'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
With customers holding off purchases in anticipation of Apple's next iPhone, an expected September launch is forecast to provide a significant boost for the company's current quarter, with sales reaching as high as 10 million in just one week.

Following the news that invitations for an event next Wednesday had been sent out by Apple, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray issued a note to investors in which he said a September launch window could have iPhone sales for the current quarter exceed Wall Street expectations.

Market watchers generally expect that Apple will report sales of between 22 million and 23 million iPhones in the September quarter. But a launch of the next iPhone this month could push total sales as high as 28 million, Munster said.

Munster believes Apple could sell a total of between 6 million and 10 million new iPhones in the final week of September, barring potential supply issues. That would result in an 8 percent upside to Wall Street's current projection of $35 billion in revenue, and 12 percent upside to earnings per share of $8.46.

If Apple were to sell 8 million of the new iPhone at launch, it would top the 4 million units that the iPhone 4S sold in its first three days of availability last year. Prior to that, Apple's record launch for the iPhone 4 achieved 1.7 million units in three days.

iPhone 5 2


Rumors have suggested the next iPhone will become immediately available for preorder when it is unveiled next Wednesday. It's expected that the device will become available in the U.S. and select other countries the following Friday, Sept. 21.

The new iPhone is expected to be formally unveiled at Apple's keynote presentation next Wednesday, beginning at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, Calif. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage of the event.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 45
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,778member
    'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter

    I'll see your 10 and raise you 5.
  • Reply 2 of 45


    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

    'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter

    I'll see your 10 and raise you 5.


     


    How many per quarter would it have to be to outsell all previous iPhones combined as all the others have?

  • Reply 3 of 45


    No : 10 Millions +1 (my order)

  • Reply 4 of 45


    If I'm eligible for an upgrade now with VZ, how's that work with pre-order?  Can I just order through VZ? Or is there a way to order from Apple and still get my upgrade, which is what I prefer to do.  Order from Apple, that is.

  • Reply 5 of 45
    tylerk36tylerk36 Posts: 1,037member


    Yes larger screen.  I would have preferred a wider and taller screen.  But I guess we will have to wait and see if the iPhone 5s or 6 will sport the wider screen.

  • Reply 6 of 45
    How many per quarter would it have to be to outsell all previous iPhones combined as all the others have?

    Who cares. Will never happen. Not because it has 30% bezel ratio, longer case, or lacks NFC, but simply because every exponential growth comes to an end.
  • Reply 7 of 45


    Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

    Who cares. Will never happen. …because every exponential growth comes to an end.


     


    Would you drop the nonsense about the bezels? How are you supposed to hold a phone safely without bezels? Where are the speaker and front-facing camera supposed to go? Not all apps have dual-thumb controls, and those that do don't use them 100% of the time.


     


    And while I agree with the latter half of that, the former is something said about every iPhone that has been proven wrong every time. We'd have to have some indication beforehand that it wasn't going to happen for saying that to be more than just doom and gloom. We're close to that point, sure, but not there yet.

  • Reply 8 of 45
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member


    Sales of gold-and-aqua iPhone 4S’s remain in the toilet. Shudder.

  • Reply 9 of 45
    jason98 wrote: »
    ...every exponential growth comes to an end.

    ...just not this year.

    If they release in mainland China at the same time, they should be able to do double last year's sales. The real question is if they could possibly have stocked enough units to hit that level of sales. 10MM units is about one month of iPhone 4S production at the peak. Realistically, ramp-up is at half that pace best case, so they would have needed two full months of production before launch to maintain the record.

    The first rumors of full-scale production published here were in August if I recall correctly, so that is not too far off of where it would have needed to be.
  • Reply 10 of 45


    The question is, will they have ENOUGH to handle the demand?

  • Reply 11 of 45


    So it might be called iPhone 5 after all? A lot of crow eating here and elsewhere if true.

  • Reply 12 of 45


    Depends on when they record a sale.  I could see 20 million sold in the first 10 days if Apple reports sales that include inventory build up by the carriers (VZ,ATT, Sprint) with the actual activation or upgrade occuring at a later date.. Also depends on how fast the international rollout is for this release.  Every new phone has had quicker international launches.  We should start to see all international shipping routes from Asia to the West completely sold out.

  • Reply 13 of 45
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post


    The question is, will they have ENOUGH to handle the demand?



     


    From past evidence alone: no they won’t, and that will hurt sales in the short term. But most people who can’t get one will just wait, and the tail of massive sales will be a long one.

  • Reply 14 of 45


    WOW, how soon we forget. It was only last Friday that this story was post here on AI: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/08/31/sharp_hits_delays_producing_screens_for_apples_next_iphone___wsj.html


     


    So is it possible to ship enough to meet demand with display/touchscreen production delays? Who does the cross/fact checking around here?

  • Reply 15 of 45


    Assuming a Sept. 21 release, that gives them 10 days to deliver (not ship!) 10M units. To think they could stockpile that many units is insane while still producing the older model phones. That said, I have a spoon ready to eat my words if they do it. I'll help by picking up at least one of the 10M, hopefully in the first week.

     

  • Reply 16 of 45
    focherfocher Posts: 630member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


    If I'm eligible for an upgrade now with VZ, how's that work with pre-order?  Can I just order through VZ? Or is there a way to order from Apple and still get my upgrade, which is what I prefer to do.  Order from Apple, that is.



     


    Anyone with a calculator should run the numbers and see that it makes NO SENSE to buy a locked phone from an operator and be under contract. You should buy the phone directly from Apple and then do a month-to-month prepaid plan or use one of the MVNOs the resells the service for the operator of your choice. Of course, so far Verizon and AT&T have not allowed MVNOs to resell their LTE services yet.


     


    With the iPhone 4S, you didn't even have to choose a different phone if you wanted to use Verizon or AT&T because it was the same phone for both.

  • Reply 17 of 45
    focherfocher Posts: 630member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post


    Assuming a Sept. 21 release, that gives them 10 days to deliver (not ship!) 10M units. To think they could stockpile that many units is insane while still producing the older model phones. That said, I have a spoon ready to eat my words if they do it. I'll help by picking up at least one of the 10M, hopefully in the first week.

     



    Supply chain management - which Apple is undisputedly the leader - works quite a bit different than what you allude. Apple knows exactly when it is going to release a new iPhone. They also know exactly how much inventory has built up (including some they did intentionally to cover manufacturing disruptions like a model change). Also remember that Apple still produces the 3GS and 4, and will do the same for the 4S. They are very experienced at managing the supply side through manufacturing planning.


     


    They are most assuredly already manufacturing the next iPhone, at least most of it. If, for example, there are screen supply issues they still build the other pieces that they can prior to needing the screen. 

  • Reply 18 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


    If I'm eligible for an upgrade now with VZ, how's that work with pre-order?  Can I just order through VZ? Or is there a way to order from Apple and still get my upgrade, which is what I prefer to do.  Order from Apple, that is.



    It just works.... Apple has a nice little (on their sales iPod Touch) app that they ask you your VZ account information, drill into their Database, check your eligibility, make the sale, assign your number and connect your phone to their network... less than 10 minutes.

  • Reply 19 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post


    Assuming a Sept. 21 release, that gives them 10 days to deliver (not ship!) 10M units. To think they could stockpile that many units is insane while still producing the older model phones. That said, I have a spoon ready to eat my words if they do it. I'll help by picking up at least one of the 10M, hopefully in the first week.

     



    42,000/hour ... 12 per second from the apple from the manufacturing loading dock to your doorstep.   The skies will be black with 747s over China and Memphis.


     


    If they plan a run rate of 8Million/month (24 Million a quarter, or 2/3rds next years sell through rate), then you can consider that they can build 4 million From Sept 12-27.  They have to stock pile 6Million prior to that, which is 3 weeks worth.   


     


    The manufacturing is doable.  The delivery Logisitics (just boxing and labeling them) is the crazy part.

  • Reply 20 of 45


    Nice numbers (I didn't double check the math, but I believe you). It puts into perspective what the greatest product launch will look like if the 10M units this quarter are delivered.


     


    I wonder what the split is for over-the-counter vs ordered is.

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