twice as many total sales is more than 34% of half as many previous sales. If you sell 1,000 Android phone one quarter then 2,000 Android phones the next month you have a 100% increase in sales. If you sell 8,000,000 iPhones one quarter then 9,000,000 iPhones the next quarter you have a 12.5% increase in sales. Which is more 1,000 or 1,000,000 in new sales. By looking at just the %'s it looks like 100% is more than 12.5%.
  • Reply 42 of 126
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    when roughly 25+ countries have all purchased the iPhone 4.



    another good point.. iPhone 4 just released in 17 new countries..
  • Reply 43 of 126
    tt92618tt92618 Posts: 444member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bartfat View Post


    I really doubt he's spinning the numbers this time. It almost looks like he's saying Android's winning the battle. But then again, you can read it any way you want, that doesn't necessarily mean that the author intended it to be read that way, though



    Apple has to confront two serious issues, and they must do so soon, if they are to effectively combat the onslaught of Android devices.



    1) They need to build out additional manufacturing capacity. Waits of 3 weeks will not work in a market where there are other devices running Android 2 (and soon 3) easily available from multiple carriers. It is too easy for consumers to simply walk away and purchase from another carrier, which brings up...



    2) Apple needs - NEEDS - to get out of the exclusivity deal with AT&T. This deal is going to kill market share for them in the US; it creates a competitive disadvantage for them that will only grow more severe as the market becomes crowded with higher-quality devices that erode the perceived gap between iPhone and Android handsets.



    I don't know if anyone realizes it or not, but Google is attempting a replay of the OS war fought between Apple and Microsoft. Its the same strategy, only this time in the mobile space. But all of the factors are the same: Apple has a tight ecosystem that integrates hardware and software, and they control the entire pie. Google manufactures the operating system, and provides it to hardware vendors that design and manufacture their own hardware variants. Just like last time, Google is banking on volume and incremental improvement, while Apple is banking on supremacy in design, technology, and quality. The question is, are we seeing a replay, or is this going to turn out to be an entirely different movie.
  • Reply 44 of 126
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tt92618 View Post


    Apple has to confront two serious issues, and they must do so soon, if they are to effectively combat the onslaught of Android devices.



    1) They need to build out additional manufacturing capacity. Waits of 3 weeks will not work in a market where there are other devices running Android 2 (and soon 3) easily available from multiple carriers. It is too easy for consumers to simply walk away and purchase from another carrier, which brings up...



    2) Apple needs - NEEDS - to get out of the exclusivity deal with AT&T. This deal is going to kill market share for them in the US; it creates a competitive disadvantage for them that will only grow more severe as the market becomes crowded with higher-quality devices that erode the perceived gap between iPhone and Android handsets.



    I don't know if anyone realizes it or not, but Google is attempting a replay of the OS war fought between Apple and Microsoft. Its the same strategy, only this time in the mobile space. But all of the factors are the same: Apple has a tight ecosystem that integrates hardware and software, and they control the entire pie. Goggle manufactures the operating system, and provides it to hardware vendors that design and manufacture their own hardware variants. Just like last time, Google is banking on volume and incremental improvement, while Apple is banking on supremacy in design, technology, and quality. The question is, are we seeing a replay, or is this going to turn out to be an entirely different movie.



    If they were fighting the same “battle” it would be to get their mobile OS on as many smartphones as possible, but since Apple is not nor will will not license any of their OS to any one else the only battle Apple is fighting is against other vendors and it’s for the only prize that matters: profit.



    And there are some key differences between MS and Google is this unbalanced “war” for OS supremacy that Apple isn’t even fighting in, is that Android is free, whereas Windows always had a cost associated with it. The fact that Android isn’t doing better in total OS marketshare concerns me more.
  • Reply 45 of 126
    coolcatcoolcat Posts: 156member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DrFreeman View Post


    Fun to read. Conclusion: Symbian is no longer that popular.



    What's Symbian?
  • Reply 46 of 126
    coolcatcoolcat Posts: 156member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by davesw View Post


    Verizon/Sprint/T-mobile users are buying iTouch's.



    Yeah? and the point here?
  • Reply 47 of 126
    tt92618tt92618 Posts: 444member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    If they were fighting the same ?battle? it would be to get their mobile OS on as many smartphones as possible, but since Apple is not nor will will not license any of their OS to any one else the only battle Apple is fighting is against other vendors and it?s for the only prize that matters: profit.



    I think you oversimplify the issue greatly. The 'bet' that M$ made last time around was that volume and incremental improvement would eventually create a critical mass that a single competing platform could not possibly counter. And as you may have noted, it absolutely worked out for them, and nearly destroyed Apple in the process. The only thing that saved Apple was SEVERE cutting and a return to a singular vision... and some very lucky hits in emerging markets. Honestly, iPod saved Apple, pure and simple. Had it not been for the breakout success of iPod and the iTunes store, Apple would still be an obscure market force today.



    Google is betting that the same lightning will strike twice, as is Apple.



    It astounds me when the argument is made that 'its all about profit' - the argument is myopic. If I operate a business where my product has a tremendous gross margin but I sell 100 units for each of my competitor's 1000, it does not matter that my margin is higher, because the economies of scale involved translate into higher operating profits for my competitor regardless. The more my competitor succeeds at outpacing me in sales, the more the pendulum swings in their favor, and as they gain greater and greater traction in the marketplace, even if my sales remain the same, I become a smaller and smaller player in a bigger and bigger market, until such time that I become an irrelevancy in the market as a whole. Apple HAS to avoid that.
  • Reply 48 of 126
    g3prog3pro Posts: 669member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bartfat View Post


    Nope, they're buying iPhones and unlocking them. Well, the T-Mobile users anyway.



    Do iPhones get 3g on T-Mobile? If not, I doubt anyone would want to do that.
  • Reply 49 of 126
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by axual View Post


    As usual, these types of analysts reports are meaningless drivel. First, Android has more sales channels. There are a finite number of people who buy new phones each year. Some of those people will buy the iPhone. Others will not. End of report.



    No, you left out the related news:



    All Japanese cars together outsell the Ford Focus.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by rorybalmer View Post


    Isn't Android an operating system where as iPhone is the actual phone? Can you really compare every device that has android to iPhone? I would assume you would compare android to iOS.. And motorola to apple.. Not Motorola, Nokia, HTC, etc. to Apple...



    That's like saying what's a more popular gum.. Juicy Fruit or any other gum that's mint flavored..



    Just seems like a pointless comparison.



    The comparison can't be made until you know the question.



    If the question involves which phone OS sells more, then the information as presented is useful.



    OTOH, if you're a developer wondering about potential market, you should be looking at all devices that run a given OS - that is, All Android devices vs iPhone + iPad + iPod Touch devices put together.



    If you're an investor, you're probably more concerned about profitability than numbers sold.



    And so on.
  • Reply 50 of 126
    shadashshadash Posts: 470member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    This is completely expected. In fact, this should have happened well over a year ago had Android and its vendors had their act together sooner. Anything that is freely distributed and is part of dozens of vendors should outsell a single platform from a single company.



    The iPod went up against multiple vendors and won. This might be part of the answer, but not all of it. The reality is, most general consumers don't care about the supposed openness of Android, the ideology of open source, etc. They want a phone on a network that works. That's why Android has been kicking ass on Verizon.



    Here's something from over the weekend about Verizon's future plans:

    "The 4G network should feel complete for most subscribers by 2012, as all major highways and cities within 30 miles should be covered by the LTE-based network; every 3G area in existence today will have 4G by 2013."

    http://www.electronista.com/articles...map.slips.out/



    Does anyone think AT&T will have 4G out by 2012-2013? I doubt AT&T will even have 3G to match Verizon's coverage by then. AT&T is an anchor around Apple's neck. As this article says, the iPhone is what everybody wants. AT&T isn't, so Apple loses out on millions of sales to the Droid, which is a far inferior phone on a great network. It is really too bad.
  • Reply 51 of 126
    coolcatcoolcat Posts: 156member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by geekdad View Post


    how do you figure that? What data did you base that on? Where did you come up with that number?



    Geez....settle down....
  • Reply 52 of 126
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by coolcat View Post


    What's Symbian?



    The world's best selling smartphone platform for the 9th year running? (truly the soccer of the smartphone market - popular everywhere but North America)





    I think that it was inevitable that Android would overtake iOS in terms of sales. It's got more manufacturers, more models, more carriers, more countries and more price-points. It can win without being anywhere near as polished as iOS.



    But who cares? Apple will continue to dominate the top end of the market in the same way in does the computer market. It'll always be the brand that most phone users aspire to owning. A billion phones are sold are year so there's enough room for multiple operating systems and manufacturers. Everybody wins.
  • Reply 53 of 126
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Garysturn View Post


    Survey results can be twisted to make things look good for who ever you want to look good and you fell for it.



    I would like to see what these results do not show (the numbers they hide to make the story more interesting).



    Example1: The results only compare new acquisitions of an iPhone in the USA (23% of total USA iPhone sales) compared to new acquisitions of Android phones (nearly all Android Sales). They do not include any used iPhone activations from all those other 77% of iPhone customers who sold their used iPhone's and they do not include any second line activations of existing iPhone users. Comparing almost all Android purchases to about 23% of total USA iPhone sales just means that total Android sales have now reached 23% of USA only iPhone sales, it does not mean that Android is outselling iPhone, which is what this survey is trying to make you think is happening. 23% of USA iPhone sales is not a very big number compared to total world wide iPhone sales, Android is still very small.



    Example2: Stating that iphone sales have dropped because the percentage of total sales to new acquisitions went from 34% to 23% is also misleading. Just because you change percentages does not mean you reduce total sales, we need to see hard numbers not percentages to know what is really going on. iPhone had huge sales records the last 2 quarters. 23% of twice as many total sales is more than 34% of half as many previous sales. If you sell 1,000 Android phone one quarter then 2,000 Android phones the next month you have a 100% increase in sales. If you sell 8,000,000 iPhones one quarter then 9,000,000 iPhones the next quarter you have a 12.5% increase in sales. Which is more 1,000 or 1,000,000 in new sales. By looking at just the %'s it looks like 100% is more than 12.5%.



    All true. But keep in mind that market share stats are snapshots of a given moment in time, while trends in rate of acquisition can help point to the future.



    So sure, even as Apple's rate of acquisition dropped a third, in absolute numbers at that one moment in time they were still higher than their competitors.



    But also note that Android's rate of acquisition increased during the same period, by an astounding 450%.



    You can find comfort in looking backwards toward the past if you prefer, or join Solipsism in boldly looking forward when he wrote here on June 6:



    "I expect Android to be much larger marketshare than iPhone after it matures."
  • Reply 54 of 126
    bcs123bcs123 Posts: 46member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL;


    The world's best selling smartphone platform for the 9th year running? (truly the soccer of the smartphone market - popular everywhere but North America)





    I think that it was inevitable that Android would overtake iOS in terms of sales. It's got more manufacturers, more models, more carriers, more countries and more price-points. It can win without being anywhere near as polished as iOS.



    But who cares? Apple will continue to dominate the top end of the market in the same way in does the computer market. It'll always be the brand that most phone users aspire to owning. A billion phones are sold are year so there's enough room for multiple operating systems and manufacturers. Everybody wins.



    Very rational and well put. Who says one company has to win out. The mobil space is not the pc space. This is not Microsoft vs apple anymore. There's lots of carriers, os's and manufactures involved. I predict a diverse market of lots of great phones for all sorts of preferences.
  • Reply 55 of 126
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tt92618 View Post


    I think you oversimplify the issue greatly. The 'bet' that M$ made last time around was that volume and incremental improvement would eventually create a critical mass that a single competing platform could not possibly counter. And as you may have noted, it absolutely worked out for them, and nearly destroyed Apple in the process. The only thing that saved Apple was SEVERE cutting and a return to a singular vision... and some very lucky hits in emerging markets. Honestly, iPod saved Apple, pure and simple. Had it not been for the breakout success of iPod and the iTunes store, Apple would still be an obscure market force.



    Your entire comment is not just over simplifying it by also myopic. You imply that making an OS for all vendors is the only viable method for business despite Apple proving otherwise. No other smartphone, tablet, PC or PMP vendor makes as profit as Apple and they?ve done it with tight control of the HW and OS.



    You can say that Windows and Android are shipped on more devices, but that means nothing to a company that makes its money from selling HW. That is the battle they are fighting. They are competing against others HW vendors not for some marketshare of an OS that would yield them less profit.



    BTW, Apple nearly destroyed themselves in the 90s from poor management, not because they failed to see the genius of marketing their Mac OS to any and all vendors.
  • Reply 56 of 126
    chopperchopper Posts: 246member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    The world's best selling smartphone platform for the 9th year running? (truly the soccer of the smartphone market - popular everywhere but North America)





    I think that it was inevitable that Android would overtake iOS in terms of sales. It's got more manufacturers, more models, more carriers, more countries and more price-points. It can win without being anywhere near as polished as iOS.



    But who cares? Apple will continue to dominate the top end of the market in the same way in does the computer market. It'll always be the brand that most phone users aspire to owning. A billion phones are sold are year so there's enough room for multiple operating systems and manufacturers. Everybody wins.



    Thoughtful and rational post in a thread full of logical and verbal gymnastics. Good job RichL.
  • Reply 57 of 126
    shadashshadash Posts: 470member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marktutone View Post


    I would like to see the real network traffic comparison..

    Are iphones accessing more network resources or is the android accessing more resources.

    There might be more purchases of other platforms but are those platforms really being used like the iphone.



    Here is part of the answer:

    "The study by Validas, a research firm that gathers data from phone bills, shows that Verizon subscribers who have smart phones (but not BlackBerrys) power through an average of 450MB per month, up more than double from last fall, before Verizon's Droid-branded Android line hit the market. In the same period, iPhone users averaged about 350MB of data consumption, while BlackBerry users across all carriers were averaging less than 50MB."

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38456202...ence-wireless/



    Android users seem to be using more data, but there are also far more iPhone users on AT&T (the article says up to 10 times), so there are caveats.



    The question is, will Verizon be hammered with overuse the way AT&T has? I doubt it. Would they have, had Verizon gotten the iPhone instead of AT&T in 2007? Maybe, but I doubt it would have been as bad as AT&T has been.
  • Reply 58 of 126
    shadashshadash Posts: 470member
    Apple made a similar "bet" with the iPod. From 2001, when the iPod was $400 for 5 GB, they cut prices and increased capacity every year. Doing this, they were able to outmaneuver the "Plays for Sure" partners and dominate the market. Even today, you can get an iPod Touch for less than half the (unsubsidized) price of an iPhone. I don't understand the thinking behind this, but it seems that Apple is protecting high margins on the iPhone and ignoring the lessons of Mac vs. Windows and iPod vs Plays for Sure.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tt92618 View Post


    I think you oversimplify the issue greatly. The 'bet' that M$ made last time around was that volume and incremental improvement would eventually create a critical mass that a single competing platform could not possibly counter. And as you may have noted, it absolutely worked out for them, and nearly destroyed Apple in the process. The only thing that saved Apple was SEVERE cutting and a return to a singular vision... and some very lucky hits in emerging markets. Honestly, iPod saved Apple, pure and simple. Had it not been for the breakout success of iPod and the iTunes store, Apple would still be an obscure market force today.



    Google is betting that the same lightning will strike twice, as is Apple.



    It astounds me when the argument is made that 'its all about profit' - the argument is myopic. If I operate a business where my product has a tremendous gross margin but I sell 100 units for each of my competitor's 1000, it does not matter that my margin is higher, because the economies of scale involved translate into higher operating profits for my competitor regardless. The more my competitor succeeds at outpacing me in sales, the more the pendulum swings in their favor, and as they gain greater and greater traction in the marketplace, even if my sales remain the same, I become a smaller and smaller player in a bigger and bigger market, until such time that I become an irrelevancy in the market as a whole. Apple HAS to avoid that.



  • Reply 59 of 126
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    You’re using common sense with a troll who only wants Apple to fail at all costs. He’ll take anything he can to show Apple sucks and nothing will make him think differently. He doesn’t care the variances in release schedules or that iOS is only on Apple’s products or that Neilsen isn’t counting another but smartphones. He only looks for a blemish he can spin into a weakness.



    I should know better...



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post


    I think the low- to no-tech market is where Apple is aiming their iPhone marketing message now. All the iPhone 4 TV spots are about FaceTime, and they all show how people can share moments in their lives. It's no longer what tasks your iPhone helps you accomplish, it's what emotions your iPhone helps you feel.



    This is exactly the opposite of the current Android ads. With uber-macho fake robot arms poking at Android devices, or 20-something males' eyes morphing into red HAL 9000 video cameras. Few if any of the Android ads have any connection to users' humanity.



    Yes, Apple is aiming there because that is Apple's demographic. They don't need to target tech users and Apple users because we already know more about the thing than Apple could ever hope to convey in ten-thousand commercials. Also, Apple does very well with this audience due to the simplicity of their platform. Apple's mom-and-pop users actually download apps. Note that this is not an anomaly, and it should not surprise people that the app store is a chief target of Apple in advertisement: it familiarizes everyone with the app store, which in turn results in app store sales, in turn resulting in a more profitable app store, more apps, a better and more inviting platform.



    On the flip-side, Android, to the mom-and-pop user, is a generic smartphone. They aren't familiar with the Android brand and they likely purchased it based on specifications in an effort to save money over the iPhone, or because it happened to be the nicest looking phone where they went to buy. Unfortunately the complexities are generally lost on them, and Android does not have a strong enough brand to market even if a company wanted to. Android, as a brand, is only truly relevant in the tech sector. There is one strong brand among Android phones, and that is Droid, as you mentioned, but Verizon has chosen to market Droid against the tech community which contains a sub-community that is eager for the tinker-ready fully-customizable Android platform. Unfortunately I don't see how this ends well for Android in terms of strengthening the Android market, which is still leaps and bounds behind the iOS market.



    Apple's advertising motivation is clear: they know exactly who their biggest customers are and they're hitting home runs again and again with their advertisements to this demographic (which, I should note, is virtually never us). The Droid campaign has been great, but I would criticize its exclusion of the general phone user, who the Droid commercials don't really appeal to. Has there been any other sort of successful advertising campaign in the Android world? I'm trying to think of one.
  • Reply 60 of 126
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,191member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by diddy View Post


    Except that had nothing to do with a civil lawsuit.



    Yes, of course you're right. Early morning misstatement on my part.... need coffee.
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