Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 74
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,934member
    drdoppio wrote: »
    Not all phones are subsidized. Besides, it's a well known fact that the iPhone gets a higher subsidy than most phones, partly explaining its success in the US:
    <a href = "http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/12/15/verizon_soaking_high_end_android_buyers_to_make_up_for_iphone_subsidies.html">Verizon soaking high end Android buyers to make up for iPhone subsidies</a>
    <a href = "http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/10/26/subsidies_for_apples_iphone_are_40_higher_than_the_industry_average.html">Subsidies for Apple's iPhone are 40% higher than the industry average</a>

    That's why I added "Virtually" to my post. Name one mainstream, popular phone that isn't.

    As far as subsidy being higher, well of course it is. Because the phone costs more. Do you reall think the subsidy on a "burner" would be the same as a 4S?
  • Reply 42 of 74
    The more the analyst says this , the more I feel scared .
  • Reply 43 of 74
    advilladvill Posts: 5member


    I have a great respect for Andy and read him where I found an article of him or about him, but in this case the numbers don´t fit, at least in the IPhone units.   If you add the total number of IPhones in 2014 it´s more than 600 million combined, assuming that a organized secondary market exists for this product (the only case I know in the industry), still means that 1 of every 11 people on the planet will have one.


     


    When you analyse the total elders, poors, childs, etc then you rests the people in countries where telecomms are not robust enough.....you finally reach the conclusion that at least 5 billion people are unsuitable by their condition.


     


    So you can have a 2 billion people market and then you make your Gauss curve of income, scholarity and age and find that many of them barely earns $ 4,000 per year, have more than 60 or less than 15 and many don´t read or write, paying a smartphone service of $20 is unviable.


     


    So perhaps the $2000 magic number can be achieved but not with the actual line of products, many other different products will be necessary for that...Still I will keep my shares, be sure of that.


     


    Regards.

  • Reply 44 of 74
    oldmacguyoldmacguy Posts: 151member
    Buy an odd lot.
  • Reply 45 of 74
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    That's why I added "Virtually" to my post. Name one mainstream, popular phone that isn't.

    Go back to the context of the original post that you replied to:
    zoetmb wrote: »
    Also, these sales levels can only be maintained if the cell phone service companies continue to subsidize the phones.   But if they should reverse strategy, because they've already saturated the market anyway or because they have enough viable alternatives in competitive Android phone models, and the phone once again becomes $500 to $700 at retail, I think you'll find sales drop in the toilet.   The iPhone did not become a success until AT&T started subsidizing the phone.   If it weren't for the subsidies, the iPhone would be owned primarily by CEOs, rich investors and celebrities.   

    You should be able to recognize that the argument was not whether all phones are subsidized or not, but about which phone could be affected most when carriers inevitably lose interest in lavish subsidies because the number of new subscribers will have thinned out.
    As far as subsidy being higher, well of course it is. Because the phone costs more. Do you reall think the subsidy on a "burner" would be the same as a 4S?

    When the wireless services that the phones consume are the same, it only makes sense to have equal carrier subsidies. That is currently not the case in the US.
  • Reply 46 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member
    haar wrote: »
    if it happens great!... (for those who bought apple stock early)... so...but...well...
    it will not happen, the stock price of apple will hover around 600 like a forever skipping rock across the water level of 600 dollars
    somebody must be "shorting" the apple stock so that they can get "FREE" money,(so to speak) and because IMAO shorting a stock " removes" value from it (meaning prevents a stock from increasing) it will remain around 600 +/- 10%...
    more likely it will stay around 600 because of the buy/selling of the stock to keep it around 600. (stock brokers' gettin' paid! LOL)
    go ahead, I dare you, buy it!...

    LOL, that is pathetically illogical.

    Go ahead, don't buy, you'll miss out due to fear of "the laws of too much success" and fall victim to Hedgie's scaring you out of the stock, then, it'll pass $600 and make $600 be "the one I should have gotten in at", while you fall victim to believing it'll "be stuck at $800.. 900.. 1,000.. etc.". This dance has been done since the stock was under $100 ("It'll never hit $100.. 200.. 300.. 400.. 500.. 600.. etc.".

    Focus on fundamentals and logistics. Apple has a lot of growth ahead of it.... hell, they could shut their doors down and generate more revenue off of their cash than most of their competitors will even make. The stock may remain absurdly depressed compared to the company's performance, but as always, the company will have to drag it along. Remember that if AAPL had a fair valuation, even less than Priceline's, it would be over $2,000 already. Also, remember that after being at a 12 P/E at the beginning of the year, it almost touched a 19, so the 20's aren't out of reach, per-se, it's just the company grows so fast, it's tough for the stock to keep up with it.. but when those upward corrections happen, boy does it try.
  • Reply 47 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member
    The more the analyst says this , the more I feel scared .

    Ooh, look! Another "scared" investor! Thanks to that notion of illogical "fear" (Really? Fear? $150 B in the bank soon, a big dividend, 100% YOY growth WHILST being the richest company in the world, and you're "scared"? Not time to be scared, right now it's time to catch the train while it's rolling and rolling well into the foreseeable future).

    I wonder if some of you even read the number instead of sheepishly getting swayed by the media trickery of headlines. Zaky backs his assumptions up with simple logic, numbers, conservatively perceived growth, and a conservative P/E. This isn't "OMGDZ, Apple will be king of the world one day" type stuff.. this is simple predictions using very logically based metrics.
  • Reply 48 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by advill View Post


    So perhaps the $2000 magic number can be achieved but not with the actual line of products, many other different products will be necessary for that...Still I will keep my shares, be sure of that.


     


    Regards.





    This I agree with. While his iPhone prediction can very well happen I think (China just surpassed the U.S in phone subscribers, and Apple is just getting its feet wet in China, HUUGE growth coming there, and they LOVE Apple products, and will for a long time), I think to really solidify a case to be consistent in their enormously impressive growth, they will need new products.... and rest assured, Management aren't a bunch of dummies (Apple isn't the most valuable company with the most brilliant business model for nothing), and new products will be in the pipeline. At current stock prices, I don't think people are accounting for ANY new models coming out (clearly, with that terribly low P/E ratio), so as they introduce new segments, the stock will soar and correct accordingly.



    As I've said before, we've done this dance so many times, yet people always seem to have a short term memory when it comes to AAPL stock.

  • Reply 49 of 74
    fairthropefairthrope Posts: 249member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post





    Ooh, look! Another "scared" investor! Thanks to that notion of illogical "fear" (Really? Fear? $150 B in the bank soon, a big dividend, 100% YOY growth WHILST being the richest company in the world, and you're "scared"? Not time to be scared, right now it's time to catch the train while it's rolling and rolling well into the foreseeable future).

    I wonder if some of you even read the number instead of sheepishly getting swayed by the media trickery of headlines. Zaky backs his assumptions up with simple logic, numbers, conservatively perceived growth, and a conservative P/E. This isn't "OMGDZ, Apple will be king of the world one day" type stuff.. this is simple predictions using very logically based metrics.


    I heard exactly like that before Arizona real estate bubble bursts. The guy has shot himself before loan sharks get to him.

  • Reply 50 of 74
    fairthropefairthrope Posts: 249member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by raymondinperth View Post



    The more the analyst says this , the more I feel scared .


    And when would you cash out, have any ballpark estimate or the magic number to trigger the sale?


     


    Me? I may not have that luxury to wait. Outside factors forced me to sell to raise cash. You know what happened to Euro.

  • Reply 51 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post


    I heard exactly like that before Arizona real estate bubble bursts. The guy has shot himself before loan sharks get to him.





    More irrelevant doomsday scenario's. So Apple is like the Arizona housing bubble? LOL, where do you guys come up with this stuff?

  • Reply 52 of 74
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post




    More irrelevant doomsday scenario's. So Apple is like the Arizona housing bubble? LOL, where do you guys come up with this stuff?



     


    There's been many a slip between the lip and the cup.


     


    You seem to take this quite personally.

  • Reply 53 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member


    Nope. I just hate irrationality. I've heard people compare Apple to that of U.S bonds, now to the Arizona housing bubble. What I realize is that doomsday-seekers will stop at nothing to scare themselves out of smart investments. Apple is the exact opposite of any of any of that.

  • Reply 54 of 74
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post


    Nope. I just hate irrationality. I've heard people compare Apple to that of U.S bonds, now to the Arizona housing bubble. What I realize is that doomsday-seekers will stop at nothing to scare themselves out of smart investments. Apple is the exact opposite of any of any of that.



     


    I also dislike irrationality. That's why I found it funny that some people were predicting $700 in a month and nothing-but-up etc. after the last quarterly results.


     


    It was quite obvious that AAPL was headed for nothing but down for a period... a period that could last until the end of the year.


     


    I just didn't understand how people could think that AAPL was headed up when Apple itself was guiding down for at least the next quarter... having already been down from the previous quarter.


     


    Is Apple doing well?  Of course.  Investors get nervous with any company, especially Apple, when it looks as if the balance sheet won't pick up speed again for a few months. Their thinking is as I stated... "There is many a slip between the lip and cup".

  • Reply 55 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member


    However, who can blame anyone for thinking that AAPL should head up and up, when it just posted incredible (INCREDIBLE) quarterly results.... in fact, their best ever. XMax quarter was initially their best quarter, but such a blowout in what's usually a pretty slow quarter, showing that XMas-Quarter numbers were no fluke, is the strongest "Buy Signal" if I've ever heard one.


     


    Not to mention, Forward P/E levels almost in the single digits, iPhone 5 coming this year, who knows what else coming this year, etc. Fundamentally, AAPL stock has a ton of upward correction. Now, of course the market is irrational, and those who invest more in market psych and short trends could have seen some sideways time coming, but that's a more illogical, unverifiable form of investing. 


     


    I don't think AAPL will go sideways until the end of the year. I think it'll definitely be over $700, BUT, at worst, it might take iPhone 5 build up and launch to get us there.

  • Reply 56 of 74
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post


    However, who can blame anyone for thinking that AAPL should head up and up, when it just posted incredible (INCREDIBLE) quarterly results.... in fact, their best ever. XMax quarter was initially their best quarter, but such a blowout in what's usually a pretty slow quarter, showing that XMas-Quarter numbers were no fluke, is the strongest "Buy Signal" if I've ever heard one.


     


    Not to mention, Forward P/E levels almost in the single digits, iPhone 5 coming this year, who knows what else coming this year, etc. Fundamentally, AAPL stock has a ton of upward correction. Now, of course the market is irrational, and those who invest more in market psych and short trends could have seen some sideways time coming, but that's a more illogical, unverifiable form of investing. 


     


    I don't think AAPL will go sideways until the end of the year. I think it'll definitely be over $700, BUT, at worst, it might take iPhone 5 build up and launch to get us there.



     


    ... and yet, here we are... down another $5.


     


    Could it be that you are wrong about how the markets actually work?

  • Reply 57 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member


    Understand that how the market works is merely a guess, I'm not contesting that. I'm talking *fundamentals*. If the market were fundamentally driven, then buying AAPL anywhere is a great investment, because it's drastically undervalued. Your "I told you so" is simple luck, AAPL could have easily gone the other way.... BUT.... the market is irrational, isn't it? Maybe I trust fundamentals too much, and in the short term it's quite inconsistent, but in the long term, it's still the best way to invest.

  • Reply 58 of 74
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post


    Understand that how the market works is merely a guess, I'm not contesting that. I'm talking *fundamentals*. If the market were fundamentally driven, then buying AAPL anywhere is a great investment, because it's drastically undervalued. Your "I told you so" is simple luck, AAPL could have easily gone the other way.... BUT.... the market is irrational, isn't it? Maybe I trust fundamentals too much, and in the short term it's quite inconsistent, but in the long term, it's still the best way to invest.



     


    Luck?  I must be pretty lucky.


     


    ... but I know I could get it right 15 times over 5 years and you'd still say it's luck.

  • Reply 59 of 74
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member


    At the same time, when AAPL was stuck at $380 levels and even lower with a 13 P/E last year, and I bought thinking the Stock should be at $600 already, was that fundamental logic or luck? Or when AAPL is well over $800 in a year and a half or so (maybe by the end of this year), will that be luck or simple fundamental sense? 


     


    I think the divide here is short term VS long term outlook. If Joe-Investor likes AAPL, and liked Apples performance and fundamentals to buy after their earnings release to invest in the company for a longer term, by the time he's ready to sell, $620 or $550 won't be such a big difference. It's like the Buffett way of thinking: You like a company and the stock? Simply buy it, get in, and ignore the noise. If you're trading for short term gains, every dollar and time limit counts (this is why trading drove me NUTS, regardless of how I was doing).

  • Reply 60 of 74
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post


    At the same time, when AAPL was stuck at $380 levels and even lower with a 13 P/E last year, and I bought thinking the Stock should be at $600 already, was that fundamental logic or luck? Or when AAPL is well over $800 in a year and a half or so (maybe by the end of this year), will that be luck or simple fundamental sense? 


     


    I think the divide here is short term VS long term outlook. If Joe-Investor likes AAPL, and liked Apples performance and fundamentals to buy after their earnings release to invest in the company for a longer term, by the time he's ready to sell, $620 or $550 won't be such a big difference. It's like the Buffett way of thinking: You like a company and the stock? Simply buy it, get in, and ignore the noise. If you're trading for short term gains, every dollar and time limit counts (this is why trading drove me NUTS, regardless of how I was doing).



     


    Try and explain that to someone who bought above $620. Those people understand what I am saying. Sure it's nice to believe that Apple will rise above $700, and it most likely will... but anything can happen between now and then.


     


    Noise doesn't come just from those who are pessimistic...

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