Next boost (small) will be release of new Apple MacBooks in June. September or October introduction of a 4G iPhone 5 is much more important, especially since it will be followed by a contract with China Mobile. A smaller (7"?) iPad and possible iTV could help, but I'm not counting on either this year.
The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.
Excuse me but you make absolutely no sense! If you initiated a buy when he last said, you did exceptionally well. There is NO other consideration! And once again, if you buy now, you will do exceptionally well. The point of the article is that he is the most accurate analyst at calling the bottom. Pay attention and try to keep up....
"Our buy ratings are a little different than what one would normally expect in that we give a band where we feel the stock is a “strong buy” and where the stock is a “buy.” We also give a price target. But what we don’t do is publish an ongoing buy rating. Our buy ratings are thus temporary in nature."
The question is, why would you buy at 605? Normally for those who bought at 2xx level, they'd have sold most of them, not buy more after it's up more than 200%. Fundamentally, analysts always call AAPL cheap, but it was a lot cheaper at 2xx, 3xx or even 4xx than 605. Technically, it was exploding from 4xx to 6xx, and it's bounded to drop.
Anyway, not criticizing here, we all try to learn from our trades.
Dude, please, go away as you obviously have no clue what you are talking about!
I dont think you understand what is really going on here. You say "AAPL has not changed". That is not true. The most recent earning has placed AAPL at a PE of less than 13 at current share price. When AAPL was at 530 about two months ago the PE was at 16+. You see Andy publishes his buy recommendations after the stock has sold off and enters PE multiples as low as 13. As he stated, this has only happened several times in the past (the most recent one being 11 months ago when apple was trading at a PE of 13 again). I just want to make it clear that it is not the stock price that matters, but the PE ratio, both trailing and forward, and the point is, according to that measure, aapl is a screaming buy right now... If you dont understand we can try to explain further...
don't try to put forth rationale arguments as the guy is obviously an idiot...
Apple's fundamentals haven't changed at all. It's just that stocks as a whole aren't an attractive asset class to be parking money in.
All the arguments I've been hearing about how Apple's growth isn't sustainable sound like saying, "Eventually everything that is born has to die." Don't tell me that Apple's growth will level off. Tell me HOW Apple will level off. Will Apple die of cancer or natural causes?
Does that explain why Apple wasn't a strong by at 400 before it rose 50% or $200? Nope. Typical analyst BS. Just because Zaky likes to place himself outside the world of "typical" analysts, that's all he is. He just happens to love Apple more than the others and so he's more bullish on it. He'll tell you (just ask him) that he's been more accurate than the rest. It's also true that he's been predictably more optimistic than the rest. He's just another version of the stopped clock and the blind squirrel. He just happens to love a stock that has been rising for longer than most.
For anyone who's ever seen a bubble pop, the above quote should send a chill down your spine.
And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now?
Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.
Thanks. I just can't help but be envious of my sister, who loaded up when it was $120.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
On one trading forum my username is buywhenisell...
... on yet another it's sellwhenibuy.
Many of us know where you are coming from.
[but I wouldn't despair too much about AAPL @ $604. You may not sleep right on occasion worrying about it but my guess is that you will be happy fairly soon]
And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now?
Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.
Nope, I'm long Apple. But I'm not dumb enough to think that there's nothing that can go wrong like some people are. I guess you didn't read my posts very carefully.
But yes, when investing amateurs like yourself say things like "almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued..." it's a very good sign for more seasoned investors to be wary. Once the riff raff starts thinking they know how to get rich, you can bet that there aren't many buyers left out there who don't already own too much of the stock.
And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now?
Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.
Apple is firing on all cylinders, but the question has to be asked about where further exponential growth can come from. The ipad and iphone are currently doing very well in BRICS countries, and are bringing growth there, but once those markets are saturated, where does apple go from there? An apple TV would be far lower margin, have less broad-based appeal, longer replacement cycle, and licensing issues all over the place that would prevent it from being as ubiquitous as the iphone/ipad. Should apple release a yet-lower priced ipad, they will also have an entire range of computing products covering a price range from $200-2000+. There is not a whole lot of room to grow there unless they introduce yet a new product category. I'm not saying that they won't, but I do think these are valid reasons for the stock not having a P/E ratio of 50+.
The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.
so what? we can't go back in time, and we're not at 11 months ago. he's saying its relatively cheap now for what is known about the stock, and what he considers adequate risk/reward. looking at the left side of the chart is always easy.
Zaky... has been right all the way up, and he'll be wrong all the way down... every forum had a favorite prescient amateur analyst who eloquently put forth why the stock had nowhere to go but up. That person looks brilliant as long as the stock rises, but when it stops, it is revealed that the person can only say "... up from here!" and can't handle predicting the downward slide.
cameronj said it well. Zaky's analysis is based on little than more than the comparison of historic P/E ratios for AAPL. Such analysis can turn wrong if acceleration of earnings can't be sustained.
There are fundamental forces at the market that go beyond P/E ratios.
I see iOS fatigue on the horizon. Multiple icons drain your focus. Plus perennially unreliable syncing. Add to that a tiny 3.5” screen and no wonder Angry Birds, which requires rudimentary finger gestures, is the king.
The time is ripe for a mobile device with a bigger screen, a UI that steers your focus toward creating and editing meaningful content rather that distracting you with colorful entertainment icons.
Unless Apple ups its game soon, I see trouble. Competitors, while being at a disadvantage due to non-integrated software and hardware, are not sleeping.
Competitors, while being at a disadvantage due to non-integrated software and hardware, are not sleeping.
Apple aren't either. People seem to underestimate Apple's management team.... the same people who were pivotal parts of getting this company to where they are at.
Apple aren't either. People seem to underestimate Apple's management team.... the same people who were pivotal parts of getting this company to where they are at.
Lol. It was a nice touch indeed. For some reason, when it comes to competitors, people have historically had this notion that Apple's executive team are helpless. I've seriously heard whacky "haters" claim that if competitors catch up to Apple, then the company will file for BK. LOL. Man, I mean, there's a long story ahead for Apple, even IF competitors did "catch them" (kind of hard to gauge what "catch" is, as Apple still has some "catching" to do to its competitors itself, lots of it), let them plan their attack back! In this crazy world we live in, people one up each other, one falls behind, then catches up, then.... etc. etc.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove
hmm down to $530, and more anal-ysis from Zacky. You boys shouldn't of bought at $600.
Not if they're looking to get out in a short term horizon.
That $600 will look mighty nice when the stock is accelerating right past it.
Next boost (small) will be release of new Apple MacBooks in June. September or October introduction of a 4G iPhone 5 is much more important, especially since it will be followed by a contract with China Mobile. A smaller (7"?) iPad and possible iTV could help, but I'm not counting on either this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.
Excuse me but you make absolutely no sense! If you initiated a buy when he last said, you did exceptionally well. There is NO other consideration! And once again, if you buy now, you will do exceptionally well. The point of the article is that he is the most accurate analyst at calling the bottom. Pay attention and try to keep up....
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove
hmm down to $530, and more anal-ysis from Zacky. You boys shouldn't of bought at $600.
And you should "of" paid attention in grade school.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rasimo
"Our buy ratings are a little different than what one would normally expect in that we give a band where we feel the stock is a “strong buy” and where the stock is a “buy.” We also give a price target. But what we don’t do is publish an ongoing buy rating. Our buy ratings are thus temporary in nature."
No need repeating, he apparently can't read!
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
The question is, why would you buy at 605? Normally for those who bought at 2xx level, they'd have sold most of them, not buy more after it's up more than 200%. Fundamentally, analysts always call AAPL cheap, but it was a lot cheaper at 2xx, 3xx or even 4xx than 605. Technically, it was exploding from 4xx to 6xx, and it's bounded to drop.
Anyway, not criticizing here, we all try to learn from our trades.
Dude, please, go away as you obviously have no clue what you are talking about!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ko024
I dont think you understand what is really going on here. You say "AAPL has not changed". That is not true. The most recent earning has placed AAPL at a PE of less than 13 at current share price. When AAPL was at 530 about two months ago the PE was at 16+. You see Andy publishes his buy recommendations after the stock has sold off and enters PE multiples as low as 13. As he stated, this has only happened several times in the past (the most recent one being 11 months ago when apple was trading at a PE of 13 again). I just want to make it clear that it is not the stock price that matters, but the PE ratio, both trailing and forward, and the point is, according to that measure, aapl is a screaming buy right now... If you dont understand we can try to explain further...
don't try to put forth rationale arguments as the guy is obviously an idiot...
Apple's fundamentals haven't changed at all. It's just that stocks as a whole aren't an attractive asset class to be parking money in.
All the arguments I've been hearing about how Apple's growth isn't sustainable sound like saying, "Eventually everything that is born has to die." Don't tell me that Apple's growth will level off. Tell me HOW Apple will level off. Will Apple die of cancer or natural causes?
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
Does that explain why Apple wasn't a strong by at 400 before it rose 50% or $200? Nope. Typical analyst BS. Just because Zaky likes to place himself outside the world of "typical" analysts, that's all he is. He just happens to love Apple more than the others and so he's more bullish on it. He'll tell you (just ask him) that he's been more accurate than the rest. It's also true that he's been predictably more optimistic than the rest. He's just another version of the stopped clock and the blind squirrel. He just happens to love a stock that has been rising for longer than most.
You seem to be as clueless as drobforever....
What about buying ARM instead? Whether iPhone or Android wins, ARM benefits. The upside might be higher?
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
For anyone who's ever seen a bubble pop, the above quote should send a chill down your spine.
And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now?
Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.
Thanks. I just can't help but be envious of my sister, who loaded up when it was $120.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
On one trading forum my username is buywhenisell...
... on yet another it's sellwhenibuy.
Many of us know where you are coming from.
[but I wouldn't despair too much about AAPL @ $604. You may not sleep right on occasion worrying about it but my guess is that you will be happy fairly soon]
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp
And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now?
Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.
Nope, I'm long Apple. But I'm not dumb enough to think that there's nothing that can go wrong like some people are. I guess you didn't read my posts very carefully.
But yes, when investing amateurs like yourself say things like "almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued..." it's a very good sign for more seasoned investors to be wary. Once the riff raff starts thinking they know how to get rich, you can bet that there aren't many buyers left out there who don't already own too much of the stock.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
This guy lost all credibility when he didn't initiate buy rating during the past 11 months, but now.
He should've initiated buy ratings long time ago, when the stock was like 400 or even 360.
Its called risk/reward, and he judged the risk/reward to not be in his favor at 400 and 360. Common sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp
And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now?
Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.
Apple is firing on all cylinders, but the question has to be asked about where further exponential growth can come from. The ipad and iphone are currently doing very well in BRICS countries, and are bringing growth there, but once those markets are saturated, where does apple go from there? An apple TV would be far lower margin, have less broad-based appeal, longer replacement cycle, and licensing issues all over the place that would prevent it from being as ubiquitous as the iphone/ipad. Should apple release a yet-lower priced ipad, they will also have an entire range of computing products covering a price range from $200-2000+. There is not a whole lot of room to grow there unless they introduce yet a new product category. I'm not saying that they won't, but I do think these are valid reasons for the stock not having a P/E ratio of 50+.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever
The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.
so what? we can't go back in time, and we're not at 11 months ago. he's saying its relatively cheap now for what is known about the stock, and what he considers adequate risk/reward. looking at the left side of the chart is always easy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
Zaky... has been right all the way up, and he'll be wrong all the way down... every forum had a favorite prescient amateur analyst who eloquently put forth why the stock had nowhere to go but up. That person looks brilliant as long as the stock rises, but when it stops, it is revealed that the person can only say "... up from here!" and can't handle predicting the downward slide.
cameronj said it well. Zaky's analysis is based on little than more than the comparison of historic P/E ratios for AAPL. Such analysis can turn wrong if acceleration of earnings can't be sustained.
There are fundamental forces at the market that go beyond P/E ratios.
I see iOS fatigue on the horizon. Multiple icons drain your focus. Plus perennially unreliable syncing. Add to that a tiny 3.5” screen and no wonder Angry Birds, which requires rudimentary finger gestures, is the king.
The time is ripe for a mobile device with a bigger screen, a UI that steers your focus toward creating and editing meaningful content rather that distracting you with colorful entertainment icons.
Unless Apple ups its game soon, I see trouble. Competitors, while being at a disadvantage due to non-integrated software and hardware, are not sleeping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by enature
Competitors, while being at a disadvantage due to non-integrated software and hardware, are not sleeping.
Apple aren't either. People seem to underestimate Apple's management team.... the same people who were pivotal parts of getting this company to where they are at.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzilla
Apple aren't either. People seem to underestimate Apple's management team.... the same people who were pivotal parts of getting this company to where they are at.
Did you like the part about iOS fatigue?
I thought that was kinda cute.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Did you like the part about iOS fatigue?
I thought that was kinda cute.
Lol. It was a nice touch indeed. For some reason, when it comes to competitors, people have historically had this notion that Apple's executive team are helpless. I've seriously heard whacky "haters" claim that if competitors catch up to Apple, then the company will file for BK. LOL. Man, I mean, there's a long story ahead for Apple, even IF competitors did "catch them" (kind of hard to gauge what "catch" is, as Apple still has some "catching" to do to its competitors itself, lots of it), let them plan their attack back! In this crazy world we live in, people one up each other, one falls behind, then catches up, then.... etc. etc.