Apple expected to ship 850K iPad minis in first week of sales
As the first iPad mini preorders are being delivered and the tablet hits shelves at brick-and-mortar retailers, shipment forecasts are already being released, with one analyst estimating a total of 850,000 units will go out to consumers over the device's first week of sales.
In a report obtained by AppleInsider, well-informed KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple will likely ship around 850,000 iPad minis in its first week on the market, based on supply chain checks and logistical considerations such as transportation.
Kuo believes that had mass production started sooner than mid-October, the tablet would have seen higher first-week shipments. As it stands, Apple is in short supply of the 7.9-inch device as about 950,000 units were manufactured prior to launch, a statistic reflected in shipment quotes from the Online Apple Store.
The analyst goes on to say his forecast would put Apple at the top of the mid-size tablet market, with shipments outperforming Amazon's Kindle Fire HD and Google Nexus 7, two of the mini's biggest competitors. In the first two days after launch, iPad mini shipments are expected to reach the Fire's half-month shipment numbers and surpass the Nexus 7's average monthly shipments for the fourth quarter.
Amazon forecast shipments of its 7-inch tablet to hit 6 million in the fourth quarter, but Kuo doesn't believe will happen. He said that suppliers are beginning to see a slowdown in shipment momentum for the Fire, as well as the Nexus 7, and added that the larger 8.9-inch Kindle Fire HD is now suffering from production problems.
Kuo sees lucrative holiday quarter shipments at 8.2 million for the iPad mini, followed by 4.5 million for the Kindle Fire HD, and 1.9 million for the Nexus 7. Going further, the Fire and Nexus will both see respective month-to-month declines of 47 percent and 52 percent, while iPad mini shipments will grow 11 percent over the same period due to increases in supply.
After selling out of its initial preorder allotment within hours, Apple conducted its largest product launch ever on Friday as the iPad mini rolled out in 34 countries.
Though Amazon's forecast is more than the chart (6M for 4Q12), very likely Amazon can't do it. Many suppliers are feeling the shipment momentum of Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7 is becoming slow. The other not good news for Amazon is the 8.9" Kindle Fire HD has production problem now.
In a report obtained by AppleInsider, well-informed KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple will likely ship around 850,000 iPad minis in its first week on the market, based on supply chain checks and logistical considerations such as transportation.
Kuo believes that had mass production started sooner than mid-October, the tablet would have seen higher first-week shipments. As it stands, Apple is in short supply of the 7.9-inch device as about 950,000 units were manufactured prior to launch, a statistic reflected in shipment quotes from the Online Apple Store.
The analyst goes on to say his forecast would put Apple at the top of the mid-size tablet market, with shipments outperforming Amazon's Kindle Fire HD and Google Nexus 7, two of the mini's biggest competitors. In the first two days after launch, iPad mini shipments are expected to reach the Fire's half-month shipment numbers and surpass the Nexus 7's average monthly shipments for the fourth quarter.
Amazon forecast shipments of its 7-inch tablet to hit 6 million in the fourth quarter, but Kuo doesn't believe will happen. He said that suppliers are beginning to see a slowdown in shipment momentum for the Fire, as well as the Nexus 7, and added that the larger 8.9-inch Kindle Fire HD is now suffering from production problems.
Kuo sees lucrative holiday quarter shipments at 8.2 million for the iPad mini, followed by 4.5 million for the Kindle Fire HD, and 1.9 million for the Nexus 7. Going further, the Fire and Nexus will both see respective month-to-month declines of 47 percent and 52 percent, while iPad mini shipments will grow 11 percent over the same period due to increases in supply.
After selling out of its initial preorder allotment within hours, Apple conducted its largest product launch ever on Friday as the iPad mini rolled out in 34 countries.
Though Amazon's forecast is more than the chart (6M for 4Q12), very likely Amazon can't do it. Many suppliers are feeling the shipment momentum of Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7 is becoming slow. The other not good news for Amazon is the 8.9" Kindle Fire HD has production problem now.
Comments
Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.
Worse. Gene Munster said the number would be 1.5 million. Some one has got some 'splainin to do'...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJay2012
Worse. Gene Munster said the number would be 1.5 million. Some one has got some 'splainin to do'...
Gene always over-estimates.
Me thinks 1MM is probably a good start (no pre-orders)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.
Crap, is right. Apple's gonna crap all over its competition's marketing plans. Now. if Apple could announce a fantastic outstanding new game, they would own the Christmas buying season.
I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems. At least I am ready for yet another round of stock free fall. Apple is missing a lot of sales, I went to the Apple store after work and it was pack with people wanting the ipad mini. Some people bought the iPad 2 instead but most were disappointed it was unavaible.
The iPad 4 must be the worst possible product refresh launch ever. Nobody was even looking at it with the store completely pack. btw the ipad 4 benchmark are in and its a lot faster than the nexus 10. The Android spec freaks can go back under there rock until the next ipad killer.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/6426/ipad-4-gpu-performance-analyzed-powervr-sgx-554mp4-under-the-hood
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems. At least I am ready for yet another round of stock free fall. Apple is missing a lot of sales, I went to the Apple store after work and it was pack with people wanting the ipad mini. Some people bought the iPad 2 instead but most were disappointed it was unavaible.
The iPad 4 must be the worst possible product refresh launch ever. Nobody was even looking at it with the store completely pack. btw the ipad 4 benchmark are in and its a lot faster than the nexus 10. The Android spec freaks can go back under there rock until the next ipad killer.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/6426/ipad-4-gpu-performance-analyzed-powervr-sgx-554mp4-under-the-hood
Look, you're whining over the best problem any company can have. All things considered, Apple does a stellar job of second guessing demand. Just because some Tom, Dich or Harry get's a wild hair and walks into an Apple store and can't walk out with instant gratification doesn't mean Apple is incompetent.
In addition of offering 6 different models of the mini in the USA, they are also shipping 6 other models to 34 other countries. That's 210 different SKUs and everyone is getting served reasonably well. On another month they are going to double or triple the number of mini SKUs when they ship the LTE versions.
That's right. Stop letting those lazy cChinese workers have breaks. Make them work non stop and much faster because we have folks that must have their stuff on day one.
Talk about a first world problem. This is not a heart transplant after all. It's not life or death. Folks need to get over it and realize that it's not the end of the world that you have to wait. Especially when, at least in the US, they are going to start the whole 'pay online pick up in store' gig as the iPhones tomorrow night (Store manger told me when they were out of the model i was looking for) So you don't have to show up every day to not get your iPad.
34 countries opening weekend plus the timeframe in which we've seen what are now revealed as legitimate HW leaks tells me they have made a lot of these things so a couple million opening weekend does seem possible to me, assuming they have enough buyers.
Besides how can you analyse something that has not happened / does not exist yet, IE purchases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky
Look, you're whining over the best problem any company can have. All things considered, Apple does a stellar job of second guessing demand. Just because some Tom, Dich or Harry get's a wild hair and walks into an Apple store and can't walk out with instant gratification doesn't mean Apple is incompetent.
In addition of offering 6 different models of the mini in the USA, they are also shipping 6 other models to 34 other countries. That's 210 different SKUs and everyone is getting served reasonably well. On another month they are going to double or triple the number of mini SKUs when they ship the LTE versions.
You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently. Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet? Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain. Apple doesn't make the rules of production, Wall Street does. If Wall Street says that Apple HAS to sell a certain number of units over a weekend, then that's what Apple has to do. If Apple doesn't, then the share price is going to drop $20. You think shareholders appreciate that? Apple shouldn't release any product with less than 10 million units in inventory. Tim Cook should anticipate Wall Street's reaction and act accordingly. The last three products Apple released disappointed Wall Street due to inventory shortages. How long is this going to happen before Tim Cook gets a clue? Take some of those billions in reserve cash and get some more factories and workers online or start building fully automated factories that run 24/7. Apple sitting on $124 billion in reserve cash is absolutely useless to shareholders. In one month, Apple has lost $60 billion in market cap. A couple of billion dollars of reserve cash put into device production would have saved tens of billions of dollars in market cap. Wall Street wants instant gratification and it's Tim Cook's responsibility to give them what they want.
/s
Lol. The thing is you have to be more clever than those guys and hit the buy button when the stock gets over sold like that. But I think the main concern on wall street is Apple guide a 15% year of year decline for the holiday quarters. So is Apple really going to make less this year with the iphone 5, the ipad mini and the ipad 4 than it did last year with just the new iphone 4s and the 10 month old ipad2?
This a major trend reversal, between 2010 and 2011 apple did 110% year over year growth. I think the stock is probally going to tank to the lower 500 and then rally to around 600 for the earnings. This is if we dont get any news that hints Apple has really lowball this one. The problem is Apple didnt lowball the previous 2 quarters, they barely beat guidance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
34 countries opening weekend plus the timeframe in which we've seen what are now revealed as legitimate HW leaks tells me they have made a lot of these things so a couple million opening weekend does seem possible to me, assuming they have enough buyers.
They have enough buyers (even though it's a bit more expensive than I'd like). The question only is how many they had made?
Nope. It's in the toilet cause folks were not impressed by the IPad Mini specs for the price, because of the firing of 'iOS Genius' Forstall and Retail disaster Browett, for all the issues with the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 beyond the scuffs and Maps app (although the complaints about the maps data didn't help) and so on.
These issues are being trumped up as 'proof' that Tim Cook can't handle the job and the folks crying about how Apple will tank without Steve were right. So folks are getting out now, which is really what is tanking things.
'Production issues' is a classic and long standing move by analysts to cover up that they are likely wrong about sales projections etc. they can claim they would have been right 'but there were issues'.
http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/03/editorial-amazon-and-google-are-undermining-mobile-pricing/
Of course the author gets totally ripped in the comments section as being an apple fanboy.
As noted by someone, somewhere it's interesting that Apple doesn't paly that game with any of their products. they never did it with Macs and now we have most PC vendors struggling to stay in the black with Apple making about 1/3rd of all PC profits in the world. I suspect that, at worst, the tablet will fall into the same pattern and, at best, we get the iPod scenario all over again where there is no viable PMP but the iPod. Who outside tech forums even refers to the market as the PMP market? You're more likely to hear it called the 3rd-party iPod market.
Personnaly I think the demand is still there. Look at the revenu guidance, its in line with estimates. The problem is EPS. Margins are going to decrease. If sales are still great, this would be a textbook case to buy back shares to temper the margins impacts. Good news is Apple is suppose to start buying back shares since October. On the call they said margins are going to improve in Q2, so Q1 makes if even more attractive for the shares buyback.
Oh and one other thing. There's only one reason some of these non-Apple tables are so cheap. Because that was the only way they could compete. But rather than admit it, they come up with some BS story that they think some gullible people will believe. And even if you think the iPad is overpriced what is the right price for a tablet? Who decided they should be $199 or $249 and no more? Who decides what a fair profit margin is? Obviously the market decides. In the case of Apple it's considered more of a luxury or premium brand. People will pay $200 for a Coach purse when they can get one for $40 at Kohl's. Are they being ripped off? Of course not because they're voluntarily making the choice to buy a product that's more expensive (for a variety of reasons). In the case of Apple people choose to pay a premium for their product. Amazon and Google conglobate dirt cheap route, but I don't see that hurting Apple as much as other hardware OEM's that don't have the means to subsidize their hardware.