Apple was speculatively bubbled by margin hogs and then imploded by well-intentioned profit-takers and ruthless Wall Street shorts. It's that simple and has little or nothing to do with the realities of Tim's leadership.
Apple's delayed launches and product contraints (where they actually exist) have plenty of precedence and may currently be attributed, in part, to a) a new SVP of Operations who is not named Tim Cook; b) strained talent resources and trying to do too much at once and; c) the fact that Tim would prefer inventory shortages to inventory glut. He's noted for expressing his strong disdain for keeping inventory. With such tight inventory tolerances, product shortages are an inevitable price to pay.
Seriously, though, in 2013 I would like to see product updates and launches staggered across all four quarters rather than clustered in the second half of the year.
Wow, just because someone is great at something doesn't mean they're perfect.
I wasn't being critical. I'm saying if there are supply chain issues, it would be in spite of great expertise in that area, and likely due to factors other than Tim Cook's ability.
Wow, what a substantive set of responses, guys. /s
What the heck is wrong with someone expressing an opinion that there may be -- indeed, the market must strongly believe there are given $250B in wealth that has been wiped out -- management problems?
Also, compared to the absolutely nasty things that dozens of folks in this forum -- including some of you above, and even me, occasionally -- regularly say about corporate leaders such as Ballmer, Brin, Schmidt (I could go on), what gives you the right to swat down someone who, in my opinion, is offering a possibly reasonable (but granted, speculative and somewhat arrogant) criticism of Cook and his team? To paraphrase one of you above, do you run billion dollar businesses? And what makes you guys think that products are the only metric by which Apple's management should be judged, and stock prices are not relevant?
If you have an objection you should counter what he has to say (in fairness, Slurpy revised his original post), rather than the petulant, knee-jerk responses I see above.
Wow, I didn't know someone will swat me for asking a person who seem to know everything about righting the wrongs at Apple.
Apple products are within the control of Apple but the stock price can be subjected to manipulation, proof? I don't have any but I am still allowed my speculation or rather response as to what is happening to Apple share price. (they did one on google but it is not featured week after week as what they did to Apple)
Go to market watch.com and they have been carrying the story of 'what Apple didn't tell you" ever since this piece came out. And if this is not an attempt at stock manipulation or perhaps out of their goodness in their heart that consumers should be warned to the bad things Apple is doing.
Btw anything wrong to question him as to his success in running a billion dollar company?
Why do you say stuff that is patently wrong? Furthermore, why say stuff that you couldn't possibly know to be true? Do you hit <send> without thinking or do you think, "Others like Jrgosta, Applelunatic and Charlituna get away with writing crap and so I can too?"
Prove me wrong! I posted evidence of fingerprint scanners that can easily be bypassed. What do you have? It's long been a problem with biometric security devices. So where is your evidence? Either put up or crawl back under the rock from which you came... Just because you mouth off like a spoiled little 8 year old doesn't make you right. Do you even look stuff up and find out the real truth? Or do you think that just because you claim something is wrong it makes it so? Show me. Either convince me with 3rd party evidence or acknowledge you're an idiot with nothing to contribute.
So you are buying the stock hand over fist because you think its a good value and Tim Cook can do no wrong?
We'll find out in a couple weeks if the analysts were correct that sales were slowing via the supply chain check and whether Tim looks like a moron by telling people not to rely on those checks. I'm guessing its the latter. I think he's out of touch.
I would like a larger display iPhone. I know many people that would. Just because you don't doesn't mean others wouldn't buy them. I will be shocked if Apple doesn't agree with me and release a larger screen next year.
Consensus estimates are above the guidance the company gave. Will they miss their own earnings three times in a row? Unlikely, but they will very likely miss consensus estimates this quarter and next. Tim is in a bad spot that Jobs played games and always lowballed so analysts haven't adjusted to the new reality and continue to think Apple will beat its own guidance.
I am amazed as the lack of basic finance knowledge. If you want to buy a widget business that costs $1 million and you put in your own money for half and borrow the other half, you have a capitalization that is 50% equity and 50% debt. Lets say you immediately take the company public, so the market cap is 500k and you have 500k of debt, Did the value of the business you bought for 1 million just drop to 500k because that is the market cap? Of course not, the value of the business is still $1 million., All companies choose to capitalize themselves differently. The only way to normalize things is if you look at enterprise value, which is mkt cap less net debt. That tells you what a business is worth by looking at capitalization on an apples-to-apples basis.
Here is an idea. Use your brain. Get your calculator out, find a site that tells you Apple's market cap. Then look at their most recent 10Q or last press release and determine how much debt and cash they reported. Then get out your HP12C and take market cap, add debt, then subtract cash and tell me what you get. It might take you 3-5 minutes to do all of the above.
I didn't say it was the only metric of success, you are putting those words in my mouth. It is a metric and the most definitive metric to determine the value of a company. I said Apple had decreased in value under Tim Cook. It has. All while its competitors have doubled in value and the markets are at all-time highs.
You keep referring to EV as the metric which Apple should be measured. Are you planning a takeover? EV, calculated in the manner you are using, is for when you're planning on BUYING A COMPANY.
That's why you add in debt and subtract cash from your valuation. Why?
Because if you're paying market price for a company, you also have to add in the debts a company has, as you will now be on the hook for those. If a company has a market price of $100 and has $50 in debt, the purchase will really cost you $150, making that the amount you value the company at.
When buying a company though, you're also getting all its cash, which is included in the market price. So if the same company has $75 in its checkbook, you'll get $75. Which means that $150 purchase really only costs you $75, since you'll pocket the cash.
So if you're planning on purchasing Apple, Inc., then this value makes sense. For other purposes, it does not make sense. In the real world, why would having cash (or liquid assets, which is what a lot of Apple's "cash" really is) ever be a bad thing or reduce the value of the company?
I think your point would be stronger if you were arguing that Apple's market cap and share price are being inflated by cash, and that "Apple" (the perception of future success, cash flows, etc) is worth even less than what people think. But that's perception, and while perception is often reality, it is often illogical and irrational.
If this chart is accurate; there is no reason to buy Apple shares until the the 3rd quarter - September/October. I was going start adding on now but it too early. Just hoping they will have one product announcement a month till then even it is small; it will stabilize the shares. Then need one for June, July, August!
Comments
Interesting thread, indeed. here's my $.02:
Apple was speculatively bubbled by margin hogs and then imploded by well-intentioned profit-takers and ruthless Wall Street shorts. It's that simple and has little or nothing to do with the realities of Tim's leadership.
Apple's delayed launches and product contraints (where they actually exist) have plenty of precedence and may currently be attributed, in part, to a) a new SVP of Operations who is not named Tim Cook; b) strained talent resources and trying to do too much at once and; c) the fact that Tim would prefer inventory shortages to inventory glut. He's noted for expressing his strong disdain for keeping inventory. With such tight inventory tolerances, product shortages are an inevitable price to pay.
And yes, I did just pull all of that out my @&&;.
Seriously, though, in 2013 I would like to see product updates and launches staggered across all four quarters rather than clustered in the second half of the year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark
Wow, just because someone is great at something doesn't mean they're perfect.
I wasn't being critical. I'm saying if there are supply chain issues, it would be in spite of great expertise in that area, and likely due to factors other than Tim Cook's ability.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Wow, what a substantive set of responses, guys. /s
What the heck is wrong with someone expressing an opinion that there may be -- indeed, the market must strongly believe there are given $250B in wealth that has been wiped out -- management problems?
Also, compared to the absolutely nasty things that dozens of folks in this forum -- including some of you above, and even me, occasionally -- regularly say about corporate leaders such as Ballmer, Brin, Schmidt (I could go on), what gives you the right to swat down someone who, in my opinion, is offering a possibly reasonable (but granted, speculative and somewhat arrogant) criticism of Cook and his team? To paraphrase one of you above, do you run billion dollar businesses? And what makes you guys think that products are the only metric by which Apple's management should be judged, and stock prices are not relevant?
If you have an objection you should counter what he has to say (in fairness, Slurpy revised his original post), rather than the petulant, knee-jerk responses I see above.
Wow, I didn't know someone will swat me for asking a person who seem to know everything about righting the wrongs at Apple.
Apple products are within the control of Apple but the stock price can be subjected to manipulation, proof? I don't have any but I am still allowed my speculation or rather response as to what is happening to Apple share price. (they did one on google but it is not featured week after week as what they did to Apple)
Go to market watch.com and they have been carrying the story of 'what Apple didn't tell you" ever since this piece came out. And if this is not an attempt at stock manipulation or perhaps out of their goodness in their heart that consumers should be warned to the bad things Apple is doing.
Btw anything wrong to question him as to his success in running a billion dollar company?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater
Why do you say stuff that is patently wrong? Furthermore, why say stuff that you couldn't possibly know to be true? Do you hit <send> without thinking or do you think, "Others like Jrgosta, Applelunatic and Charlituna get away with writing crap and so I can too?"
Prove me wrong! I posted evidence of fingerprint scanners that can easily be bypassed. What do you have? It's long been a problem with biometric security devices. So where is your evidence? Either put up or crawl back under the rock from which you came... Just because you mouth off like a spoiled little 8 year old doesn't make you right. Do you even look stuff up and find out the real truth? Or do you think that just because you claim something is wrong it makes it so? Show me. Either convince me with 3rd party evidence or acknowledge you're an idiot with nothing to contribute.
Want more?
http://www.blackhat.com/presentations/bh-europe-06/bh-eu-06-Kiviharju/bh-eu-06-kiviarju.pdf
Fingerprint security is a joke. It's not a secure way to lock down your phone.
You keep referring to EV as the metric which Apple should be measured. Are you planning a takeover? EV, calculated in the manner you are using, is for when you're planning on BUYING A COMPANY.
That's why you add in debt and subtract cash from your valuation. Why?
Because if you're paying market price for a company, you also have to add in the debts a company has, as you will now be on the hook for those. If a company has a market price of $100 and has $50 in debt, the purchase will really cost you $150, making that the amount you value the company at.
When buying a company though, you're also getting all its cash, which is included in the market price. So if the same company has $75 in its checkbook, you'll get $75. Which means that $150 purchase really only costs you $75, since you'll pocket the cash.
So if you're planning on purchasing Apple, Inc., then this value makes sense. For other purposes, it does not make sense. In the real world, why would having cash (or liquid assets, which is what a lot of Apple's "cash" really is) ever be a bad thing or reduce the value of the company?
I think your point would be stronger if you were arguing that Apple's market cap and share price are being inflated by cash, and that "Apple" (the perception of future success, cash flows, etc) is worth even less than what people think. But that's perception, and while perception is often reality, it is often illogical and irrational.
If this chart is accurate; there is no reason to buy Apple shares until the the 3rd quarter - September/October. I was going start adding on now but it too early. Just hoping they will have one product announcement a month till then even it is small; it will stabilize the shares. Then need one for June, July, August!
Huawei Ascend P6 just got released. Looks like an Apple next generation iPhone 6 with 4.7" screen.