People should remember that the stock price's value takes into account all available information at the time. Leading up to the estimates, the stock was higher because people valued it that highly on certain assumptions regarding the coming earnings announcements. After the hard numbers come in, the stock price is revalued by the collective market based on the new information.
So its a disappointment in regards to expected performance compared to actual performance.
This isn't always connected to real world results. From a business standpoint, Apple is continuing to do insanely well, weathering the economy and continuing to grow at a break neck rate. So from a business/strategic outlook, Apple is not disappointing, nor is this signaling a downward spiral.
Put simply, Apple did incredibly well, just not as incredibly well as shareholders predicted.
In a way it makes sense; every quarter, analysts are continually conservative, and Apple blows them away. Continuing to shatter expectations is not sustainable; eventually, expectations will be adapted. This time, the pendulum swung top far, but it is approaching more of an equilibrium.
Q1 is always the strongest of the year, so this needs to be compared YoY not sequentially. I haven't got a handle on those numbers myself. If you find them please post. If they really have guided confidently for next quarter it could mitigate some of the sour taste left over from this one.
I already did earlier, they projected a revenue of $37 Billion and EPS of more than $9 per share!
Apple seemed to be immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations (often by a lot).
That's a weird spin on global growth: Wall Street expectations based on whisper numbers based on a company's high double-digit increases in revenue and profits (which could come from a combination of market growth, market share growth, and cost-cutting) somehow provides a clue as to the impact on the bottom line from an economy that is growing in the low single-digits!?
Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.
You're long (long-dated) call options, not the stock, and yet you think "it's a little different" in terms of the return on your position when the underlying asset price drops!?
Okay, well that's still a conservative projection, amounting to less than the 54% growth we saw in this YoY quarter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
That's a weird spin on global growth: Wall Street expectations based on whisper numbers based on a company's high double-digit increases in revenue and profits (which could come from a combination of market growth, market share growth, and cost-cutting) somehow provides a clue as to the impact on the bottom line from an economy that is growing in the low single-digits!?
A real stretch, I'd say.
Spin or stretch? Make up your mind.
Seriously, if a company can grow their earnings by 50% or more in a year when the economy is growing maybe 5% then they've accomplished something major. Which, Apple certainly has -- for several years running. What that's got to do with whisper numbers or anything else you mentioned, I can't really tell.
The real story: Apple is now a $100+ billion / year revenue company and its profits for the fiscal year that just ended ($26 billion) are in the top 20 of all time record annual profits by a company in the history of mankind. Apple is now in the realm of oil companies when it comes to profitability. They've left the tech industry far, far behind.
Yes, it's very impressive, but this was all fully anticipated months ago.
I chose to listen to the earnings call, rather than follow the threads...
I was generally satisfied with the way they presented the results and the reasons for not meeting some expectations.
What really impressed me, though, was the way Tim Cook handled the barrage of questions directed at him.
In prior calls, Tim would field some of the questions, but most were handled by Peter Oppenheimer or Steve when he was present.
Tim got some pretty innocent sounding, difficult questions -- and was able to respond with very concise detailed answers. He appears to have an encyclopedic mind with total recall -- no fumbling around, Err... Ahh... nothing like that.
Tim had the answer he was able to reply immediately.
On the few occasions where strategy questions were asked -- Tim adroitly parried them.
It was an amazing performance -- but it was not an act.
Apple, its shareholders and customers are in good hands.
Seriously, if a company can grow their earnings by 50% or more in a year when the economy is growing maybe 5% then they've accomplished something major. Which, Apple certainly has -- for several years running. What that's got to do with whisper numbers or anything else you mentioned, I can't really tell.
You should be able to tell: after all, you're the one that wrote: "....immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations."
Whose 'expectations' of exactly what were you referring to? What you wrote tells me that you're the one that conflated global growth and expectations.
'Spin or stretch?' One is a subset of the other. Take your pick.
You're long (long-dated) call options, not the stock, and yet you think "it's a little different" in terms of the return on your position when the underlying asset price drops!?
Is it 'better' different or 'worse' different?
Its a little different in the context that was being used. He was stating that the stock price dips after earnings because people like me are selling. I said (essentially) that I own long calls, my selling them is different and does not directly affect the underlying equity price drop.
Of course my position sank by an order of manitude more than the stock did tonight, however I really didn't buy them to sell after Q4. I thought it was a possibility that I would sell them before or after, but the big fish was always next quarter's results.
You should be able to tell: after all, you're the one that wrote: "....immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations."
Whose 'expectations' of exactly what were you referring to? What you wrote tells me that you're the one that conflated global growth and expectations.
'Spin or stretch?' One is a subset of the other. Take your pick.
So? I'm really not following this line of argument.
Apple has managed to plow through some powerful economic headwinds for several years running. Can they continue to do so? Is this earnings report a sign that they can't? That's the question I am asking. I don't pretend to know the answer.
Yes, it's very impressive, but this was all fully anticipated months ago.
It's mind-blowing to me. Apple combines revenue greater than IBM with profits greater than Microsoft and yet the tech media talks about it like it's a fragile start-up that could screw up at any minute. People need to recalibrate.
So? I'm really not following this line of argument.
Apple has managed to plow through some powerful economic headwinds for several years running. Can they continue to do so? Is this earnings report a sign that they can't? That's the question I am asking. I don't pretend to know the answer.
You tell me: you're the one that confidently, unambiguously, in no-uncertain-terms, stated: "Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple."
Now you say you really didn't know that ("I don't pretend to know the answer").
It's mind-blowing to me. Apple combines revenue greater than IBM with profits greater than Microsoft and yet the tech media talks about it like it's a fragile start-up that could screw up at any minute. People need to recalibrate.
Do they? I haven't heard talk like that about Apple from the tech media since circa 2003.
All companies can come up short, even the great ones. You've never any better than your last act.
It's mind-blowing to me. Apple combines revenue greater than IBM with profits greater than Microsoft and yet the tech media talks about it like it's a fragile start-up that could screw up at any minute. People need to recalibrate.
You tell me: you're the one that confidently, unambiguously, in no-uncertain-terms, stated: "Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple."
Now you say you really didn't know that ("I don't pretend to know the answer").
You're not following this.......?
Groan. You really do make me groan out loud sometimes.
I already said that was my first reaction to the numbers. Feel free to discuss the actual subject.
Do they? I haven't heard talk like that about Apple from the tech media since circa 2003.
All companies can come up short, even the great ones. You've never any better than your last act.
Have you been living a cave? The standard story is "can Apple survive new product x?" where x is the latest Android phone or tablet or the TouchPad or any of the other failed tablets, and it hasn't changed. Google is a gnat compared to Apple and gets the "unstoppable behemoth" treatment while Apple is still treated like it could implode at any minute if they make one wrong decision.
Comments
So its a disappointment in regards to expected performance compared to actual performance.
This isn't always connected to real world results. From a business standpoint, Apple is continuing to do insanely well, weathering the economy and continuing to grow at a break neck rate. So from a business/strategic outlook, Apple is not disappointing, nor is this signaling a downward spiral.
Put simply, Apple did incredibly well, just not as incredibly well as shareholders predicted.
In a way it makes sense; every quarter, analysts are continually conservative, and Apple blows them away. Continuing to shatter expectations is not sustainable; eventually, expectations will be adapted. This time, the pendulum swung top far, but it is approaching more of an equilibrium.
Q1 is always the strongest of the year, so this needs to be compared YoY not sequentially. I haven't got a handle on those numbers myself. If you find them please post. If they really have guided confidently for next quarter it could mitigate some of the sour taste left over from this one.
I already did earlier, they projected a revenue of $37 Billion and EPS of more than $9 per share!
I already did earlier, they projected a revenue of $37 Billion and EPS of more than $9 per share!
No, sorry -- I meant last year's Q1, for purposes of comparison.
No, sorry -- I meant last year's Q1, for purposes of comparison.
$26 Billion IIRC.
Apple seemed to be immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations (often by a lot).
That's a weird spin on global growth: Wall Street expectations based on whisper numbers based on a company's high double-digit increases in revenue and profits (which could come from a combination of market growth, market share growth, and cost-cutting) somehow provides a clue as to the impact on the bottom line from an economy that is growing in the low single-digits!?
A real stretch, I'd say.
Lol. I have long call's not stock. So it's a little different.
You're long (long-dated) call options, not the stock, and yet you think "it's a little different" in terms of the return on your position when the underlying asset price drops!?
Is it 'better' different or 'worse' different?
$26 Billion IIRC.
Okay, well that's still a conservative projection, amounting to less than the 54% growth we saw in this YoY quarter.
That's a weird spin on global growth: Wall Street expectations based on whisper numbers based on a company's high double-digit increases in revenue and profits (which could come from a combination of market growth, market share growth, and cost-cutting) somehow provides a clue as to the impact on the bottom line from an economy that is growing in the low single-digits!?
A real stretch, I'd say.
Spin or stretch? Make up your mind.
Seriously, if a company can grow their earnings by 50% or more in a year when the economy is growing maybe 5% then they've accomplished something major. Which, Apple certainly has -- for several years running. What that's got to do with whisper numbers or anything else you mentioned, I can't really tell.
The real story: Apple is now a $100+ billion / year revenue company and its profits for the fiscal year that just ended ($26 billion) are in the top 20 of all time record annual profits by a company in the history of mankind. Apple is now in the realm of oil companies when it comes to profitability. They've left the tech industry far, far behind.
Yes, it's very impressive, but this was all fully anticipated months ago.
I chose to listen to the earnings call, rather than follow the threads...
I was generally satisfied with the way they presented the results and the reasons for not meeting some expectations.
What really impressed me, though, was the way Tim Cook handled the barrage of questions directed at him.
In prior calls, Tim would field some of the questions, but most were handled by Peter Oppenheimer or Steve when he was present.
Tim got some pretty innocent sounding, difficult questions -- and was able to respond with very concise detailed answers. He appears to have an encyclopedic mind with total recall -- no fumbling around, Err... Ahh... nothing like that.
Tim had the answer he was able to reply immediately.
On the few occasions where strategy questions were asked -- Tim adroitly parried them.
It was an amazing performance -- but it was not an act.
Apple, its shareholders and customers are in good hands.
Spin or stretch? Make up your mind.
Seriously, if a company can grow their earnings by 50% or more in a year when the economy is growing maybe 5% then they've accomplished something major. Which, Apple certainly has -- for several years running. What that's got to do with whisper numbers or anything else you mentioned, I can't really tell.
You should be able to tell: after all, you're the one that wrote: "....immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations."
Whose 'expectations' of exactly what were you referring to? What you wrote tells me that you're the one that conflated global growth and expectations.
'Spin or stretch?' One is a subset of the other. Take your pick.
You're long (long-dated) call options, not the stock, and yet you think "it's a little different" in terms of the return on your position when the underlying asset price drops!?
Is it 'better' different or 'worse' different?
Its a little different in the context that was being used. He was stating that the stock price dips after earnings because people like me are selling. I said (essentially) that I own long calls, my selling them is different and does not directly affect the underlying equity price drop.
Of course my position sank by an order of manitude more than the stock did tonight, however I really didn't buy them to sell after Q4. I thought it was a possibility that I would sell them before or after, but the big fish was always next quarter's results.
You should be able to tell: after all, you're the one that wrote: "....immune from the slow global growth over the past three years, always exceeding expectations."
Whose 'expectations' of exactly what were you referring to? What you wrote tells me that you're the one that conflated global growth and expectations.
'Spin or stretch?' One is a subset of the other. Take your pick.
So? I'm really not following this line of argument.
Apple has managed to plow through some powerful economic headwinds for several years running. Can they continue to do so? Is this earnings report a sign that they can't? That's the question I am asking. I don't pretend to know the answer.
Yes, it's very impressive, but this was all fully anticipated months ago.
It's mind-blowing to me. Apple combines revenue greater than IBM with profits greater than Microsoft and yet the tech media talks about it like it's a fragile start-up that could screw up at any minute. People need to recalibrate.
So? I'm really not following this line of argument.
Apple has managed to plow through some powerful economic headwinds for several years running. Can they continue to do so? Is this earnings report a sign that they can't? That's the question I am asking. I don't pretend to know the answer.
You tell me: you're the one that confidently, unambiguously, in no-uncertain-terms, stated: "Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple."
Now you say you really didn't know that ("I don't pretend to know the answer").
You're not following this.......?
It's mind-blowing to me. Apple combines revenue greater than IBM with profits greater than Microsoft and yet the tech media talks about it like it's a fragile start-up that could screw up at any minute. People need to recalibrate.
Do they? I haven't heard talk like that about Apple from the tech media since circa 2003.
All companies can come up short, even the great ones. You've never any better than your last act.
It's mind-blowing to me. Apple combines revenue greater than IBM with profits greater than Microsoft and yet the tech media talks about it like it's a fragile start-up that could screw up at any minute. People need to recalibrate.
I think people have!
You tell me: you're the one that confidently, unambiguously, in no-uncertain-terms, stated: "Ouch. The crappy global economy has finally reached Apple."
Now you say you really didn't know that ("I don't pretend to know the answer").
You're not following this.......?
Groan. You really do make me groan out loud sometimes.
I already said that was my first reaction to the numbers. Feel free to discuss the actual subject.
Do they? I haven't heard talk like that about Apple from the tech media since circa 2003.
All companies can come up short, even the great ones. You've never any better than your last act.
Have you been living a cave? The standard story is "can Apple survive new product x?" where x is the latest Android phone or tablet or the TouchPad or any of the other failed tablets, and it hasn't changed. Google is a gnat compared to Apple and gets the "unstoppable behemoth" treatment while Apple is still treated like it could implode at any minute if they make one wrong decision.
Groan. You really do make me groan out loud sometimes.
I already said that was my first reaction to the numbers. Feel free to discuss the actual subject.
Then go back and edit your first reaction. You can do that, you know. (Just returning the cheap sarcasm there).
What's the actual subject that you're discussing? That Apple missed EPS expectations? Did you miss what I said before?