I think that Gruber's arguments still stands. A new release for a consumer product in September makes sense.
As for the retina displays - it looks like they were testing them in cupertino ( as per the iBooks iPad icon) and so the reason we dont have it is yield. why wait a year? If Apple are spending money on components they need to get their money's worth. Next year is a aeon away. Competitors, by their multi-manufacturing nature - will be producing a lot more in the next year.
Sept 2011. year of the iPad 2 HD.
( if it is just a screen change then the version does not have to change)
Of course the version would have to change. You're talking about a lot of engineering and software work to be done. They can't just replace the screen!
This is four times the pixels, performance would suffer greatly if they just replaced the screen. They would need a more powerful CPU to feed the gpu, which would need a hefty upgrade (it would need to be four times as powerful to keep up with the increased Rez).
They would have to increase the RAM.
Then the software and pictures need to be upgraded. Battery life would suffer without a newer battery and efficiency increases.
What do you think this is, a children's toy?
And all of this is going to be done in the next six months?
remember - the iPAd 2 HD does not need any other additions - no gps, no increased RAM, no NFC, no other stuff which could go into 3. Just needs a screen.
Uhhh, I agree with most of your posts, but to answer your question, if they were to release a larger, likely gaming-centric Touch, how about to make a boat load of money eating the lunch of the handheld gaming guys like Nintendo and Sony with a Mega Touch (which will be also used for serious apps by those who don't want to carry/can't afford an iPad)? And because there's a hole or two in their SKU lineup at the $349 and $399 prince points? And Apple hates a vacuum like that. Will that do?
(I realize there are issues of how many units they'd project selling, how they'd handle resolution, since a tweener device is either gonna have much bigger pixels (not the "retina way"), or iPad level res with tiny ones, or iOS5 is going to leap to true res independence in 2011 (P<25%) or every developer has a new "tweener res" to write for (P<10%). So, maybe not. But then people above virtually all our pay grades are puzzling the details of things like this out, so whadda I know.....
PS: The new thing - if there's a new thing - doesn't have to be a bigger screen iPod touch, or gaming optimized for that matter, e.g., maybe a Touch with the same screen size as the iPhone 5 (if it increases) - in a shell the size (or close to it) of the iP5 - utilizing all the space taken up by phone components to create an iDevice optimized for better photography that would really replace a lot of the P&S's people still carry in addition to their iPhones. My wish list would include: 8MP, HDR, 1080p, internal optical zoom, flash and video light functions and better apps to manage 'em... ...and I'd take an extra 2-3mm of depth to get 'em..... ...or???.... ...'jus sayin' there's plenty of market space left for iD's to conquer. Cams must be a big market 'cos so many companies are in it. And if people could have everything the Touch already offers in a cam with a few Appleseque cam tricks of its own at the above price points I'd say it'd be a big hit.....
We read a rumor in one place, and all of a sudden, people all over are giving crazy reasons why it will come true. I don't believe any of these current ones.
Gruber said that his idea was just that. He had no word from anyone that it would come true, and he was just expressing some reasons why he though it might be a good idea. But it isn't. While Gruber knows something about the market and Apple, he doesn't know anything about manufacturing or marketing. And those are more complex than most people think. That's why there are so many failed products.
Remember both Jobs and Cook have stated recently that they are most proud of the products they refused to do. That's a very important point that's being ignored here.
Well, I'm not always happy to see the rushed out articles in various sites that we get about new products. There are many more reasons for this not to happen, than there are for it to happen.
I'm having difficulty discerning your point. Are you defending the author based on the basis of there being worse examples of journalism out there?
I wonder how soon the first Class action will descend if they release a 3rd iPad iteration in 2011...Could be a costly marketing boob.
Class action suit on what basis?
But if Apple needed some wiggle room they could correctly claim that their fiscal year ends 9/2011 and could announce in October - the first month of the 2012 fiscal year.
A marketing slogan means nothing. And apple constantly is dishonest about future plans.
This article is totally misguided, there's nothing stopping Apple from refreshing before the holidays - only a handful of fanboys would remember a slogan from months earlier.
Any company with any smarts peddles what they have, not what they will have.
Well, I'm not always happy to see the rushed out articles in various sites that we get about new products. There are many more reasons for this not to happen, than there are for it to happen. One thing I didn't mention in my post was that Apple is spread thin in developers and possibly, engineers. We all remember that 10.5 came out late because they needed some of those people to finish the iPhone software on time. Having more products coming out at once would stretch this even further. I just don't see enough of an advantage to offset the disadvantages.
The only way I could see this as having any chance at all is if Apple sees its lead being whittled down too rapidly, and they think they need something then to counter it. But that seems unlikely.
I think that Apple wants the iPad to be like the iPod rather than the iPhone in terms of its marketshare. I think they are prepared to move quickly to protect their lead in this space and, depending on cost and availability, will make a decision this summer.
remember - the iPAd 2 HD does not need any other additions - no gps, no increased RAM, no NFC, no other stuff which could go into 3. Just needs a screen.
They would need more RAM to accommodate a frame buffer four times larger and would probably want a more powerful GPU as well (although the current GPU could have been selected with the idea of a Retina Display in mind).
That's not much of a reason. They would do that in March as well.
I also don't understand why Apple would want to bifurcate their product line with a "pro" model. I think that's a terrible idea! One major Advantage over Android is the lack, pretty much, of differing resolutions in current models, and you want Apple to do just that?
Ramp up can take place for March even better, as it's a slower time.
A retina display model at twice the resolution would not be a huge "fragmentation" - this is what they did for the iPhone 4 and it worked fine. The developers would need to rework their graphical elements to optimize for the new screen but things would still work pretty well.
I will lay this out a slightly different way.
I believe that all the engineering for a Retina Display iPad has already been done because I think that is what Apple hoped to ship this release. Due to cost and production yields of the display, they were forced into Plan B.
I think that the rumors of production delays were incorrectly reported at a much later date and may have had something to do with the display yields.
It seems to me that production orders for the iPads went in late. They are supposed to have 400-600k units for the US launch which seems light, especially considering they are launching in 25 countries 2 weeks later. Maybe they are holding back a half million units for the second launch but it sounds like they will be well behind demand for some time.
You may be right that a adding another iPad is not in the cards this year, but I think Apple will look at the competition (whatever that might be) and make a decision this summer (assuming they can get decent display yields). They would introduce a new model atop the current line at a higher price and then work the higher-res display throughout the lineup next spring. I am certainly not willing to bet this would happen but I also think that Apple is prepared to respond quickly to any perceived threat of their market position.
People are crazy if they want to hold out for IPAD 3. The IPAD will retain its resale value but you must sell it before they introduce IPAD 3. My brorther sold his ipad v1 for 450 after 1 year. BUY IT NOW sell it one year later!
... They are in the business of selling hardware. Android is set to fail face-first in the mud because of it... Bunch of hypocrites that should be fired on the spot for having such a narrow field of vision....
Android set to fail? Based on what market metric? I guess if one has a "narrow field of vision" (and should be fired?).
I love Apple products... but the blind, almost rabid fanboism of many (actually my new term is "Apple Fundementalism" for those beyond fanboy... I'd consider myself a fanboy, but like many still have a rational view of the world).
We read a rumor in one place, and all of a sudden, people all over are giving crazy reasons why it will come true. I don't believe any of these current ones.
Gruber said that his idea was just that. He had no word from anyone that it would come true, and he was just expressing some reasons why he though it might be a good idea. But it isn't. While Gruber knows something about the market and Apple, he doesn't know anything about manufacturing or marketing. And those are more complex than most people think. That's why there are so many failed products.
Remember both Jobs and Cook have stated recently that they are most proud of the products they refused to do. That's a very important point that's being ignored here.
I in no way feel that a true iPad 3 is coming in the fall (I leave upgrades to iOS as the "mid-life-refesh" of the iPad2), but equally, I don't believe Apple's exploited all they can do with the iPod line, based in extending some of the capabilities of the Touch to enter (or create) new markets. And a more gaming-centric iPod or a more photography/video-centric one would be two ways to evolve the iPod line. Which hasn't had a real new model (I consider the new Nano a "sidegrade" at best and not a new "model" in any case) in a few years.
I'm having difficulty discerning your point. Are you defending the author based on the basis of there being worse examples of journalism out there?
No. I'm saying that there are a lot of articles that come out rapidly after an event to get the views, including this one, that are not researched as carefully as they should be, because speed is the most important thing they are caring about.
I think that Apple wants the iPad to be like the iPod rather than the iPhone in terms of its marketshare. I think they are prepared to move quickly to protect their lead in this space and, depending on cost and availability, will make a decision this summer.
A retina display model at twice the resolution would not be a huge "fragmentation" - this is what they did for the iPhone 4 and it worked fine. The developers would need to rework their graphical elements to optimize for the new screen but things would still work pretty well.
I will lay this out a slightly different way.
I believe that all the engineering for a Retina Display iPad has already been done because I think that is what Apple hoped to ship this release. Due to cost and production yields of the display, they were forced into Plan B.
I think that the rumors of production delays were incorrectly reported at a much later date and may have had something to do with the display yields.
It seems to me that production orders for the iPads went in late. They are supposed to have 400-600k units for the US launch which seems light, especially considering they are launching in 25 countries 2 weeks later. Maybe they are holding back a half million units for the second launch but it sounds like they will be well behind demand for some time.
You may be right that a adding another iPad is not in the cards this year, but I think Apple will look at the competition (whatever that might be) and make a decision this summer (assuming they can get decent display yields). They would introduce a new model atop the current line at a higher price and then work the higher-res display throughout the lineup next spring. I am certainly not willing to bet this would happen but I also think that Apple is prepared to respond quickly to any perceived threat of their market position.
I really can't agree. Plans are made a year in advance with Apple. Apple doesn't come out with new models every few months as many other companies do. It's not likely that Apple changed their plans on something as major as a display Rez change at such a late date. They would know about manufacturing problems with a part well in advance of manufacturing, or even design decisions.
As far as the iPhone 4 goes, I did say that Apple doesn't do this with current generation parts. That means that there is only one iPhone 4 design, not two. They do sell the 3GS for much cheaper, but it's still the last generation, and people know it. I don't see them doing this with the iPad. They have also stated quite strongly, and I mentioned this as well, that they will NOT be a premium manufacturer in price. Steve specifically took a shot at the Xoom when he showed the pricing chart for the iPad, and said that only one of the six was priced above $800. I'm very convinced that they will stay with this pricing, and not go any higher.
I don't know why you guys think that it's so important to do this for September. It won't gain them much in sales, and it leads to a lot of problems for them in hardware and software engineering. Same in marketing and distribution.
It would have to be a desperate move on their part.
Comments
I think that Gruber's arguments still stands. A new release for a consumer product in September makes sense.
As for the retina displays - it looks like they were testing them in cupertino ( as per the iBooks iPad icon) and so the reason we dont have it is yield. why wait a year? If Apple are spending money on components they need to get their money's worth. Next year is a aeon away. Competitors, by their multi-manufacturing nature - will be producing a lot more in the next year.
Sept 2011. year of the iPad 2 HD.
( if it is just a screen change then the version does not have to change)
Of course the version would have to change. You're talking about a lot of engineering and software work to be done. They can't just replace the screen!
This is four times the pixels, performance would suffer greatly if they just replaced the screen. They would need a more powerful CPU to feed the gpu, which would need a hefty upgrade (it would need to be four times as powerful to keep up with the increased Rez).
They would have to increase the RAM.
Then the software and pictures need to be upgraded. Battery life would suffer without a newer battery and efficiency increases.
What do you think this is, a children's toy?
And all of this is going to be done in the next six months?
remember - the iPAd 2 HD does not need any other additions - no gps, no increased RAM, no NFC, no other stuff which could go into 3. Just needs a screen.
As I just said, that's totally wrong!
Uhhh, I agree with most of your posts, but to answer your question, if they were to release a larger, likely gaming-centric Touch, how about to make a boat load of money eating the lunch of the handheld gaming guys like Nintendo and Sony with a Mega Touch (which will be also used for serious apps by those who don't want to carry/can't afford an iPad)? And because there's a hole or two in their SKU lineup at the $349 and $399 prince points? And Apple hates a vacuum like that. Will that do?
(I realize there are issues of how many units they'd project selling, how they'd handle resolution, since a tweener device is either gonna have much bigger pixels (not the "retina way"), or iPad level res with tiny ones, or iOS5 is going to leap to true res independence in 2011 (P<25%) or every developer has a new "tweener res" to write for (P<10%). So, maybe not. But then people above virtually all our pay grades are puzzling the details of things like this out, so whadda I know.....
PS: The new thing - if there's a new thing - doesn't have to be a bigger screen iPod touch, or gaming optimized for that matter, e.g., maybe a Touch with the same screen size as the iPhone 5 (if it increases) - in a shell the size (or close to it) of the iP5 - utilizing all the space taken up by phone components to create an iDevice optimized for better photography that would really replace a lot of the P&S's people still carry in addition to their iPhones. My wish list would include: 8MP, HDR, 1080p, internal optical zoom, flash and video light functions and better apps to manage 'em... ...and I'd take an extra 2-3mm of depth to get 'em..... ...or???.... ...'jus sayin' there's plenty of market space left for iD's to conquer. Cams must be a big market 'cos so many companies are in it. And if people could have everything the Touch already offers in a cam with a few Appleseque cam tricks of its own at the above price points I'd say it'd be a big hit.....
We read a rumor in one place, and all of a sudden, people all over are giving crazy reasons why it will come true. I don't believe any of these current ones.
Gruber said that his idea was just that. He had no word from anyone that it would come true, and he was just expressing some reasons why he though it might be a good idea. But it isn't. While Gruber knows something about the market and Apple, he doesn't know anything about manufacturing or marketing. And those are more complex than most people think. That's why there are so many failed products.
Remember both Jobs and Cook have stated recently that they are most proud of the products they refused to do. That's a very important point that's being ignored here.
I wonder how soon the first Class action will descend if they release a 3rd iPad iteration in 2011...Could be a costly marketing boob.
A class action because a newer product was released?
2011 will be a year of Android tablets.
Is this this new party drug, that makes you puke the mornig after?
Well, I'm not always happy to see the rushed out articles in various sites that we get about new products. There are many more reasons for this not to happen, than there are for it to happen.
I'm having difficulty discerning your point. Are you defending the author based on the basis of there being worse examples of journalism out there?
The iPad, iPhone, iPod, Macs are annual releases. They are not biannual releases.
I'm assuming you meant semiannual.
Macs are certainly not on a rigid 12-month refresh schedule.
I wonder how soon the first Class action will descend if they release a 3rd iPad iteration in 2011...Could be a costly marketing boob.
Class action suit on what basis?
But if Apple needed some wiggle room they could correctly claim that their fiscal year ends 9/2011 and could announce in October - the first month of the 2012 fiscal year.
A marketing slogan means nothing. And apple constantly is dishonest about future plans.
This article is totally misguided, there's nothing stopping Apple from refreshing before the holidays - only a handful of fanboys would remember a slogan from months earlier.
Any company with any smarts peddles what they have, not what they will have.
Hello, spec whore. And I say that with absolutely no derogatory connotation; you have my word. I'm a spec whore for some products, as well.
Apple doesn't care. Nor will the millions of people who will buy the iPad 2. If the past decade and a half hasn't taught you anything, I'll sum it up:
It's not about the specs. It's about the experience.
He missed the part of the presentation where Jobs talked about technology intersecting the liberal arts and humanities.
Well, I'm not always happy to see the rushed out articles in various sites that we get about new products. There are many more reasons for this not to happen, than there are for it to happen. One thing I didn't mention in my post was that Apple is spread thin in developers and possibly, engineers. We all remember that 10.5 came out late because they needed some of those people to finish the iPhone software on time. Having more products coming out at once would stretch this even further. I just don't see enough of an advantage to offset the disadvantages.
The only way I could see this as having any chance at all is if Apple sees its lead being whittled down too rapidly, and they think they need something then to counter it. But that seems unlikely.
I think that Apple wants the iPad to be like the iPod rather than the iPhone in terms of its marketshare. I think they are prepared to move quickly to protect their lead in this space and, depending on cost and availability, will make a decision this summer.
remember - the iPAd 2 HD does not need any other additions - no gps, no increased RAM, no NFC, no other stuff which could go into 3. Just needs a screen.
They would need more RAM to accommodate a frame buffer four times larger and would probably want a more powerful GPU as well (although the current GPU could have been selected with the idea of a Retina Display in mind).
That's not much of a reason. They would do that in March as well.
I also don't understand why Apple would want to bifurcate their product line with a "pro" model. I think that's a terrible idea! One major Advantage over Android is the lack, pretty much, of differing resolutions in current models, and you want Apple to do just that?
Ramp up can take place for March even better, as it's a slower time.
A retina display model at twice the resolution would not be a huge "fragmentation" - this is what they did for the iPhone 4 and it worked fine. The developers would need to rework their graphical elements to optimize for the new screen but things would still work pretty well.
I will lay this out a slightly different way.
I believe that all the engineering for a Retina Display iPad has already been done because I think that is what Apple hoped to ship this release. Due to cost and production yields of the display, they were forced into Plan B.
I think that the rumors of production delays were incorrectly reported at a much later date and may have had something to do with the display yields.
It seems to me that production orders for the iPads went in late. They are supposed to have 400-600k units for the US launch which seems light, especially considering they are launching in 25 countries 2 weeks later. Maybe they are holding back a half million units for the second launch but it sounds like they will be well behind demand for some time.
You may be right that a adding another iPad is not in the cards this year, but I think Apple will look at the competition (whatever that might be) and make a decision this summer (assuming they can get decent display yields). They would introduce a new model atop the current line at a higher price and then work the higher-res display throughout the lineup next spring. I am certainly not willing to bet this would happen but I also think that Apple is prepared to respond quickly to any perceived threat of their market position.
... They are in the business of selling hardware. Android is set to fail face-first in the mud because of it... Bunch of hypocrites that should be fired on the spot for having such a narrow field of vision....
Android set to fail? Based on what market metric? I guess if one has a "narrow field of vision" (and should be fired?).
I love Apple products... but the blind, almost rabid fanboism of many (actually my new term is "Apple Fundementalism" for those beyond fanboy... I'd consider myself a fanboy, but like many still have a rational view of the world).
We read a rumor in one place, and all of a sudden, people all over are giving crazy reasons why it will come true. I don't believe any of these current ones.
Gruber said that his idea was just that. He had no word from anyone that it would come true, and he was just expressing some reasons why he though it might be a good idea. But it isn't. While Gruber knows something about the market and Apple, he doesn't know anything about manufacturing or marketing. And those are more complex than most people think. That's why there are so many failed products.
Remember both Jobs and Cook have stated recently that they are most proud of the products they refused to do. That's a very important point that's being ignored here.
I in no way feel that a true iPad 3 is coming in the fall (I leave upgrades to iOS as the "mid-life-refesh" of the iPad2), but equally, I don't believe Apple's exploited all they can do with the iPod line, based in extending some of the capabilities of the Touch to enter (or create) new markets. And a more gaming-centric iPod or a more photography/video-centric one would be two ways to evolve the iPod line. Which hasn't had a real new model (I consider the new Nano a "sidegrade" at best and not a new "model" in any case) in a few years.
I'm having difficulty discerning your point. Are you defending the author based on the basis of there being worse examples of journalism out there?
No. I'm saying that there are a lot of articles that come out rapidly after an event to get the views, including this one, that are not researched as carefully as they should be, because speed is the most important thing they are caring about.
I think that Apple wants the iPad to be like the iPod rather than the iPhone in terms of its marketshare. I think they are prepared to move quickly to protect their lead in this space and, depending on cost and availability, will make a decision this summer.
I doubt it.
I doubt it.
Of course they do. If they weren't interested in Market share they wouldn't have mentioned it so often.
A retina display model at twice the resolution would not be a huge "fragmentation" - this is what they did for the iPhone 4 and it worked fine. The developers would need to rework their graphical elements to optimize for the new screen but things would still work pretty well.
I will lay this out a slightly different way.
I believe that all the engineering for a Retina Display iPad has already been done because I think that is what Apple hoped to ship this release. Due to cost and production yields of the display, they were forced into Plan B.
I think that the rumors of production delays were incorrectly reported at a much later date and may have had something to do with the display yields.
It seems to me that production orders for the iPads went in late. They are supposed to have 400-600k units for the US launch which seems light, especially considering they are launching in 25 countries 2 weeks later. Maybe they are holding back a half million units for the second launch but it sounds like they will be well behind demand for some time.
You may be right that a adding another iPad is not in the cards this year, but I think Apple will look at the competition (whatever that might be) and make a decision this summer (assuming they can get decent display yields). They would introduce a new model atop the current line at a higher price and then work the higher-res display throughout the lineup next spring. I am certainly not willing to bet this would happen but I also think that Apple is prepared to respond quickly to any perceived threat of their market position.
I really can't agree. Plans are made a year in advance with Apple. Apple doesn't come out with new models every few months as many other companies do. It's not likely that Apple changed their plans on something as major as a display Rez change at such a late date. They would know about manufacturing problems with a part well in advance of manufacturing, or even design decisions.
As far as the iPhone 4 goes, I did say that Apple doesn't do this with current generation parts. That means that there is only one iPhone 4 design, not two. They do sell the 3GS for much cheaper, but it's still the last generation, and people know it. I don't see them doing this with the iPad. They have also stated quite strongly, and I mentioned this as well, that they will NOT be a premium manufacturer in price. Steve specifically took a shot at the Xoom when he showed the pricing chart for the iPad, and said that only one of the six was priced above $800. I'm very convinced that they will stay with this pricing, and not go any higher.
I don't know why you guys think that it's so important to do this for September. It won't gain them much in sales, and it leads to a lot of problems for them in hardware and software engineering. Same in marketing and distribution.
It would have to be a desperate move on their part.