Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Even if Apple's stock continues to trade at its relatively low valuation of just 14 times earnings, the company's rapidly ballooning earnings will force the stock up to $2,000 per share by the end of 2015, calculates independent analyst Andy M. Zaky.

Zaky, a frequent AppleInsider contributor, was profiled today by Fortune blogger Philip Elmer-DeWitt, who noted that "his estimates over the past four years have been considerably more accurate than your average Wall Street analyst."

In looking at Apple's performance long term, Zaky notes that Apple's "Trailing Twelve Months" (TTM), a figure that represents a company's financial performance over the last 12 months, is poised to more than triple over the next three years, largely due to continued growth in its iPhone sales.

Given that Apple is currently trading under 14 times its current TTM of $41.04 (closing today at $569.18), Zaky notes that by Q4 of 2015, the company's estimated TTM of $145.96 will make even the same conservative 14x P/E valuation result in a share price of $2,043.44, giving the company a two trillion dollar market cap, something the world has never seen before.



Zaky wrote, "I'm fairly confident about these numbers. Here's what I think will guide that: Q1 2013 = 55 million iPhones shipped. Q1 2014 = 80 million iPhones shipped. Q1 2015 = 110 million iPhones shipped."

Zaky further predicted, "2014 is the golden age of Apple and the peak growth year. After 2015, growth will stall and Apple will become a mature company -- at least for this era."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 74
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member


    I guess the likelihood of this happening would be driven by whether or not our economy collapses again.

  • Reply 2 of 74
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member


    Yet analysts predict that Apple's products will continue to lose market share to Android and Windows phones, tablets, PCs, whatever, and will dwindle to nothing in just a few years. And since market share is the only thing analysts seem to care about why would Apple's stock price go anywhere but down? image

  • Reply 3 of 74
    bwana_dikbwana_dik Posts: 85member


    Wow...one of the stupidest posts yet.  Stock analysts can't accurately predict prices 6 months down the road, so guessing what a stock will be worth 3 years from now is ludicrous!  The graph reminds me of Mark Twain's discussion of the "shortening" of the Mississippi River and the dangers of extrapolation.


     


    It seems that all one needs to do to get covered in AppleInsider is mention Apple, no matter how silly what you say is.

  • Reply 4 of 74
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    I guess the likelihood of this happening would be driven by whether or not our economy collapses again.



     


    Its more a question of do you believe Apple can maintain its growth.  IF they don't introduce new products they will need to introduce lower line products in there categories.  They can't maintain that growth selling only premium products because they will saturate the premium segment of there markets.  


     


    The iPad and iPods are doing great regarding price/value ratio, but the iPhone and mac lines are still premium products. They will need to find a way to do what they did with the iPad and be more competitive on prices.

  • Reply 5 of 74
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Are these jokers flipping kidding me?

  • Reply 6 of 74
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 4,024member
    I guess the likelihood of this happening would be driven by whether or not our economy collapses again.

    The last collapse did nothing but drive it up.

    I think a stock split would be in order before AAPL gets into Bershire Hathaway territory.
  • Reply 7 of 74
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,656member


    I don't think you'll see this kind of predicted growth in the U.S., but maybe in China and if markets open up in India.    I think his projections are based on a false assumption:  that people will upgrade every year.   I think after a while, especially if future improvements are incremental, tedium will set in and people will be more likely to upgrade every three or even four years than every year.  This will be especially true of the economic problems in Europe are not resolved, although Apple has done incredibly well during the recession.   


     


    Also, these sales levels can only be maintained if the cell phone service companies continue to subsidize the phones.   But if they should reverse strategy, because they've already saturated the market anyway or because they have enough viable alternatives in competitive Android phone models, and the phone once again becomes $500 to $700 at retail, I think you'll find sales drop in the toilet.   The iPhone did not become a success until AT&T started subsidizing the phone.   If it weren't for the subsidies, the iPhone would be owned primarily by CEOs, rich investors and celebrities.   


     


    On the other hand, I have to believe that even aside from a supposed Apple TV, Apple is working long term on new product lines that we haven't even thought of yet, although we wouldn't necessarily see that within three years.    If they could pull off another product line that is as successful as the iPhone or iPad, the sky's the limit.   


     


    I've written this before, but I think 10 to 20 years from now, Apple is an A.I. and robotics company.      I think Siri is the first baby step in this endeavor.   


     


    I own the stock and would love to see it at $2K, but I think that's terribly optimistic.     Besides, the stock price isn't always related to performance....the stock has been down the past week because of the Europe/Greek crisis.     And I doubt Apple sells a lot of phone in Greece.    

  • Reply 8 of 74
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 4,024member
    Are these jokers flipping kidding me?

    Click the "contributor" link and read the earliest story by him posted there. You might well have said the same thing about his comments on Apple's future pricing then as well.

    Had we but known we would have said what you did about all the other analysts who got it so wrong.
  • Reply 9 of 74
    tylerk36tylerk36 Posts: 1,037member


    I can also see Apple stock hitting a cat and making road kill.

  • Reply 10 of 74
    anfboymnanfboymn Posts: 32member
    I love how you showcase analyst comments that are grossly pro apple but bash or not post the not so favorable articles.
  • Reply 11 of 74
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 4,024member
    zoetmb wrote: »
    The iPhone did not become a success until AT&T started subsidizing the phone.   If it weren't for the subsidies, the iPhone would be owned primarily by CEOs, rich investors and celebrities.

    Isn't this a bit like saying that if the queen had balls she'd be king? All phones are subsidized. Virtually.
  • Reply 12 of 74
    tylerk36tylerk36 Posts: 1,037member


    Camouflage BDU's and extreme threat along with 7.62 mm belt fed M60 = PTSD and a who gives a F%$# attitude any more.  Thanks for the complement.  Have a nice day.  By the way would you mind hitting me in the head the left side so I can have a balanced head injury?  Thanks man your the greatest.  :)

  • Reply 13 of 74
    jason98jason98 Posts: 768member
    Why stopping at 2015? If it quadruples every 2.5 years then it will value:
    At $8000 by middle of 2017.
    At $32000 by 2020
    At $512000 by 2025
    And by 2030 todays share (not taking future splits into account) will worth $2 Million!!!
    So get on while it's cheap!!!
  • Reply 14 of 74
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 4,024member
    anfboymn wrote: »
    I love how you showcase analyst comments that are grossly pro apple but bash or not post the not so favorable articles.

    This is a site for Apple fans. If you want to see the bashing articles go to Android Insider.

    It's easy to find negative press about Apple . . . EVERYWHERE. This is a place for a welcome respite. Now go back to where you came from "An Fan Boy."
  • Reply 15 of 74
    myapplelovemyapplelove Posts: 1,515member


    $2000? Yeah sure good luck with this anal-ysis. What's happened someone's bought in at $600 and are feeling a little queasy. 

  • Reply 16 of 74
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member
    Just for the record, the original business plan for Underpants Gnomes was the following:

    Phase 1. Collect underpants
    Phase 2. Buy Apple
    Phase 3. Profit!
  • Reply 17 of 74
    cycomikocycomiko Posts: 716member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


     


    Its more a question of do you believe Apple can maintain its growth.  IF they don't introduce new products they will need to introduce lower line products in there categories.  They can't maintain that growth selling only premium products because they will saturate the premium segment of there markets.  



     


    Ultimately, the majority of apple sales come from ipad and iphone.  Closing in on 75% of their revenues.  They are still within the growth phase of the smartphone and tablet market.




    When this amrket becomes a little more saturated.  When hte iterations are even less attractive to upgrade to.  Diverging into cancer research?  really?.

  • Reply 18 of 74

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Zaky, a frequent AppleInsider contributor, was profiled today by Fortune blogger Philip Elmer-DeWitt, who noted that "his estimates over the past four years have been considerably more accurate than your average Wall Street analyst."


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anfboymn View Post



    I love how you showcase analyst comments that are grossly pro apple but bash or not post the not so favorable articles.


     


    The fact is Zaky hasn't been just better than average...he has consistently been one of the most accurate analysts anywhere.


    It's not a issue of being pro-Apple or anti-Apple...it is about having a track record of being correct.

  • Reply 19 of 74
    rbelsrbels Posts: 29member


    Its interesting to see who is behind these anal-ysis. Its the same kind of institutional investors who pushed the individual investors to put their money while the race was on this year and then pulling the money out of the market big time. People like me are still scratching the heads trying to understand why the Apple stock slid 11% in the past few weeks, in-spite of a stellar Q1 performance. I saw so many folks here waiting for a market correction while the stock was at $485, but it continued its climb. Just when the results were out and over performed the estimates, it started to slide. 


    $2000 mark may seem achievable, considering the markets that Apple is yet to tap onto. But that will also be the target assuming Apple will continue to stash the cash without paying any dividends. After all, its the IP plus the company value that will multiply into the market cap and the share price. I'm I correct?  Please dont talk Facebook crap, its just another MySpace bubble that investors have created, shouting to everyone that the sh*t is worth 100B.

  • Reply 20 of 74
    normmnormm Posts: 653member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anfboymn View Post



    I love how you showcase analyst comments that are grossly pro apple but bash or not post the not so favorable articles.


     


    Andy Zaky has a good track record in his predictions, so it makes sense to listen to him.


     


    Personally, I suspect that Apple's profits will double twice more in the next three years, with iPad passing the PC in worldwide sales and iPhone benefitting from its halo.  I think the stock price will only double once, though, because people just don't believe what they see.  So a trailing P/E of 7, and really only 6 excluding cash on hand.

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