Android growth prior to iPhone 5 launch further established market dominance

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  • Reply 61 of 185

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


     


    Precisely.. So why does Appleinsider give this douche the time of day.



     


    Probably is connected to the fact that lots of people are commenting on this article. image


     


    Apple Insider is just taking the bait like every other outlet. I find it most helpful to know who is really behind this and why they are manipulating public perception the way they are?  I wonder about Charles Wolf's underlying interests as an analyst of Needham & Company - an independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies.


     


    Perhaps we should contact Charles directly to be sure no funny business is going on.  I'm only half being sarcastic. 


     


    image


    Charles Wolf

    Senior Analyst, Digital Lifestyle


    Telephone: (212) 705-0447

    Email: [email protected]


     


    honestly i did not photoshop his finger - that is the way it came off their site.

  • Reply 62 of 185
    ash471ash471 Posts: 705member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Hunabku View Post


    Your post is spot on for the most part except . . .


     


    Some people truly want andriod devices because they have feature advantages over the iphone - i.e. bigger screen etc.  Of course taken as a whole the andriod experience is sub-par for the typical consumer - but the consumer knows or at least thinks he knows what he wants.  And yes sometimes the sales rep is there to help the buyer convince himself that he wants an andriod device.



    No, the decision to choose an Android has nothing to do with a sales rep.  It has everything to do with pricing and advertising.  The Android phones are FREE and heavily marketed.  The reason for this has nothing to do with Google/Samsung charging less for their Android phones (although that does help with giving them away).  The main reason for pushing Android phones is that the iPhone is capable of controlling the markets.  The irony is that cell phone companies actually make more money from Apple devices because they can take market share from their competitors.  While that makes the device highly desirable, it also scares cell phone companies to death.  They know eventually all the cell phone companies will be selling the iPhone and Apple could dictate pricing and extract ALL THE VALUE out of the telcom industry.  The power of the iPhone truly caught the telcom industry off guard.  Verizon created the Android market and continues to push the Android market as a counterbalance to Apple's market power.  


     


    Yes of course there are a few people that like Android devices and buy them because they want them.  However, that number is very tiny in the grand scheme of things.  Nobody is putting their company on the line for Samsung Gallaxy IIIS like Sprint did to get an iPhone contract.  Nobody is trying to get rid of a multi-billion dollar subsidiary like T-mobile USA because they picked the wrong data transmission frequency that turned out to be incompatible with the iPhone.


     


    The only major telcom in the World (that I'm aware of) that is refusing to play ball with Apple is China Mobile.  China is a different place.  I know enough about China to know not to predict the outcome of any business battle going on there.

  • Reply 63 of 185


    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

    Seriously though... Apple will never have the bigger number on the market share chart.


     


    I don't buy that.

  • Reply 64 of 185
    I agree. I figure that Android is the "default phone". It's a no-brainer sale; you want this regular phone that might have a calendar or address book and ring tones, or do you want a smart phone? So the consumer of course wants a Smart Phone, and you've got Android and the other two phones, and then you've got the pricey iPhone.

    Now unless they got the Samsung Galaxy (the "Microsoft Windows" knockoff of the iPhone -- let's not kid ourselves), chances are, your experience may not be so awesome -- but if this is the ONLY smart phone you know, you might be happy.

    After people have graduated to smart phones, they'll be Apple customers -- because those Android phones are going to be less upgradeable, and have more issues over time. Just wait for the "buy the virus cleaner" and "oh, you got the wrong version of the software" or the old favorite; "we'll just wipe the drive and reinstall -- it will be ready in no time."

    The momentary horse race is going to show a "trend" if you only sample a few months, or if you don't pay attention that "Smart Phones" in general are wiping out other phones.

    Samsung and Google got a great boost from copying Apple, but from here on out they'll be doing their own research. It's not going to be a slam dunk for anyone, really. The consumer will be doing fine. My main concern is if Samsung continues to be successful cannibalizing innovators in electronics. It's really sick seeing them rewarded.

    However, we can look forward to them as a geriatric company like Microsoft that one day thinks it got rich and powerful by innovation (believing their own spin), and they start trying to make their own things from scratch. THAT will be when we see internal competition and a lot of fiefdom's of egos infighting.

    And meanwhile, the "Android based phone" companies will struggle to differentiate themselves in various flavors of "just as good as iPhone", and then you'll get more headaches for developers.
  • Reply 65 of 185
    I don't buy that.

    I hope you're right :)
  • Reply 66 of 185


    Just curious, was this the quarter prior to the iPhone 5 release?  I guess until Apple makes phones that you can use to bump-transfer dirty videos to your spouse, Android is the runaway winner.  I guess Google TV will be on everyone's TV as well in a year or so (again), and all developers will develop mainly for Android first (again).  Of course pigs will then fly, and the Browns will win the Superbowl.  Marketshare Marketshare Marketshare, these hacks are broken records.  You would think they would have learned by now.

  • Reply 67 of 185
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

     


    That link may be misleading if one doesn't read it thoroughly. But when you do, a plausible explanation (and a better one that Android users being too dumb to use Wifi) emerges.


     


    As it turns out, the very first article comment / correction by the author himself, essentially negates his entire theory:


     


    "One thing I forgot to mention. Guy Podjarny told me that "mobile browsers" include tablets. So part of the disparity could the success of the iPad versus Android tablets. The assumption would be that iPads are more likely to both be on Wi-Fi and be used for more browsing."


     


    Quote:


    The Wifi traffic includes tablets. Particularly in the US, the iPad margin over Android tablets more than makes up for the Android margin over iPhones. Would be interesting to see the trends outside the US - something that Akamai promises for the future.




     


    You're right.


     


    Another oft-quoted source is Chitika's ad network report, currently showing iOS with 65% and Android with 35% (of ad impressions... why would anyone brag they see more ads?  Never mind).


     


    And it turns out that the discrepancy is exactly what you, the article author and others have already suggested:


     


    "While third-party and our own observations have pegged smartphone Web traffic share as a near-tie, Apple has a decided advantage in the tablet market, where its iPad is unquestionably the hottest seller in the sector.  This advantage is the largest contributing factor to Apple’s lead over Android."


     


    Even when comparing the iPad to just the iPhone, the iPad can make the iPhone's web usage look poor.


     


    "...the proportion of iPad and iPhone usage can vary dramatically. The Hollywood Reporter gets 41% of its monthly US iOS traffic from iPad devices, Time is even more iPad-heavy with 70% of its US mobile web users preferring the iPad experience and Dailymotion sees an incredible 78% of its iOS mobile Web users accessing the site from iPads."


     


    TL;DR - iOS and Android smartphones have the same amount of web traffic.   Adding in the iPad  skews the results for BOTH types of smartphones, probably due to the tablet predominately using WiFi, whereas smartphones mostly use cellular comms.  

  • Reply 68 of 185
    I'm really noticing the manipulation of Public Perception. Apple has been painted as a "lawsuit happy company" -- you know, after their main developer Microsoft rode off with all their innovations in OS and made Windows, and then they had that google board member working on the android at the same time while their main manufacturer (Samsung), redesigns their cell phones around this really cool device they've got getting fabbed on their factory floor.

    The average person thinks Apple was fighting over "rounded corners and grids of icons" and didn't bother to see the thousands of little touches that nobody nailed down but all make up what everyone thinks of with a smart phone.


    And now Forbes and a few others helped paint Apple as the Chinese sweat shop company (ignoring that they've been pushing for years for better standards and wages and the hundreds of other companies who manufacture in China), while they herald Samsung (a company made from Chinese sweat shops) as the good guy -- go figure.


    There is more effort in media spin than in innovation these days, but despite that, Apple is doing fine -- and fortunately (or sadly) the average consumer wouldn't care if the phone was made from baby seals... the articles on Slashdot or from Tech Pundits only reverberate as far as the next geek.

    Every large industry is constantly passing around lawsuits -- but you wouldn't know that if you just read the trade papers. It's really curious how this happened. It's gratifying that it hasn't influenced the market all that much -- it just allows people to feel smug about their "enlightened purchase" of the sweat shop produced Android phone with toxic parts and making profits for IP thieves. All the information flowing through this device will be data mined and sold around the world -- but hey, it was $100 bucks cheaper!
  • Reply 69 of 185


     


    There have been numerous studies done by several different companies tracking different metrics from actual internet usage to advertising impressions and even to shopping on Black Friday. They all come up with similar numbers that show 2:1 for iPhones over Android phones and almost 9:1 for iPads over Android tablets.




    The fact that the study you linked can't even break out iPads from iPhones shows how reliable their analytics software is. Modern analytics software can easily identify the device, OS version and even manufacturer. I use the basic version of Google Analytics on my website and even it can separate iPhones from iPads or tell me how many Samsung Galaxy or LG Optimus visitors I've had to my site.


     


    I'm surprised you didn't try and pull the "Android users can change their user agent so they don't show up as mobile" crap that so many Android users still try to peddle as an excuse for the traffic disparity between iOS and Android.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


    Another shift of the goal posts.


     


    Here's a brief history of claims on this site:


    1. Android phones will never sell in Apple's new market.


    2. Android will never outsell iOS.


    3. No single company will sell more phones than Apple.


     


    Do you see the trend?  The business model for Android lends itself to market domination, and whether or not you want to believe it, Android will control the smartphone market within a couple years.  But Apple is not going anywhere.  Apple will continue to gain sales but at a rate that gives them a shrinking portion of the pie.  Get your head out of the sand!



     


    Hardly shifting. The people that count (developers and advertisers) use these same numbers to decide where they should spend their money. That's why iOS also has a 2:1 advantage over Android in terms of developer support. Nobody wants to waste time coding for a device that the user never even uses as it's intended. It's also why App quality is superior on iOS and why iOS usually gets the first version of something new.


     


    And where did you get that "history of claims" from? I don't recall anyone making those claims. Or are you going to take the opinions of a few fanboys with extreme views and try to apply them to the rest of us?

  • Reply 70 of 185

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by KDarling View Post


     


    As it turns out, the very first article comment / correction by the author himself, essentially negates his entire theory:


     


    "One thing I forgot to mention. Guy Podjarny told me that "mobile browsers" include tablets. So part of the disparity could the success of the iPad versus Android tablets. The assumption would be that iPads are more likely to both be on Wi-Fi and be used for more browsing."


     


     


    You're right.


     


    Another oft-quoted source is Chitika's ad network report, currently showing iOS with 65% and Android with 35% (of ad impressions... why would anyone brag they see more ads?  Never mind).


     


    And it turns out that the discrepancy is exactly what you, the article author and others have already suggested:


     


    "While third-party and our own observations have pegged smartphone Web traffic share as a near-tie, Apple has a decided advantage in the tablet market, where its iPad is unquestionably the hottest seller in the sector.  This advantage is the largest contributing factor to Apple’s lead over Android."


     


    Even when comparing the iPad to the iPhone, the iPad makes the iPhone's web usage look poor.


     


    "...the proportion of iPad and iPhone usage can vary dramatically. The Hollywood Reporter gets 41% of its monthly US iOS traffic from iPad devices, Time is even more iPad-heavy with 70% of its US mobile web users preferring the iPad experience and Dailymotion sees an incredible 78% of its iOS mobile Web users accessing the site from iPads."


     


    TL;DR - iOS and Android smartphones have the same amount of web traffic.   Adding in the iPad  skews the results for BOTH types of smartphones, probably due to the tablet predominately using WiFi, whereas smartphones mostly use cellular comms.  



     


    I will quote you when I interview for Charles Wolf's job ;-)

  • Reply 71 of 185

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fake_William_Shatner View Post



    I'm really noticing the manipulation of Public Perception. Apple has been painted as a "lawsuit happy company" -- you know, after their main developer Microsoft rode off with all their innovations in OS and made Windows, and then they had that google board member working on the android at the same time while their main manufacturer (Samsung), redesigns their cell phones around this really cool device they've got getting fabbed on their factory floor. The average person thinks Apple was fighting over "rounded corners and grids of icons" and didn't bother to see the thousands of little touches that nobody nailed down but all make up what everyone thinks of with a smart phone. And now Forbes and a few others helped paint Apple as the Chinese sweat shop company (ignoring that they've been pushing for years for better standards and wages and the hundreds of other companies who manufacture in China), while they herald Samsung (a company made from Chinese sweat shops) as the good guy -- go figure.




    If the "average" person has been thus manipulated, why do so many surveys show that close to half or over half of the people planning to buy a smartphone are contemplating the iPhone? Please give the "average" person more credit.


     


    I do agree there has been more attention focused on Apple (particularly the New York Times series). But I don't recall seeing any articles calling Samsung "the good guy" (although there are some lauding their success). Can you show me a few examples?

  • Reply 72 of 185

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

     


     


    This will continue to be a two-horse race.  Apple will sell devices that people want and Google will continue to service devices that cell phone companies want to give away.  



    Agreed. Rather like Lincoln has ended up making "airport" cars and GM, Ford and Chrysler (for a time) were basically making cars for the rental car companies.


     


    My daughter is a an MD and when I go to her parties where all her friends are MD's, they all have iPhones and iPads and Macs.


     


    I've said it here before, ~70% of the American economy is driven by the consumer. But 50% of the economy is driven by the top 10% of Americans. The top 10% is Apple's target. It just so happens some of those top 10% also run the Fortune 500 companies where 90%+ have incorporated or are testing iPhones and iPads!


     


    On a side note, China is 1.3 billion people, but half their population is still in poverty, (perhaps, not for long!)


     


    I never see these two important facts in any articles about anything. Especially the first one.

  • Reply 73 of 185
    sr2012sr2012 Posts: 896member
    Told y'all so.
  • Reply 74 of 185
    I say Apple should allow HTC to license iOS and bring some additional device choices to the market.
  • Reply 75 of 185
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member


    Google is winning the "race," all right - the Race To The Bottom. no doubt 75% of the world's phones - they will all be "smartphones" soon - could wind up some flavor - many forked - of Android. these will be mostly the cheap "free + contract" phones - which is simply all that 2/3 of the world can afford. so only 1/12 of the world will actually prefer Android - 8.5%. if Apple holds just 20% of that future global market - a lot more than that - at premium prices it will be the world's biggest and most profitable company. that isn't exactly "losing."


     


    all the others - RIM, MS, and ? - will be lucky to not get totally squeezed out and hang on to the other 5% combined. very good chance RIM won't survive (someone else will buy its carcass/OS), and Windows Phone becomes MS' permanent "hobby."


     


    i'm amazed anyone pays these "analysts" to come up with such stupid drivel.

  • Reply 76 of 185
    I say Apple should allow HTC to license iOS and bring some additional device choices to the market.

    So instead of Apple selling a $650 phone and making roughly $300 in pure profit... they should only make $50 in iOS license fees?

    That doesn't sound like a good idea...
  • Reply 77 of 185
    macrulezmacrulez Posts: 2,455member


    deleted

  • Reply 78 of 185
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


     


    I will quote you when I interview for Charles Wolf's job ;-)



     


    Good.  I hope you get the job.  Right now, the idea that any one OS will "take over the market" is a bit simplistic.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post



    So instead of Apple selling a $650 phone and making roughly $300 in pure profit... they should only make $50 in iOS license fees?

    That doesn't sound like a good idea...


     


    Using Apple's financial reports to figure out percentages, it works out to be about $200 in pure profit on a $650 phone.  Which is still a lot.  And it really goes up if the user gets a model with more storage at Apple's massive Flash markup.


     


    Anyway, as far as license fees, Apple already revealed in a trial, that at one time they were thinking of charging $30 for a phone using much of their technology (but not including iOS)...


     


    image

  • Reply 79 of 185
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    Use Lightning adapter as an model, Apple could do the unthinkable: License iOS to OEM's

    I wouldnt do that. But how about apple making an iOS phone for someone else? For example Apple could make yahoo brand phone and tablet that runs on ios. Yahoo could strike a deal on the ecosystem and used apple apps stores with a share of the profits for yahoo phones.

    Just saying, would be a way to make cheaper ios devices, but not with the apple brand. While at it they could try to get the Nook and Kobo to run on iOs. Why not try to make a deal with Amazon, those guys have to adapt android so they lag the google version. Why not have apple make whatever hardware they want and have it run ios. Amazon could still have its own store on those devices.
  • Reply 80 of 185
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,386member


    Hey AppleInsider, can you please post an article everytime a fucking analyst spouts some  useless horse-shit prediction?


     


    Oh wait, nevermind, you're already on top of that.

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