I love this forum. [a lot of stuff entirely irrelevant to the point]
Besides not believing your tablet numbers (and it's kind of funny because, in other threads, the iOS web usage advantage is explained away by Apple's tablet dominance, so here we see them arguing both sides), nothing in your post addressed the issue that people just don't stick to Android, and, thus, their sales growth is likely to collapse as people try it for their first smartphone, after being talked into it by the carrier, and then increasingly reject it for their next.
Besides not believing your tablet numbers (and it's kind of funny because, in other threads, the iOS web usage advantage is explained away by Apple's tablet dominance, so here we see them arguing both sides), nothing in your post addressed the issue that people just don't stick to Android, and, thus, their sales growth is likely to collapse as people try it for their first smartphone, after being talked into it by the carrier, and then increasingly reject it for their next.
You won't believe his numbers and then you make a claim without even providing any numbers at all. That's about part for the course I'd say.
Regarding the claim of user retention,do you have any evidence of that? The only numbers I've seen that are even remotely applicable are user satisfaction surveys but that doesn't equate to user retention for the entire platform.
You won't believe his numbers and then you make a claim without even providing any numbers at all. That's about part for the course I'd say.
Regarding the claim of user retention,do you have any evidence of that? The only numbers I've seen that are even remotely applicable are user satisfaction surveys but that doesn't equate to user retention for the entire platform.
You need to actually, you know, read the thread, then you won't be asking silly questions like your second paragraph.
I don't believe his numbers because they're at odds with any meaningful measure that could verify them. They claim to be ownership numbers, but they are contradicted by web usage stats, and no I don't believe every Android user changes their user agent (yeah, right). They might possibly be in line with "shipped numbers" but we know there's a lot of channel stuffing in the Android channels and the actual sales are quite smooth. I also just don't see anyone in the wild with Android tablets, and, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Kindle Fire outsells all Android tablets combined. So, no, I don't believe the numbers he posted are accurate. If you think they are, feel free to provide a defense of them.
Because lots of people are still buying their first smartphone. Android's troubles begin when all those users have been churned through. Apple's sales keep growing too, so it's not like people have stopped buying iPhones. The point is that, from what I've seen, Android is simply unable to retain users, and, "its market share keeps growing," doesn't address that issue.
But your premise could only be correct if the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android. Think about that for a minute before replying.
It's difficult to know what you mean by "your premise", but there's nothing in what I wrote that depends on "the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android." If Android can't retain customers because people don't really like it and the phones don't really work that well, it doesn't matter what heights their market share reach before it collapses.
You need to actually, you know, read the thread, then you won't be asking silly questions like your second paragraph.
I don't believe his numbers because they're at odds with any meaningful measure that could verify them. They claim to be ownership numbers, but they are contradicted by web usage stats, and no I don't believe every Android user changes their user agent (yeah, right). They might possibly be in line with "shipped numbers" but we know there's a lot of channel stuffing in the Android channels and the actual sales are quite smooth. I also just don't see anyone in the wild with Android tablets, and, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Kindle Fire outsells all Android tablets combined. So, no, I don't believe the numbers he posted are accurate. If you think they are, feel free to provide a defense of them.
I read the thread, and I think the numbers speak for themselves.
1) Apple is safe in tablets. I don't think that anybody will take their lead. The only competitors are giving it away, keeping the other Android competitors at bay. 2) Apple is safe in the US 3) this 75% is one quarter. The installed base is about even.
That's the good news. Bad news is that 75% in one quarter will quickly become the installed base.
Solution is simple.
Cheap phones or licence iOS. To those of you who oppose the licensing of iOS because they make $200 on iPhones now - the answer is the margins on the cheap phones will be about $50. And licensing saves brand dilution on the phone if not, necessarily the OS. It gives an advantage to HTC or whomever when competing against Android clones. Whether that beats "free" is a guess. Possibly not ( and if not Windows is also fucked).
The purists here oppose cheap Apple phones. Get real. It may not apply to the US - it may not even happen in the US ( no need to dilute the brand there) but it is needed elsewhere. Unlocked phones off contract will avoid the pitfalls of competing on the shelves of carrier companies where the salesman gets a commission because google is sharing revenue, and the carriers are making money from their installed apps.
Cheap PAYG phones can be sold simless in any electrical shop - or anywhere - and you get a microsim when and where you need it. A different carrier every month if you can transfer numbers. Selling outside carrier shops puts Apple back in the driver seat, and we know they plan this because they wanted programmable sims.
They probably have been as surprised as anybody by Androids ascendancy - the meteoric rise so far. I think they will bite the bullet on cheap iPhones when some other product takes up the slack on margins. Cough. Tv. Cough.
Wealthiest corporation on the planet.
Breaks its own sales and profit records every single quarter.
"Needed."
We're talking market share. However if profits be your thing, here's a history lesson for you.
There once was a very rich American company which had huge profits in the PC business even though it had only 12% of the market share at peak , not much less than Apple in mobile share now , huge loyalty and massive retention rates. In fact the loyalty was such that most of that 12% continued to buy that companies computers many years later; however nobody else did having never had a chance to buy the stuff cheaply. So when, a few years on, the market increased fourfold the company found itself at 3% of the market, and developers left in droves, share price and profits collapsed.
I know because I was that soldier.
Sorry. Sorry carried away there.
Apple was that soldier.
The market is factoring in apple repeating history again which is why the p/e ratio sucks.
Dayum! There is $450 worth of parts, manufacturing and other stuff in every 16GB iPhone?
That's kinda crazy!
Pretty close. People constantly talk about the Bill of Materials and then say things like, "Well there's also R&D", but nobody calculates the total figures. So I did, using the best available information:
Trial documents have recently revealed that Apple makes an average 53% gross profit margin on a $640 iPhone. In other words, $340 is their raw revenue after paying $300 for the parts, manufacturing, packaging, shipping, and patent licenses per device.
Of that $340 gross per phone, Apple financial statements indicate that about $20 goes to overall Apple R&D, $50 to pay for Apple employees and buildings and sales and ads, and $70 is put aside for both actually paid and possible taxes if Apple ever decides to bring overseas earnings back to the US and pay taxes on it... leaving a nice net profit of $200 (30% net margin) per phone.
Summary: Out of the $640 Apple sells each iPhone for, $300 goes to making it, $140 goes to corporate costs and tax, leaving $200 or more clear profit to stick in the bank.
Comments
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
I love this forum. [a lot of stuff entirely irrelevant to the point]
Besides not believing your tablet numbers (and it's kind of funny because, in other threads, the iOS web usage advantage is explained away by Apple's tablet dominance, so here we see them arguing both sides), nothing in your post addressed the issue that people just don't stick to Android, and, thus, their sales growth is likely to collapse as people try it for their first smartphone, after being talked into it by the carrier, and then increasingly reject it for their next.
You won't believe his numbers and then you make a claim without even providing any numbers at all. That's about part for the course I'd say.
Regarding the claim of user retention,do you have any evidence of that? The only numbers I've seen that are even remotely applicable are user satisfaction surveys but that doesn't equate to user retention for the entire platform.
deleted
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance
You won't believe his numbers and then you make a claim without even providing any numbers at all. That's about part for the course I'd say.
Regarding the claim of user retention,do you have any evidence of that? The only numbers I've seen that are even remotely applicable are user satisfaction surveys but that doesn't equate to user retention for the entire platform.
You need to actually, you know, read the thread, then you won't be asking silly questions like your second paragraph.
I don't believe his numbers because they're at odds with any meaningful measure that could verify them. They claim to be ownership numbers, but they are contradicted by web usage stats, and no I don't believe every Android user changes their user agent (yeah, right). They might possibly be in line with "shipped numbers" but we know there's a lot of channel stuffing in the Android channels and the actual sales are quite smooth. I also just don't see anyone in the wild with Android tablets, and, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Kindle Fire outsells all Android tablets combined. So, no, I don't believe the numbers he posted are accurate. If you think they are, feel free to provide a defense of them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
...except that its market share keeps growing.
Because lots of people are still buying their first smartphone. Android's troubles begin when all those users have been churned through. Apple's sales keep growing too, so it's not like people have stopped buying iPhones. The point is that, from what I've seen, Android is simply unable to retain users, and, "its market share keeps growing," doesn't address that issue.
deleted
deleted
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
But your premise could only be correct if the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android. Think about that for a minute before replying.
It's difficult to know what you mean by "your premise", but there's nothing in what I wrote that depends on "the rate of growth were the same or better for Apple than it is for Android." If Android can't retain customers because people don't really like it and the phones don't really work that well, it doesn't matter what heights their market share reach before it collapses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
You need to actually, you know, read the thread, then you won't be asking silly questions like your second paragraph.
I don't believe his numbers because they're at odds with any meaningful measure that could verify them. They claim to be ownership numbers, but they are contradicted by web usage stats, and no I don't believe every Android user changes their user agent (yeah, right). They might possibly be in line with "shipped numbers" but we know there's a lot of channel stuffing in the Android channels and the actual sales are quite smooth. I also just don't see anyone in the wild with Android tablets, and, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Kindle Fire outsells all Android tablets combined. So, no, I don't believe the numbers he posted are accurate. If you think they are, feel free to provide a defense of them.
I read the thread, and I think the numbers speak for themselves.
deleted
1) Apple is safe in tablets. I don't think that anybody will take their lead. The only competitors are giving it away, keeping the other Android competitors at bay.
2) Apple is safe in the US
3) this 75% is one quarter. The installed base is about even.
That's the good news. Bad news is that 75% in one quarter will quickly become the installed base.
Solution is simple.
Cheap phones or licence iOS. To those of you who oppose the licensing of iOS because they make $200 on iPhones now - the answer is the margins on the cheap phones will be about $50. And licensing saves brand dilution on the phone if not, necessarily the OS. It gives an advantage to HTC or whomever when competing against Android clones. Whether that beats "free" is a guess. Possibly not ( and if not Windows is also fucked).
The purists here oppose cheap Apple phones. Get real. It may not apply to the US - it may not even happen in the US ( no need to dilute the brand there) but it is needed elsewhere. Unlocked phones off contract will avoid the pitfalls of competing on the shelves of carrier companies where the salesman gets a commission because google is sharing revenue, and the carriers are making money from their installed apps.
Cheap PAYG phones can be sold simless in any electrical shop - or anywhere - and you get a microsim when and where you need it. A different carrier every month if you can transfer numbers. Selling outside carrier shops puts Apple back in the driver seat, and we know they plan this because they wanted programmable sims.
They probably have been as surprised as anybody by Androids ascendancy - the meteoric rise so far. I think they will bite the bullet on cheap iPhones when some other product takes up the slack on margins. Cough. Tv. Cough.
Originally Posted by asdasd
…it is needed elsewhere.
Wealthiest corporation on the planet.
Breaks its own sales and profit records every single quarter.
"Needed."
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Yet, how do you explain that far fewer developers have apps for Android?
iPhone owners have more disposable income.
We're talking market share. However if profits be your thing, here's a history lesson for you.
There once was a very rich American company which had huge profits in the PC business even though it had only 12% of the market share at peak , not much less than Apple in mobile share now , huge loyalty and massive retention rates. In fact the loyalty was such that most of that 12% continued to buy that companies computers many years later; however nobody else did having never had a chance to buy the stuff cheaply. So when, a few years on, the market increased fourfold the company found itself at 3% of the market, and developers left in droves, share price and profits collapsed.
I know because I was that soldier.
Sorry. Sorry carried away there.
Apple was that soldier.
The market is factoring in apple repeating history again which is why the p/e ratio sucks.
Apple is, I hope, wiser than its apologists.
Originally Posted by asdasd
We're talking market share.
And developers refuse to build stuff for Android because of the rampant piracy and lack of money spent there.
Pretty sure Apple's gonna do just fine without a $100 off-contract phone, given that those people wouldn't be buying apps in the first place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip
Dayum! There is $450 worth of parts, manufacturing and other stuff in every 16GB iPhone?
That's kinda crazy!
Pretty close. People constantly talk about the Bill of Materials and then say things like, "Well there's also R&D", but nobody calculates the total figures. So I did, using the best available information:
Trial documents have recently revealed that Apple makes an average 53% gross profit margin on a $640 iPhone. In other words, $340 is their raw revenue after paying $300 for the parts, manufacturing, packaging, shipping, and patent licenses per device.
Of that $340 gross per phone, Apple financial statements indicate that about $20 goes to overall Apple R&D, $50 to pay for Apple employees and buildings and sales and ads, and $70 is put aside for both actually paid and possible taxes if Apple ever decides to bring overseas earnings back to the US and pay taxes on it... leaving a nice net profit of $200 (30% net margin) per phone.
Summary: Out of the $640 Apple sells each iPhone for, $300 goes to making it, $140 goes to corporate costs and tax, leaving $200 or more clear profit to stick in the bank.
deleted