Impressive lines suggest first day iPad 2 sales could hit 500k, analyst says

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster increased his first day sales estimate for the iPad 2 to an upper range of 500,000 units after initial demand surpassed his expectations, with some Apple retail stores drawing 104 percent longer lines than last year's launch.



In a research note earlier this week, Munster had suggested that launch day lines for the iPad 2 would be shorter than those for last year's launch of the original iPad, citing much greater availability of the device at more than 10,000 stores of retail partners.



However, some lines for the iPad 2 reached more than triple last year's numbers, based on Munster's checks with several Apple retail stores around the U.S. For example, the Mall of America Apple Store in Minneapolis saw 334 people in line, compared to 105 customers last year.



At Apple's flagship 5th Avenue store in New York, Piper Jaffray researchers counted 1,109 people in line on Friday, compared to 730 people last year.







However, Munster notes that his checks represent only a small sample of Apple's distribution points and do not take into account variables such as the fact that the iPad 2 launched on a Friday evening, rather than last year's Saturday morning launch.



Meanwhile, AppleInsider reported on Friday that the line at a flagship Apple Store in downtown San Francisco had reached over 140 people before noon.



Munster believes that, given the "dramatic increase in distribution points," Apple "felt it was well stocked" for the launch. In spite of the iPad maker's preparations, overwhelming demand has quickly outstripped initial supply.



According to Munster, some stores had "spotty supply" within just one hour after launch. Tight supply is expected to continue throughout the weekend. Apple currently lists ship times of "2-3 weeks" for all models of the iPad 2 ordered through the company's website.



Given the longer lines, wider availability and backlog of orders online, Munster expects Apple to reach 1 million sales faster than the 28 days it took for last year's release of the original iPad. According to the analyst, the first day of availability for the device could see as many as 400,000-500,000 units sold, compared to 300,000 units (including pre-orders) on the iPad's launch day last year.



Analysts had been steadily raising their estimates in the build-up to the iPad 2 launch. A report late Thursday suggested Apple could sell as many as 600,000 iPad 2 units this weekend. On Friday, Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities said he "would not be surprised" if weekend sales of the device topped 1 million.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 103
    WHAT A JOKE! I visited the local Apple Store and it was CLOSED until 5PM?! WTF?! A line of morons wasting their time for electronics -- turned around and went home. Some people have nothing better to do with their time. I have no intention to buy iPad 2, just wanted to try it out since I was passing by...
  • Reply 2 of 103
    rbonnerrbonner Posts: 635member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post


    WHAT A JOKE! I visited the local Apple Store and it was CLOSED until 5PM?! WTF?! A line of morons wasting their time for electronics -- turned around and went home. Some people have nothing better to do with their time. I have no intention to buy iPad 2, just wanted to try it out since I was passing by...



    Troll fail.
  • Reply 3 of 103
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post


    WHAT A JOKE! I visited the local Apple Store and it was CLOSED until 5PM?! WTF?! A line of morons wasting their time for electronics -- turned around and went home. Some people have nothing better to do with their time. I have no intention to buy iPad 2, just wanted to try it out since I was passing by...





    See emphasis above.



    That's what they all say!



    .
  • Reply 4 of 103
    iqatedoiqatedo Posts: 1,824member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post


    what a joke! I visited the local apple store and it was closed until 5pm?! Wtf?! A line of morons wasting their time for electronics -- turned around and went home. Some people have nothing better to do with their time. I have no intention to buy ipad 2, just wanted to try it out since i was passing by...



    f.o.f.w.
  • Reply 5 of 103
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 2,006member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post


    WHAT A JOKE! I visited the local Apple Store and it was CLOSED until 5PM?! WTF?! A line of morons wasting their time for electronics -- turned around and went home. Some people have nothing better to do with their time. I have no intention to buy iPad 2, just wanted to try it out since I was passing by...



    So, you were going to go into a store to try out something you have no intention of buying and you are criticizing how other people use their free time and calling them morons? And THEN you go to an Apple fan site to complain about it?

    You sure are using YOUR time well!!



    Anyway, I am going to be rather dissapointed in Apple if availability is bad through the weekend. What was the rush to put this thing out this exact week? They could have continued to build stock for a week or two until they had millions on hand--it is not like they were racing any competition to market. As I said before, I think the long lines, limited supply story only makes you look desirable for so long--eventually it will make you look unprepared... And I can't imagine international customers wouldn't be annoyed if Apple had to push back their launch again!



    Obviously, I take it all back if they blow out sales this weekend. If they sell over a million or two, well, what are you going to do...
  • Reply 6 of 103
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post


    WHAT A JOKE! I visited the local Apple Store and it was CLOSED until 5PM?! WTF?! A line of morons wasting their time for electronics -- turned around and went home. Some people have nothing better to do with their time. I have no intention to buy iPad 2, just wanted to try it out since I was passing by...





    "I have no intention to buy iPad 2, just wanted to try it out since I was passing by."



    I think maybe you protest a little too loudly, for someone, "just passing by", "just wanted to try it out." Right.
  • Reply 7 of 103
    postulantpostulant Posts: 1,272member
    Loving my new iPad. Enabled gestures with Xcode - sweet!



    Btw, long lines at BestBuy in Tyler Tx.
  • Reply 8 of 103
    iqatedoiqatedo Posts: 1,824member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    ... Anyway, I am going to be rather dissapointed in Apple if availability is bad through the weekend. What was the rush to put this thing out this exact week? They could have continued to build stock for a week or two until they had millions on hand--it is not like they were racing any competition to market. As I said before, I think the long lines, limited supply story only makes you look desirable for so long--eventually it will make you look unprepared... And I can't imagine international customers wouldn't be annoyed if Apple had to push back their launch again!



    Obviously, I take it all back if they blow out sales this weekend. If they sell over a million or two, well, what are you going to do...



    My immediate thought in response was to say 'Well, anyone who misses out can always go out and buy a... you know, that Samsung one, the...' but I had forgotten its name. \



    (is it the Galaxy?)
  • Reply 9 of 103
    HAHA I doubt he was even near an Apple Store unless there is one in his secret lair, command center (aka, basement). He’s on this site long enough to know how they close the stores before 5pm, then setup the displays, and then reopen to sell the merchandise. Does he really want us to think he’s so dumb to think they had them on display all day long and had to keep telling customers, “we aren’t selling them to you, we just wanted to fuck with you for the day.” I didn’t think a tinfoil hat would interfere with the plate in someone’s head but I might have to rethink that.
  • Reply 10 of 103
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,609member
    Last year was heavily constrained by supply, while they have nearly a month of build-up at current rates now. They should have hit 3-4x sales compared to last year without much of a stretch. 6x would be quite impressive.
  • Reply 11 of 103
    I almost think since there was bad press about small Verizon iPhone lines, they intentionally did not offer pre-orders on this one just to ensure bigger lines today.
  • Reply 12 of 103
    Compared to the iPad launch in March 2010 here in Madison, it looks like the iPad 2 will sell faster, supplies willing.



    When I arrived at the Apple store last year, one hour after the iPad went on sale, the line had about 50 people in it, and I was only 2 parties behind the lead when the Apple store ran out. I was still able to go to the nearest Best Buy with iPads to spare and no lines and purchase one.



    Today, the line at the Apple store, about 1 hour after the iPad2 became available, was 300+ people long, and I talked to those in the front of the line, who had been there since noon. This time, the line contained younger kids, excited. I asked a ten year-old how long she had been waiting in line, and she said, looking at her watch, "only 2 and a half hours.", having been dropped off by dad after school to stand with her mom and grandma who had come early. In 2010, there were no kids, only adults, and certainly no kids excited to get their hands on the iPad.



    What was Best Buy like now? Instead of no lines, the line was 50 deep and only giving away iPad 2s to those who had purchased vouchers earlier in the day. They had none otherwise to sell.



    At the display was a white and black iPad 2. A three year old was using the black one, on his tiptoes, mastering a game. Mom came to fetch him with her new iPad 2 in hand. "Come on. You can play with ours now at home. See mommy has one." Minutes went by and mom's logic and encouragement was not succeeding. Next you know, mom had picked him up to let others play with the iPad 2, and the little boy was on the floor with a mini-tantrum. Didn't see that in March 2010. Mom, in this case, had bought a second old iPad early this morning on eBay for her day care center, and she was keeping the iPad 2 for herself (and junior, no doubt).



    If Madison is an indication, then Apple could sell twice or three times more iPad 2s if supplies allowed.
  • Reply 13 of 103
    In South Beach (Miami Beach,FL) Lincoln Road Apple store had the largest line I have ever seen at ANY launch. However they sold out of ALL AT&T Ipads within the first hour. The AT&T store a few blocks away said they did not get any shipments. The Best Buy another 12 blocks away were sold out by the time I got there around 7:00 p.m. The staff estimated they only got about 80 units. I have seen postings that Walmart never got Ipads either. I have not seen any news articles about this so far. This seems to me to be a pretty big story. If Apple is going to sell these proposed numbers over the weekend then I am only guessing based on what I have seen it would have to be online. BTW, I had waited for the release and was eagerly waiting to purchase Ipad 2.
  • Reply 14 of 103
    Arrived at Atwater Village Best Buy in Los Angeles at 415PM. Line was 50 deep, grew to 100 by 5PM. Pretty sure they sold out of stock, which had just arrived at the location. Guessing they had 100 units for sale. Heard the Glendale Galleria Apple Store had run out of stock which is suprising, since its a flagship store and traditionally had loads of stock on launch day.
  • Reply 15 of 103
    recrec Posts: 217member
    reposting this here instead since the other thread seems to have devolved into a trollbait flamewar.



    Just got back from the Willow Bend mall near Plano TX. At least several hundred people waiting in line at the Apple Store there, it was 5:30 and the line wrapped most of the length of the mall itself. I would say it was at least 500 people waiting, no joke.



    I just can't help but thinking if its that crazy there, imagine what the Cube store is like in NYC right now. I was there for the original iphone release, and that was pretty nuts.



    It would seem that, at least in the Plano/Dallas TX area, Apple has completely sold through its entire alotment of iPad2's Friday night. At this point their ability to sell iPads now seems to only be constrained by supply.



    When I was at the Apple store here, the lines were way too long for something that was just a product refresh. Do people want a camera on their Apple tablet this badly? I would have to say yes. If the iPad 1 was the teaser, the iPad 2 would appear to be the payoff.



    Another thing that struck me about the lines I saw: no clear demographic of customer. Its a bit crazy because looking at one person to the next you just can't see a pattern. It's almost like looking at the line at the DMV, a true random sample of people. All age groups, all types. Obviously the one thing they have in common is they have at least $500 in their pocket, or at least on a credit card. Either way, it was a bit staggering to see.



    This is not the same company from even 5 years ago. If anyone was doubting their status as a juggernaut in the industry, all they have to do is look at what's going on tonight as evidence of that.
  • Reply 16 of 103
    Three days of good weather around the nation and the iPad 2 easily reaches one million in sales. Anyone that says that the iPad is useless and not worth the effort of consumers buying one will be proven wrong very quickly. Steve Ballmer must be tearing what little hair he has on his head out. It's going to be frustrating for him to see the 4X more expensive iPad 2 outsell the Kinect's Guinness BoR sales record just as he's still basking in the glory.
  • Reply 17 of 103
    ryzekryzek Posts: 5member
    Apple really screwed up this time. Apple store employees not properly trained had no idea the quantity or supply. Ca mon the upper management has a clue. There was well over 2000 people in line, I have the videos to prove it. At the Hillsdale Mall location in the SF Bay Area.



    I was in line 3 hours early and not one of the lucky ones. One of the Apple store employees mentioned to another within earshot that they only had 500 units and only letting people purchase 2 at a time. No vouchers no nothing from Apple store for those of us that WASTED our time waiting in line while the employees could have said your number 500 there are no more for anyone behind you would have been nice. There was almost a riot as people were told there would be plenty, hell even Apple said there would be plenty. Not even close. ANd now they are saying it could be a month before you see any at the store.



    What a load of crap Apple, this was really stupid and you pissed off allot of people. I was going to buy a brand new MacBook Pro 2K plus monitor for another 1K but forget you now.
  • Reply 18 of 103
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ryzek View Post


    Apple really screwed up this time. Apple store employees no properly trained had no idea the quantity or supply. Ca mon the upper management has a clue. There was well over 2000-3000 people in line, I have the videos to prove it. At the Hillsdale Mall location in the SF Bay Area.



    I was in line 3 hours early and not one of the lucky ones. One of the Apple store employees mentioned to another within earshot that they only had 500 units and only letting people purchase 2 at a time. No vouchers no nothing from Apple store for those of us that WASTED our time waiting in line while the employees could have said your number 500 there are no more for anyone behind you would have been nice. There was almost a riot as people were told there would be plenty, hell even Apple said there would be plenty. Not even close. ANd now they are saying it could be a month before you see any at the store.



    What a load of crap Apple, this was really stupid and you pissed off allot of people. I was going to buy a brand new MacBook Pro 2K plus monitor for another 1K but forget you now.



    U MAD, BRA?



    Honestly, come on.
  • Reply 19 of 103
    recrec Posts: 217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post


    Three days of good weather around the nation and the iPad 2 easily reaches one million in sales. Anyone that says that the iPad is useless and not worth the effort of consumers buying one will be proven wrong very quickly. Steve Ballmer must be tearing what little hair he has on his head out. It's going to be frustrating for him to see the 4X more expensive iPad 2 outsell the Kinect's Guinness BoR sales record just as he's still basking in the glory.



    If Ballmer is smart he's buying Apple stock right now.
  • Reply 20 of 103
    heyjpheyjp Posts: 39member
    I stood in line or a couple hours in Broomfield Colorado Apple Store, just south of Boulder. 180 in front of me. 150 behind me. At 5:05, they announced "no more ATT 3G units.". That was an unnecessary waste of time. They could have told people that at lunchtime.



    Our Walmarts had no units. Best Buy had 15 total. Target had five 16G WiFi only. Only one ATT store in the state had units: 5 of the smallest white ones.



    Net net: VERY little stock outside of Apple Stores.



    Jim
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