Yes, they are precisely that. If you can't even beat the conservative street consensus for earnings, then that is spelled B-A-D, and it doesn't matter if the company is Apple or GE or Intel or anybody else.
You're missing one point. Apple's guidance was $25 M in revenues and $5 EPS. They told the Street that it would be a slow quarter. So they actually beat their revenue guidance by 10% and EPS by 40%. It's not their fault that analysts are idiots.
Furthermore, with Apple's track record, it's ridiculous to panic over one quarter - especially when Apple said it would be slow and had reasons for it. At that point, you're no longer an analyst or investor, you're a day trader.
Probably not. Still learning. I made the mistake of getting caught up in estimates, when for my own investing purposes, I always knew this quarter would be lower than last quarter before the monster in Jan.
Got to this week and let myself betray my good senses by holding on through the earnings call. That's no knock on Apple's quarter, thats just understanding that the market is emotional entity that reacts predictably in SOME cases. This was one of them.
In the end we all know where apple will be in early 2012, I just missed a little opportunity to cash in on peoples poor judgements tonight and tomorrow and certainly in Late Nov-Dec. End of the day I should be sitting at a 300% gain. Not going to bang my head against the wall because it wasn't 400-500%.
To be honest though, I am now a bit worried in that Apple has set the bar ridiculously high in guidence for next quarters results, and I now may have to reconsider whether I will sell before or after the earnings in Jan.
Yes, there always seems to be a dip after earning calls regardless of the numbers. People like you cashing in I guess
Guidance was 25 billion revenue, EPS $5.5. Sequentially iPhone sales were down because of the transition as they predicted.
Guidance for next quarter was given at 37 Billion! Personally I expected a huge quarter, the best they will have ever had to date, but I don't know that they could beat that by very much, if at all.
If analysts run wild with THOSE numbers, no way am I holding onto my calls through next quarters earnings calls.
I agree with your point that the EPS is a clear miss relative to expectations. (Apple also does not do mid-quarter expectations-management with WS like many companies do, and they may lost an opportunity to talk things down; but there are pros and cons to doing that....).
But care to explain the point about the 'global economy'? What specifically about the global economy 'finally reached' Apple?
Apple seemed to be immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations (often by a lot). Weak consumer spending was bound to cut into Apple's growth rates somewhere, some time. Maybe it has here and now. Growing earnings at 50% a year is tough to sustain when global GDP growth is in single digits. First reaction, anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Agreed. After the dust settles there might be a buying opportunity... I'm quite sure that the holiday quarter will be on target, considering that this was mainly an iPhone miss and the iPad2 seems to still be selling quite well.
[on edit: margins were still very good]
Yes on margins. That and the guidance for next quarter are silver linings.
I don't do buying opportunities, at least not on AAPL. I already have way too much.
Yes, there always seems to be a dip after earning calls regardless of the numbers. People like you cashing in I guess
Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.
With a market like this its bound to go down and up a few times in between earnings. Wait until the Fed Budget Cut talks heat up this winter (among plenty of other news as well). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see apple at $370 around Nov-Dec.
I think it has more to do with the very long update time for the new iPhone and everybody in the world knew that a new one was right around the corner, so understandably, more people are going to hold off on buying the old one that was soon to be replaced.
You're missing one point. Apple's guidance was $25 M in revenues and $5 EPS. They told the Street that it would be a slow quarter. So they actually beat their revenue guidance by 10% and EPS by 40%. It's not their fault that analysts are idiots.
Furthermore, with Apple's track record, it's ridiculous to panic over one quarter - especially when Apple said it would be slow and had reasons for it. At that point, you're no longer an analyst or investor, you're a day trader.
I haven't missed that. No company impresses investors by beating their own guidance, and not especially Apple, which as you know, has always guided very low.
Who's panicing? This quarterly report is a disappointment. It really can't be sliced or diced any other way. I don't see the point of denying reality. As an investor I have to gut it out and move on.
Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.
With a market like this its bound to go down and up a few times in between earnings. Wait until the Fed Budget Cut talks heat up this winter (among plenty of other news as well). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see apple at $370 around Nov-Dec.
But I fully expect them to be past $450 in Jan.
I think $370 is being very optimistic. I see AAPL going much lower than $370 (albeit slowly) over the next couple of months.
I think it has more to do with the very long update time for the new iPhone and everybody in the world knew that a new one was right around the corner, so understandably, more people are going to hold off on buying the old one that was soon to be replaced.
Could be. The conference call should be interesting.
...and the stock is down on this news. Meanwhile, Amazon is trading at a P/E ratio of 107, more than 6 times that of AAPL. Do we think that Amazon's profits will be up more than 300% this quarter?
No, Amazon will not be able to match expected revenue with a P/E of 107., but Wall Street does not care. They will continue to allow Amazon shares to rise and continue to outperform Apple shares easily. Amazon is one of Wall Street's sweetheart stocks. Their numbers aren't even close to Apple's but there are probably a lot of influential investors in Amazon and they're getting a free pass.
Apparently somebody feels that Jeff Bezos can do no wrong despite the company being priced above perfection. Other than being protected by some faction on Wall Street, I can't possibly see how Amazon keeps beating Apple quarter after quarter. Apple P/E continues to shrink while Amazon's P/E continues to expand. I've seen Amazon miss numbers, drop and in a week be back up roaring with plenty of momentum. It seems fishy to me, but hey, what do I know.
Could be. The conference call should be interesting.
Conference call is over. Tim confirmed a few times that the iphone was the transition they referred to and they expected an even larger dip in iphone sales than they ended up with.
Conference call is over. Tim confirmed a few times that the iphone was the transition they referred to and they expected an even larger dip in iphone sales than they ended up with.
Just read that myself. We'll have to let that sink in for awhile and see what happens.
Just read that myself. We'll have to let that sink in for awhile and see what happens.
As I already siad in this thread, I'm still trying to let Apples estimates for Q1 sink in. That's what is still blowing my mind and I read it almost an hour ago.
The real story: Apple is now a $100+ billion / year revenue company and its profits for the fiscal year that just ended ($26 billion) are in the top 20 of all time record annual profits by a company in the history of mankind. Apple is now in the realm of oil companies when it comes to profitability. They've left the tech industry far, far behind.
As I already siad in this thread, I'm still trying to let Apples estimates for Q1 sink in. That's what is still blowing my mind and I read it almost an hour ago.
Q1 is always the strongest of the year, so this needs to be compared YoY not sequentially. I haven't got a handle on those numbers myself. If you find them please post. If they really have guided confidently for next quarter it could mitigate some of the sour taste left over from this one.
Comments
Yes, they are precisely that. If you can't even beat the conservative street consensus for earnings, then that is spelled B-A-D, and it doesn't matter if the company is Apple or GE or Intel or anybody else.
You're missing one point. Apple's guidance was $25 M in revenues and $5 EPS. They told the Street that it would be a slow quarter. So they actually beat their revenue guidance by 10% and EPS by 40%. It's not their fault that analysts are idiots.
Furthermore, with Apple's track record, it's ridiculous to panic over one quarter - especially when Apple said it would be slow and had reasons for it. At that point, you're no longer an analyst or investor, you're a day trader.
Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple.
The economy is about buying and selling goods and services. It doesn't have to be how much you sell but just that you sell.
love how the headline ignores the big miss (first in 4 years) in expected EPS and iPhone sales.
Guidance was 25 billion revenue, EPS $5.5. Sequentially iPhone sales were down because of the transition as they predicted.
Probably not. Still learning. I made the mistake of getting caught up in estimates, when for my own investing purposes, I always knew this quarter would be lower than last quarter before the monster in Jan.
Got to this week and let myself betray my good senses by holding on through the earnings call. That's no knock on Apple's quarter, thats just understanding that the market is emotional entity that reacts predictably in SOME cases. This was one of them.
In the end we all know where apple will be in early 2012, I just missed a little opportunity to cash in on peoples poor judgements tonight and tomorrow and certainly in Late Nov-Dec. End of the day I should be sitting at a 300% gain. Not going to bang my head against the wall because it wasn't 400-500%.
To be honest though, I am now a bit worried in that Apple has set the bar ridiculously high in guidence for next quarters results, and I now may have to reconsider whether I will sell before or after the earnings in Jan.
Yes, there always seems to be a dip after earning calls regardless of the numbers. People like you cashing in I guess
Guidance was 25 billion revenue, EPS $5.5. Sequentially iPhone sales were down because of the transition as they predicted.
Guidance for next quarter was given at 37 Billion! Personally I expected a huge quarter, the best they will have ever had to date, but I don't know that they could beat that by very much, if at all.
If analysts run wild with THOSE numbers, no way am I holding onto my calls through next quarters earnings calls.
I agree with your point that the EPS is a clear miss relative to expectations. (Apple also does not do mid-quarter expectations-management with WS like many companies do, and they may lost an opportunity to talk things down; but there are pros and cons to doing that....).
But care to explain the point about the 'global economy'? What specifically about the global economy 'finally reached' Apple?
Apple seemed to be immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations (often by a lot). Weak consumer spending was bound to cut into Apple's growth rates somewhere, some time. Maybe it has here and now. Growing earnings at 50% a year is tough to sustain when global GDP growth is in single digits. First reaction, anyway.
Agreed. After the dust settles there might be a buying opportunity... I'm quite sure that the holiday quarter will be on target, considering that this was mainly an iPhone miss and the iPad2 seems to still be selling quite well.
[on edit: margins were still very good]
Yes on margins. That and the guidance for next quarter are silver linings.
I don't do buying opportunities, at least not on AAPL. I already have way too much.
Yes, there always seems to be a dip after earning calls regardless of the numbers. People like you cashing in I guess
Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.
With a market like this its bound to go down and up a few times in between earnings. Wait until the Fed Budget Cut talks heat up this winter (among plenty of other news as well). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see apple at $370 around Nov-Dec.
But I fully expect them to be past $450 in Jan.
Maybe it has here and now.
I think it has more to do with the very long update time for the new iPhone and everybody in the world knew that a new one was right around the corner, so understandably, more people are going to hold off on buying the old one that was soon to be replaced.
You're missing one point. Apple's guidance was $25 M in revenues and $5 EPS. They told the Street that it would be a slow quarter. So they actually beat their revenue guidance by 10% and EPS by 40%. It's not their fault that analysts are idiots.
Furthermore, with Apple's track record, it's ridiculous to panic over one quarter - especially when Apple said it would be slow and had reasons for it. At that point, you're no longer an analyst or investor, you're a day trader.
I haven't missed that. No company impresses investors by beating their own guidance, and not especially Apple, which as you know, has always guided very low.
Who's panicing? This quarterly report is a disappointment. It really can't be sliced or diced any other way. I don't see the point of denying reality. As an investor I have to gut it out and move on.
Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.
With a market like this its bound to go down and up a few times in between earnings. Wait until the Fed Budget Cut talks heat up this winter (among plenty of other news as well). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see apple at $370 around Nov-Dec.
But I fully expect them to be past $450 in Jan.
I think $370 is being very optimistic. I see AAPL going much lower than $370 (albeit slowly) over the next couple of months.
I think it has more to do with the very long update time for the new iPhone and everybody in the world knew that a new one was right around the corner, so understandably, more people are going to hold off on buying the old one that was soon to be replaced.
Could be. The conference call should be interesting.
I think $370 is being very optimistic. I see AAPL going much lower than $370 (albeit slowly) over the next couple of months.
MUCH lower? Not sure about that. It would take a big run of bad world news to drive apple back below $350, which is what you seem to be implying.
...and the stock is down on this news. Meanwhile, Amazon is trading at a P/E ratio of 107, more than 6 times that of AAPL. Do we think that Amazon's profits will be up more than 300% this quarter?
No, Amazon will not be able to match expected revenue with a P/E of 107., but Wall Street does not care. They will continue to allow Amazon shares to rise and continue to outperform Apple shares easily. Amazon is one of Wall Street's sweetheart stocks. Their numbers aren't even close to Apple's but there are probably a lot of influential investors in Amazon and they're getting a free pass.
Apparently somebody feels that Jeff Bezos can do no wrong despite the company being priced above perfection. Other than being protected by some faction on Wall Street, I can't possibly see how Amazon keeps beating Apple quarter after quarter. Apple P/E continues to shrink while Amazon's P/E continues to expand. I've seen Amazon miss numbers, drop and in a week be back up roaring with plenty of momentum. It seems fishy to me, but hey, what do I know.
Could be. The conference call should be interesting.
Conference call is over. Tim confirmed a few times that the iphone was the transition they referred to and they expected an even larger dip in iphone sales than they ended up with.
Well, now all we need is an Andy Zaky article to 'splain all this away...
That Andy Zaky is a muppet,I knew something was up when I saw his high EPS.
MUCH lower? Not sure about that. It would take a big run of bad world news to drive apple back below $350, which is what you seem to be implying.
We'll see.
Conference call is over. Tim confirmed a few times that the iphone was the transition they referred to and they expected an even larger dip in iphone sales than they ended up with.
Just read that myself. We'll have to let that sink in for awhile and see what happens.
Just read that myself. We'll have to let that sink in for awhile and see what happens.
As I already siad in this thread, I'm still trying to let Apples estimates for Q1 sink in. That's what is still blowing my mind and I read it almost an hour ago.
As I already siad in this thread, I'm still trying to let Apples estimates for Q1 sink in. That's what is still blowing my mind and I read it almost an hour ago.
Q1 is always the strongest of the year, so this needs to be compared YoY not sequentially. I haven't got a handle on those numbers myself. If you find them please post. If they really have guided confidently for next quarter it could mitigate some of the sour taste left over from this one.