My guess is that you will do very well except for the put. If you don't mind me asking, how much did the options cost?
The cost is this:
1 x 550 april put = 1473
2 x 570 may calls = 2068 each
1 x 550 august call = 5575
1 x 550 october call = 6900
1 x 550 jan2013 call = 7311
but keep in mind I am down 20k from when Apple was at 640. My hope is to get back that 20k before 640, we will see what happen tomorrow when the options prices with the huge volatility drop are in. It may not be as good has it looks. But my options are going to be in the money so it helps.
The put is a total lost but I was too nervous I had to buy some protection for my longs.
I have a feeling the low guidance on iPhones might dampen enthusiasm. One analyst pointed out that if Apple were not guiding low on iPads ( they see a sequential increase ) or Macs (ditto), the drop in revenue would mean ten million fewer iPhone sales. In fact Apple agreed and gave 5 reasons why, unlike last year, they expect significant falls this June quarter. Last year they were supply constrained and hadn't rolled out to all carriers.
Ergo, I would imagine that the stock will stay around the $600 level and could even fall if Apples guidance turns out to be true, a buying opportunity prior to the iPhone 5 launch, and the positioning of the 3GS as a real low cost phone.
investors chomp at the bit to see any sequential market share decline as the start of the collapse of Apples share of the market - based on nonsense comparisons with windows and Mac.
I don't think you can even hope for iPad sales above 14 million until the holiday quarter.
I was surprised that iPods are selling as well as they are in this day and age. Still twice as many iPods as Macs. Not that I give a rat's backside.
That iPhones are outselling iPads by such a large margin also surprised me. I was thinking iPads were being adopted by enterprise and education in larger quantities than iPhones. Not that it really matters, I'm only as good a guesser as the average analyst.
Ergo, I would imagine that the stock will stay around the $600 level and could even fall if Apples guidance turns out to be true, a buying opportunity prior to the iPhone 5 launch, and the positioning of the 3GS as a real low cost phone.
In the U.S. market, the 3GS is free with AT&T and unavailable to other telcos. I'd expect the iPhone 4 will slide down and become free AND available through more telcos... especially Verizon.
I did a few changes on my option holding before the close:
I had at the close:
1 x 550 april put
2 x 570 may calls
1 x 550 august call
1 x 550 october call
1 x 550 jan2013 call.
Bought shares on my wife account at 560.
If you want investment advice... you are not deep enough in the money on those calls. The put didn't do anything for you, and you took far too much risk for the potential gain on all the calls. It might have turned out well this time around (as in you made a profit), but you didn't make enough profit to offset the risk you took. You bought too much time value of money and not nearly enough room for gain.
Spending the same amount of money, I would have done (3) July 525's plus (1) Jan13 570's for roughly the same upside potential. For dramatically lower risk, assuming you didn't have any other holdings, a single January 2014 $350 wouldn't have been a bad choice.
I was surprised that iPods are selling as well as they are in this day and age. Still twice as many iPods as Macs. Not that I give a rat's backside.
That iPhones are outselling iPads by such a large margin also surprised me. I was thinking iPads were being adopted by enterprise and education in larger quantities than iPhones. Not that it really matters, I'm only as good a guesser as the average analyst.
I like guessing. It doesn't really matter but it's fun imho. (for instance... I predicted 13 million iPads for the last quarter and I was high (I was also wrong abut my prediction )
I think there is one important comparison that needs to be made between Apple’s earnings report and that of Microsoft’s: Apple is now a more profitable company by net income margins as well. 29.6% for Apple vs. 29.3% for MS ($11.6 billion net income on revenues of $39.2 billion vs. $5.1 billion on $17.4 billion). Heck, it seems it won’t be long before Apple’s net income catches up with Microsoft’s revenues.
Pretty amazing... A hardware company with better margins than the world's largest software company... Nice... I guess all the naysayers, pundits, trolls, and haters can crawl back into their holes now.
Apple's numbers. especially the margins, should be totally impossible... yet there they are! In a world where some electronic hardware companies are losing money, Apple is doing better then ever. The fact they are out-performing Microsoft is even more astounding. I pray that Steve Ballmer stays in good health and remains at the MS helm until he completely turns that ocean liner into a submarine.
If you want investment advice... you are not deep enough in the money on those calls. The put didn't do anything for you, and you took far too much risk for the potential gain on all the calls. It might have turned out well this time around (as in you made a profit), but you didn't make enough profit to offset the risk you took. You bought too much time value of money and not nearly enough room for gain.
Spending the same amount of money, I would have done (3) July 525's plus (1) Jan13 570's for roughly the same upside potential. For dramatically lower risk, assuming you didn't have any other holdings, a single January 2014 $350 wouldn't have been a bad choice.
There is a reason I didn't go in july, it won't make it to next earnings. So to have time to recover in case of a miss, august is better and october insure iPhone 5 hype. I don't like july options at all. The may calls are a gamble I know, they will still be 2 times there cost tomorrow. In case of a miss I would had use the put money and buy a june call after the correction. I still have plenty of cash to add more leaps but I would like to avoid that. I never play options with more than 10% of the portfolio but if I see apple go extremely undervalue I can temporally go to 20% like I did in january.
I think there is one important comparison that needs to be made between Apple’s earnings report and that of Microsoft’s: Apple is now a more profitable company by net income margins as well. 29.6% for Apple vs. 29.3% for MS ($11.6 billion net income on revenues of $39.2 billion vs. $5.1 billion on $17.4 billion). Heck, it seems it won’t be long before Apple’s net income catches up with Microsoft’s revenues.
Pretty amazing... A hardware company with better margins than the world's largest software company... Nice... I guess all the naysayers, pundits, trolls, and haters can crawl back into their holes now.
That's not really true. Apple is not a hardware company. They are a software company that builds the hardware to run it on. It's a totally different mindset, so the results are different too.
The new iPad was only available the last 2 weeks of the quarter and they managed to sell 11.8 millions iPads total. +14 million with a full quarter of new iPad sales doesn't seem too tough.
if those numbers and dats are correct then serious wow.
Okay... that's interesting. I'll give you that. I just keep feeling that there is more to the decline than just the sale of tablets. I think tablets are close but not quite there yet for outright adoption by businesses... and I have to say that I'm not quite sure who is going to get there first... Apple or Microsoft. If Microsoft happens to deliver on all of their promises then it could become an overnight success. It has to deliver first, though, so it's a bit of a stretch at the moment... being that Microsoft has seldom got it right the first time, which is what the iPad did right out of the gate. Regardless... when the tablet hits more of the laptop's features then you can expect to see sales in the 40-50+ million range per quarter (across all manufacturers).
jmho
I agree with you when it comes to general use by businesses for employees who use a multitude of applications both locally and on the network: Microsoft Office plus whatever proprietary accounting or other apps a particular company uses. No one is going to be very efficient trying to use those kinds of apps on an iPad.
But for employees who do one thing: order takers, inventory, certain medical apps, etc., the iPad is a great device and many businesses are adopting it for those kinds of purposes.
We are getting spoiled by Apple's ridiculously high numbers. They're selling these devices like they're cans of soup! One thing everybody forgets is that Apple has changed the adoption rate of new devices to levels unheard of with any other consumer electronic device. And as such, if the numbers don't grow each quarter by some ridiculous rate, people claim doom.
I think I've probably posted this several times before, but this is the adoption time to 1 million units BA (before Apple). All numbers come from Greystone Communications, Yankee Group except for the iPad number. Apple now does in a weekend what it used to take an industry (never mind a single company) months or years to accomplish.
# of months to 1 million units
iPad: 28 days (14 months=25 million units)
DVD: 21 months
XM Satellite radio: 23 months
CD players: 28 months
MP3 players: 28 months
Radio: 39 months
TV: 40 months (although this # doesn't make sense to me. I doubt there were 1 million TVs in use by November of 1945)
I hadn't even noticed a change until you mentioned it.
Pay attention, man!
Note to everyone: I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.
Whoever did buy 5000 shares at 562 just made $200,000 in a very short time period. Too bad it wasn't me.
True!
But if they had the $2,810,000 to buy those shares in the first place... clearly they are doing something that makes them that kind of money all the time.
Still though... $200,000 in a short time is nothing to sneeze at!
Note to everyone: I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.
Absolutely spot on. I am the same way.
A pathetic set of design changes. It seriously sets the site back.
Ah well, as with most good things, one should have expected that it was too good to last.....
Note to everyone: I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.
Think maybe that's why the average post count has dropped precipitously since the change?
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz
My guess is that you will do very well except for the put. If you don't mind me asking, how much did the options cost?
The cost is this:
1 x 550 april put = 1473
2 x 570 may calls = 2068 each
1 x 550 august call = 5575
1 x 550 october call = 6900
1 x 550 jan2013 call = 7311
but keep in mind I am down 20k from when Apple was at 640. My hope is to get back that 20k before 640, we will see what happen tomorrow when the options prices with the huge volatility drop are in. It may not be as good has it looks. But my options are going to be in the money so it helps.
The put is a total lost but I was too nervous I had to buy some protection for my longs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Not everyone ignores it.
Stop playing contrarian man. The best value in the history of the stock market is right in your face. Get on board and shaddap!
Ergo, I would imagine that the stock will stay around the $600 level and could even fall if Apples guidance turns out to be true, a buying opportunity prior to the iPhone 5 launch, and the positioning of the 3GS as a real low cost phone.
investors chomp at the bit to see any sequential market share decline as the start of the collapse of Apples share of the market - based on nonsense comparisons with windows and Mac.
So I welcome the inevitable, so I can get in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzilla
Stop playing contrarian man. The best value in the history of the stock market is right in your face. Get on board and shaddap!
Contrarian? I guess you haven't been reading my comments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
I don't think you can even hope for iPad sales above 14 million until the holiday quarter.
I was surprised that iPods are selling as well as they are in this day and age. Still twice as many iPods as Macs. Not that I give a rat's backside.
That iPhones are outselling iPads by such a large margin also surprised me. I was thinking iPads were being adopted by enterprise and education in larger quantities than iPhones. Not that it really matters, I'm only as good a guesser as the average analyst.
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd
Ergo, I would imagine that the stock will stay around the $600 level and could even fall if Apples guidance turns out to be true, a buying opportunity prior to the iPhone 5 launch, and the positioning of the 3GS as a real low cost phone.
In the U.S. market, the 3GS is free with AT&T and unavailable to other telcos. I'd expect the iPhone 4 will slide down and become free AND available through more telcos... especially Verizon.
If you want investment advice... you are not deep enough in the money on those calls. The put didn't do anything for you, and you took far too much risk for the potential gain on all the calls. It might have turned out well this time around (as in you made a profit), but you didn't make enough profit to offset the risk you took. You bought too much time value of money and not nearly enough room for gain.
Spending the same amount of money, I would have done (3) July 525's plus (1) Jan13 570's for roughly the same upside potential. For dramatically lower risk, assuming you didn't have any other holdings, a single January 2014 $350 wouldn't have been a bad choice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky
I was surprised that iPods are selling as well as they are in this day and age. Still twice as many iPods as Macs. Not that I give a rat's backside.
That iPhones are outselling iPads by such a large margin also surprised me. I was thinking iPads were being adopted by enterprise and education in larger quantities than iPhones. Not that it really matters, I'm only as good a guesser as the average analyst.
I like guessing. It doesn't really matter but it's fun imho. (for instance... I predicted 13 million iPads for the last quarter and I was high (I was also wrong abut my prediction
Nobody knows what the future holds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexkhan2000
I think there is one important comparison that needs to be made between Apple’s earnings report and that of Microsoft’s: Apple is now a more profitable company by net income margins as well. 29.6% for Apple vs. 29.3% for MS ($11.6 billion net income on revenues of $39.2 billion vs. $5.1 billion on $17.4 billion). Heck, it seems it won’t be long before Apple’s net income catches up with Microsoft’s revenues.
Pretty amazing... A hardware company with better margins than the world's largest software company... Nice... I guess all the naysayers, pundits, trolls, and haters can crawl back into their holes now.
Apple's numbers. especially the margins, should be totally impossible... yet there they are! In a world where some electronic hardware companies are losing money, Apple is doing better then ever. The fact they are out-performing Microsoft is even more astounding. I pray that Steve Ballmer stays in good health and remains at the MS helm until he completely turns that ocean liner into a submarine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh
If you want investment advice... you are not deep enough in the money on those calls. The put didn't do anything for you, and you took far too much risk for the potential gain on all the calls. It might have turned out well this time around (as in you made a profit), but you didn't make enough profit to offset the risk you took. You bought too much time value of money and not nearly enough room for gain.
Spending the same amount of money, I would have done (3) July 525's plus (1) Jan13 570's for roughly the same upside potential. For dramatically lower risk, assuming you didn't have any other holdings, a single January 2014 $350 wouldn't have been a bad choice.
There is a reason I didn't go in july, it won't make it to next earnings. So to have time to recover in case of a miss, august is better and october insure iPhone 5 hype. I don't like july options at all. The may calls are a gamble I know, they will still be 2 times there cost tomorrow. In case of a miss I would had use the put money and buy a june call after the correction. I still have plenty of cash to add more leaps but I would like to avoid that. I never play options with more than 10% of the portfolio but if I see apple go extremely undervalue I can temporally go to 20% like I did in january.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexkhan2000
I think there is one important comparison that needs to be made between Apple’s earnings report and that of Microsoft’s: Apple is now a more profitable company by net income margins as well. 29.6% for Apple vs. 29.3% for MS ($11.6 billion net income on revenues of $39.2 billion vs. $5.1 billion on $17.4 billion). Heck, it seems it won’t be long before Apple’s net income catches up with Microsoft’s revenues.
Pretty amazing... A hardware company with better margins than the world's largest software company... Nice... I guess all the naysayers, pundits, trolls, and haters can crawl back into their holes now.
That's not really true. Apple is not a hardware company. They are a software company that builds the hardware to run it on. It's a totally different mindset, so the results are different too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox
The new iPad was only available the last 2 weeks of the quarter and they managed to sell 11.8 millions iPads total. +14 million with a full quarter of new iPad sales doesn't seem too tough.
if those numbers and dats are correct then serious wow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Okay... that's interesting. I'll give you that. I just keep feeling that there is more to the decline than just the sale of tablets. I think tablets are close but not quite there yet for outright adoption by businesses... and I have to say that I'm not quite sure who is going to get there first... Apple or Microsoft. If Microsoft happens to deliver on all of their promises then it could become an overnight success. It has to deliver first, though, so it's a bit of a stretch at the moment... being that Microsoft has seldom got it right the first time, which is what the iPad did right out of the gate. Regardless... when the tablet hits more of the laptop's features then you can expect to see sales in the 40-50+ million range per quarter (across all manufacturers).
jmho
I agree with you when it comes to general use by businesses for employees who use a multitude of applications both locally and on the network: Microsoft Office plus whatever proprietary accounting or other apps a particular company uses. No one is going to be very efficient trying to use those kinds of apps on an iPad.
But for employees who do one thing: order takers, inventory, certain medical apps, etc., the iPad is a great device and many businesses are adopting it for those kinds of purposes.
We are getting spoiled by Apple's ridiculously high numbers. They're selling these devices like they're cans of soup! One thing everybody forgets is that Apple has changed the adoption rate of new devices to levels unheard of with any other consumer electronic device. And as such, if the numbers don't grow each quarter by some ridiculous rate, people claim doom.
I think I've probably posted this several times before, but this is the adoption time to 1 million units BA (before Apple). All numbers come from Greystone Communications, Yankee Group except for the iPad number. Apple now does in a weekend what it used to take an industry (never mind a single company) months or years to accomplish.
# of months to 1 million units
iPad: 28 days (14 months=25 million units)
DVD: 21 months
XM Satellite radio: 23 months
CD players: 28 months
MP3 players: 28 months
Radio: 39 months
TV: 40 months (although this # doesn't make sense to me. I doubt there were 1 million TVs in use by November of 1945)
DVR: 53 months
VCR: 58 months
Online Subscriber Services: 114 months
Cable/Satellite TV: 144 months
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
PS: The only thing that makes me want to curse is AI's new look and feel. It's depressing, really.
I hadn't even noticed a change until you mentioned it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WelshDog
I hadn't even noticed a change until you mentioned it.
Pay attention, man!
Note to everyone: I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
Whoever did buy 5000 shares at 562 just made $200,000 in a very short time period. Too bad it wasn't me.
True!
But if they had the $2,810,000 to buy those shares in the first place... clearly they are doing something that makes them that kind of money all the time.
Still though... $200,000 in a short time is nothing to sneeze at!
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Note to everyone: I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.
Absolutely spot on. I am the same way.
A pathetic set of design changes. It seriously sets the site back.
Ah well, as with most good things, one should have expected that it was too good to last.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
Whoever did buy 5000 shares at 562 just made $200,000 in a very short time period. Too bad it wasn't me.
You can't always believe everything you read on the internet.... ;-)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip
But if they had the $2,810,000 to buy those shares in the first place...
Leverage is a beautiful thing....
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Pay attention, man!
Note to everyone: I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.
Think maybe that's why the average post count has dropped precipitously since the change?