It's not about iPad 2 having a flaw or selling like hot cakes.
It's about Apple working to a Christmas release date for iPads. They need a warm update of the iPad2 in September/October for the Christmas market - exactly the same as iPods. They need to work on Christmas releases for iPads as soon as they can.
This is a good point, if they really want to do iPads and IPhones once a year each, and 6 months apart then it makes more sense to put the iPad in the pre christmas refresh - because the iPhone isn't so highly seasonal as products like the iPod or iPad that don't come with a contract. So at some point they'll need to switch the two around.
There is no earthly reason for Apple to offer a revised iPad 2 at this stage. As soon as you start interrupting replacement cycles with unexpected product updates, you risk consumer inertia with people postponing purchase because they believe the next model is just around the corner. Apple has more to lose than to gain by introducing a new version of the iPad 2 now.
Actually the exact opposite of this is true. DUCY?
This is a good point, if they really want to do iPads and IPhones once a year each, and 6 months apart then it makes more sense to put the iPad in the pre christmas refresh - because the iPhone isn't so highly seasonal as products like the iPod or iPad that don't come with a contract. So at some point they'll need to switch the two around.
I'd think it would go the other way. iPods and iPhone for holidays, and iPad 6 months later. The Touch and iPhone are a lot closer than the Touch and iPad.
September looks to be a loaded as it is with iPhone 5 and iOS 5. Announcing the iPad 2+ might steal limelight and would be, as others mentioned, a bit uncharacteristic of apple.
So i'm leaning toward no new iPad release - but the synching up the release schedule with holiday shopping season makes a whole lot of sense to me.
synching up the release schedule with holiday shopping season makes a whole lot of sense to me.
I think that Apple's products trump Christmas and Apple does not need to worry about any so called holiday season.
When Apple comes out with a new product that is great, people are going to want it and they are going to buy it no matter when it is released during the year.
Many people who look forward to holiday sales are the kind of people that would beat each other up, kill each other, cause a stampede, all while waiting in line for hours in front of a store to grab a crappy large screen LCD TV that some chain store is selling for a few dollars cheaper.
This is not the kind of people that Apple needs to worry about or cater to.
"Apple was immediately faced with supply constraints, though those have since eased" - eased my ass! Try buying one in Asia, it is still very hard to get one. You have to get on a waiting list (one month wait), or wait in long lines to buy one IF they got a shipment, and they aren't available on the online Apple store in China or Hong Kong.
That is if they are going to sync up iPad releases with the rest of the "I" devices line up.
The number one thing is that it puts a very desirable consumer item into the market just before the holiday shopping season. September is early enough that early adopters get taken care of yet you have plenty of time to fill channels for November/December. So this could be a sync up to have new technology entering the marketplace at the ideal time to serve the mass market.
The next issue is that having a clean slate in late winter early spring would be good because Apple often introduces new hardware in this time frame.
It is a mistake to believe Apple doesn't have any competition. You might not like or appreciate the competition but that does not mean it does exist. Remember in late fall it is expected that vastly improved SoC will be available to Android & WebOS tablet builders. It might seem inelegant to an Apple user but WebOS can be greatly improved via the brute force application of CPU power.
If you are an old 3G iPhone user Apple pretty much took the brute force approach with iOS at a lesser scale. Devices after the 3G had a massive impact on usability due to faster processors and more RAM. HP could easily take this approach to address TouchPad performance issues.
There is a cost associated with everything a company does.
Flaws have nothing to do with it. It isn't a question of iPad 2 being good or bad, often decissions are made based on goals not expressed publically. Goals that might not even be obvious to us.
Sales are extremely strong, but again that has absolutely nothing to do with an iPad 3 debuting in the fall. Remember we are talking about business here. Decisions are made after determining how a bunch of conflicting interests will impact the change up.
From Apple perspective one positive outcome of a brand new shinny iPad in the fall is the slugging of the competition that is trying to get on it's feet. Think of it as a fighter about to throw a knock out punch. Beyond that the competition can become far mire viable with better hardware, so a performance boost could be seen as a defensive move.
On top of all of that having a low cost and a high end model will broaden the appeal of iPad. Think about it a bit, if Apple could slot in the low end iPad 2 at under $450 and then offer significant improvements for the high end they could corral even more customers. More importantly they can make the tablet business unprofitable for many manufactures.
Business is all hardball. If you want to stay in business you have to be willing to bruise the competition.
That would be interesting if a new one came out so soon. I wouldn't doubt it so Apple can maintain their technological advantage. They have the funds for R&D to have 2 or more generations in the works at one time testing new hardware and writing-up new patent applications.
I just bought Kindle as I like that for reading. The Kindle has a browser built-in was isn't too bad actually. There's promise that ePaper may be the displays of the future that could compete with today's models for video etc. That may be 5-10 years down the line but promises battery life of 1 to 2 months. We'll see.
Wouldn't a device like this cost just about as much as a entry-level MacBook Air and that's assuming the Air doesn't come down much in price as SSDs become more affordable.
There really isn't a slot to fit in a deluxe version of the iPad between the current iPad and the Air.
I agree with the consensus, but would like to add a few points to the discussion.
Does this analyst understand the reason companies release new or upgraded products?
There is a perception that companies immediately release new technology as soon as it's available for the altriustic benefit of everyone—this is rarely true.
The drivers of th upgrade cycle are primarily:
to stimulate growth in sales
to gain or maintain market share (especially in a highly competitive environment)
consolidate manufacturing processes (make things cheaper to make)
brand maintenance (create the perception that the company produces relevant products or addresses concerns existing products)
Although you could be forgiven for assuming that being on the cutting edge guarantees success, releasing updates too frequently can also have negative impacts.
Because manufacturing costs decrease over time and Apple does not adjust prices Apple makes more money on products that are sold late in their life cycle. The longer a products saleable lifespan can be extended the less it eats into profits unnecessarily. I'm sure there is a neat equation where sales over time drops to a point that the profit from a new product would be. Also this is somewhat contentious, many customers consider that there is an implied promise that a product purchased on release day will remain the "latest and greatest" for an unspecified, but almost universally understood, period of time. Every Apple product entitles the owner to sit in a cafe with their device, order a tall, mochalattachino on soy and gloat. Consumers want as little of this as possible.
Considering the proximity to the iPad 2 release—which is still experiencing ongoing distribution constraints— and Apple’s dominant market position relative to the paltry challenge posed by the haphazard android clones (An assumption based upon my admittedly limited use of android, which I found to be laggy and unresponsive) there are too few reasons for Apple to change their market proposition this soon.
"This is the year of the iPad 2." Not, plus, not 3, 2. 2 Only! "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2."
Ladies and Germs - Leonardo Dicaprio as Howard Hughes!
I'd think it would go the other way. iPods and iPhone for holidays, and iPad 6 months later. The Touch and iPhone are a lot closer than the Touch and iPad.
But iPhones aren't a strong seasonally influenced sale and iPods (which are) aren't a huge seller anymore. The iPod Touch is arguably just as much a small iPad as it is an iPhone with no voice - so they could pair it the other way.
That would also make sense if they were still considering the possibility of a tweener sized iPod to kill off any possible competition from 7inch tablets.
Considering the proximity to the iPad 2 release?which is still experiencing ongoing distribution constraints? and Apple?s dominant market position relative to the paltry challenge posed by the haphazard android clones (An assumption based upon my admittedly limited use of android, which I found to be laggy and unresponsive) there are too few reasons for Apple to change their market proposition this soon.
You're not thinking far enough ahead. If they don't update the iPad in October then their next good release opportunity isn't till Feb, or perhaps even March. November and December are too late to hit christmas properly and would destroy their iPad-2 holiday sales without providing decent new sales. Jan and Feb people are generally not keen on making big expensive purchases, so they would waste the free publicity that an Apple release would generate.
Android makers aren't as constrained by these factors as they know they won't have to deal with a huge run-away success from day one and they don't get anything like as much PR from their launches.
So Apple has to consider the state of the market in March12 when deciding if to aim a release at Oct11. Which is pretty much the reason that they released the iPod photo in October after releasing the 4G in the July, even though the iPod was already the market leader by miles at that point.
You're not thinking far enough ahead. If they don't update the iPad in October then their next good release opportunity isn't till Feb, or perhaps even March. November and December are too late to hit christmas properly and would destroy their iPad-2 holiday sales without providing decent new sales. Jan and Feb people are generally not keen on making big expensive purchases, so they would waste the free publicity that an Apple release would generate.
Android makers aren't as constrained by these factors as they know they won't have to deal with a huge run-away success from day one and they don't get anything like as much PR from their launches.
So Apple has to consider the state of the market in March12 when deciding if to aim a release at Oct11. Which is pretty much the reason that they released the iPod photo in October after releasing the 4G in the July, even though the iPod was already the market leader by miles at that point.
But that's the purpose of the iPad 3 next year, to ensure sales in the post-Christmas quarter. If they update in October then they have to update sometime in March or April to keep sales ticking over... But really not that any of that is an issue, demand for iPhone and iPad still far outstrip supply. The seasonal sales of Macs and iPods used to be what drove Apple product releases but the iPhone and iPad are blockbusters all year round, once you take the global rollout into place.
I think this iPad 2+ or iPad 3 in October is coming from three streams of rumours.
One stream is that there actually no new features, Apple is simply engaging a larger number or a different set of component suppliers to try and hit 6-9 million iPads a month. The waves that Apple is causing in procuring ever more components could be misconstrued as a new or different product.
The second stream is that maybe, and this could be the only reason Apple would do it this year, is that they have lined up suppliers that can deliver newer spec components at higher volumes hence Apple is going to update the iPad 2 as well in line with these newer spec components. For example, it is conceivable that there is more supply of newer spec components because the industry is ramping up production of that rather than older spec components.
The caveat is that how in the world would higher-res screens be more highly available than the current screens. Hence the third possible stream of these rumours is that if the screens are the constraint, then adding another screen supplier for the higher res screens would increase iPad capacity. Somehow this would mean that rather than Supplier B making the same stuff as Supplier A to boost iPad production, Supplier B is actually making the higher-res screens, perhaps because they've been gearing their manufacturing for the higher-res screens for several months now and were never prepared to make the lower-res screens.
Thinner. Lighter. Faster. Stronger (sales). To the tune of Daft Punk
New iPhones. New iPads. I think it's my wallet that's going to be thinner and lighter.
I'm starting to think it will be a miracle if I am able to resist the iPhone 5 in October. Just got my 2-year contract iPhone 4 in September last year. Equivalent of US $65 per month including the iPhone 4 32GB, and capped calls and data. That's ~US $1,500 total over two years for an iPhone 4 with carrier service! And this plan is one of the cheaper ones with the less "premier" telco in my country! \
Anyways... if it is just an iPhone 4S with minor modifications, then I should be able to skip an Apple product for once and finally get my Xbox.
Comments
It's not about iPad 2 having a flaw or selling like hot cakes.
It's about Apple working to a Christmas release date for iPads. They need a warm update of the iPad2 in September/October for the Christmas market - exactly the same as iPods. They need to work on Christmas releases for iPads as soon as they can.
This is a good point, if they really want to do iPads and IPhones once a year each, and 6 months apart then it makes more sense to put the iPad in the pre christmas refresh - because the iPhone isn't so highly seasonal as products like the iPod or iPad that don't come with a contract. So at some point they'll need to switch the two around.
There is no earthly reason for Apple to offer a revised iPad 2 at this stage. As soon as you start interrupting replacement cycles with unexpected product updates, you risk consumer inertia with people postponing purchase because they believe the next model is just around the corner. Apple has more to lose than to gain by introducing a new version of the iPad 2 now.
Actually the exact opposite of this is true. DUCY?
This is a good point, if they really want to do iPads and IPhones once a year each, and 6 months apart then it makes more sense to put the iPad in the pre christmas refresh - because the iPhone isn't so highly seasonal as products like the iPod or iPad that don't come with a contract. So at some point they'll need to switch the two around.
I'd think it would go the other way. iPods and iPhone for holidays, and iPad 6 months later. The Touch and iPhone are a lot closer than the Touch and iPad.
So i'm leaning toward no new iPad release - but the synching up the release schedule with holiday shopping season makes a whole lot of sense to me.
synching up the release schedule with holiday shopping season makes a whole lot of sense to me.
I think that Apple's products trump Christmas and Apple does not need to worry about any so called holiday season.
When Apple comes out with a new product that is great, people are going to want it and they are going to buy it no matter when it is released during the year.
Many people who look forward to holiday sales are the kind of people that would beat each other up, kill each other, cause a stampede, all while waiting in line for hours in front of a store to grab a crappy large screen LCD TV that some chain store is selling for a few dollars cheaper.
This is not the kind of people that Apple needs to worry about or cater to.
That is if they are going to sync up iPad releases with the rest of the "I" devices line up.
The number one thing is that it puts a very desirable consumer item into the market just before the holiday shopping season. September is early enough that early adopters get taken care of yet you have plenty of time to fill channels for November/December. So this could be a sync up to have new technology entering the marketplace at the ideal time to serve the mass market.
The next issue is that having a clean slate in late winter early spring would be good because Apple often introduces new hardware in this time frame.
It is a mistake to believe Apple doesn't have any competition. You might not like or appreciate the competition but that does not mean it does exist. Remember in late fall it is expected that vastly improved SoC will be available to Android & WebOS tablet builders. It might seem inelegant to an Apple user but WebOS can be greatly improved via the brute force application of CPU power.
If you are an old 3G iPhone user Apple pretty much took the brute force approach with iOS at a lesser scale. Devices after the 3G had a massive impact on usability due to faster processors and more RAM. HP could easily take this approach to address TouchPad performance issues.
There is a cost associated with everything a company does.
Flaws have nothing to do with it. It isn't a question of iPad 2 being good or bad, often decissions are made based on goals not expressed publically. Goals that might not even be obvious to us.
Sales are extremely strong, but again that has absolutely nothing to do with an iPad 3 debuting in the fall. Remember we are talking about business here. Decisions are made after determining how a bunch of conflicting interests will impact the change up.
From Apple perspective one positive outcome of a brand new shinny iPad in the fall is the slugging of the competition that is trying to get on it's feet. Think of it as a fighter about to throw a knock out punch. Beyond that the competition can become far mire viable with better hardware, so a performance boost could be seen as a defensive move.
On top of all of that having a low cost and a high end model will broaden the appeal of iPad. Think about it a bit, if Apple could slot in the low end iPad 2 at under $450 and then offer significant improvements for the high end they could corral even more customers. More importantly they can make the tablet business unprofitable for many manufactures.
Business is all hardball. If you want to stay in business you have to be willing to bruise the competition.
Good Post
I just bought Kindle as I like that for reading. The Kindle has a browser built-in was isn't too bad actually. There's promise that ePaper may be the displays of the future that could compete with today's models for video etc. That may be 5-10 years down the line but promises battery life of 1 to 2 months. We'll see.
This is a rumor I'm truly tired of hearing.
You and me both. Well, as they say in the blog game... "it's all about the clicks".
There really isn't a slot to fit in a deluxe version of the iPad between the current iPad and the Air.
Does this analyst understand the reason companies release new or upgraded products?
There is a perception that companies immediately release new technology as soon as it's available for the altriustic benefit of everyone—this is rarely true.
The drivers of th upgrade cycle are primarily:
- to stimulate growth in sales
- to gain or maintain market share (especially in a highly competitive environment)
- consolidate manufacturing processes (make things cheaper to make)
- brand maintenance (create the perception that the company produces relevant products or addresses concerns existing products)
Although you could be forgiven for assuming that being on the cutting edge guarantees success, releasing updates too frequently can also have negative impacts.Because manufacturing costs decrease over time and Apple does not adjust prices Apple makes more money on products that are sold late in their life cycle. The longer a products saleable lifespan can be extended the less it eats into profits unnecessarily. I'm sure there is a neat equation where sales over time drops to a point that the profit from a new product would be. Also this is somewhat contentious, many customers consider that there is an implied promise that a product purchased on release day will remain the "latest and greatest" for an unspecified, but almost universally understood, period of time. Every Apple product entitles the owner to sit in a cafe with their device, order a tall, mochalattachino on soy and gloat. Consumers want as little of this as possible.
Considering the proximity to the iPad 2 release—which is still experiencing ongoing distribution constraints— and Apple’s dominant market position relative to the paltry challenge posed by the haphazard android clones (An assumption based upon my admittedly limited use of android, which I found to be laggy and unresponsive) there are too few reasons for Apple to change their market proposition this soon.
"This is the year of the iPad 2." Not, plus, not 3, 2. 2 Only! "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2." "This is the year of the iPad 2."
Ladies and Germs - Leonardo Dicaprio as Howard Hughes!
I'd think it would go the other way. iPods and iPhone for holidays, and iPad 6 months later. The Touch and iPhone are a lot closer than the Touch and iPad.
But iPhones aren't a strong seasonally influenced sale and iPods (which are) aren't a huge seller anymore. The iPod Touch is arguably just as much a small iPad as it is an iPhone with no voice - so they could pair it the other way.
That would also make sense if they were still considering the possibility of a tweener sized iPod to kill off any possible competition from 7inch tablets.
Considering the proximity to the iPad 2 release?which is still experiencing ongoing distribution constraints? and Apple?s dominant market position relative to the paltry challenge posed by the haphazard android clones (An assumption based upon my admittedly limited use of android, which I found to be laggy and unresponsive) there are too few reasons for Apple to change their market proposition this soon.
You're not thinking far enough ahead. If they don't update the iPad in October then their next good release opportunity isn't till Feb, or perhaps even March. November and December are too late to hit christmas properly and would destroy their iPad-2 holiday sales without providing decent new sales. Jan and Feb people are generally not keen on making big expensive purchases, so they would waste the free publicity that an Apple release would generate.
Android makers aren't as constrained by these factors as they know they won't have to deal with a huge run-away success from day one and they don't get anything like as much PR from their launches.
So Apple has to consider the state of the market in March12 when deciding if to aim a release at Oct11. Which is pretty much the reason that they released the iPod photo in October after releasing the 4G in the July, even though the iPod was already the market leader by miles at that point.
You're not thinking far enough ahead. If they don't update the iPad in October then their next good release opportunity isn't till Feb, or perhaps even March. November and December are too late to hit christmas properly and would destroy their iPad-2 holiday sales without providing decent new sales. Jan and Feb people are generally not keen on making big expensive purchases, so they would waste the free publicity that an Apple release would generate.
Android makers aren't as constrained by these factors as they know they won't have to deal with a huge run-away success from day one and they don't get anything like as much PR from their launches.
So Apple has to consider the state of the market in March12 when deciding if to aim a release at Oct11. Which is pretty much the reason that they released the iPod photo in October after releasing the 4G in the July, even though the iPod was already the market leader by miles at that point.
But that's the purpose of the iPad 3 next year, to ensure sales in the post-Christmas quarter. If they update in October then they have to update sometime in March or April to keep sales ticking over... But really not that any of that is an issue, demand for iPhone and iPad still far outstrip supply. The seasonal sales of Macs and iPods used to be what drove Apple product releases but the iPhone and iPad are blockbusters all year round, once you take the global rollout into place.
I think this iPad 2+ or iPad 3 in October is coming from three streams of rumours.
One stream is that there actually no new features, Apple is simply engaging a larger number or a different set of component suppliers to try and hit 6-9 million iPads a month. The waves that Apple is causing in procuring ever more components could be misconstrued as a new or different product.
The second stream is that maybe, and this could be the only reason Apple would do it this year, is that they have lined up suppliers that can deliver newer spec components at higher volumes hence Apple is going to update the iPad 2 as well in line with these newer spec components. For example, it is conceivable that there is more supply of newer spec components because the industry is ramping up production of that rather than older spec components.
The caveat is that how in the world would higher-res screens be more highly available than the current screens. Hence the third possible stream of these rumours is that if the screens are the constraint, then adding another screen supplier for the higher res screens would increase iPad capacity. Somehow this would mean that rather than Supplier B making the same stuff as Supplier A to boost iPad production, Supplier B is actually making the higher-res screens, perhaps because they've been gearing their manufacturing for the higher-res screens for several months now and were never prepared to make the lower-res screens.
Thinner. Lighter. Faster. Stronger (sales). To the tune of Daft Punk
New iPhones. New iPads. I think it's my wallet that's going to be thinner and lighter.
Anyways... if it is just an iPhone 4S with minor modifications, then I should be able to skip an Apple product for once and finally get my Xbox.
Anyways... if it is just an iPhone 4S with minor modifications, then I should be able to skip an Apple product for once and finally get my Xbox.
We're pretty close to the point where an iPhone may have more power than an XBox
This might be an additional, more expensive iPad2, while the existing iPad2s continue to be sold as is.
Maybe iPad 2 Pro with bigger screen - say A4 size. That would truly be a "post PC device".
Maybe iPad 2 Pro with bigger screen - say A4 size. That would truly be a "post PC device".
No. It wouldn't. The current iPad is fine.