Apple's 'iPhone 5' expected to hurt PC makers, existing LTE phones
The launch of Apple's new iPhone is predicted to have major implications throughout the personal electronics market, making existing LTE smartphones look bulky and subpar while taking away IT dollars from PC makers like Dell and HP.
Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan on Monday took a look at the larger implications of Apple's anticipated "iPhone 5" debut. He believes the entire technology "food chain" will have winners and losers as a result of Apple's latest handset.
Some of the biggest losers out of the new iPhone launch will be competing smartphone makers who have existing 4G LTE handsets on the market. Moskowitz expects that Apple's so-called "iPhone 5" will offer better battery performance in a smaller form factor that will further label competing devices as battery and pocket "hogs."
While non-Apple handset makers will be negatively affected by the new iPhone, Moskowitz also believes Apple's latest smartphone will also hurt Windows-based PC makers. The analyst said Monday that the iPhone 5 will "sustain the land grab of smartphones taking IT dollars from PCs, dampening PC-related growth prospects at Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and other PC makers."
The new iPhone is projected to mark one of the few secular growth stories for the semiconductor industry in the second half of 2012. With strong demand for the iPhone 5, companies like Fairchild Semiconductor, Qualcomm and Avago that supply components to Apple are expected to see benefits.
The new iPhone is also expected to benefit LG Display, which is believed to supply in-cell touchscreen panels; Samsung Electronics, which builds Apple's custom processors; and LG Innotek, which is believed to be supplying camera modules.
But the debut of turn-by-turn navigation in Apple's new Maps application for iOS 6 is forecast to have a negative effect on existing GPS service providers TeleNav, TeleCommunication Systems, and Garmin.
As for wireless carriers, Moskowitz expects upgrades to increase, which will have a negative effect on their margins. But in the longer term, the iPhone 5 is expected to accelerate the upgrade cycle to 4G LTE, particularly in the U.S. where the market is dominated by slower 3G phones.
As for Europe, the impact of 4G LTE is "unclear," Moskowitz said, as it is unknown whether the device will support European LTE frequencies. Regardless, he does not believe the new iPhone will be as disruptive with respect to 4G LTE in Europe.
On Monday, J.P. Morgan said massive sales of Apple's next iPhone could boost the U.S. gross domestic product. Economist Michael Feroli estimated that sales could add between one quarter and one half a percentage point to fourth-quarter annualized U.S. GDP growth in 2012.
Apple is expected to officially unveil its new iPhone on Wednesday at a media event scheduled for 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage of the presentation.
Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan on Monday took a look at the larger implications of Apple's anticipated "iPhone 5" debut. He believes the entire technology "food chain" will have winners and losers as a result of Apple's latest handset.
Some of the biggest losers out of the new iPhone launch will be competing smartphone makers who have existing 4G LTE handsets on the market. Moskowitz expects that Apple's so-called "iPhone 5" will offer better battery performance in a smaller form factor that will further label competing devices as battery and pocket "hogs."
While non-Apple handset makers will be negatively affected by the new iPhone, Moskowitz also believes Apple's latest smartphone will also hurt Windows-based PC makers. The analyst said Monday that the iPhone 5 will "sustain the land grab of smartphones taking IT dollars from PCs, dampening PC-related growth prospects at Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and other PC makers."
The new iPhone is projected to mark one of the few secular growth stories for the semiconductor industry in the second half of 2012. With strong demand for the iPhone 5, companies like Fairchild Semiconductor, Qualcomm and Avago that supply components to Apple are expected to see benefits.
The new iPhone is also expected to benefit LG Display, which is believed to supply in-cell touchscreen panels; Samsung Electronics, which builds Apple's custom processors; and LG Innotek, which is believed to be supplying camera modules.
But the debut of turn-by-turn navigation in Apple's new Maps application for iOS 6 is forecast to have a negative effect on existing GPS service providers TeleNav, TeleCommunication Systems, and Garmin.
As for wireless carriers, Moskowitz expects upgrades to increase, which will have a negative effect on their margins. But in the longer term, the iPhone 5 is expected to accelerate the upgrade cycle to 4G LTE, particularly in the U.S. where the market is dominated by slower 3G phones.
As for Europe, the impact of 4G LTE is "unclear," Moskowitz said, as it is unknown whether the device will support European LTE frequencies. Regardless, he does not believe the new iPhone will be as disruptive with respect to 4G LTE in Europe.
On Monday, J.P. Morgan said massive sales of Apple's next iPhone could boost the U.S. gross domestic product. Economist Michael Feroli estimated that sales could add between one quarter and one half a percentage point to fourth-quarter annualized U.S. GDP growth in 2012.
Apple is expected to officially unveil its new iPhone on Wednesday at a media event scheduled for 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage of the presentation.
Comments
;-)
This is a nice lesson in macro-economics and aggregate demand.
http://tech.lifegoesstrong.com/article/apple-iphone-5-ready-disappointment
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
Moskowitz expects that Apple's so-called "iPhone 5" will offer better battery performance in a smaller form factor that will further label competing devices as battery and pocket "hogs."
The screen size issue really needs to be a careful balance because if the screen gets up in the 4.5" range then it really doesn't fit in the pocket very well. I see a lot of Android phones in belt holster configurations. I have never tried one but it seems like that would be a conflict with auto seat belts.
... and given Apple's rather slow adoption of many of the latest mobile technologies (e.g. LTE, NFC, larger displays, etc) the 'new ' iPhone will largely just be playing catch-up anyway.
Nice to (finally) see an iPhone update, but that's really ALL it is.
The story based on a report from a clown of an analyst that thought he was an economist? The report did prove he wasn't.
Also consider that this time around, being less than a year from the last iPhone launch, no iPhone 4S owner is eligible for an upgrade, so for a least the first month of sales, anyone upgrading will be paying twice the price of a normal iPhone purchase.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor
It's interesting to think about this in the context of the story from yesterday in which somebody said the iPhone 5 will add to growth. If the iPhone 5 just shifts demand from those other companies to Apple, then the net effect on growth could be very small.
This is a nice lesson in macro-economics and aggregate demand.
Is it reasonable to think that someone will choose an iPhone (instead of a cheap android) as their first smartphone? I don't think so. As such, the net effect on growth will be very small, indeed.
I believe that it is safe to assume that pretty much anyone that could afford (or will be able to afford in the near future) an iPhone already has a smartphone. This is why android market share will explode until all markets are saturated. After that 3 situations are plausible:
1) Apple keeps their "small" 10% percentage of handset owners and makes lots of money.
2) Apple market share keeps rising as android and BB owners buy iPhones and apple makes lots of money.
3) Apple falls behind the curve RIM style and still makes lots of money, eventually.
For me, the mid-term between option 1 and 2 is the real deal, as high-end smartphone buyers will pretty much only use the iPhone when the market saturates (just like it happens on the PC market) and the rest won't be able to afford/justify these gadgets.
What do you think? Sorry for my english, I'm Portuguese.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneaburns
This pretty much sums up how I feel
http://tech.lifegoesstrong.com/article/apple-iphone-5-ready-disappointment
what a lame ass article. The iphone 4S was a excellent upgrade from the 4, and it outsold every shitty ass droid phone by a wide margin. The next iphone will again outsell all others, and it's former iterations as well. If you were disappointed that Apple didn't consult you directly to make sure that their phone would be just exactly what you wanted - then too bad.
i am excited for the new iPhone. I will purchase 4 (mine, wife, daughter,mom-in-law) as soon as they are released.
Secular growth stories? Are AI editors so hot and bothered about these fanboi analyst pronouncements that they don't even bother to proofread their articles?
I know a few people think it's fabulous to hold a 5"+ phone up to your face while making a phone call, but most people just think it's stupid and feel like clowns doing it. It's always been my contention that the only reason Android phones started sprouting bigger screens was to hide the fact that they needed to make the cases larger to hold the batteries they needed to get decent battery life. It's something of a trade-off, but by carefully choosing your resolutions and making the "phone" big enough, you can get enough battery life with a 4G phone to make it through the day. In other words, the gigantic screens Android phones are sporting lately are simply camouflage for big, unwieldy cases holding big batteries.
Assuming the new iPhone has 4G/LTE support, and a largely similar form factor, these jumbo-sized Android phones are going to become an increasingly tough sell. Sure, Android handset manufacturers will increase the spiffs they offer, carriers will still favor Android because it gives them more control of their customers and makes them more money, but only the most naive consumers and the handful of irrational zealots will be taken in by these games.
People simply don't want elephantine phones. They want them to be easily portable and easily operated with one hand. Remove any technical differences, like 4G support, and they'll choose the more elegant solution every time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
I know a few people think it's fabulous to hold a 5"+ phone up to your face while making a phone call, but most people just think it's stupid and feel like clowns doing it. It's always been my contention that the only reason Android phones started sprouting bigger screens was to hide the fact that they needed to make the cases larger to hold the batteries they needed to get decent battery life. It's something of a trade-off, but by carefully choosing your resolutions and making the "phone" big enough, you can get enough battery life with a 4G phone to make it through the day. In other words, the gigantic screens Android phones are sporting lately are simply camouflage for big, unwieldy cases holding big batteries.
Assuming the new iPhone has 4G/LTE support, and a largely similar form factor, these jumbo-sized Android phones are going to become an increasingly tough sell. Sure, Android handset manufacturers will increase the spiffs they offer, carriers will still favor Android because it gives them more control of their customers and makes them more money, but only the most naive consumers and the handful of irrational zealots will be taken in by these games.
People simply don't want elephantine phones. They want them to be easily portable and easily operated with one hand. Remove any technical differences, like 4G support, and they'll choose the more elegant solution every time.
a lot of people use very little minutes and rarely talk on the phone
the want the bigger screen because they mostly do SMS and data
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins
Is it reasonable to think that someone will choose an iPhone (instead of a cheap android) as their first smartphone? I don't think so. As such, the net effect on growth will be very small, indeed.
I believe that it is safe to assume that pretty much anyone that could afford (or will be able to afford in the near future) an iPhone already has a smartphone. This is why android market share will explode until all markets are saturated. After that 3 situations are plausible:
1) Apple keeps their "small" 10% percentage of handset owners and makes lots of money.
2) Apple market share keeps rising as android and BB owners buy iPhones and apple makes lots of money.
3) Apple falls behind the curve RIM style and still makes lots of money, eventually.
For me, the mid-term between option 1 and 2 is the real deal, as high-end smartphone buyers will pretty much only use the iPhone when the market saturates (just like it happens on the PC market) and the rest won't be able to afford/justify these gadgets.
What do you think? Sorry for my english, I'm Portuguese.
I actually do think it's reasonable to believe that somebody will pick an iPhone instead of a cheap android phone as their first smartphone. For example, I'm sure that when my niece and nephew are old enough to get smart phones, they'll get iPhones -- their family has the money and they already like Apple products.
But that issue aside, I think it's interesting to note the massive difference between the U.S. and the rest of the world. The iPhone is the dominant smartphone in the US by far, whereas the roles are reversed in the rest of the world. Part of this is probably a price issue -- all smartphones in the US are expensive because of the nature of the contracts from the big three providers (AT&T, VZ, and Sprint), so iPhones don't seem any more expensive to Americans than Android phones. In the rest of the world where there's more competition among competitors and a greater diversity of price points, consumers see a bigger difference in price between the iPhone and Androids, so the iPhone doesn't do as well.
But I think another big difference between the US and the rest of the world is that Apple's ecosystem is much better developed in the US. First, Apple's penetration of retail stores in the US is far higher than anywhere else in the world. This in and of itself is huge. Second, iCloud / iTunes / App Store development is best in the US.
The conclusion I take from this is that if Apple were to greatly expand its retail presence in the rest of the world, get its online services up to the level they are in the US, and provide more appealing pricing options on entry level products (a pricing equivalent of the iPod nano, which could just be the iPhone 3GS continuing to be sold outside of the US at a low price), then Apple could dominate smartphones in the same way Apple dominated music players and is appearing to dominate tablets.
Originally Posted by oneaburns
This pretty much sums up how I feel
http://tech.lifegoesstrong.com/article/apple-iphone-5-ready-disappointment
Except you have absolutely no reason for that.
Originally Posted by DaHarder
Oh Please... It's just another smartphone announcement - Nothing More/Nothing Less.
... and given Apple's rather slow adoption of many of the latest mobile technologies (e.g. LTE, NFC, larger displays, etc) the 'new ' iPhone will largely just be playing catch-up anyway.
Nice to (finally) see an iPhone update, but that's really ALL it is.
If this isn't proof that you should be banned immediately, there is no reason not to rename this place TrollInsider.
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
a lot of people use very little minutes and rarely talk on the phone
the want the bigger screen because they mostly do SMS and data
But most of them still don't want to haul around a small tablet in their pockets or purse.
"Bigger is better" is just a testosterone fueled misconception that even most men grow out of. Not all, but most.
Quote:
Originally Posted by audioinside
"The new iPhone is projected to mark one of the few secular growth stories"
Secular growth stories? Are AI editors so hot and bothered about these fanboi analyst pronouncements that they don't even bother to proofread their articles?
Please check your dictionary before flaming the editors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RogueDogRandy
The iphone 4S was a excellent upgrade from the 4, and it outsold every shitty ass droid phone by a wide margin. The next iphone will again outsell all others, and it's former iterations as well. i am excited for the new iPhone. I will purchase 4 (mine, wife, daughter,mom-in-law) as soon as they are released.
Don't forget to pick up a gallon of the Kool-Aid. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/05/business/la-fi-galaxy-sales-20120906 And that is simply one on one. That does not include the tens of other phones contributing to Android sales dominating iOS sales. But don't worry. Apple will be happy to give you more Kool-Aid since the old may wear off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
But most of them still don't want to haul around a small tablet in their pockets or purse.
"Bigger is better" is just a testosterone fueled misconception that even most men grow out of. Not all, but most.
The iPhone iterations to date are too small. That is why you will see Apple increasing the screen real estate now. Apple lead us into the multi-touch smartphone world. Now they are catching up.