I think that Gruber's arguments still stands. A new release for a consumer product in September makes sense.
As for the retina displays - it looks like they were testing them in cupertino ( as per the iBooks iPad icon) and so the reason we dont have it is yield. why wait a year? If Apple are spending money on components they need to get their money's worth. Next year is a aeon away. Competitors, by their multi-manufacturing nature - will be producing a lot more in the next year.
Sept 2011. year of the iPad 2 HD.
( if it is just a screen change then the version does not have to change)
remember - the iPAd 2 HD does not need any other additions - no gps, no increased RAM, no NFC, no other stuff which could go into 3. Just needs a screen.
This is hardly surprising. I've always said that the fall iPad3 rumors were completely stupid and came from ignorant minded people. Apple doesn't operate that way, and only a clueless person would even suggest such a dumb thing.
The iPad2 will still be selling a lot around Christmas. .... Apple will be selling millions and millions of iPads, while a bunch of clueless people will continue to make dumb predictions and suggestions. These "experts" and "analysts" should offer their great advice to Apple's competitors instead, because they're the ones who could use it.
The competitors "could use" bad advice? Ohh-kay. But they seem to have had plenty already.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike11
I second that. There's no reason why Apple couldn't introduce an iPad 2 S/HD/Pro/4G/etc. in September or Q4 2011.
Quote:
Originally Posted by StrangeThingInTheLand
I vote with this. Nothing wrong with releasing an ipad 2 HD (or ipad 2 4g, though I think that's more of a stretch) and it's still the year of the ipad 2. They don't replace the ipad 2, they just grow the product line, and maybe have a price drop on the ipad 2 that would further squeeze competitors. Not saying one way or the other, but simply that it's a stretch to say there won't be an HD model prior to one year from now, based only on what was emphasized today.
An iOS 5 release (P>50%) (or at least 4.5) (P>85%) would do quite nicely to "upgrade" the iPad2 and again leapfrog over Android et al. in the fall without changing component one.
Which is not to wholly rule out other pre-emptive strikes like adding LTE (P<50%) or an iPad Pro (P<33%), but I read two full pages of posts and no one had mentioned the OS upgrade factor.
And, think about it, that does make for a feasible "cycle" which updates the iPad twice a year, even it's one hardware and one software iteration (to extend its "newness") about six months apart. And gives the tablet its spring showcase and with the summer for the phones and fall for the Pods, and ATV's (and other staggered releases for iMacs, MBP's, Airs, etc.). Sounds like a good biz strategy to me.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bevelmon
If there is any surprise hardware in the fall other than iPods Including a new 5-6" iPod it will be an Apple TV, a real TV not a set top box. If you're thinking anything else you're not paying attention!
Probably not. The current Apple TV works with all TV's and has plenty of maturation left to do. Q is whether it'll be a bump or the true next gen, 'cos it's gettin' due either way. About time with all the pieces in the ecosystem growing in sophistication and converging functions. (P>75%).
Apple may make a TV someday, but I think they have plenty of gas left in iDevices and there's so much unsettled in the TV biz these days (e.g., 3D and if so what 3D, what the content providers are going to make available thru the net and thru companies like Apple, all kinds of fragmented net widgets on sets, etc.), plus the issue of getting enough shelf space to sell something as big as 50" TVs. iPads are going to be at Verizon and AT&T stores, Apple Stores, Best Buy, Wal-Mart, the Shack and I read yesterday, maybe at places like Bed, Bath and Beyond. (I wouldn't kid about that.) A premium priced Apple Television (like 2 or 1 models to start) would have trouble standing out in a superstore TV section of set after set after set afer.... And what would a "true Apple TV" do that a Samsung connected to an ATV box wouldn't?? And why would Apple not want to provide a competitive experience on every HDTV in the land (with all the other "add-a-box" solutions - some of which do useful things Apple TV doesn't - building up some steam)? (2011 P<33%)
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
I don't see a single one of you guys giving even one really good reason why Apple SHOULD come out with a new model in September. All you're doing is saying that you don't see why they couldn't, which is a waste of time. A double negative is not a positive.
Uhhh, I agree with most of your posts, but to answer your question, if they were to release a larger, likely gaming-centric Touch, how about to make a boat load of money eating the lunch of the handheld gaming guys like Nintendo and Sony with a Mega Touch (which will be also used for serious apps by those who don't want to carry/can't afford an iPad)? And because there's a hole or two in their SKU lineup at the $349 and $399 prince points? And Apple hates a vacuum like that. Will that do?
(I realize there are issues of how many units they'd project selling, how they'd handle resolution, since a tweener device is either gonna have much bigger pixels (not the "retina way"), or iPad level res with tiny ones, or iOS5 is going to leap to true res independence in 2011 (P<25%) or every developer has a new "tweener res" to write for (P<10%). So, maybe not. But then people above virtually all our pay grades are puzzling the details of things like this out, so whadda I know.....
PS: The new thing - if there's a new thing - doesn't have to be a bigger screen iPod touch, or gaming optimized for that matter, e.g., maybe a Touch with the same screen size as the iPhone 5 (if it increases) - in a shell the size (or close to it) of the iP5 - utilizing all the space taken up by phone components to create an iDevice optimized for better photography that would really replace a lot of the P&S's people still carry in addition to their iPhones. My wish list would include: 8MP, HDR, 1080p, internal optical zoom, flash and video light functions and better apps to manage 'em... ...and I'd take an extra 2-3mm of depth to get 'em..... ...or???.... ...'jus sayin' there's plenty of market space left for iD's to conquer. Cams must be a big market 'cos so many companies are in it. And if people could have everything the Touch already offers in a cam with a few Appleseque cam tricks of its own at the above price points I'd say it'd be a big hit.....
Gruber tends to not just simply say things like this. Even if he says he's just saying them, there's usually more to it than that. Yes, he says it's a guess, but his guesses are practically always informed ones.
Except that he recently wrote a whole bit about when he says it's a guess it really is just a guess, so I think we can take it that this really was a guess from him.
I think this iPad 2 will be a monster hit rather than a modest hit if it appears likely that no 'iPad 3' will be forthcoming later in the year. Or, the 'iPad 3 could indeed come along late in 2011 and Apple then dubs it 'iPad Pro.' That way, the iPad 2 can co-exist alongside the 'new' one in much the same way that the white MacBook coexisted alongside the MacBook Pro line.
A marketing slogan means nothing. And apple constantly is dishonest about future plans.
This article is totally misguided, there's nothing stopping Apple from refreshing before the holidays - only a handful of fanboys would remember a slogan from months earlier.
and operating system which is full generation behind Honeycomb, 2011 will be a year of Android tablets.
Lol. iOS 4.3 is about 4 generations of what is, clearly, a beta version of a tablet OS. So full featured it can handle garage band etc.
These Android comparison charts tend to use this trick.
1) Add some nonsense some Android tablet has ( 3D) - by which I take it they mean stereoscope. Hahaha. Nobody cares. Thats a gimmick. If they mean normal 3D - um, OpenGL?
2) Never have a row for the unique iOS stuff - has Garageband, Can Edit movies etc.
3) Number of apps? I missed that row?
4) Hardware acceleration? Missed that.
Even then the iPAd wins on price, and other rows they couldnt leave out.
The game changer DED was predicting was Retina Display. I am actually relieved he was wrong about that. It would make me a little crazy knowing the iPad had more pixels than my iMac! I don't expect the iPad to exceed 1080p for at least a few years.
looking at all the posts still clinging to the notion Apple "could" release a 3 or 2.5 hardware version of the iPad this Fall (beyond its likely iOS 5 update with some new software features and a possible Verizon 4G edition), despite the seemingly-definitive "2011 is the Year of iPad 2" statement and theme of yesterday's event the AI article was premised on, i just have to say one thing:
you're clutching at straws. really.
the Fall is the annual update time for the iPods (including Apple TV in Apple's categories). aiming at the big Holiday market obviously. there are two much rumored important new potential products in that group that Apple might launch then to fill out its product line and capture new market segments, but not compete with its own existing products:
- a larger iPod touch with 5"-6" screen, still running the iPhone version of iOS, not the iPad version.
- an iPhone Nano - more of a featurephone than a smartphone - that does not run the iPhone OS but is more like the much simpler iPod Nano with a very basic version of iOS.
these products are plausible because these are potentially significant big-sales market segments where Apple does not have anything to offer right now (the global featurephone market is huge). which you cannot say about an iPad 3.
speculation is fun (anything "could" happen!). but to make sense Apple-wise, major new products have to make real, logical market strategic sense - and not compete with each other for market attention due to their timing. "competing with Android" is not strategic thinking, that is tactical (like say, adding widgets and better notifications to iOS 5). so for iPad 3, wait til next year.
It's not that I doubt it. I think it's very unlikely theyll release another this year, in fact.
However, nothing that was said today precludes the release of another. The article did a poor job of proving that it did. It stated in no uncertain terms that the statement that "2011: Year of the iPad 2" "kills" any rumors. And it offers no proof besides saying "Jobs wouldn't have said that were he planning to introduce another iPad model this summer," a statement that was not substantiated in any way. It's simply the authors opinion presented as indisputable fact.
Despite the fact that I agree with him, it's still a poor piece of writing. Journalists are welcome to opine, but only when presented as such.
Well, I'm not always happy to see the rushed out articles in various sites that we get about new products. There are many more reasons for this not to happen, than there are for it to happen. One thing I didn't mention in my post was that Apple is spread thin in developers and possibly, engineers. We all remember that 10.5 came out late because they needed some of those people to finish the iPhone software on time. Having more products coming out at once would stretch this even further. I just don't see enough of an advantage to offset the disadvantages.
The only way I could see this as having any chance at all is if Apple sees its lead being whittled down too rapidly, and they think they need something then to counter it. But that seems unlikely.
It would not appreciably shrink sales this quarter if it is not announced beforehand.
What? Look at what Apple is doing now. They are giving everyone back $100 if they bought an iPad in the past two weeks, or the opportunity to trade it in for a new iPad 2. And that's when people knew it was coming out now!
With all the talk about September, and the lack of security at Apple's suppliers, it would be known, and reported upon pretty widely that Apple was coming out with a new one.
And do you really think that Apple would just slip this one out? No way! They would have another show.
But, a new model would suppress all the sales boost they get now from it coming out in March or April. It could be a wash. If so, then what would be the point, with all the problems it would cause for them?
The reason would be to completely knock the wind out of the competition. The only point in doing it would be to deliver a Retina Display - something so profoundly obvious that its absence in competitors products would make an iPad "the only choice".
I don't necessarily see this as aligning the iPad announcement with iPods. Instead, I see them delivering a premium device with a hi-def display this fall which gets pushed down to other models during the next spring refresh.
Since you've been in manufacturing, you can understand the advantage of having an extra few months to get yields up in a standard production run where demand could be tempered by a higher selling price.
That's not much of a reason. They would do that in March as well.
I also don't understand why Apple would want to bifurcate their product line with a "pro" model. I think that's a terrible idea! One major Advantage over Android is the lack, pretty much, of differing resolutions in current models, and you want Apple to do just that?
Ramp up can take place for March even better, as it's a slower time.
To crush the competition, to introduce a high-end/higher-margin "Pro" model (and as Jobs mentioned, only one of the six iPad 2 SKUs is more expensive than the competition), to shift the yearly release cycle closer to the holiday season, etc.
None of those are even reasons, much less good ones.
Apple has made it very clear, and they did so again this time, that they are NOT going to be in the business of coming out with premium priced tablets. VERY clear. So, forget that.
They can crush the competition as well in March as in September.
There's no good reason to move to the holiday season. The iPad will sell well there anyway.
There are far more reasons for this not to be done than to be done, as I've written about in other posts. They supersede the minor reasons it might be done.
Comments
Bullshit.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - look at what Apple does, don't listen to what they say.
"In March we told you 2011 would be the year of iPad 2, and it is, but we're starting 2012 early." - September 2011
I can so see Steve saying that.
F*ing brilliant point mate. That's *exactly* how he would say it.
As for the retina displays - it looks like they were testing them in cupertino ( as per the iBooks iPad icon) and so the reason we dont have it is yield. why wait a year? If Apple are spending money on components they need to get their money's worth. Next year is a aeon away. Competitors, by their multi-manufacturing nature - will be producing a lot more in the next year.
Sept 2011. year of the iPad 2 HD.
( if it is just a screen change then the version does not have to change)
This is hardly surprising. I've always said that the fall iPad3 rumors were completely stupid and came from ignorant minded people. Apple doesn't operate that way, and only a clueless person would even suggest such a dumb thing.
The iPad2 will still be selling a lot around Christmas. .... Apple will be selling millions and millions of iPads, while a bunch of clueless people will continue to make dumb predictions and suggestions. These "experts" and "analysts" should offer their great advice to Apple's competitors instead, because they're the ones who could use it.
The competitors "could use" bad advice? Ohh-kay. But they seem to have had plenty already.
I second that. There's no reason why Apple couldn't introduce an iPad 2 S/HD/Pro/4G/etc. in September or Q4 2011.
I vote with this. Nothing wrong with releasing an ipad 2 HD (or ipad 2 4g, though I think that's more of a stretch) and it's still the year of the ipad 2. They don't replace the ipad 2, they just grow the product line, and maybe have a price drop on the ipad 2 that would further squeeze competitors. Not saying one way or the other, but simply that it's a stretch to say there won't be an HD model prior to one year from now, based only on what was emphasized today.
An iOS 5 release (P>50%) (or at least 4.5) (P>85%) would do quite nicely to "upgrade" the iPad2 and again leapfrog over Android et al. in the fall without changing component one.
Which is not to wholly rule out other pre-emptive strikes like adding LTE (P<50%) or an iPad Pro (P<33%), but I read two full pages of posts and no one had mentioned the OS upgrade factor.
And, think about it, that does make for a feasible "cycle" which updates the iPad twice a year, even it's one hardware and one software iteration (to extend its "newness") about six months apart. And gives the tablet its spring showcase and with the summer for the phones and fall for the Pods, and ATV's (and other staggered releases for iMacs, MBP's, Airs, etc.). Sounds like a good biz strategy to me.....
If there is any surprise hardware in the fall other than iPods Including a new 5-6" iPod it will be an Apple TV, a real TV not a set top box. If you're thinking anything else you're not paying attention!
Probably not. The current Apple TV works with all TV's and has plenty of maturation left to do. Q is whether it'll be a bump or the true next gen, 'cos it's gettin' due either way. About time with all the pieces in the ecosystem growing in sophistication and converging functions. (P>75%).
Apple may make a TV someday, but I think they have plenty of gas left in iDevices and there's so much unsettled in the TV biz these days (e.g., 3D and if so what 3D, what the content providers are going to make available thru the net and thru companies like Apple, all kinds of fragmented net widgets on sets, etc.), plus the issue of getting enough shelf space to sell something as big as 50" TVs. iPads are going to be at Verizon and AT&T stores, Apple Stores, Best Buy, Wal-Mart, the Shack and I read yesterday, maybe at places like Bed, Bath and Beyond. (I wouldn't kid about that.) A premium priced Apple Television (like 2 or 1 models to start) would have trouble standing out in a superstore TV section of set after set after set afer.... And what would a "true Apple TV" do that a Samsung connected to an ATV box wouldn't?? And why would Apple not want to provide a competitive experience on every HDTV in the land (with all the other "add-a-box" solutions - some of which do useful things Apple TV doesn't - building up some steam)? (2011 P<33%)
I don't see a single one of you guys giving even one really good reason why Apple SHOULD come out with a new model in September. All you're doing is saying that you don't see why they couldn't, which is a waste of time. A double negative is not a positive.
Uhhh, I agree with most of your posts, but to answer your question, if they were to release a larger, likely gaming-centric Touch, how about to make a boat load of money eating the lunch of the handheld gaming guys like Nintendo and Sony with a Mega Touch (which will be also used for serious apps by those who don't want to carry/can't afford an iPad)? And because there's a hole or two in their SKU lineup at the $349 and $399 prince points? And Apple hates a vacuum like that. Will that do?
(I realize there are issues of how many units they'd project selling, how they'd handle resolution, since a tweener device is either gonna have much bigger pixels (not the "retina way"), or iPad level res with tiny ones, or iOS5 is going to leap to true res independence in 2011 (P<25%) or every developer has a new "tweener res" to write for (P<10%). So, maybe not. But then people above virtually all our pay grades are puzzling the details of things like this out, so whadda I know.....
PS: The new thing - if there's a new thing - doesn't have to be a bigger screen iPod touch, or gaming optimized for that matter, e.g., maybe a Touch with the same screen size as the iPhone 5 (if it increases) - in a shell the size (or close to it) of the iP5 - utilizing all the space taken up by phone components to create an iDevice optimized for better photography that would really replace a lot of the P&S's people still carry in addition to their iPhones. My wish list would include: 8MP, HDR, 1080p, internal optical zoom, flash and video light functions and better apps to manage 'em... ...and I'd take an extra 2-3mm of depth to get 'em..... ...or???.... ...'jus sayin' there's plenty of market space left for iD's to conquer. Cams must be a big market 'cos so many companies are in it. And if people could have everything the Touch already offers in a cam with a few Appleseque cam tricks of its own at the above price points I'd say it'd be a big hit.....
Gruber tends to not just simply say things like this. Even if he says he's just saying them, there's usually more to it than that. Yes, he says it's a guess, but his guesses are practically always informed ones.
Except that he recently wrote a whole bit about when he says it's a guess it really is just a guess, so I think we can take it that this really was a guess from him.
Yeah, you came in to post.
He did say, "after one post," so clearly the comment was self referential. As Harry Callahan said, "A man's got to know his limitations."
This article is totally misguided, there's nothing stopping Apple from refreshing before the holidays - only a handful of fanboys would remember a slogan from months earlier.
http://www.droid-life.com/wp-content...galaxy-tab.png
and operating system which is full generation behind Honeycomb, 2011 will be a year of Android tablets.
Looking at the unimpressive iPad 2 specs:
http://www.droid-life.com/wp-content...galaxy-tab.png
and operating system which is full generation behind Honeycomb, 2011 will be a year of Android tablets.
Hello, spec whore. And I say that with absolutely no derogatory connotation; you have my word. I'm a spec whore for some products, as well.
Apple doesn't care. Nor will the millions of people who will buy the iPad 2. If the past decade and a half hasn't taught you anything, I'll sum it up:
It's not about the specs. It's about the experience.
Looking at the unimpressive iPad 2 specs:
http://www.droid-life.com/wp-content...galaxy-tab.png
and operating system which is full generation behind Honeycomb, 2011 will be a year of Android tablets.
Lol. iOS 4.3 is about 4 generations of what is, clearly, a beta version of a tablet OS. So full featured it can handle garage band etc.
These Android comparison charts tend to use this trick.
1) Add some nonsense some Android tablet has ( 3D) - by which I take it they mean stereoscope. Hahaha. Nobody cares. Thats a gimmick. If they mean normal 3D - um, OpenGL?
2) Never have a row for the unique iOS stuff - has Garageband, Can Edit movies etc.
3) Number of apps? I missed that row?
4) Hardware acceleration? Missed that.
Even then the iPAd wins on price, and other rows they couldnt leave out.
Hello, spec whore. And I say that with absolutely no derogatory connotation; you have my word. I'm a spec whore for some products, as well.
Apple doesn't care. Nor will the millions of people who will buy the iPad 2. If the past decade and a half hasn't taught you anything, I'll sum it up:
It's not about the specs. It's about the experience.
The specs were suspect anyway.
DED is right this time
The game changer DED was predicting was Retina Display. I am actually relieved he was wrong about that. It would make me a little crazy knowing the iPad had more pixels than my iMac! I don't expect the iPad to exceed 1080p for at least a few years.
you're clutching at straws. really.
the Fall is the annual update time for the iPods (including Apple TV in Apple's categories). aiming at the big Holiday market obviously. there are two much rumored important new potential products in that group that Apple might launch then to fill out its product line and capture new market segments, but not compete with its own existing products:
- a larger iPod touch with 5"-6" screen, still running the iPhone version of iOS, not the iPad version.
- an iPhone Nano - more of a featurephone than a smartphone - that does not run the iPhone OS but is more like the much simpler iPod Nano with a very basic version of iOS.
these products are plausible because these are potentially significant big-sales market segments where Apple does not have anything to offer right now (the global featurephone market is huge). which you cannot say about an iPad 3.
speculation is fun (anything "could" happen!). but to make sense Apple-wise, major new products have to make real, logical market strategic sense - and not compete with each other for market attention due to their timing. "competing with Android" is not strategic thinking, that is tactical (like say, adding widgets and better notifications to iOS 5). so for iPad 3, wait til next year.
It's not that I doubt it. I think it's very unlikely theyll release another this year, in fact.
However, nothing that was said today precludes the release of another. The article did a poor job of proving that it did. It stated in no uncertain terms that the statement that "2011: Year of the iPad 2" "kills" any rumors. And it offers no proof besides saying "Jobs wouldn't have said that were he planning to introduce another iPad model this summer," a statement that was not substantiated in any way. It's simply the authors opinion presented as indisputable fact.
Despite the fact that I agree with him, it's still a poor piece of writing. Journalists are welcome to opine, but only when presented as such.
Well, I'm not always happy to see the rushed out articles in various sites that we get about new products. There are many more reasons for this not to happen, than there are for it to happen. One thing I didn't mention in my post was that Apple is spread thin in developers and possibly, engineers. We all remember that 10.5 came out late because they needed some of those people to finish the iPhone software on time. Having more products coming out at once would stretch this even further. I just don't see enough of an advantage to offset the disadvantages.
The only way I could see this as having any chance at all is if Apple sees its lead being whittled down too rapidly, and they think they need something then to counter it. But that seems unlikely.
It would not appreciably shrink sales this quarter if it is not announced beforehand.
What? Look at what Apple is doing now. They are giving everyone back $100 if they bought an iPad in the past two weeks, or the opportunity to trade it in for a new iPad 2. And that's when people knew it was coming out now!
With all the talk about September, and the lack of security at Apple's suppliers, it would be known, and reported upon pretty widely that Apple was coming out with a new one.
And do you really think that Apple would just slip this one out? No way! They would have another show.
But, a new model would suppress all the sales boost they get now from it coming out in March or April. It could be a wash. If so, then what would be the point, with all the problems it would cause for them?
The reason would be to completely knock the wind out of the competition. The only point in doing it would be to deliver a Retina Display - something so profoundly obvious that its absence in competitors products would make an iPad "the only choice".
I don't necessarily see this as aligning the iPad announcement with iPods. Instead, I see them delivering a premium device with a hi-def display this fall which gets pushed down to other models during the next spring refresh.
Since you've been in manufacturing, you can understand the advantage of having an extra few months to get yields up in a standard production run where demand could be tempered by a higher selling price.
That's not much of a reason. They would do that in March as well.
I also don't understand why Apple would want to bifurcate their product line with a "pro" model. I think that's a terrible idea! One major Advantage over Android is the lack, pretty much, of differing resolutions in current models, and you want Apple to do just that?
Ramp up can take place for March even better, as it's a slower time.
Also don't get why 2011 being "Year of iPad 2" means there won't be a premium version of iPad 2 in 2011.
I don't see why it would. The fact that you want it to be, doesn't influence anything.
To crush the competition, to introduce a high-end/higher-margin "Pro" model (and as Jobs mentioned, only one of the six iPad 2 SKUs is more expensive than the competition), to shift the yearly release cycle closer to the holiday season, etc.
None of those are even reasons, much less good ones.
Apple has made it very clear, and they did so again this time, that they are NOT going to be in the business of coming out with premium priced tablets. VERY clear. So, forget that.
They can crush the competition as well in March as in September.
There's no good reason to move to the holiday season. The iPad will sell well there anyway.
There are far more reasons for this not to be done than to be done, as I've written about in other posts. They supersede the minor reasons it might be done.