Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 74
    pokepoke Posts: 506member


    I have a hard time believing that Apple can get to 110 million iPhones per quarter using its current high-margin, subsidised phone model. They'd need to enter the prepaid market and that would bring margins more in line with the iPad, reducing earnings growth somewhat.

  • Reply 22 of 74
    misamisa Posts: 827member


    I think we're not seeing the big picture.


     


    If Apple releases no more new lines of products (eg no iPanel, iCar, iCondo, iPacemaker, etc), 2015 is probably going to be the peak of viable miniature improvements to the iPhone, iPad, and similar nano devices are going to hit a wall unless there is a breakthrough to go past the 10nm process. 


     


    Even if the wireless companies stop subsidizing the phones, that doesn't reduce demand for them. The average person replaces their phone at 18 months, because people don't perceive their phones having any value when subsidized. Instead of replacing the phone at 18 months they'll replace it after 7 years once the NAND flash wears out. Aftermarket repairs can be done to prolong the screen and battery life. 


     


    Android devices barely last long enough to not have to be replaced at 18 months. 

  • Reply 23 of 74
    boogabooga Posts: 1,082member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post





    Click the "contributor" link and read the earliest story by him posted there. You might well have said the same thing about his comments on Apple's future pricing then as well.

    Had we but known we would have said what you did about all the other analysts who got it so wrong.


     


    I did... and found this gem in his first AI post from two years ago: "Research in motion (RIMM) is a fundamentally sound institution that is clearly undervalued on any widely accepted metric of valuation. That doesn’t stop the inefficient market from pricing the stock at less than half of what ought to be worth. Every stock, including Apple, is at the whim of the larger concerns of the broader market."  Makes one wonder if he's just an optimist who's found an optimist's stock to be right about, or if he's really actually good at evaluating fundamental value.

  • Reply 24 of 74
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,934member
    booga wrote: »
    I did... and found this gem in his first AI post from two years ago: "Research in motion (RIMM) is a fundamentally sound institution that is clearly undervalued on any widely accepted metric of valuation. That doesn’t stop the inefficient market from pricing the stock at less than half of what ought to be worth. Every stock, including Apple, is at the whim of the larger concerns of the broader market."  Makes one wonder if he's just an optimist who's found an optimist's stock to be right about, or if he's really actually good at evaluating fundamental value.

    Remember that his expertise is Apple, not RIM. That's where the accuracy is, and that was the focus of the article. You're reaching for an exception that has nothing to do with the rule.
  • Reply 25 of 74
    richardhrichardh Posts: 63member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by GTR View Post



    Just for the record, the original business plan for Underpants Gnomes was the following:

    Phase 1. Collect underpants

    Phase 2. Buy Apple

    Phase 3. Profit!


    Heh.


     


    That exact plan has worked out remarkably well for me over the years, skipping right over step 1. I was an idiot when I bought a f--kton of AAPL back in 2002. I'm still an idiot, with a really sweet pile of cash, built on a foundation of AAPL long.


     


    So, GO UNDERPANTS GNOMES!!!12!!@!!!!! FTW!


     


    Financial analysts are, well, financial analysts.  If somebody were actually an investment genius, why on Earth would they be getting paid by the article to grind out vapid drivel for financial blogs.  I can't think of anybody who listens to any of 'em, at least nobody I know who actually makes any money in the markets.

  • Reply 26 of 74
    esoomesoom Posts: 155member


    I love how people slam Apple till earnings are announced image

  • Reply 27 of 74
    tcaseytcasey Posts: 199member


    Will others catch is the questions...and the hardest place to catch up will be that Apple is building regional retail stores with customer service who's doing to do that ...Google,Samsung,Microsoft.


     


    Amazon is the best position to improve but there need to get into the hardware game in a bigger way...dont see anyone catching up...as long as everyone is copying the MBA and the ipad continues to be a market leader and Iphone is clearly not going anywhere ..Apple will continue to grow globally...it will lose it's cool fact if big changes are made in the wrong way and for investors and not customers.

  • Reply 28 of 74
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member


    Um.  Apple stock went up too much too fast and now it is just settling in until they release more products and more financial reports.  Before the Dec 2011 quarter ended, they were making around $6 or $7 a share per quarter, then Apple blows out the Dec 2011 quarters by double previous quarters.  Then the quarter ending March 2012, they continue basically at around the same levels.  Was Apple making $12 to $14 a share in a quarter an anomaly or is it what they are to expect?  But basically these analysts have their trend lines that they are using and based on the upward momentum and the undeniable fact that the iPads are still selling better each year, the iPhones are selling well, even the Macs are still at a growth rate and the various products they have planned for this year and the continuous trends over the next 3 years or so, this is what they are predicting.  Yes, it is possible to predict Apple's stock, but the problem is that their financials are growing at an exponential rate and some are just downright blown away that their quarterly reports have not shown any sign of retracting.  Some people are nervous because we are going into the summer months, which is typically slower than the other months.  Also, more and more corporations and other entities that don't normally use computers are using iPhones to perform tasks that a phone or a computer is not normally used.  Example.  Amtrak using iPhones for the conductors.  So, these devices are finding new uses where they aren't really replacing a computer, they are creating new uses that were done completely different.  iPhones are replacing cash registers at places like Nordstrom.   Taxi cabs are using iPads instead of using a meter designed just for Taxi cabs.  Things like that are cropping up and it is just a new generation of computing devices people are still trying to figure out the growth for these new markets.

  • Reply 29 of 74
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member


    They probably want the stock to go down so they can buy in at a lower price point.  I don't have any Apple stock, but I would LOVE to be able to afford some.

  • Reply 30 of 74
    jakebjakeb Posts: 562member


    The subsidy issue is such a red herring. Android phones are subsidized just as much as iphones. Now if someone can magically come up with an Android phone that is "good enough" and costs $99 retail, then maybe there's something to worry about. 

  • Reply 31 of 74
    esoomesoom Posts: 155member


    Someone on the Motley Fool did a video on what Apple will do over the coming years, have never been able to find it since, couldn't bookmark the damn thing, but TBH, I think Zaky's pretty close to what will happen.


     


    Apple has several years of massive growth ahead of it.


     


    The iPad has become the "iPod" of tablets, the iPhone continues to be a gateway device to other Apple devices, everyone and their cousin has copied the MBA, we haven't seen anything yet.

  • Reply 32 of 74
    suddenly newtonsuddenly newton Posts: 13,819member


    You know, Apple will get wiped out when Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 hit the market later this year.


    ...And then Steve Ballmer woke up.

  • Reply 33 of 74
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    bwana_dik wrote: »
    Wow...one of the stupidest posts yet.  Stock analysts can't accurately predict prices 6 months down the road, so guessing what a stock will be worth 3 years from now is ludicrous!  The graph reminds me of Mark Twain's discussion of the "shortening" of the Mississippi River and the dangers of extrapolation.

    It seems that all one needs to do to get covered in AppleInsider is mention Apple, no matter how silly what you say is.

    "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact. "
  • Reply 34 of 74
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    Isn't this a bit like saying that if the queen had balls she'd be king? All phones are subsidized. Virtually.

    Not all phones are subsidized. Besides, it's a well known fact that the iPhone gets a higher subsidy than most phones, partly explaining its success in the US:

    <a href = "http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/12/15/verizon_soaking_high_end_android_buyers_to_make_up_for_iphone_subsidies.html">Verizon soaking high end Android buyers to make up for iPhone subsidies</a>

    <a href = "http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/10/26/subsidies_for_apples_iphone_are_40_higher_than_the_industry_average.html">Subsidies for Apple's iPhone are 40% higher than the industry average</a>
  • Reply 35 of 74
    adybadyb Posts: 205member


    Saw this a couple of days ago - seems quite appropriate!


     


    The Official Dilbert Website featuring Scott Adams Dilbert strips, animations and more

  • Reply 36 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member


    Always such a jittery, fearful bunch out there in Investor-Land. Remember, oh.. say.. 6 months ago, when AAPL was at a 13 P/E and plummeting down below $370? Everyone was saying how impossible Zaky and those other logically righteously bullish Analysts were saying $600+? I remember members saying snarky and "it'll never get there!" type stuff, as if they couldn't do the math that in logical Apple style growth, and even at a depressed P/E level, it was very possible.




    At THIS very moment, with a 26 P/E ratio, AAPL would be at $1,200 a share. AAPL hit an 18 P/E just before the downward momentum before they announced incredible earnings (100% YOY growth! And this is after years and years of naysayers saying the tired "they can't keep it up").


     


    Apple's growth will not stop anytime soon, they have new products in the pipeline, they're just getting started worldwide, namely in China and in emerging markets, and haven't even signed a deal with China's largest carrier yet (CHINA HAS JUST SURPASSED THE U.S IN PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS.... AAPL WILL SEE PROBABLY 500%+ GROWTH IN CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT 5 YEARS).



    People can get emotional about this all they want, as they just focus on "high ticker prices", but they were saying this about $500 when LOGISTICS were saying AAPL should get there, even as near as a half a year ago. This article states fundamental, very simplified reasons as to how AAPL will get there EVEN WITH a depressed P/E, therefore, in the near future, $2,000+ can and will happen, unless THE COMPANY flubs. Zaky has a track record of being on point with the general direction of Apple and its growth (and its stocks growth). Tim Cook and co have clear mission from Steve Jobs, and are hungry as ever to fulfill it, and WILL NOT settle for ruining the worlds most successful company. These guys are after blood, and your best bet is to bet on them.

  • Reply 37 of 74
    rainrain Posts: 538member


    Some see logic...


    Some read the headlines and get a *boing* in their shorts.


     


    Guarantee you that a  7" Apple device exposes the fanboi's here - as long as the stock rockets up.


     


    Steve is dead no less then half a product cycle and he's already forgotten to the fold of opportunist investors.

  • Reply 38 of 74
    haarhaar Posts: 563member
    if it happens great!... (for those who bought apple stock early)... so...but...well...

    it will not happen, the stock price of apple will hover around 600 like a forever skipping rock across the water level of 600 dollars

    somebody must be "shorting" the apple stock so that they can get "FREE" money,(so to speak) and because IMAO shorting a stock " removes" value from it (meaning prevents a stock from increasing) it will remain around 600 +/- 10%...

    more likely it will stay around 600 because of the buy/selling of the stock to keep it around 600. (stock brokers' gettin' paid! LOL)

    go ahead, I dare you, buy it!...
  • Reply 39 of 74
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    haar wrote: »
    if it happens great!... (for those who bought apple stock early)... so...but...well...
    it will not happen, the stock price of apple will hover around 600 like a forever skipping rock across the water level of 600 dollars
    somebody must be "shorting" the apple stock so that they can get "FREE" money,(so to speak) and because IMAO shorting a stock " removes" value from it (meaning prevents a stock from increasing) it will remain around 600 +/- 10%...
    more likely it will stay around 600 because of the buy/selling of the stock to keep it around 600. (stock brokers' gettin' paid! LOL)
    go ahead, I dare you, buy it!...

    That's just as insane a view as mindless optimism.

    Share prices are based on the market's perception of the value of the company (i.e., total corporate value divided by the number of shares in existence). The value of the company is determined based on:
    Earnings
    Future growth potential
    Assets

    Assets are increasing - cash is accumulating faster than the dividend will distribute it and Apple is making major investments in new facilities
    Earnings have been steadily increasing for years. In fact, earnings have increased faster than the share price, so the PE ratio has been dropping (which suggests that the market expects future growth to slow down).

    The market average is a PE of around 18. That says that a company growing at market rates should trade at 18 times earnings. If it's growing faster than the market rate (which is just a few percent per year), the PE would be higher (an old rule of thumb is that you add the growth differential to the PE and if the market is at PE of 18 and you're growing faster than the market, the PE for your stock should be 23 - although that rule of thumb is a very weak one). Apple's PE is around 13 (or closer to 10 if you back out the cash). That suggests that the market believes that Apple will grow substantially slower than the market in the next few years.

    Personally, given Apple's history and public guidance, I have a hard time believing that it will grow slower than the market for the next few years, so I believe that the stock is undervalued by that metric. Zaky has assumed constant PE while Apple continues to grow at rates of the past few years. Assuming constant PE is a very reasonable assumption since it takes quite a bit to change that ratio. I'm not as comfortable with his growth assumptions. While I expect Apple to continue to grow at double digit rates, I have to believe that its competition won't remain hapless forever and they will manage to reduce Apple's growth rate somewhat. In addition, there's the 'Apple Effect'. Apple stock seems to be incredibly sensitive to inane stories drummed up by the media. Every time someone drums up some silly "Apple is dying" story, the share price drops precipitously. So it's possible that FUD might affect the share price (although this effect seems to be tapering off lately - there have been too many attempts to bring Apple down over the past 6 months and they're losing their impact).

    In short, I think Zaky might be a little too optimistic because his assumptions require that Apple's competition fails to make a significant comeback and I don't see that. But assuming that it's going to stay around $600 is even more absurd.
  • Reply 40 of 74
    zoetmb wrote: »
    I don't think you'll see this kind of predicted growth in the U.S., but maybe in China and if markets open up in India.    I think his projections are based on a false assumption:  that people will upgrade every year.   I think after a while, especially if future improvements are incremental, tedium will set in and people will be more likely to upgrade every three or even four years than every year.  This will be especially true of the economic problems in Europe are not resolved, although Apple has done incredibly well during the recession.   

    It's a good discussion. I take analysts predictions like this as merely a "what if" scenario. I will use the numbers quarter by quarter to see if they track on this trajectory. Nevertheless, a huge part of the valuation in the future will rely in the further growth outlook at that time. Even if Apple hits all of Zaky's sales and earnings milestones, the perception of future growth will have a significant impact then. We also have the complexity of Apple beginning to distribute earnings through dividends.
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