See... you have no idea what you are talking about.
The forward guidance for the holiday quarter was $37 billion.... far above the numbers announced at that time for the previous quarter. Knowing that Apple is always conservative you would have had to been a fool to not know that there was going to be a run up at some point soon after that time (middle of October or so).
Had Apple guided $28 billion at that time the run up wouldn't have been so great and right now we are guiding down and, most likely, in July they will guide down again... until the guidance for the holiday quarter.
The big run-up in Apple began in January, after the earnings announcement in January. It had nothing to do with the holiday quarter guidance, because when the big run-up began the holiday quarter earnings had already been announced. There were many factors that caused the big run-up during the mid-Jan to mid-April period. Analysts significantly increasing their estimates, introduction of the retina-display new iPad,and realization by institutional investors that Apple was significantly undervalued were some of the factors. Not the guidance. Nobody believes Apple's guidance because it is always too conservative.
Doesn't look like you know what you are talking about.
The new iPad was only available the last 2 weeks of the quarter and they managed to sell 11.8 millions iPads total. +14 million with a full quarter of new iPad sales doesn't seem too tough.
It's the time of year.
I expect to see 18+ million sold during the holiday quarter but no more than 14 million for the other two quarters. iPads, unlike iPhones, are not a must have device... yet (not that you "must have" and iPhone... but I definitely need my iPhone much more than I need my iPad).
The big run-up in Apple began in January, after the earnings announcement in January. It had nothing to do with the holiday quarter guidance, because when the big run-up began the holiday quarter earnings had already been announced. There were many factors that caused the big run-up during the mid-Jan to mid-April period. Analysts significantly increasing their estimates, introduction of the retina-display new iPad,and realization by institutional investors that Apple was significantly undervalued were some of the factors. Not the guidance. Nobody believes Apple's guidance because it is always too conservative.
Doesn't look like you know what you are talking about.
Bzzzzzzzz... you lose. The run-up started on November 28th. Guidance is [one of the reasons] that causes the big houses to buy or sell.
I expect to see 18+ million sold during the holiday quarter but no more than 14 million for the other two quarters. iPads, unlike iPhones, are not a must have device... yet (not that you "must have" and iPhone... but I definitely need my iPhone much more than I need my iPad).
We'll see...
I disagree. iPads are a disruptor device and everybody's buying them instead of other devices like laptops and netbooks.
Note tat each contract is for 100 options (thus, for example, one May '12 call contract with an exercise price of $570 would have cost him ~$2,200, etc.).
If you think that's the case, why are you holding? Shouldn't you be buying puts?
First of all, I'm very positive about Apple's position going forward. They are one of very few technology companies well-suited for another bubble burst, and if in the unlikely event they drop to something approaching the lows experienced at the beginning of the recession/depression I will simply load up like there's no tomorrow. I do not get "fancy" with any of my stock trades. It's all "buy" or "sell" with me. That's all.
I disagree. iPads are a disruptor device and everybody's buying them instead of other devices like laptops and netbooks.
Oh... I wouldn't say they are a disruptor device. The iPhone is a disruptor device... manufacturers who were currently making phones when the iPhone was introduced had the snot kicked out of them, disrupting the industry totally. The iPad didn't have much to fight until after it was introduced other than netbooks... and I'm not so sure that laptops have been disrupted... if anything, the Air has increased laptop sales and increased competition, and is the real disruptor in that space imho.
Bzzzzzzzz... you lose. The run-up started on November 28th. Guidance is [one of the reasons] that causes the big houses to buy or sell.
Try again...
Sorry, chump. Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies. Not Apple. Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading. The "big houses" are selling, or buying? It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.
You must be short. I feel sorry for you. You gotta learn how this game is played.
First of all, I'm very positive about Apple's position going forward. They are one of very few technology companies well-suited for another bubble burst, and if in the unlikely event they drop to something approaching the lows experienced at the beginning of the recession/depression I will simply load up like there's no tomorrow. I do not get "fancy" with any of my stock trades. It's all "buy" or "sell" with me. That's all.
Getting fancy is very fashionable these days... I tend to be like you, buy and sell... although options can be fun.
Oh... I wouldn't say they are a disruptor device. The iPhone is a disruptor device... manufacturers who were currently making phones when the iPhone was introduced had the snot kicked out of them, disrupting the industry totally. The iPad didn't have much to fight until after it was introduced other than netbooks... and I'm not so sure that laptops have been disrupted... if anything, the Air has increased laptop sales and increased competition, and is the real disruptor in that space imho.
I just came across this today:
The world’s two biggest laptop assemblers are seeking shelter in the cloud as Apple Inc. (AAPL) (AAPL)’s iPad threatens the future of personal computers.
Sorry, chump. Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies. Not Apple. Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading. The "big houses" are selling, or buying? It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.
You must be short. I feel sorry for you. You gotta learn how this game is played.
I think you may be having some trouble figuring out the general tongue-in-cheeknesss of IS's posts.....
Sorry, chump. Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies. Not Apple. Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading. The "big houses" are selling, or buying? It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.
You must be short. I feel sorry for you. You gotta learn how this game is played.
I guess you have no explanation as to why AAPL went down to 362 in November then... or why it began to rise before the actual numbers came out in January... after dismal sales of the iPhone were announced in October. Geez... ignoring the guidance I would have just sold all of my Apple stock in October.
I think you may be having some trouble figuring out the general tongue-in-cheeknesss of IS's posts.....
It's not really tongue in cheek this time. I really do feel that AAPL will go lower over the next few months even it runs up a bit from here. Apple is on a tear but there is no way they're going to let this thing run too high before the July and October numbers are announced.
I feel that after the 6th gen iPhone is announced then we will see AAPL go into the 700s... I really don't think before that.
If they do run this thing into the 700s prior to that on lower and lower guidance then prepare for a real slide just before the 6th gen announcement.
The world’s two biggest laptop assemblers are seeking shelter in the cloud as Apple Inc. (AAPL) (AAPL)’s iPad threatens the future of personal computers.
Okay... that's interesting. I'll give you that. I just keep feeling that there is more to the decline than just the sale of tablets. I think tablets are close but not quite there yet for outright adoption by businesses... and I have to say that I'm not quite sure who is going to get there first... Apple or Microsoft. If Microsoft happens to deliver on all of their promises then it could become an overnight success. It has to deliver first, though, so it's a bit of a stretch at the moment... being that Microsoft has seldom got it right the first time, which is what the iPad did right out of the gate. Regardless... when the tablet hits more of the laptop's features then you can expect to see sales in the 40-50+ million range per quarter (across all manufacturers).
Comments
June quarter (Q3FY12) prediction:
$12.35 EPS on $40.1B revenue
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
See... you have no idea what you are talking about.
The forward guidance for the holiday quarter was $37 billion.... far above the numbers announced at that time for the previous quarter. Knowing that Apple is always conservative you would have had to been a fool to not know that there was going to be a run up at some point soon after that time (middle of October or so).
Had Apple guided $28 billion at that time the run up wouldn't have been so great and right now we are guiding down and, most likely, in July they will guide down again... until the guidance for the holiday quarter.
The big run-up in Apple began in January, after the earnings announcement in January. It had nothing to do with the holiday quarter guidance, because when the big run-up began the holiday quarter earnings had already been announced. There were many factors that caused the big run-up during the mid-Jan to mid-April period. Analysts significantly increasing their estimates, introduction of the retina-display new iPad,and realization by institutional investors that Apple was significantly undervalued were some of the factors. Not the guidance. Nobody believes Apple's guidance because it is always too conservative.
Doesn't look like you know what you are talking about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox
The new iPad was only available the last 2 weeks of the quarter and they managed to sell 11.8 millions iPads total. +14 million with a full quarter of new iPad sales doesn't seem too tough.
It's the time of year.
I expect to see 18+ million sold during the holiday quarter but no more than 14 million for the other two quarters. iPads, unlike iPhones, are not a must have device... yet (not that you "must have" and iPhone... but I definitely need my iPhone much more than I need my iPad).
We'll see...
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen
The big run-up in Apple began in January, after the earnings announcement in January. It had nothing to do with the holiday quarter guidance, because when the big run-up began the holiday quarter earnings had already been announced. There were many factors that caused the big run-up during the mid-Jan to mid-April period. Analysts significantly increasing their estimates, introduction of the retina-display new iPad,and realization by institutional investors that Apple was significantly undervalued were some of the factors. Not the guidance. Nobody believes Apple's guidance because it is always too conservative.
Doesn't look like you know what you are talking about.
Bzzzzzzzz... you lose. The run-up started on November 28th. Guidance is [one of the reasons] that causes the big houses to buy or sell.
Try again...
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
C'mon... if you're going to boast say that you bought 10,000 shares at $20 pre-split...
But, I ...... well, whatever......
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
I've been in 'buy and hold' mode for some time now......Bernanke is setting up this country for another massive bubble.
If you think that's the case, why are you holding? Shouldn't you be buying puts?
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
It's the time of year.
I expect to see 18+ million sold during the holiday quarter but no more than 14 million for the other two quarters. iPads, unlike iPhones, are not a must have device... yet (not that you "must have" and iPhone... but I definitely need my iPhone much more than I need my iPad).
We'll see...
I disagree. iPads are a disruptor device and everybody's buying them instead of other devices like laptops and netbooks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz
If you don't mind me asking, how much did the options cost?
You can find all the option prices, for both calls and puts, here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL&m=2012-04
Note tat each contract is for 100 options (thus, for example, one May '12 call contract with an exercise price of $570 would have cost him ~$2,200, etc.).
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
If you think that's the case, why are you holding? Shouldn't you be buying puts?
First of all, I'm very positive about Apple's position going forward. They are one of very few technology companies well-suited for another bubble burst, and if in the unlikely event they drop to something approaching the lows experienced at the beginning of the recession/depression I will simply load up like there's no tomorrow. I do not get "fancy" with any of my stock trades. It's all "buy" or "sell" with me. That's all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
I disagree. iPads are a disruptor device and everybody's buying them instead of other devices like laptops and netbooks.
Oh... I wouldn't say they are a disruptor device. The iPhone is a disruptor device... manufacturers who were currently making phones when the iPhone was introduced had the snot kicked out of them, disrupting the industry totally. The iPad didn't have much to fight until after it was introduced other than netbooks... and I'm not so sure that laptops have been disrupted... if anything, the Air has increased laptop sales and increased competition, and is the real disruptor in that space imho.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Bzzzzzzzz... you lose. The run-up started on November 28th. Guidance is [one of the reasons] that causes the big houses to buy or sell.
Try again...
Sorry, chump. Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies. Not Apple. Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading. The "big houses" are selling, or buying? It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.
You must be short. I feel sorry for you. You gotta learn how this game is played.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel
Not sure he was boasting, just saying. That was like less than $1k in contracts.. The August $550 call was a great deal today.
Umm.... $1000? Care to explain how you arrived at it?
You do know that each 'contract' is for 100 options right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
First of all, I'm very positive about Apple's position going forward. They are one of very few technology companies well-suited for another bubble burst, and if in the unlikely event they drop to something approaching the lows experienced at the beginning of the recession/depression I will simply load up like there's no tomorrow. I do not get "fancy" with any of my stock trades. It's all "buy" or "sell" with me. That's all.
Getting fancy is very fashionable these days... I tend to be like you, buy and sell... although options can be fun.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Oh... I wouldn't say they are a disruptor device. The iPhone is a disruptor device... manufacturers who were currently making phones when the iPhone was introduced had the snot kicked out of them, disrupting the industry totally. The iPad didn't have much to fight until after it was introduced other than netbooks... and I'm not so sure that laptops have been disrupted... if anything, the Air has increased laptop sales and increased competition, and is the real disruptor in that space imho.
I just came across this today:
The world’s two biggest laptop assemblers are seeking shelter in the cloud as Apple Inc. (AAPL) (AAPL)’s iPad threatens the future of personal computers.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-24/ipad-onslaught-sends-taiwanese-laptop-makers-to-the-cloud
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen
Sorry, chump. Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies. Not Apple. Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading. The "big houses" are selling, or buying? It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.
You must be short. I feel sorry for you. You gotta learn how this game is played.
I think you may be having some trouble figuring out the general tongue-in-cheeknesss of IS's posts.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen
Sorry, chump. Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies. Not Apple. Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading. The "big houses" are selling, or buying? It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.
You must be short. I feel sorry for you. You gotta learn how this game is played.
I guess you have no explanation as to why AAPL went down to 362 in November then... or why it began to rise before the actual numbers came out in January... after dismal sales of the iPhone were announced in October. Geez... ignoring the guidance I would have just sold all of my Apple stock in October.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I think you may be having some trouble figuring out the general tongue-in-cheeknesss of IS's posts.....
More like ignorance....
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I think you may be having some trouble figuring out the general tongue-in-cheeknesss of IS's posts.....
It's not really tongue in cheek this time. I really do feel that AAPL will go lower over the next few months even it runs up a bit from here. Apple is on a tear but there is no way they're going to let this thing run too high before the July and October numbers are announced.
I feel that after the 6th gen iPhone is announced then we will see AAPL go into the 700s... I really don't think before that.
If they do run this thing into the 700s prior to that on lower and lower guidance then prepare for a real slide just before the 6th gen announcement.
jmho
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen
More like ignorance....
nanny nanny poo poo...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
I just came across this today:
The world’s two biggest laptop assemblers are seeking shelter in the cloud as Apple Inc. (AAPL) (AAPL)’s iPad threatens the future of personal computers.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-24/ipad-onslaught-sends-taiwanese-laptop-makers-to-the-cloud
Okay... that's interesting. I'll give you that. I just keep feeling that there is more to the decline than just the sale of tablets. I think tablets are close but not quite there yet for outright adoption by businesses... and I have to say that I'm not quite sure who is going to get there first... Apple or Microsoft. If Microsoft happens to deliver on all of their promises then it could become an overnight success. It has to deliver first, though, so it's a bit of a stretch at the moment... being that Microsoft has seldom got it right the first time, which is what the iPad did right out of the gate. Regardless... when the tablet hits more of the laptop's features then you can expect to see sales in the 40-50+ million range per quarter (across all manufacturers).
jmho