While I agree that Apple will be in a strong position for the foreseeable future.... I must correct one thing...
The iPhone is on 200 carriers around the globe. If the iPhone was on Verizon or even Sprint and T-Mobile for the past couple of years in the US... it probably wouldn't have made that much difference overall.
The iPhone is already on multiple carriers in many countries... and in many cases Android phones overall beat iPhone sales.
But I don't really think that hurts Apple... especially if you read my previous comment 2 up from this one...
Well at least here in Malaysia, part of the problem with getting an iPhone, is that it's only directly from the telco's who have it, and its not subsidized by much (it's about USB 600 on the plan about 700 without), and during the 1st 3 months of availability it was only possible to get on the wait list (2-3 week wait) if you were willing to sign on for a new iPhone plan. We also have a preference here of getting phones out of contract and getting our calling plans separately.
One of the things that still REALLY bothers me is that the BBC News website still uses flash for embedded videos in their articles. These videos are using the iPlayer technology which we know has a non-flash browser version which runs on iOS. So why won't BBC make the very simple change to their articles to detect whether flash is installed on the device, and if not present the alternative version of the video?
This is the only site which I use on a day to day basis which still heavily depends on flash for some of it's content. I have the iOS BBC News app on both iPad and iPhone, but I just prefer the website as I use the "Most Read" all the time, and that isn't in the apps.
interesting. where i'm currently contracting, the company has determined all their clients are getting ipads and have put flash projects on hold and investigating how they can port them to html.
Users are sheep and just want to watch the video or play the game. They don't really care about the format they just want the end product.
It's the developers that will decide on Flash. If they can find a tool that let's them do what they need to without flash they'll use it because the mobile market will be large enough that this makes sense.
I think it's unlikely that Flash will completely die out, even if it does, it will be many years before this happens. Adobe dominates the market with their graphics and web design application, so it's easy for them to integrate Flash with these applications. Game is another one top reason developers won't completely quit using Flash. HTML5 can do well pretty much in everything, but so far the only games I've seen done with HTML5 are really basic and isn't anywhere near as good as Flash games.
Narayen is truly awful. He claims that the feud is over by lying about the nature of Apple's complaint about Flash, in effect calling Jobs a liar. That is not ending a feud, it is making sure it blazes more strongly.
The trouble with capitalism is the role, incompetence and insane salaries of CEO's. They are ruining perfectly good companies. Marx didn't foresee this problem and no new Marx has been born to show the way out.
And here's the funny part... last quarter Apple was selling an average of 200,000 iPhones every day. That's ONE company.
Android's latest numbers are 400,000 every day... but that's from 50+ phones spread out over a dozen manufacturers.
The truth is... Apple is actually doing better than each of the Android manufacturers. Those manufacturers would KILL for Apple's numbers.
Sure... if you combine all the Android manufacturers together... of course Android's numbers will be higher.
But... HP doesn't combine their numbers will Dell when they give their results for computers... so why would you combine Samsung, HTC, LG and Motorola for phones? Those companies are bitter enemies.
Example... If Samsung has a great quarter and sells a tons of phones.... you don't hear Motorola piggybacking on that announcement saying "yay! we sell Android phones too! Team Android... go us!"
The only way it makes sense is if you say "Google's Android OS" is on X number of phones sold. But, that's not a correct comparison either... because Google doesn't sell phones...
Apple does. And Samsung, HTC, LG and Motorola each sell phones too.
I agree. The whole 'Android is winning" is simply coming from Apple haters and they cling to whatever statistic makes them feel good. They had to move to loving Android after Microsoft embarrassed them so badly with all its recent failures. They had nothing else to cling to other than Flash which suddenly became the 'second front' after Android.
We Apple fans all simply need to stop quoting Mac, iPad or iPhone sales and talk about Apple OS (iOS and OS X) numbers out there. The total number is pretty impressive. Then throw in the profitability numbers for all Apple OS products and finish of with a few little things like Apple's worth, retails stores, YOY growth and oh, how about customer satisfaction? ... Oh I now see why Apple haters are in such a state ... LOL
The reality is simply technology changes, and along with it, many parts and pieces, and Flash is just one of those pieces.
Hell HTML5 will likely be replace. By what, from who - who knows, but they will both be replaced.
Hell the iPhone, iPad, iPod won't be the next big thing as they are already here. It's evolution - shit happens. We all use to be fine living in the current time, but now, many of us, expect and want "The latest and great NEXT thing ? now. Which means, it's not the latest and greatest things, because the NEXT thing, is in fact, the latest and greatest.
I for one, would LOVE to have the world and technology slow down for just a bit please. NONE of us, fully use the capabilities of any of our toys right now, yet we want them to go fasters, do more, use less energy, do better, cheaper, cleaner and better then the other guys.
But hey, we should all enjoy it while we can. Because it and we, won't be around for ever.
Still waiting for an HTML5 authoring tool that offers what Flash does.
Still waiting for a way to display DRM protected HTML5 video.
Still waiting for HTML5 consistency across browsers and devices.
Until then, Flash is the only way you can achieve these things. Web developers won't be ditching it any time soon.
(And that's why I'd rather have the CHOICE of having Flash, rather than nothing at all)
The solutions to all you mention are a bit too slow in coming I agree, never the less the best way to force the development is to remove the crutches and try to stand without Flash, painful as it may be for a while.
I for one wish Apple would come out with an iWeb type application that at least did some HTML5 authoring to show the way as they did with Mac Paint and Mac Draw when a GUI was so new. Back then DOS was hailed for having all the answers and something as dramatically different as a GUI wouldn't have got far without Apple's own set of products to pave the way for the likes of Adobe and Aldus.
Granted HTML5 is taking off a bit slow the fact is it's growing and it doesn't require using the software from Adobe or any other corporation.
Adobe's CEO seems to think that Android phones and tablets will somehow be the savior of Flash when in fact the real danger is HTML5 and other tech that doesn't require expensive software to leverage becoming the standard.
No one is excited about Flash ...it's kind of the incumbent technology that's waiting to get put out to pasture once the young plucky stalwart comes to take the throne.
I'm seeing Silverlight have a better longevity than Flash at this point. It's used with success on WP7 and for Netflix streaming on Windows and Mac OS.
Moto is on its 2nd tablet in 4 months. Now multiply that by 200 OEMS and you'll eventually have a glut of tablets on the market going for $50.00 You know damn well this xmas them crap tablets running Android 2.1 will be big a$$ doorbusters at Wall mart on black Friday.
Ramping up for Christmas starts in March-May period. Parts are on order and I am not reading that anyone is ramping up big enough to supply the likes of Walmart or a Best Buy consumer electronics chain. Christmas is put to bed by June by major retailers - as they demand delivery with severe penalties for those who don't supply orders.. Lastly, test marketing of tablets by major retailers is a must do before they will be offered large orders - and the orders they do place will be GUARANTEED SALE until such time they prove themselves. Now, who will qualify besides HP to meet this criteria on large quantities? Samsung is capable but missing key ingredients. The problem with HP is that they are late to the game already for this years Christmas. While they may be able to pull off some recognition if their tablet has what it takes to sell through, there is no evidence of that yet. The fact is that competitors are still working on basic requirements that the ipad has fully entrenched in a viable business model. I believe that Apple could sell even more ipads if there is at least one viable competitor drawing even more attention to the category. But that is not the case at retail at all right now. World distribution will not embrace a competitor unless it can sell through. Android is not a likely single competitor, and instead is a fragmented large group of products that have no marketing in common that is needed at retail right now. So, I will place my bet on HP to come up with an alternative and a software package that begins to meet some of the requirements that the ipad enjoys as standards to meet of beat. But I wouldn't invest in HP on that bet, as they will not be able to make any money on their entry this year - the cost of entry has gone way way up and they are already late to the game for 2011. Advertising alone will eat all the profit out of a new entry for this Christmas season. Retailers like Best Buy and Walmart will make sure of that. Supply is going to be a big challenge for a new entry to ramp up a big order if they can even get one - it should already be a done deal for Christmas. And distribution should already be in place if they want this Christmas to be big for their entry in the tablet market. The world economy won't take chances on a new entry right now in a big way without 100% guarantees and big bucks in advertising as part of a buy-in by the retailer.. Retailers are going to go with one good product that has all its selling points tweaked like the ipad does. they have better things to do than nurse the failures that we have seen to date through their stores to end users. Your 200 OEM's can't scratch the surface of what it takes at this moment in time to satisfy the needs of major retailers like Walmart or a Best Buy.
Ramping up for Christmas starts in March-May period. Parts are on order and I am not reading that anyone is ramping up big enough to supply the likes of Walmart or a Best Buy consumer electronics chain. Christmas is put to bed by June by major retailers - as they demand delivery with severe penalties for those who don't supply orders.. Lastly, test marketing of tablets by major retailers is a must do before they will be offered large orders - and the orders they do place will be GUARANTEED SALE until such time they prove themselves. Now, who will qualify besides HP to meet this criteria on large quantities? Samsung is capable but missing key ingredients. The problem with HP is that they are late to the game already for this years Christmas. While they may be able to pull off some recognition if their tablet has what it takes to sell through, there is no evidence of that yet. The fact is that competitors are still working on basic requirements that the ipad has fully entrenched in a viable business model. I believe that Apple could sell even more ipads if there is at least one viable competitor drawing even more attention to the category. But that is not the case at retail at all right now. World distribution will not embrace a competitor unless it can sell through. Android is not a likely single competitor, and instead is a fragmented large group of products that have no marketing in common that is needed at retail right now. So, I will place my bet on HP to come up with an alternative and a software package that begins to meet some of the requirements that the ipad enjoys as standards to meet of beat. But I wouldn't invest in HP on that bet, as they will not be able to make any money on their entry this year - the cost of entry has gone way way up and they are already late to the game for 2011. Advertising alone will eat all the profit out of a new entry for this Christmas season. Retailers like Best Buy and Walmart will make sure of that. Supply is going to be a big challenge for a new entry to ramp up a big order if they can even get one - it should already be a done deal for Christmas. And distribution should already be in place if they want this Christmas to be big for their entry in the tablet market. The world economy won't take chances on a new entry right now in a big way without 100% guarantees and big bucks in advertising as part of a buy-in by the retailer.. Retailers are going to go with one good product that has all its selling points tweaked like the ipad does. they have better things to do than nurse the failures that we have seen to date through their stores to end users. Your 200 OEM's can't scratch the surface of what it takes at this moment in time to satisfy the needs of major retailers like Walmart or a Best Buy.
That is not correct.
Read the story just a few days ago about build plans for the other tablet manufacturers. The estimate was that Apple would build 38 M iPads and the competitors combined would build 35 M tablets. there were a number of vendors in the multi-million unit range. That's plenty to stock even a Best Buy or Walmart (or both).
Those tablets are not available yet, but since you're talking about Christmas, there's plenty of time to have them on the shelves by November.
Still waiting for a way to display DRM protected HTML5 video.
HTML5 video doesnt exist, the HTML5 got video tag but the video it self can be any format with any DRM which the OS (Quicktime on Mac or WMV on Windows) can decode.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neiltc13
Still waiting for HTML5 consistency across browsers and devices.
Webkit is the new standard, Chrome, Safari and most of Mobile browser is based on Webkit, so HTML5 is pretty as much consistent as Flash can be on all platform.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neiltc13
Until then, Flash is the only way you can achieve these things. Web developers won't be ditching it any time soon.
(And that's why I'd rather have the CHOICE of having Flash, rather than nothing at all)
Flash is a fast lane to animation and interactivity, but most of so called flash developer i've meet was awful programmer and awful designer. Most of flash we see on the web are ads and I more than happy without Flash on my computer and iOS device.
Granted HTML5 is taking off a bit slow the fact is it's growing and it doesn't require using the software from Adobe or any other corporation.
Adobe's CEO seems to think that Android phones and tablets will somehow be the savior of Flash when in fact the real danger is HTML5 and other tech that doesn't require expensive software to leverage becoming the standard.
No one is excited about Flash ...it's kind of the incumbent technology that's waiting to get put out to pasture once the young plucky stalwart comes to take the throne.
It is not matter of excitement - Flash is around for so long to make anyone excited any more. It is matter of practicality - number of sites using Flash is still to big to be ignored. It does the job, and for majority of desktop OS users (except OSX) it works fine. It also seems to work fine on Android, much as my friends having Android have presented me. I haven't noticed Flash declining (regardless of what "Flash is doomed" coalition keep saying), but just out of curiosity - are there any reliable stats about Flash and HTML5 growth/decline available?
I would expect that Flash - like any other technology - will eventually go down the history lane, but I doubt HTML5 will be responsible; completely new technology will emerge, sooner or later. HTML5, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes into black hole before Flash.
The solutions to all you mention are a bit too slow in coming I agree, never the less the best way to force the development is to remove the crutches and try to stand without Flash, painful as it may be for a while.
The video wars continue. H.264, Ogg, WebM...Flash. Everyone wants video and no one want ads.
Ghostery along with Click2Flash and you are all set on the Mac.
Advertisers are basically lazy. They won't spend the effort to develop both a Flash ad and an HTML5 version. Once they convert to HTML5 ads, then Flash will subside. Hopefully Ghostery will still be able to kill them. Unfortunately HTML5 ads will pollute iOS without something similar for Mobile Safari.
Am I the only one who goes for a week or more not hitting anything that needs Flash?
By need I'm not referring to some lame applet, but something that hinders my work in general. Bottom line is that (worthwhile) sites want to make cash and/or serve all of their customers equally. In the past year I've seen Flash dwindle like mad.
When people running iOS are more likely to spend, alienating them -- even if a minority, is something smart businesses will avoid. Flash came at a time when animated GIFs were the most exciting looking thing on a page. It filled a void in a half-assed sort of way. When someone manages to port an entire OS to JavaScript we can say free tools are much more advanced than 15 years ago. In case some of you missed it, Linux was ported to JavaScript. Can Flash do that?
There's more cross platform awareness amongst developers nowadays. Amongst the tech savvy MacBooks seem to be in every other person's lap. Most developers have at least toyed with Linux and keep its existence in the back of their minds.
The writing is on the wall for Flash. Bringing it to Android is a great way to make iOS look better after it eats battery life, processor power, creates heat, and flat out works like shit since it's been a mouse and keyboard controlled environment since its conception.
Is the Adobe CEO anything but a Troll at this point? If he really believes what he is saying, he should be fired. Actually he should be fired either way. Wow. Maybe he could take the job at RIM.
I do not like Narayen, and I'm no fan of Steve Jobs.
But Adobe has always been wrong about Flash, and everyone loses because of it. Apple had the courage to stand up and say NO, this terrible CPU/battery hog is holding back great devices from coming to market...what's more, other technologies already exist to easily replace it.
Adobe fires back with, what do you mean replace Flash? It's been a cash cow for us, and is delivering 80% of video on the web! You can't replace Flash. You'll just have to suffer through poor performance and lack of innovation because our product "won".
Guess again. Consumers proved that they want new products (shocker) instead of more of the same. Who could have seen that coming? Oh, Apple...and anyone with common sense.
I think back and laugh so hard at the thought of people who said they'd never buy an iPhone or iPad because they couldn't go to their usual free website and play free flash games. Meanwhile, every game out there is available free or cheap through the App Store, and it's a full screen touch game, rather than a tiny game square amid an entire page of ad links.
Comments
While I agree that Apple will be in a strong position for the foreseeable future.... I must correct one thing...
The iPhone is on 200 carriers around the globe. If the iPhone was on Verizon or even Sprint and T-Mobile for the past couple of years in the US... it probably wouldn't have made that much difference overall.
The iPhone is already on multiple carriers in many countries... and in many cases Android phones overall beat iPhone sales.
But I don't really think that hurts Apple... especially if you read my previous comment 2 up from this one...
Well at least here in Malaysia, part of the problem with getting an iPhone, is that it's only directly from the telco's who have it, and its not subsidized by much (it's about USB 600 on the plan about 700 without), and during the 1st 3 months of availability it was only possible to get on the wait list (2-3 week wait) if you were willing to sign on for a new iPhone plan. We also have a preference here of getting phones out of contract and getting our calling plans separately.
This is the only site which I use on a day to day basis which still heavily depends on flash for some of it's content. I have the iOS BBC News app on both iPad and iPhone, but I just prefer the website as I use the "Most Read" all the time, and that isn't in the apps.
Flash is why Terrorists hate America.
No, that's the love for Israel.
Users are sheep and just want to watch the video or play the game. They don't really care about the format they just want the end product.
It's the developers that will decide on Flash. If they can find a tool that let's them do what they need to without flash they'll use it because the mobile market will be large enough that this makes sense.
I think it's unlikely that Flash will completely die out, even if it does, it will be many years before this happens. Adobe dominates the market with their graphics and web design application, so it's easy for them to integrate Flash with these applications. Game is another one top reason developers won't completely quit using Flash. HTML5 can do well pretty much in everything, but so far the only games I've seen done with HTML5 are really basic and isn't anywhere near as good as Flash games.
The trouble with capitalism is the role, incompetence and insane salaries of CEO's. They are ruining perfectly good companies. Marx didn't foresee this problem and no new Marx has been born to show the way out.
That's exactly right.
And here's the funny part... last quarter Apple was selling an average of 200,000 iPhones every day. That's ONE company.
Android's latest numbers are 400,000 every day... but that's from 50+ phones spread out over a dozen manufacturers.
The truth is... Apple is actually doing better than each of the Android manufacturers. Those manufacturers would KILL for Apple's numbers.
Sure... if you combine all the Android manufacturers together... of course Android's numbers will be higher.
But... HP doesn't combine their numbers will Dell when they give their results for computers... so why would you combine Samsung, HTC, LG and Motorola for phones? Those companies are bitter enemies.
Example... If Samsung has a great quarter and sells a tons of phones.... you don't hear Motorola piggybacking on that announcement saying "yay! we sell Android phones too! Team Android... go us!"
The only way it makes sense is if you say "Google's Android OS" is on X number of phones sold. But, that's not a correct comparison either... because Google doesn't sell phones...
Apple does. And Samsung, HTC, LG and Motorola each sell phones too.
I agree. The whole 'Android is winning" is simply coming from Apple haters and they cling to whatever statistic makes them feel good. They had to move to loving Android after Microsoft embarrassed them so badly with all its recent failures. They had nothing else to cling to other than Flash which suddenly became the 'second front' after Android.
We Apple fans all simply need to stop quoting Mac, iPad or iPhone sales and talk about Apple OS (iOS and OS X) numbers out there. The total number is pretty impressive. Then throw in the profitability numbers for all Apple OS products and finish of with a few little things like Apple's worth, retails stores, YOY growth and oh, how about customer satisfaction? ... Oh I now see why Apple haters are in such a state ... LOL
Flash will be a "Flash in the pan"!
The reality is simply technology changes, and along with it, many parts and pieces, and Flash is just one of those pieces.
Hell HTML5 will likely be replace. By what, from who - who knows, but they will both be replaced.
Hell the iPhone, iPad, iPod won't be the next big thing as they are already here. It's evolution - shit happens. We all use to be fine living in the current time, but now, many of us, expect and want "The latest and great NEXT thing ? now. Which means, it's not the latest and greatest things, because the NEXT thing, is in fact, the latest and greatest.
I for one, would LOVE to have the world and technology slow down for just a bit please. NONE of us, fully use the capabilities of any of our toys right now, yet we want them to go fasters, do more, use less energy, do better, cheaper, cleaner and better then the other guys.
But hey, we should all enjoy it while we can. Because it and we, won't be around for ever.
Skip
Still waiting for a way to display DRM protected HTML5 video.
Still waiting for HTML5 consistency across browsers and devices.
Until then, Flash is the only way you can achieve these things. Web developers won't be ditching it any time soon.
(And that's why I'd rather have the CHOICE of having Flash, rather than nothing at all)
Still waiting for an HTML5 authoring tool that offers what Flash does.
Still waiting for a way to display DRM protected HTML5 video.
Still waiting for HTML5 consistency across browsers and devices.
Until then, Flash is the only way you can achieve these things. Web developers won't be ditching it any time soon.
(And that's why I'd rather have the CHOICE of having Flash, rather than nothing at all)
The solutions to all you mention are a bit too slow in coming I agree, never the less the best way to force the development is to remove the crutches and try to stand without Flash, painful as it may be for a while.
I for one wish Apple would come out with an iWeb type application that at least did some HTML5 authoring to show the way as they did with Mac Paint and Mac Draw when a GUI was so new. Back then DOS was hailed for having all the answers and something as dramatically different as a GUI wouldn't have got far without Apple's own set of products to pave the way for the likes of Adobe and Aldus.
Granted HTML5 is taking off a bit slow the fact is it's growing and it doesn't require using the software from Adobe or any other corporation.
Adobe's CEO seems to think that Android phones and tablets will somehow be the savior of Flash when in fact the real danger is HTML5 and other tech that doesn't require expensive software to leverage becoming the standard.
No one is excited about Flash ...it's kind of the incumbent technology that's waiting to get put out to pasture once the young plucky stalwart comes to take the throne.
I'm seeing Silverlight have a better longevity than Flash at this point. It's used with success on WP7 and for Netflix streaming on Windows and Mac OS.
Moto is on its 2nd tablet in 4 months. Now multiply that by 200 OEMS and you'll eventually have a glut of tablets on the market going for $50.00 You know damn well this xmas them crap tablets running Android 2.1 will be big a$$ doorbusters at Wall mart on black Friday.
Ramping up for Christmas starts in March-May period. Parts are on order and I am not reading that anyone is ramping up big enough to supply the likes of Walmart or a Best Buy consumer electronics chain. Christmas is put to bed by June by major retailers - as they demand delivery with severe penalties for those who don't supply orders.. Lastly, test marketing of tablets by major retailers is a must do before they will be offered large orders - and the orders they do place will be GUARANTEED SALE until such time they prove themselves. Now, who will qualify besides HP to meet this criteria on large quantities? Samsung is capable but missing key ingredients. The problem with HP is that they are late to the game already for this years Christmas. While they may be able to pull off some recognition if their tablet has what it takes to sell through, there is no evidence of that yet. The fact is that competitors are still working on basic requirements that the ipad has fully entrenched in a viable business model. I believe that Apple could sell even more ipads if there is at least one viable competitor drawing even more attention to the category. But that is not the case at retail at all right now. World distribution will not embrace a competitor unless it can sell through. Android is not a likely single competitor, and instead is a fragmented large group of products that have no marketing in common that is needed at retail right now. So, I will place my bet on HP to come up with an alternative and a software package that begins to meet some of the requirements that the ipad enjoys as standards to meet of beat. But I wouldn't invest in HP on that bet, as they will not be able to make any money on their entry this year - the cost of entry has gone way way up and they are already late to the game for 2011. Advertising alone will eat all the profit out of a new entry for this Christmas season. Retailers like Best Buy and Walmart will make sure of that. Supply is going to be a big challenge for a new entry to ramp up a big order if they can even get one - it should already be a done deal for Christmas. And distribution should already be in place if they want this Christmas to be big for their entry in the tablet market. The world economy won't take chances on a new entry right now in a big way without 100% guarantees and big bucks in advertising as part of a buy-in by the retailer.. Retailers are going to go with one good product that has all its selling points tweaked like the ipad does. they have better things to do than nurse the failures that we have seen to date through their stores to end users. Your 200 OEM's can't scratch the surface of what it takes at this moment in time to satisfy the needs of major retailers like Walmart or a Best Buy.
Ramping up for Christmas starts in March-May period. Parts are on order and I am not reading that anyone is ramping up big enough to supply the likes of Walmart or a Best Buy consumer electronics chain. Christmas is put to bed by June by major retailers - as they demand delivery with severe penalties for those who don't supply orders.. Lastly, test marketing of tablets by major retailers is a must do before they will be offered large orders - and the orders they do place will be GUARANTEED SALE until such time they prove themselves. Now, who will qualify besides HP to meet this criteria on large quantities? Samsung is capable but missing key ingredients. The problem with HP is that they are late to the game already for this years Christmas. While they may be able to pull off some recognition if their tablet has what it takes to sell through, there is no evidence of that yet. The fact is that competitors are still working on basic requirements that the ipad has fully entrenched in a viable business model. I believe that Apple could sell even more ipads if there is at least one viable competitor drawing even more attention to the category. But that is not the case at retail at all right now. World distribution will not embrace a competitor unless it can sell through. Android is not a likely single competitor, and instead is a fragmented large group of products that have no marketing in common that is needed at retail right now. So, I will place my bet on HP to come up with an alternative and a software package that begins to meet some of the requirements that the ipad enjoys as standards to meet of beat. But I wouldn't invest in HP on that bet, as they will not be able to make any money on their entry this year - the cost of entry has gone way way up and they are already late to the game for 2011. Advertising alone will eat all the profit out of a new entry for this Christmas season. Retailers like Best Buy and Walmart will make sure of that. Supply is going to be a big challenge for a new entry to ramp up a big order if they can even get one - it should already be a done deal for Christmas. And distribution should already be in place if they want this Christmas to be big for their entry in the tablet market. The world economy won't take chances on a new entry right now in a big way without 100% guarantees and big bucks in advertising as part of a buy-in by the retailer.. Retailers are going to go with one good product that has all its selling points tweaked like the ipad does. they have better things to do than nurse the failures that we have seen to date through their stores to end users. Your 200 OEM's can't scratch the surface of what it takes at this moment in time to satisfy the needs of major retailers like Walmart or a Best Buy.
That is not correct.
Read the story just a few days ago about build plans for the other tablet manufacturers. The estimate was that Apple would build 38 M iPads and the competitors combined would build 35 M tablets. there were a number of vendors in the multi-million unit range. That's plenty to stock even a Best Buy or Walmart (or both).
Those tablets are not available yet, but since you're talking about Christmas, there's plenty of time to have them on the shelves by November.
Still waiting for an HTML5 authoring tool that offers what Flash does.
Take a look at this: http://tumultco.com/hype/
Still waiting for a way to display DRM protected HTML5 video.
HTML5 video doesnt exist, the HTML5 got video tag but the video it self can be any format with any DRM which the OS (Quicktime on Mac or WMV on Windows) can decode.
Still waiting for HTML5 consistency across browsers and devices.
Webkit is the new standard, Chrome, Safari and most of Mobile browser is based on Webkit, so HTML5 is pretty as much consistent as Flash can be on all platform.
Until then, Flash is the only way you can achieve these things. Web developers won't be ditching it any time soon.
(And that's why I'd rather have the CHOICE of having Flash, rather than nothing at all)
Flash is a fast lane to animation and interactivity, but most of so called flash developer i've meet was awful programmer and awful designer. Most of flash we see on the web are ads and I more than happy without Flash on my computer and iOS device.
Exactly what would you expect the Adobe CEO to say?
Sorry, for all the Acrobat and Flash security holes.
Granted HTML5 is taking off a bit slow the fact is it's growing and it doesn't require using the software from Adobe or any other corporation.
Adobe's CEO seems to think that Android phones and tablets will somehow be the savior of Flash when in fact the real danger is HTML5 and other tech that doesn't require expensive software to leverage becoming the standard.
No one is excited about Flash ...it's kind of the incumbent technology that's waiting to get put out to pasture once the young plucky stalwart comes to take the throne.
It is not matter of excitement - Flash is around for so long to make anyone excited any more. It is matter of practicality - number of sites using Flash is still to big to be ignored. It does the job, and for majority of desktop OS users (except OSX) it works fine. It also seems to work fine on Android, much as my friends having Android have presented me. I haven't noticed Flash declining (regardless of what "Flash is doomed" coalition keep saying), but just out of curiosity - are there any reliable stats about Flash and HTML5 growth/decline available?
I would expect that Flash - like any other technology - will eventually go down the history lane, but I doubt HTML5 will be responsible; completely new technology will emerge, sooner or later. HTML5, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes into black hole before Flash.
The solutions to all you mention are a bit too slow in coming I agree, never the less the best way to force the development is to remove the crutches and try to stand without Flash, painful as it may be for a while.
The video wars continue. H.264, Ogg, WebM...Flash. Everyone wants video and no one want ads.
Ghostery along with Click2Flash and you are all set on the Mac.
Advertisers are basically lazy. They won't spend the effort to develop both a Flash ad and an HTML5 version. Once they convert to HTML5 ads, then Flash will subside. Hopefully Ghostery will still be able to kill them. Unfortunately HTML5 ads will pollute iOS without something similar for Mobile Safari.
By need I'm not referring to some lame applet, but something that hinders my work in general. Bottom line is that (worthwhile) sites want to make cash and/or serve all of their customers equally. In the past year I've seen Flash dwindle like mad.
When people running iOS are more likely to spend, alienating them -- even if a minority, is something smart businesses will avoid. Flash came at a time when animated GIFs were the most exciting looking thing on a page. It filled a void in a half-assed sort of way. When someone manages to port an entire OS to JavaScript we can say free tools are much more advanced than 15 years ago. In case some of you missed it, Linux was ported to JavaScript. Can Flash do that?
There's more cross platform awareness amongst developers nowadays. Amongst the tech savvy MacBooks seem to be in every other person's lap. Most developers have at least toyed with Linux and keep its existence in the back of their minds.
The writing is on the wall for Flash. Bringing it to Android is a great way to make iOS look better after it eats battery life, processor power, creates heat, and flat out works like shit since it's been a mouse and keyboard controlled environment since its conception.
Is the Adobe CEO anything but a Troll at this point? If he really believes what he is saying, he should be fired. Actually he should be fired either way. Wow. Maybe he could take the job at RIM.
Let's not talk about RIM Jobs...
But Adobe has always been wrong about Flash, and everyone loses because of it. Apple had the courage to stand up and say NO, this terrible CPU/battery hog is holding back great devices from coming to market...what's more, other technologies already exist to easily replace it.
Adobe fires back with, what do you mean replace Flash? It's been a cash cow for us, and is delivering 80% of video on the web! You can't replace Flash. You'll just have to suffer through poor performance and lack of innovation because our product "won".
Guess again. Consumers proved that they want new products (shocker) instead of more of the same. Who could have seen that coming? Oh, Apple...and anyone with common sense.
I think back and laugh so hard at the thought of people who said they'd never buy an iPhone or iPad because they couldn't go to their usual free website and play free flash games. Meanwhile, every game out there is available free or cheap through the App Store, and it's a full screen touch game, rather than a tiny game square amid an entire page of ad links.