Apple remains 'very optimistic' about upcoming products as analysts cut targets

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
A number of analysts reduced their price targets for Apple on Wednesday, though one who just met with the company's executives said those officials are "very optimistic" about the product pipeline and market position.

Ben A. Reitzes of Barclays Capital met on Wednesday with Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer and Senior Vice President of Worldwide Marketing Phil Schiller. At the company's Cupertino, Calif., headquarters they discussed a number of topics including potential uses for the company's cash as well as future prospects for the iPhone and iPad.

2013 Predictions
Apple's predicted 2013 product pipeline by KGI Securities.


Unsurprisingly, the officials did not hint at where Apple may go in the future. But they did express confidence to Reitzes about where Apple is positioned.

"We believe there is an undying dedication at Apple to innovate ??and its leadership is working hard to prove bears wrong," he said. "We believe the company has a strong product pipeline ramping in (the second half of calendar 2013) ??with new platform innovations as well, in our opinion."

Reitzes still believes that Apple will introduce a lower-cost phone based on the iPhone 5 design later this year, along with a next-generation "iPhone 5S."

But the analyst still lowered his price target on Wednesday, from $575 to $530. Reitzes stressed that this reduction was not a result of his meeting with Schiller and Oppenheimer, but was instead something that his team has been considering for days.

Barclays
Source: Barclays Capital.


Barclays wasn't alone on Wednesday in reducing its price target for AAPL stock, as Citigroup ? which has been bearish on Apple for months ??lowered its projection from $500 to $480. As noted by Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Apple 2.0, Citi's target is one of the lowest forecasts among Wall Street analysts.

And Adnaan Ahmad of Berenberg Bank went one step further, calling the smartphone investment "dead" in a note to investors on Wednesday. He believes investors should concentrate on the smartphone "trade" with companies like Apple and Samsung, rather than long-term holdings.

"Apple and Samsung margins are peaking and growth is going to be driven by the margin-dilutive mid-to-low-end segment in the next 24 months," he said. "In our opinion, this will translate into poorer industry fundamentals."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 89
    cash907cash907 Posts: 893member


    That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?

  • Reply 2 of 89
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member
    You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date."

    Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?
  • Reply 3 of 89
    igrivigriv Posts: 1,177member
    Was it expected that Apple would say: yes, it's true, our upcoming products really suck, and you should sell all your stock. In fact, take a short position...

    Talk about "content free"
  • Reply 4 of 89
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 18,809member


    Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.

  • Reply 5 of 89
    tkell31tkell31 Posts: 216member


    Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."  Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average.  Not saying they wont continue to be a cash cow, but EPS contraction will start next quarter and continue unless they come up with a new, high margin product that would have mass appeal.  So lets get the dividend up to 3.5% and at least make the wait more enjoyable.

  • Reply 6 of 89


    It's Raining Men! Hallelujah! - It's Raining Men! Amen!



     

  • Reply 7 of 89
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member


    The year old 4s outsold the Samsung flagship and the iPhone 5 DOUBLED the S 3's sales.


     


    That's a lot of money appeal and that's what piles up the cash. Not loss leader "marketshare" filler.

  • Reply 8 of 89
    ricochetricochet Posts: 15member
    "We believe there is an undying dedication at Apple to innovate and its leadership is working hard to prove bears wrong," he said.

    I doubt anyone at Apple is working hard to 'prove' anything to anyone. They're working to create great stuff. Why "react" when you can "create"?
  • Reply 9 of 89
    tribalogicaltribalogical Posts: 1,171member
    Wow... if Apple actually does dip down to anywhere near that $325 "downside" over the next 12 months, I'm going to be buying everything I can get my hands on. Especially if their market position remains as strong as it is. At that price, there will be nowhere to go but up.

    $325… At current earnings levels…? Are we really heading down to below a 5x multiplier on Apple?

    I agree with anantksundaram. Not doubling down on Apple at these prices is something people will look back on with regret…
  • Reply 10 of 89
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post


    That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?



     


     I actually think being so quite is hurting them these days.  If their new schedule is to go 6 months without any product announcement (assuming we won't see anything until WWDC) that's a long time to be silent and creates a vacuum that right now is being filled with FUD and D&G.  Part of me is hoping they have something to announce in April or May.  But another part is not wanting them to release anything that's not ready, and not to release just for the sake of it, just to fill a lull in the calendar.

  • Reply 11 of 89
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 18,809member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post


    Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."  Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average.  



    Care to name a major Apple product that's not great?


     


    That is the 'average' for Apple. You're confusing Apple and the industry.

  • Reply 12 of 89
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post


    That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?



     


    Thank goodness my computing devices are NOT made by a company who "watches their stock holdings on a daily basis."


     


    Long-term (read: smart) investors are glad too.


     


     




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post


    Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" ...



     


    I don't believe he does.

  • Reply 13 of 89
    jwint04jwint04 Posts: 1member


    It's somewhat strange that the Goldman Sachs forecast of $660 somehow slipped from the news reports.  They ranked Apple at $442 a bargain!  In any case, after spending 40 years in high tech sales and marketing, I'm comfortable with their numbers and outlook.  Forbes called them the most respected Company in the world and a positive cash flow last quarter of $23 Billion isn't all that bad.  Time will tell, but I believe Apple is an 800 pound gorilla that is under attack for not inventing the wheel twice a year.  

  • Reply 14 of 89
    auxioauxio Posts: 1,934member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ricochet View Post



    "We believe there is an undying dedication at Apple to innovate and its leadership is working hard to prove bears wrong," he said.



    I doubt anyone at Apple is working hard to prove anyone wrong. They're working to create great stuff. Why "react" when you can "create"?


     


    Exactly.  Some of us actually care about the future of technology and creating/using great products which enrich and fundamentally change our lives.  Unfortunately, the people who only know money have somehow been heralded as the technological visionaries in recent times.

  • Reply 15 of 89
    kpluckkpluck Posts: 500member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.



     


    Nope, because by that time the financial fantasy world that the US Government and economy have been living in will have collapsed and the sales of expensive goods like Apple's products will take a major tumble.


     


    -kpluck

  • Reply 16 of 89
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member


    And where's the MacPro system?  That should be announced either later this month or next quarter.  There's 3 years of pent up demand for that product.  While it's not a HUGE amount of money like the iPhone, it should at least help matters with regards to June quarter sales if it gets announced this month, if they delay it until next quarter, then it will improve the Sept quarter numbers.

  • Reply 17 of 89
    pedromartinspedromartins Posts: 1,333member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post


    That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?



    Are you as limited as them?


     


    Aren't you tired of watching Apple not being able to keep up with demand, selling more and more of everything, making more money than all OEMs + Microsoft and google together?

  • Reply 18 of 89
    virtuavirtua Posts: 206member
    New design retina mac book pro in q3 doesn't make sense and there is no mention of the imminent Mac Pro.
  • Reply 19 of 89
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

    Cook calls everything they release… …"perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect."


     


    Citation needed.





    Originally Posted by virtua View Post

    New design retina mac book pro in q3 doesn't make sense and there is no mention of the imminent Mac Pro.


     


    That chart has ALWAYS been BS. I have no idea why AI keeps using it.

  • Reply 20 of 89
    "You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date." Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?"

    Um, let's see . . . If you divide a 12 month calendar into quarters, how many months would each quarter have? - Stock Weenie : )
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