I think you're perhaps being too harsh. This guy appears to have actually pounded the pavement to obtain some from-the-ground-up data (and not like the sloppy/silly attempt by some novice reporter sniffing around in just the Palo Alto line to draw sweeping, unwarranted generalizations), and that's to be applauded.
There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation. Having said that, those people who wanted to buy were probably desperate with gadget-envy, so bought as soon as they could. That being the case, this data point (from a very small dataset) is statistically meaningless given the likely skew of the pent-up demand from this group.
All that can be deduced from this is that 70% of the 236 people surveyed did not already own an iPad. In another store the figure could be only 20%.
Assuming it was from a representative (set of) store(s), 236 is a very decent sample size.
Apple is greatly harming society with this product. Computers are the greatest invention of all time, "A bicycle for the mind" as Steve Jobs once said. And what more admirable goal for a company, than to make these amazing tools easier to use?
But there is a fine line between making a tool simple *to use* and making a simple tool. You go far enough down the second path and you are manufacturing toys.
Apple Computer, Inc was totally admirable and an historic force for good. Apple Toy Co, Inc is encouraging people to swap their "bicycles for the mind" for toys.
In the interests of mind/body harmony, I propose a special offer Apple might try with new users (such as the 70% mentioned above). When they swap their notebook for an iPad, they can also hand over a healthy meal and Apple will give them a hamburger.
"Informal survey at the Boyslton Apple Store in Boston indicate that more than 95% of iPad2 buyers are quite happy with their purchase based on actual response to the question:
Are you happy with your purchase?
and judging from their facial expression upon completion of the purchase. The other 5% were more difficult to ascertain, they were just too serious and absorbed playing with their new purchase right in the store..."
I can safely say that the above informal survey is more true than any Gene Munster survey and analsys. The same analyst
who placed an advisory that there will be no lines during the iPad2 launch, because...
whose prediction last years iPad sales during the first weekend was 50% off ...
who predicted that Apple would come out with a nano iPhone (several predictios already...
who predicted that Apple will reduce the price of the white MacBook to $800 (many times too)
who boldly predicted that Apple would sell 45M iPhones in 2009 (Apple was shy by about 9million???)
The same Gene Munster who must have made more incorrect predictions and analysis than correct ones. The Gene Munster whose quarterly predictions are more often offbase than close to the actual figure.
And yet, a number of posters here believe this "70% iPad2 buyers are newcomers"... because we feel good and want it to be true.
236 respondents and how many stores sampled? Really?
And yet another Apple Insider writer(?) who made all these extrapolations but with no word to say about the outright discrepancy of this prediction from the othe prediction the other day?
Maybe Neil Hughes does not read Apple Insider???
What is certain, both Neil Hughes and the unnamed Apple Insider staff who wrote:
either never took basic statistics in high school or college or were asleep when the lecturer discussed random sampling and valid sampling sample; not to mention how to deal with contradictory responses.
CGC
N.B.
The high proportion of newcomers as iPad2 buyers may well be true, but it would not be because of Gene Munster's survey. I am questioning the survey process here. Not the finding.
Apple could not manufacture enough, to meet demand. That there would be a large proportion of newcomers would not be surprising based on this alone. Exactly how many (or the percentage) is in question. But the pseudo-survey that Munster is so fond of would not provide the reliable answer.
Apple is greatly harming society with this product. Computers are the greatest invention of all time, "A bicycle for the mind" as Steve Jobs once said. And what more admirable goal for a company, than to make these amazing tools easier to use?
But there is a fine line between making a tool simple *to use* and making a simple tool. You go far enough down the second path and you are manufacturing toys.
Apple Computer, Inc was totally admirable and an historic force for good. Apple Toy Co, Inc is encouraging people to swap their "bicycles for the mind" for toys.
In the interests of mind/body harmony, I propose a special offer Apple might try with new users (such as the 70% mentioned above). When they swap their notebook for an iPad, they can also hand over a healthy meal and Apple will give them a hamburger.
No, I say,"should have been" or should of had. Those were things available on other devices. They should have been on iPad v1. Apple was just holding them back for the next version.
They certainly could have included cameras, and it?s clear you would have liked them to, but you still haven?t stated why they should have been included. Where is Apple?s obligation to add cameras? They could have included 10 cameras, but does that makes sense to you simply because they are technically capable of doing something?
The Samsung Nexus S included NFC HW, yet no way to use it on the shipping model. The Moto Xoom included USB and SD card slot (something else Apple could have included on the iPad) but those are still not working with the shipping models.
Since FaceTime came out in iOS 4.0 alongside the iPhone 4 it?s just another in a long line of examples of Apple only adding HW when they have the SW to use it. Can you not conceive how much people would vilify Apple for adding a front facing camera with zero SW to make use of that camera? If you think so then you are not familiar with Apple?s modus operandi.
Why are you not including the stories about the iPad having an already lower profit margin to make it more competitive in a market segment that has been an abysmal failure for 2 decades? If you really think it?s about forcing people to upgrade every year then why are even supporting 2 to 3 generations back with iOS? If they stopped updating after one year they?d still be beating the rest of the industry by a fair margin.
It?s a good lesson to learn that getting some right means balancing what you include with what you exclude, not simply adding everything that looks great on a spec sheet. We can look to the Moto Xoom to see evidence of that.
Laugh all you want at the simplistic analysis. The truth is there were few lines, and plenty of iPad v1 available for purchase days after the release (unlike the iPad v2 which is sold out anywhere). Yes, iPad v1 was successful, but people knew that Apple was holding back and waiting for v2.
Forget any talk of simple analysis. But that is just outright false. There were huge lines for the iPad, and shipping was at 3-4 weeks for months.
Even in June-July, it was impossible to walk into an NYC Apple Store and get the iPad on the spot. You had to reserve one and then wait around a week (I specifically remember this because I needed to send an iPad with a friend to my home country, and was unable to do so because contrary to my expectations iPads were not immediately available early July....although, this was the Wifi version. Maybe the 3G versions were available?).
There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation.
I see a lot of people on forums giving off that advice as if there was any truth behind it. It's a myth and ignorant people like to repeat that line as if they knew what they were talking about. They don't. There is just as likely for there to be a slight problem or a small bug or two in a second generation device as there is in a first generation device. Added features and hardware re-designs opens up the door for additional problems that were not even present in the first generation. Nothing is foolproof and there have been numerous Apple products that have had small issues with them, and many of those products were not first generation.
I was at the flagship Apple store tonight, the one on Fifth Ave, which is the biggest selling store in the entire world.
I wasn't there to get a new iPad, because there were none left and I knew that before I went there, I just happened to be in the neighborhood so I stopped by for a quick minute. I did get a chance to test out the new iPad for a little bit and there's not much to say about it besides it's great!
I already know what the headlines here are going to be this coming week.
I was talking to an Apple employee for a few minutes and while they don't know or mention any numbers of course, they did say that it was the most successful and biggest selling launch in their history. They were even sold out of all smart covers, every single one, and there were huge lines with people just to get a smart cover yesterday.
Smart cover is a cool idea I just wish there was an option to have something to protect the back of the iPad. I thought the iPad 1 case was pretty much perfect for protecting and using your iPad.
I don't have anything for my iPad 2 yet so I carry it around like a newborn baby.
Apple is greatly harming society with this product.
What are you talking about. I'm buying mine so I can read more casually without sitting in front of my computer. Like I told someone yesterday, if you want to argue that no one needs this product the same can be said anything other than food, shelter, and clothing. So if the computer you're reading this on is higher specced than my 2006 black MacBook, feel free to send it to me and liberate yourself from excess.
I just wish there was an option to have something to protect the back of the iPad. .
It doesn't seem like there is going to be an Apple case, but I'm sure that plenty of third party cases will be available for those people that want them and prefer them.
I haven't been able to buy an iPad2 yet, but when I do, I'll probably just get a smart cover for it. It almost seems like blasphemy to be covering up that slim and sleek looking product and hiding it inside of a case. The good thing is that there are options for everybody. Those who prefer naked, can do that, and those who prefer a case can go that route. In the end, everybody will be happy.
I see a lot of people on forums giving off that advice as if there was any truth behind it. It's a myth and ignorant people like to repeat that line as if they knew what they were talking about. They don't.
There isn't anything to support that it isn't true. Just like we see a bunch of members saying they are going to wait until the iPad 3 comes out this fall even though there is nothing to lead anyone to believe there is going to be an iPad 3 this fall.
No matter what the iPad2 numbers look like they are good numbers. The reason they are good numbers is they are going to be far better then what anyone else is selling.
It doesn't seem like there is going to be an Apple case, but I'm sure that plenty of third party cases will be available for those people that want them and prefer them.
I haven't been able to buy an iPad2 yet, but when I do, I'll probably just get a smart cover for it. It almost seems like blasphemy to be covering up that slim and sleek looking product and hiding it inside of a case. The good thing is that there are options for everybody. Those who prefer naked, can do that, and those who prefer a case can go that route. In the end, everybody will be happy.
There is a third party company now that has some frost semi transparent hard shell cases for the back that are about 1mm thick. The Apple store was too packed when I got mine to even bother checking out the smart cover I just wanted to get my iPad. Figured I could come back and check out the smart cover this week.
They are suppose to be getting more in on Tuesday so I can hopefully check them out then.
Good luck on getting yourself an iPad 2 soon hopefully it won't be long for you.
Good luck on getting yourself an iPad 2 soon hopefully it won't be long for you.
Thanks! I'm not desperate or anything, and I haven't put any big effort into trying to obtain one yet. There are plenty of stores that sell them in my area, and new stock is coming in, so I'll eventually be able to grab one with a little luck.
Comments
Analysts are not to be believed.
I think you're perhaps being too harsh. This guy appears to have actually pounded the pavement to obtain some from-the-ground-up data (and not like the sloppy/silly attempt by some novice reporter sniffing around in just the Palo Alto line to draw sweeping, unwarranted generalizations), and that's to be applauded.
That is what I want to know.
What percentage of those buying have no intention of even opening the box?
3.75%.
Why?
There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation. Having said that, those people who wanted to buy were probably desperate with gadget-envy, so bought as soon as they could. That being the case, this data point (from a very small dataset) is statistically meaningless given the likely skew of the pent-up demand from this group.
All that can be deduced from this is that 70% of the 236 people surveyed did not already own an iPad. In another store the figure could be only 20%.
Assuming it was from a representative (set of) store(s), 236 is a very decent sample size.
That is what I want to know.
What percentage of those buying have no intention of even opening the box?
I bought one and won't even be opening the box. My wife will.
What? Not exactly what you meant?
But there is a fine line between making a tool simple *to use* and making a simple tool. You go far enough down the second path and you are manufacturing toys.
Apple Computer, Inc was totally admirable and an historic force for good. Apple Toy Co, Inc is encouraging people to swap their "bicycles for the mind" for toys.
In the interests of mind/body harmony, I propose a special offer Apple might try with new users (such as the 70% mentioned above). When they swap their notebook for an iPad, they can also hand over a healthy meal and Apple will give them a hamburger.
I bought one and won't even be opening the box. My wife will.
What? Not exactly what you meant?
Probably meant reselling to China.
There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation. .
That reflects the experience of buyers from the 90's. I've bought plenty of gen 1 products from Apple, including iPad 1, with few if any regrets.
But it does go to show how sticky impressions can be, and why Apple releases only what they feel will work properly.
Are you happy with your purchase?
and judging from their facial expression upon completion of the purchase. The other 5% were more difficult to ascertain, they were just too serious and absorbed playing with their new purchase right in the store..."
I can safely say that the above informal survey is more true than any Gene Munster survey and analsys. The same analyst
- who placed an advisory that there will be no lines during the iPad2 launch, because...
- whose prediction last years iPad sales during the first weekend was 50% off ...
- who predicted that Apple would come out with a nano iPhone (several predictios already...
- who predicted that Apple will reduce the price of the white MacBook to $800 (many times too)
- who boldly predicted that Apple would sell 45M iPhones in 2009 (Apple was shy by about 9million???)
The same Gene Munster who must have made more incorrect predictions and analysis than correct ones. The Gene Munster whose quarterly predictions are more often offbase than close to the actual figure.And yet, a number of posters here believe this "70% iPad2 buyers are newcomers"... because we feel good and want it to be true.
236 respondents and how many stores sampled? Really?
And yet another Apple Insider writer(?) who made all these extrapolations but with no word to say about the outright discrepancy of this prediction from the othe prediction the other day?
Maybe Neil Hughes does not read Apple Insider???
What is certain, both Neil Hughes and the unnamed Apple Insider staff who wrote:
Survey says 70% of first iPad 2 buyers own original iPad
either never took basic statistics in high school or college or were asleep when the lecturer discussed random sampling and valid sampling sample; not to mention how to deal with contradictory responses.
CGC
N.B.
The high proportion of newcomers as iPad2 buyers may well be true, but it would not be because of Gene Munster's survey. I am questioning the survey process here. Not the finding.
Apple could not manufacture enough, to meet demand. That there would be a large proportion of newcomers would not be surprising based on this alone. Exactly how many (or the percentage) is in question. But the pseudo-survey that Munster is so fond of would not provide the reliable answer.
Apple is greatly harming society with this product. Computers are the greatest invention of all time, "A bicycle for the mind" as Steve Jobs once said. And what more admirable goal for a company, than to make these amazing tools easier to use?
But there is a fine line between making a tool simple *to use* and making a simple tool. You go far enough down the second path and you are manufacturing toys.
Apple Computer, Inc was totally admirable and an historic force for good. Apple Toy Co, Inc is encouraging people to swap their "bicycles for the mind" for toys.
In the interests of mind/body harmony, I propose a special offer Apple might try with new users (such as the 70% mentioned above). When they swap their notebook for an iPad, they can also hand over a healthy meal and Apple will give them a hamburger.
Pretentious much?
No, I say,"should have been" or should of had. Those were things available on other devices. They should have been on iPad v1. Apple was just holding them back for the next version.
They certainly could have included cameras, and it?s clear you would have liked them to, but you still haven?t stated why they should have been included. Where is Apple?s obligation to add cameras? They could have included 10 cameras, but does that makes sense to you simply because they are technically capable of doing something?
The Samsung Nexus S included NFC HW, yet no way to use it on the shipping model. The Moto Xoom included USB and SD card slot (something else Apple could have included on the iPad) but those are still not working with the shipping models.
Since FaceTime came out in iOS 4.0 alongside the iPhone 4 it?s just another in a long line of examples of Apple only adding HW when they have the SW to use it. Can you not conceive how much people would vilify Apple for adding a front facing camera with zero SW to make use of that camera? If you think so then you are not familiar with Apple?s modus operandi.
Why are you not including the stories about the iPad having an already lower profit margin to make it more competitive in a market segment that has been an abysmal failure for 2 decades? If you really think it?s about forcing people to upgrade every year then why are even supporting 2 to 3 generations back with iOS? If they stopped updating after one year they?d still be beating the rest of the industry by a fair margin.
It?s a good lesson to learn that getting some right means balancing what you include with what you exclude, not simply adding everything that looks great on a spec sheet. We can look to the Moto Xoom to see evidence of that.
Laugh all you want at the simplistic analysis. The truth is there were few lines, and plenty of iPad v1 available for purchase days after the release (unlike the iPad v2 which is sold out anywhere). Yes, iPad v1 was successful, but people knew that Apple was holding back and waiting for v2.
Forget any talk of simple analysis. But that is just outright false. There were huge lines for the iPad, and shipping was at 3-4 weeks for months.
Even in June-July, it was impossible to walk into an NYC Apple Store and get the iPad on the spot. You had to reserve one and then wait around a week (I specifically remember this because I needed to send an iPad with a friend to my home country, and was unable to do so because contrary to my expectations iPads were not immediately available early July....although, this was the Wifi version. Maybe the 3G versions were available?).
There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation.
I see a lot of people on forums giving off that advice as if there was any truth behind it. It's a myth and ignorant people like to repeat that line as if they knew what they were talking about. They don't. There is just as likely for there to be a slight problem or a small bug or two in a second generation device as there is in a first generation device. Added features and hardware re-designs opens up the door for additional problems that were not even present in the first generation. Nothing is foolproof and there have been numerous Apple products that have had small issues with them, and many of those products were not first generation.
I was at the flagship Apple store tonight, the one on Fifth Ave, which is the biggest selling store in the entire world.
I wasn't there to get a new iPad, because there were none left and I knew that before I went there, I just happened to be in the neighborhood so I stopped by for a quick minute. I did get a chance to test out the new iPad for a little bit and there's not much to say about it besides it's great!
I already know what the headlines here are going to be this coming week.
I was talking to an Apple employee for a few minutes and while they don't know or mention any numbers of course, they did say that it was the most successful and biggest selling launch in their history. They were even sold out of all smart covers, every single one, and there were huge lines with people just to get a smart cover yesterday.
Smart cover is a cool idea I just wish there was an option to have something to protect the back of the iPad. I thought the iPad 1 case was pretty much perfect for protecting and using your iPad.
I don't have anything for my iPad 2 yet so I carry it around like a newborn baby.
Apple is greatly harming society with this product.
What are you talking about. I'm buying mine so I can read more casually without sitting in front of my computer. Like I told someone yesterday, if you want to argue that no one needs this product the same can be said anything other than food, shelter, and clothing. So if the computer you're reading this on is higher specced than my 2006 black MacBook, feel free to send it to me and liberate yourself from excess.
I just wish there was an option to have something to protect the back of the iPad. .
It doesn't seem like there is going to be an Apple case, but I'm sure that plenty of third party cases will be available for those people that want them and prefer them.
I haven't been able to buy an iPad2 yet, but when I do, I'll probably just get a smart cover for it. It almost seems like blasphemy to be covering up that slim and sleek looking product and hiding it inside of a case. The good thing is that there are options for everybody. Those who prefer naked, can do that, and those who prefer a case can go that route. In the end, everybody will be happy.
I see a lot of people on forums giving off that advice as if there was any truth behind it. It's a myth and ignorant people like to repeat that line as if they knew what they were talking about. They don't.
There isn't anything to support that it isn't true. Just like we see a bunch of members saying they are going to wait until the iPad 3 comes out this fall even though there is nothing to lead anyone to believe there is going to be an iPad 3 this fall.
No matter what the iPad2 numbers look like they are good numbers. The reason they are good numbers is they are going to be far better then what anyone else is selling.
It doesn't seem like there is going to be an Apple case, but I'm sure that plenty of third party cases will be available for those people that want them and prefer them.
I haven't been able to buy an iPad2 yet, but when I do, I'll probably just get a smart cover for it. It almost seems like blasphemy to be covering up that slim and sleek looking product and hiding it inside of a case. The good thing is that there are options for everybody. Those who prefer naked, can do that, and those who prefer a case can go that route. In the end, everybody will be happy.
There is a third party company now that has some frost semi transparent hard shell cases for the back that are about 1mm thick. The Apple store was too packed when I got mine to even bother checking out the smart cover I just wanted to get my iPad. Figured I could come back and check out the smart cover this week.
They are suppose to be getting more in on Tuesday so I can hopefully check them out then.
Good luck on getting yourself an iPad 2 soon hopefully it won't be long for you.
So if the computer you're reading this on is higher specced than my 2006 black MacBook, feel free to send it to me and liberate yourself from excess.
I'm reading this on my 2007 black Macbook, and no way would I ever give it away to anybody. I love that machine.
Good luck on getting yourself an iPad 2 soon hopefully it won't be long for you.
Thanks! I'm not desperate or anything, and I haven't put any big effort into trying to obtain one yet. There are plenty of stores that sell them in my area, and new stock is coming in, so I'll eventually be able to grab one with a little luck.
So this survey is better, but doesn't strike me as good.
Huh?