Wh… wh… wh… You're saying this without sarcasm. You're literally saying this without sarcasm.
Not ten years ago, Microsoft had 97% of all marketshare. In less than ten years, they've lost 27% marketshare. And you're pretending that they have nothing to worry about?
I seriously don't know why I'm surprised that you're saying this, but I am. I guess I have more faith in you than I should.
So, in TEN YEARS MSFT will be down to mere 50% marketshare? They are doomed! Doomed! Let me rephrase:MSFT is the dominant desktop OS maker, and will remain one for the foreseeable future. I don't have to like, and neither do you, but thems is the facts.
Google's problem is that it isn't actually Android that is "winning," it is Samsung. Samsung could bind all of Google's offerings to Yahoo in a flash and "android" would lose 60% of its market share.
Interesting, but so what? Once people get used to Android, there is inertia which might cause their next phone (which they DO use as a smartphone) to be android too. I don't know if this will happen, but it is certainly a factor.
No, it won't happen, the facts are against it. Most Android users who actually use their phone as smartphones end up regretting their choice and switch to iPhone at their next contract. There is no significant switching in the opposite direction.
So, in TEN YEARS MSFT will be down to mere 50% marketshare?
I dunno. I don't recall saying that or even projecting it. I did say they've lost a large fraction of it already, and that isn't looking to be turning around at any time. Therefore they should certainly care more than the "not at all" posed by him (and agreed with by you).
Wall Street believes Android is winning and winning big over Apple. Google's P/E is 21, Apple's P/E is 12. Google's share price is $695, Apple's share price is $535. To Apple shareholders, it would certainly appear as though Google is basically kicking the crap out of Apple and Android is on the verge of putting Apple and iOS out of business. It would also appear as though the average investor would rather spend close to $700 a share on Google stock rather than spend $540 on Apple stock because they obviously think that Google has more upside than Apple. Only time will tell if this appearance holds up.
However, it does seem as though Wall Street always prefers companies that have very high market share and sells very cheap products. Wall Street firmly believes this is the formula for long-term success. I know that doesn't always work out (both Nokia and RIM are recent prime examples) but that's how Wall Street sees it. Apple's profits, lack of debt and huge cash reserve don't seem to be doing anything for the share price and that is a fact. This is the current reality of the Apple vs Google situation.
I see Android as a fragmented and hard to control OS that's already grown larger than what can be easily managed as far as updates are concerned. There's just too many types of devices in both smartphones and tablets spread over too many companies and carriers. It also seems like a very poor financial model for nearly every company using it save Samsung. I doubt Android has even lived up to Google's financial expectations of ad revenue. So, I don't understand why Wall Street loves Google and Android, but that doesn't change the fact that all I ever hear is bravado about Android gaining ever more market share on a daily basis, somehow always leading to huge Apple losses in the future.
The reason that Wall Street prefers Google to Apple is that Google has something (search, and search advertising) that no one has come even close to challenging over the last decade. Apple makes very good products, but feral ravings on this site notwithstanding, the best of the competition is not so far behind (go to Amazon and check out user reviews for the Lumia 920, many of them by ex-iPhone users), so it is less likely that Apple can maintain its dominance over the next five years than Google. Notice that I did not mention Android, which at the moment is a net loss for Google, but the point is that it can't get any worse. There is a chance Google will monetize it more successfully, or at worst it can just drop it (by completely open-sourcing it). There is really no downside.
I dunno. I don't recall saying that or even projecting it. I did say they've lost a large fraction of it already, and that isn't looking to be turning around at any time. Therefore they should certainly care more than the "not at all" posed by him (and agreed with by you).
I do not agree with the "not at all", but neither do I agree that they are the next RIM.
No, it won't happen, the facts are against it. Most Android users who actually use their phone as smartphones end up regretting their choice and switch to iPhone at their next contract. There is no significant switching in the opposite direction.
I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.
Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!
If they need over 50% they are already failing...The percentage isn't as vital as how big the pie is and how their users interact with their phones. A big portion of the value iOS provides is that the users actually are willing to pay for apps and use them for more things. If they maintain that and maintain a large enough user base (regardless of percentage) developers will still want to develop for them. With computers it lost viability because it was a small number of actual units making the profitability not worth the effort.
Re: "This is of the scale of 20 years ago — Microsoft versus Apple. We're winning that war pretty clearly now."
Except for the fragmentation. 20 years ago, Microsoft shipped Windows 3.1 to everyone: same binary on all Wintel PCs. Android, on the other hand, is broken up into many different versions, the most popular of which is still Gingerbread 2.3, dating back to 2010. It's the largest fragment partly because Amazon forked their own version for use on the Kindle Fire. And, unfortunately for Google, Amazon removed Google's "profit layer."
Another reason for Android's overall market share is the no-name domestic Chinese phone market. Millions of Android activations in China are from oddball forks of Android with Google's "profit layer" stripped out. Just like Amazon's fork: no connection to Google Play. We all know how well Google has done in China in the past. They'll do no better with Android.
How much are u earning , Google? How much is Apple earning? GOOGLE, listen, u aren't EVEN earning earning 1/4 of what Apple earns. With your BIG market share , shame u!
Wall Street believes Android is winning and winning big over Apple. Google's P/E is 21, Apple's P/E is 12. Google's share price is $695, Apple's share price is $535. To Apple shareholders, it would certainly appear as though Google is basically kicking the crap out of Apple and Android is on the verge of putting Apple and iOS out of business. It would also appear as though the average investor would rather spend close to $700 a share on Google stock rather than spend $540 on Apple stock because they obviously think that Google has more upside than Apple. Only time will tell if this appearance holds up.
Last 5 years (2008 recession included):
Where is Google's upside? They've lost 2% over the past 5 years. Apple has gained 179% with almost 3 times as many shares outstanding (obviously because they've been around longer) but still with more earnings per share.
Yes, since Android's release GOOG's stock has gone up 50+%. Through that same period AAPL's stock has increased 280+%. What war are we talking about here?
P/E is not even a tell-all. Amazon's P/E is over 3,000% (not a misprint). AMZN has increased over the past 5 years at the same rate as Apple but they have no earnings to show for it. And they sell their devices at a loss.
AAPL makes money more ways than Google. Google needs your info to make money off it. That's it. Everything they produce -- whether OS (Android/Chrome), services (Gmail/News/Shopping/Youtube), or with their tip-toeing into hardware (Nexus/Chromebook) -- is so they can monetize the information you provide. So if their war was to have more devices so they can have more user information they have won it. Facebook's got more users, though, and Apple doesn't make money that way. If their war was to make more money as a company then that's a war that they are trailing in.
Re: "This is of the scale of 20 years ago — Microsoft versus Apple. We're winning that war pretty clearly now."
Except for the fragmentation. 20 years ago, Microsoft shipped Windows 3.1 to everyone: same binary on all Wintel PCs. Android, on the other hand, is broken up into many different versions, the most popular of which is still Gingerbread 2.3, dating back to 2010. It's the largest fragment partly because Amazon forked their own version for use on the Kindle Fire. And, unfortunately for Google, Amazon removed Google's "profit layer."
Another reason for Android's overall market share is the no-name domestic Chinese phone market. Millions of Android activations in China are from oddball forks of Android with Google's "profit layer" stripped out. Just like Amazon's fork: no connection to Google Play. We all know how well Google has done in China in the past. They'll do no better with Android.
AppleInsider readers: bookmark the above URLs so you can shoot down Android market-share-trolls in the future.
The Android forks don't count in Android activation reports AFAIK, unless they offer Google services. For instance the Amazon tablets aren't counted as they don't have any licensing agreement with Google and thus no Google Play, Google Maps nor any other Google service.
Who knows for certain on every model from every Chinese knock-off. Perhaps they've figured out how to incorporate those without Google's blessing too. Of course if they did all the better for Google I suppose.
I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.
Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!
This so much wrong about this post, I don't know where to start. one thing...the iPhone developer momentum was and is so great because developers get paid, get supported, and have an incredibly easy-to-use iOS SDK. That last part, about the SDK, is very often overlooked as a key to the success of iPhone/iPad and iOS.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Wh… wh… wh… You're saying this without sarcasm. You're literally saying this without sarcasm.
Not ten years ago, Microsoft had 97% of all marketshare. In less than ten years, they've lost 27% marketshare. And you're pretending that they have nothing to worry about?
I seriously don't know why I'm surprised that you're saying this, but I am. I guess I have more faith in you than I should.
So, in TEN YEARS MSFT will be down to mere 50% marketshare? They are doomed! Doomed! Let me rephrase:MSFT is the dominant desktop OS maker, and will remain one for the foreseeable future. I don't have to like, and neither do you, but thems is the facts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
I pose my question to him to you, as well.
"Sense", huh.
I have answered, he can too...
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh
Google's problem is that it isn't actually Android that is "winning," it is Samsung. Samsung could bind all of Google's offerings to Yahoo in a flash and "android" would lose 60% of its market share.
What????
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
Interesting, but so what? Once people get used to Android, there is inertia which might cause their next phone (which they DO use as a smartphone) to be android too. I don't know if this will happen, but it is certainly a factor.
No, it won't happen, the facts are against it. Most Android users who actually use their phone as smartphones end up regretting their choice and switch to iPhone at their next contract. There is no significant switching in the opposite direction.
Originally Posted by igriv
So, in TEN YEARS MSFT will be down to mere 50% marketshare?
I dunno. I don't recall saying that or even projecting it. I did say they've lost a large fraction of it already, and that isn't looking to be turning around at any time. Therefore they should certainly care more than the "not at all" posed by him (and agreed with by you).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo
Wall Street believes Android is winning and winning big over Apple. Google's P/E is 21, Apple's P/E is 12. Google's share price is $695, Apple's share price is $535. To Apple shareholders, it would certainly appear as though Google is basically kicking the crap out of Apple and Android is on the verge of putting Apple and iOS out of business. It would also appear as though the average investor would rather spend close to $700 a share on Google stock rather than spend $540 on Apple stock because they obviously think that Google has more upside than Apple. Only time will tell if this appearance holds up.
However, it does seem as though Wall Street always prefers companies that have very high market share and sells very cheap products. Wall Street firmly believes this is the formula for long-term success. I know that doesn't always work out (both Nokia and RIM are recent prime examples) but that's how Wall Street sees it. Apple's profits, lack of debt and huge cash reserve don't seem to be doing anything for the share price and that is a fact. This is the current reality of the Apple vs Google situation.
I see Android as a fragmented and hard to control OS that's already grown larger than what can be easily managed as far as updates are concerned. There's just too many types of devices in both smartphones and tablets spread over too many companies and carriers. It also seems like a very poor financial model for nearly every company using it save Samsung. I doubt Android has even lived up to Google's financial expectations of ad revenue. So, I don't understand why Wall Street loves Google and Android, but that doesn't change the fact that all I ever hear is bravado about Android gaining ever more market share on a daily basis, somehow always leading to huge Apple losses in the future.
The reason that Wall Street prefers Google to Apple is that Google has something (search, and search advertising) that no one has come even close to challenging over the last decade. Apple makes very good products, but feral ravings on this site notwithstanding, the best of the competition is not so far behind (go to Amazon and check out user reviews for the Lumia 920, many of them by ex-iPhone users), so it is less likely that Apple can maintain its dominance over the next five years than Google. Notice that I did not mention Android, which at the moment is a net loss for Google, but the point is that it can't get any worse. There is a chance Google will monetize it more successfully, or at worst it can just drop it (by completely open-sourcing it). There is really no downside.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
I dunno. I don't recall saying that or even projecting it. I did say they've lost a large fraction of it already, and that isn't looking to be turning around at any time. Therefore they should certainly care more than the "not at all" posed by him (and agreed with by you).
I do not agree with the "not at all", but neither do I agree that they are the next RIM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
No, it won't happen, the facts are against it. Most Android users who actually use their phone as smartphones end up regretting their choice and switch to iPhone at their next contract. There is no significant switching in the opposite direction.
What is your source?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user
I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.
Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!
If they need over 50% they are already failing...The percentage isn't as vital as how big the pie is and how their users interact with their phones. A big portion of the value iOS provides is that the users actually are willing to pay for apps and use them for more things. If they maintain that and maintain a large enough user base (regardless of percentage) developers will still want to develop for them. With computers it lost viability because it was a small number of actual units making the profitability not worth the effort.
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
What is your source?
Any customer satisfaction survey and everyone I know who's ever bought an Android phone. Android isn't winning, and neither are you.
Re: "This is of the scale of 20 years ago — Microsoft versus Apple. We're winning that war pretty clearly now."
Except for the fragmentation. 20 years ago, Microsoft shipped Windows 3.1 to everyone: same binary on all Wintel PCs. Android, on the other hand, is broken up into many different versions, the most popular of which is still Gingerbread 2.3, dating back to 2010. It's the largest fragment partly because Amazon forked their own version for use on the Kindle Fire. And, unfortunately for Google, Amazon removed Google's "profit layer."
Another reason for Android's overall market share is the no-name domestic Chinese phone market. Millions of Android activations in China are from oddball forks of Android with Google's "profit layer" stripped out. Just like Amazon's fork: no connection to Google Play. We all know how well Google has done in China in the past. They'll do no better with Android.
Sources:
Usage share of Android versions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Usage_share_of_Android_versions
Android's China Problem:
http://paidcontent.org/2011/12/08/419-androids-china-problem-schmidt-struggles-to-keeps-apps-in-his-market/
AppleInsider readers: bookmark the above URLs so you can shoot down Android market-share-trolls in the future.
How much are u earning , Google? How much is Apple earning? GOOGLE, listen, u aren't EVEN earning earning 1/4 of what Apple earns. With your BIG market share , shame u!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo
Wall Street believes Android is winning and winning big over Apple. Google's P/E is 21, Apple's P/E is 12. Google's share price is $695, Apple's share price is $535. To Apple shareholders, it would certainly appear as though Google is basically kicking the crap out of Apple and Android is on the verge of putting Apple and iOS out of business. It would also appear as though the average investor would rather spend close to $700 a share on Google stock rather than spend $540 on Apple stock because they obviously think that Google has more upside than Apple. Only time will tell if this appearance holds up.
Last 5 years (2008 recession included):
Where is Google's upside? They've lost 2% over the past 5 years. Apple has gained 179% with almost 3 times as many shares outstanding (obviously because they've been around longer) but still with more earnings per share.
Yes, since Android's release GOOG's stock has gone up 50+%. Through that same period AAPL's stock has increased 280+%. What war are we talking about here?
P/E is not even a tell-all. Amazon's P/E is over 3,000% (not a misprint). AMZN has increased over the past 5 years at the same rate as Apple but they have no earnings to show for it. And they sell their devices at a loss.
AAPL makes money more ways than Google. Google needs your info to make money off it. That's it. Everything they produce -- whether OS (Android/Chrome), services (Gmail/News/Shopping/Youtube), or with their tip-toeing into hardware (Nexus/Chromebook) -- is so they can monetize the information you provide. So if their war was to have more devices so they can have more user information they have won it. Facebook's got more users, though, and Apple doesn't make money that way. If their war was to make more money as a company then that's a war that they are trailing in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid
Re: "This is of the scale of 20 years ago — Microsoft versus Apple. We're winning that war pretty clearly now."
Except for the fragmentation. 20 years ago, Microsoft shipped Windows 3.1 to everyone: same binary on all Wintel PCs. Android, on the other hand, is broken up into many different versions, the most popular of which is still Gingerbread 2.3, dating back to 2010. It's the largest fragment partly because Amazon forked their own version for use on the Kindle Fire. And, unfortunately for Google, Amazon removed Google's "profit layer."
Another reason for Android's overall market share is the no-name domestic Chinese phone market. Millions of Android activations in China are from oddball forks of Android with Google's "profit layer" stripped out. Just like Amazon's fork: no connection to Google Play. We all know how well Google has done in China in the past. They'll do no better with Android.
Sources:
Usage share of Android versions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Usage_share_of_Android_versions
Android's China Problem:
http://paidcontent.org/2011/12/08/419-androids-china-problem-schmidt-struggles-to-keeps-apps-in-his-market/
AppleInsider readers: bookmark the above URLs so you can shoot down Android market-share-trolls in the future.
The Android forks don't count in Android activation reports AFAIK, unless they offer Google services. For instance the Amazon tablets aren't counted as they don't have any licensing agreement with Google and thus no Google Play, Google Maps nor any other Google service.
Who knows for certain on every model from every Chinese knock-off. Perhaps they've figured out how to incorporate those without Google's blessing too. Of course if they did all the better for Google I suppose.
Perhaps Eric missed this chart the other day... Looks like Apple is 'clearly' winning...
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user
I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.
Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!
This so much wrong about this post, I don't know where to start. one thing...the iPhone developer momentum was and is so great because developers get paid, get supported, and have an incredibly easy-to-use iOS SDK. That last part, about the SDK, is very often overlooked as a key to the success of iPhone/iPad and iOS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jr_b
I know several people that have switched from regular mobile phones or Blackberry's to Android. All of them have now switched to the iPhone.
Google should strive to be like Apple when it comes to Android phones.
They tried making their own phone and it spectacularly bombed so they killed it.