I bought more shares today, here are the reasons why (I'm a developer):
1. Developers like developing for iOS.
2. Apps are more profitable on iOS and therefore it will remain the go to platform for releasing new paid apps.
3. All the headlines are bad for AAPL right now (suggesting to me that the stock is being oversold).
4. Apple products are still seen as the "premium" or higher quality product. I have a droid 3 and consider it a POS (as does my gf who tells me that every day). I have had so many problems with it and have been left without an OS update for as long as I can remember. This is a common theme among android phones. They are buggy, cheap, and some get left behind (and there is no way to tell if your new phone will be one of them). When I bought this, it was on the roadmap to have its OS updated, but it never was.
5. I am a long term investor, so I only care about long term performance.
6. AAPL stock is cheap.
7. The stock market as a whole is irrational, and right now it is overly sensitive to negative news.
If you wait until you see some forward momentum in the stock, or AAPL announces something that causes positive investor sentiment, you will have already missed your buying opportunity. Buying a company at a low point will never feel safe. If it does feel safe, you are probably buying at the wrong time (or your name is Warren Buffett). I can't imagine a more frightening time to buy AAPL.
I watched (and held my stock) as Steve Jobs "destroyed" over 50% of AAPL's value from its (then all-time-high) 200 down to 78 in a fairly brief period of time. On a percentage basis, that's greater than AAPL's current drop from its current all-time-high. Leaving the absolute market cap out of it for the moment (I'll get back to that) that means that individual investors that bought in at or near 200 were much more burned by Steve than current investors have been by Tim. In your own portfolio, percentage is what matters. You decide how much you can risk based on potential reward, and you get enough shares to reach that amount, individual share price be damned. Steve's decline burned more than Tim's. But I held, as did others, and AAPL came back. It can happen again.
etc. etc. etc.
Thompson
Well, now we're all waiting to see if Tim can increase the stock price over 400% from this low... or will it just keep dropping.
Well, now we're all waiting to see if Tim can increase the stock price over 400% from this low... or will it just keep dropping.
Increasing 400% from here is a pretty tall order given the shear magnitude of the implied size of the market cap and (by extension) the earnings. At this size, I don't think anyone's going to grace AAPL with the huge growth multiples of yesteryear, regardless of the impact of a new product. Max PE will probably be 15 (ignoring cash). Steve never had to face the condition where growing AAPL another 400% meant greatly exceeding the record market caps of all companies for all time. Apple can't grow larger than the universe (tongue-in-cheek) and certain investors don't like the feeling of an overhang. Some are looking for the next 10-bagger, and AAPL isn't THAT anymore. There goes that crowd from the potential AAPL market.
By all actual statistics so far, Tim is doing a fantastic job running the company. They will ultimately release another hit product, and things will be better for the stock. Then we'll look back and say, "it wasn't so bad", except for those nervous-nellies that sold in panic. Of course, Tim Cook's detractors will just credit Steve and say "now innovation really IS over for Apple."
Increasing 400% from here is a pretty tall order given the shear magnitude of the implied size of the market cap and (by extension) the earnings. At this size, I don't think anyone's going to grace AAPL with the huge growth multiples of yesteryear, regardless of the impact of a new product. Max PE will probably be 15 (ignoring cash). Steve never had to face the condition where growing AAPL another 400% meant greatly exceeding the record market caps of all companies for all time. Apple can't grow larger than the universe (tongue-in-cheek) and certain investors don't like the feeling of an overhang. Some are looking for the next 10-bagger, and AAPL isn't THAT anymore. There goes that crowd from the potential AAPL market.
By all actual statistics so far, Tim is doing a fantastic job running the company. They will ultimately release another hit product, and things will be better for the stock. Then we'll look back and say, "it wasn't so bad", except for those nervous-nellies that sold in panic. Of course, Tim Cook's detractors will just credit Steve and say "now innovation really IS over for Apple."
Thompson
My comment was only made to balance your comment.
... and... by the way... kudos to all of those who sold above $600. Time to buy back in is nigh.
Maybe you are right. My personal experience is that the best work is done in garages and temporary office space (trailers and such), as soon as the interior decor gets fancy, creativity tends to decay.
Wow. So Google, Twitter, Apple, Pixar employees work in rented out trailers. What a genius post.
Sweet. BMO out today saying S4 will outsell iPhone5 in calendar 13 and they won't even have it available for the full year. Epic, epic implosion. Cook needs to go and the new HQ damn well better be cancelled or altered. He and the board already look like epic failures.
Who the frak is BMO? What has its track record been on predicting market share?
... and... by the way... kudos to all of those who sold above $600. Time to buy back in is nigh.
Well, if I implied a completely analogous chart trace to what Steve had before, post-78, I concur with the need for balance. To be clear, I don't expect a 400% rise from AAPL nor is such a thing necessary for AAPL to be a great investment for folks that don't need a ten-bagger or more to be happy. For example, if an individual has only a thousand bucks or a bit more to invest as a one-time seed to riches, I certainly wouldn't recommend AAPL. However, if you have a 401K that allows self-management, I would heartily recommend it. Furthermore, if one has already passed the retirement threshold in net assets, AAPL should be a part of their portfolio for the income that is generated through dividends (and hopefully more soon).
Personally, I am an AAPL two-bagger away from early retirement, so I am highly motivated to pay attention to more than just near or mid term peaks and troughs. I seek reasons and measure them against my expectations and understanding of the tech landscape, which to date have proven more accurate than that of the analysts, pumpers, and doom-sayers. I have time on my side.
Personally, I am an AAPL two-bagger away from early retirement, so I am highly motivated to pay attention to more than just near or mid term peaks and troughs. I seek reasons and measure them against my expectations and understanding of the tech landscape, which to date have proven more accurate than that of the analysts, pumpers, and doom-sayers. I have time on my side.
Thompson
... but you also have to remember that some people bought in above $600 on all the hype. [... or, what the hell, above $450]
It could be a while or never for them to realize a positive return... and with a new CEO at the helm we don't know yet if these are just peaks and troughs. There are enough examples around to show what can happen to once lofty companies... dashing the hopes of small investors to ever break even on their investment.
Just saying that not everyone bought at $10 adjusted.
Those mother fuxker is like the blind people touch an elephant below , each one of them says differently , but all of them are just blindly wrong and insist elephant is like what they think.
... but you also have to remember that some people bought in above $600 on all the hype. [... or, what the hell, above $450]
It could be a while or never for them to realize a positive return... and with a new CEO at the helm we don't know yet if these are just peaks and troughs. There are enough examples around to show what can happen to once lofty companies... dashing the hopes of small investors to ever break even on their investment.
Just saying that not everyone bought at $10 adjusted.
I sympathize with such people's position. I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat. I have old posts on AAPL's Yahoo MB from 2002 that prove this.
Each individual needs to do their due diligence to understand what the differences are - if any - between Apple's current circumstances and those of the examples you allude to. If individuals aren't up to that task,then it's my belief that they really shouldn't be playing the stock market to begin with and would be better off investing in ETFs or trusting professionals to manage their money for them. (Ugh... not for me. I do better.)
The best way to analyze the markets that companies play in (not the stock markets... their sales markets) is to visualize the long term and then work backwards... especially for technology where the capabilities morph over time. For instance, there is no doubt in my mind that the TV/entertainment market is going to be a very different beast 10 years from now. It will get majorly disrupted. But it is going to take a lot of time, focus, and understanding of what people would like. I would be very disappointed if Apple took the Microsoft or Google approach on this, which is throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and see what sticks. That isn't going to bring about the disruption I am seeing, because the current status quo and all of its players are entrenched in complicated ways that go way beyond just technology. Exclusive contracts for content and/or advertising come to mind. Ugh. But time will rectify this, and my money is on Apple to win the race. The things that will have to be in place to win that race are enormous. It goes beyond the device level, into the ecosystem level, and both horizontal and vertical integration. Areas where Apple has advantage by their experience and their current position. This will be a huge disruption, biggest yet, and Apple is going to get even bigger. That's my prediction, and it may take some time. I have the patience.
So you see, from my perspective, the fact that Apple is taking their time and not just throwing out the new thing is a relief to me: Apple is still being Apple and saying "no" until they get this big product move right. Steve would have done the same, and in fact, did just that during the 6 years between iPod and iPhone. He suffered stock plunges too but kept his eye on the ball.
Right now the observation that Tim is not Steve is a tautology, but it cannot be used to indict the man on the basis of what has yet to occur. When Apple brings out their new move and it flops, I'll buy into this fear, but not a moment before. Apple without Steve may not be the same, but they still have a boatload of talent that I believe can run rings around the other companies that may vie for the same vision of TV/entertainment. Other companies (Google, Samsung, Microsoft) are throwing out stuff for internet connected TVs or boxes, and it isn't sticking. Apple will come along and do it right. Subsequently, others will attempt to copy Apple's approach, with varying degrees of success, and then claim it to be an obvious approach all along, so why not copy it? Hilarious.
I sympathize with such people's position. I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat. I have old posts on AAPL's Yahoo MB from 2002 that prove this.
Each individual needs to do their due diligence to understand what the differences are - if any - between Apple's current circumstances and those of the examples you allude to. If individuals aren't up to that task,then it's my belief that they really shouldn't be playing the stock market to begin with and would be better off investing in ETFs or trusting professionals to manage their money for them. (Ugh... not for me. I do better.)
But if instead of seeing just other people's actions and results, which could have been governed by luck, you also had access to their reasons, explanations, predictions of what will transpire in a global sense (not small details) throughout the decade, and everything pretty much played out the way they predicted... you probably shouldn't call that luck. You should probably start to emulate the approach. Make sense?
Amazing, Google has a meh quarter and their stock is up after hours. Same with Microsoft and their up over 1.5%. If Apple has a meh quarter (which everyone is expecting) their stock will probably drop $20 after hours. :rolleyes:
Amazing, Google has a meh quarter and their stock is up after hours. Same with Microsoft and their up over 1.5%. If Apple has a meh quarter (which everyone is expecting) their stock will probably drop $20 after hours. :rolleyes:
1) I can't believe this thread is still going. I have no idea what happened since page 6 or 7 but I assume it was mostly the same.
2) I think their results look good. They did miss the "estimates" for their profits which means that the stock would drop if it were AAPL, but for these results I think the market should react favourably. In fact, I see the after hours response as not strong enough.
But if instead of seeing just other people's actions and results, which could have been governed by luck, you also had access to their reasons, explanations, predictions of what will transpire in a global sense (not small details) throughout the decade, and everything pretty much played out the way they predicted... you probably shouldn't call that luck. You should probably start to emulate the approach. Make sense?
Thompson
If anyone can predict what will transpire a decade in advance and it happens as they say... well, that's either luck or they can see the future... global sense and all.
The only things I listened too were that gold would become king in the first decade and that Apple would prosper under Jobs.
Amazing, Google has a meh quarter and their stock is up after hours. Same with Microsoft and their up over 1.5%. If Apple has a meh quarter (which everyone is expecting) their stock will probably drop $20 after hours.
(1) Within 10 years, television will be changed in developed markets such that there no longer is any need for the user to consider "channels". Multiple remotes will no longer be needed either. There will be a great deal of access to subscription based content, like Netflix except with tons more content - basically everything but first run and live, for a healthy monthly fee that is on par with what cable is now, bu significantly more user centric and less annoying. Best of all: no bundles of BS channels.
(2) The infrastructure, integration chops, and significant investment to buy or woo content owners (think of Apple's cash hoard) it takes to pull this off makes Apple far and away the most likely winner. But even if not the "winner", they WILL end up with a respectable seat at the big table. And I mean big. Think of the money flowing through various disparate elements of it right now. Pay per view. Advertising. Cable fees. Netflix fees. Network fees. DVD sales. DVD rentals. So many middle men between the content owners and those of us that consume it. All of this will congeal into fewer players, and those players will be enriched beyond our current metrics. Apple will be one of them, if not the biggest. Biggest is not necessary.
Conclusion: can't predict the interim. AAPL will be much higher eventually. Buy AAPL.
Now, if AAPL does end up much higher in the future AND my description in number (1) above pans out, AND you see the logic of number (2) above, then it wasn't just dumb luck. I used similar logic, but with appropriate observations, regarding iPod/iTunes and then after that iPhone and iPad.
Maybe I'll get lucky in result and reason for a 4th time in a row.
(1) Within 10 years, television will be changed in developed markets such that there no longer is any need for the user to consider "channels". Multiple remotes will no longer be needed either. There will be a great deal of access to subscription based content, like Netflix except with tons more content - basically everything but first run and live, for a healthy monthly fee that is on par with what cable is now, bu significantly more user centric and less annoying. Best of all: no bundles of BS channels.
(2) The infrastructure, integration chops, and significant investment to buy or woo content owners (think of Apple's cash hoard) it takes to pull this off makes Apple far and away the most likely winner. But even if not the "winner", they WILL end up with a respectable seat at the big table. And I mean big. Think of the money flowing through various disparate elements of it right now. Pay per view. Advertising. Cable fees. Netflix fees. Network fees. DVD sales. DVD rentals. So many middle men between the content owners and those of us that consume it. All of this will congeal into fewer players, and those players will be enriched beyond our current metrics. Apple will be one of them, if not the biggest. Biggest is not necessary.
Conclusion: can't predict the interim. AAPL will be much higher eventually. Buy AAPL.
Now, if AAPL does end up much higher in the future AND my description in number (1) above pans out, AND you see the logic of number (2) above, then it wasn't just dumb luck. I used similar logic, but with appropriate observations, regarding iPod/iTunes and then after that iPhone and iPad.
Maybe I'll get lucky in result and reason for a 4th time in a row.
So we'll see in a decade, right?
Thompson
Hmmm... I didn't bother looking at anything except that Steve retook the reins of Apple. That's all I needed to know. To heck with music industry etc.
As far as gold... the chatter about gold was incessant. I knew it was a no brainer.
I'm not so sure, anymore, that AAPL will be that much higher... if any... in the future. I left in the mid 5s and haven't looked back. (oh... there was a brief ill timed foray after 600 where I lost $100... but got the hell out quickly).
Comments
I bought more shares today, here are the reasons why (I'm a developer):
1. Developers like developing for iOS.
2. Apps are more profitable on iOS and therefore it will remain the go to platform for releasing new paid apps.
3. All the headlines are bad for AAPL right now (suggesting to me that the stock is being oversold).
4. Apple products are still seen as the "premium" or higher quality product. I have a droid 3 and consider it a POS (as does my gf who tells me that every day). I have had so many problems with it and have been left without an OS update for as long as I can remember. This is a common theme among android phones. They are buggy, cheap, and some get left behind (and there is no way to tell if your new phone will be one of them). When I bought this, it was on the roadmap to have its OS updated, but it never was.
5. I am a long term investor, so I only care about long term performance.
6. AAPL stock is cheap.
7. The stock market as a whole is irrational, and right now it is overly sensitive to negative news.
If you wait until you see some forward momentum in the stock, or AAPL announces something that causes positive investor sentiment, you will have already missed your buying opportunity. Buying a company at a low point will never feel safe. If it does feel safe, you are probably buying at the wrong time (or your name is Warren Buffett). I can't imagine a more frightening time to buy AAPL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
I watched (and held my stock) as Steve Jobs "destroyed" over 50% of AAPL's value from its (then all-time-high) 200 down to 78 in a fairly brief period of time. On a percentage basis, that's greater than AAPL's current drop from its current all-time-high. Leaving the absolute market cap out of it for the moment (I'll get back to that) that means that individual investors that bought in at or near 200 were much more burned by Steve than current investors have been by Tim. In your own portfolio, percentage is what matters. You decide how much you can risk based on potential reward, and you get enough shares to reach that amount, individual share price be damned. Steve's decline burned more than Tim's. But I held, as did others, and AAPL came back. It can happen again.
etc. etc. etc.
Thompson
Well, now we're all waiting to see if Tim can increase the stock price over 400% from this low... or will it just keep dropping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paladyr
I bought more shares today, here are the reasons why (I'm a developer):
etc. etc. etc.
I can't imagine a more frightening time to buy AAPL.Next Wednesday?
I guess we'll find out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Next Wednesday?
I guess we'll find out.
Haha maybe! But I'll only be worried if it's lower than I bought today in 5 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Well, now we're all waiting to see if Tim can increase the stock price over 400% from this low... or will it just keep dropping.
Increasing 400% from here is a pretty tall order given the shear magnitude of the implied size of the market cap and (by extension) the earnings. At this size, I don't think anyone's going to grace AAPL with the huge growth multiples of yesteryear, regardless of the impact of a new product. Max PE will probably be 15 (ignoring cash). Steve never had to face the condition where growing AAPL another 400% meant greatly exceeding the record market caps of all companies for all time. Apple can't grow larger than the universe (tongue-in-cheek) and certain investors don't like the feeling of an overhang. Some are looking for the next 10-bagger, and AAPL isn't THAT anymore. There goes that crowd from the potential AAPL market.
By all actual statistics so far, Tim is doing a fantastic job running the company. They will ultimately release another hit product, and things will be better for the stock. Then we'll look back and say, "it wasn't so bad", except for those nervous-nellies that sold in panic. Of course, Tim Cook's detractors will just credit Steve and say "now innovation really IS over for Apple."
Thompson
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
Increasing 400% from here is a pretty tall order given the shear magnitude of the implied size of the market cap and (by extension) the earnings. At this size, I don't think anyone's going to grace AAPL with the huge growth multiples of yesteryear, regardless of the impact of a new product. Max PE will probably be 15 (ignoring cash). Steve never had to face the condition where growing AAPL another 400% meant greatly exceeding the record market caps of all companies for all time. Apple can't grow larger than the universe (tongue-in-cheek) and certain investors don't like the feeling of an overhang. Some are looking for the next 10-bagger, and AAPL isn't THAT anymore. There goes that crowd from the potential AAPL market.
By all actual statistics so far, Tim is doing a fantastic job running the company. They will ultimately release another hit product, and things will be better for the stock. Then we'll look back and say, "it wasn't so bad", except for those nervous-nellies that sold in panic. Of course, Tim Cook's detractors will just credit Steve and say "now innovation really IS over for Apple."
Thompson
My comment was only made to balance your comment.
... and... by the way... kudos to all of those who sold above $600. Time to buy back in is nigh.
Wow. So Google, Twitter, Apple, Pixar employees work in rented out trailers. What a genius post.
Who the frak is BMO? What has its track record been on predicting market share?
Originally Posted by jungmark
…Apple… …employees work in rented out trailers.
Well, rented-out buildings, at least. At least for now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
My comment was only made to balance your comment.
... and... by the way... kudos to all of those who sold above $600. Time to buy back in is nigh.
Well, if I implied a completely analogous chart trace to what Steve had before, post-78, I concur with the need for balance. To be clear, I don't expect a 400% rise from AAPL nor is such a thing necessary for AAPL to be a great investment for folks that don't need a ten-bagger or more to be happy. For example, if an individual has only a thousand bucks or a bit more to invest as a one-time seed to riches, I certainly wouldn't recommend AAPL. However, if you have a 401K that allows self-management, I would heartily recommend it. Furthermore, if one has already passed the retirement threshold in net assets, AAPL should be a part of their portfolio for the income that is generated through dividends (and hopefully more soon).
Personally, I am an AAPL two-bagger away from early retirement, so I am highly motivated to pay attention to more than just near or mid term peaks and troughs. I seek reasons and measure them against my expectations and understanding of the tech landscape, which to date have proven more accurate than that of the analysts, pumpers, and doom-sayers. I have time on my side.
Thompson
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
Personally, I am an AAPL two-bagger away from early retirement, so I am highly motivated to pay attention to more than just near or mid term peaks and troughs. I seek reasons and measure them against my expectations and understanding of the tech landscape, which to date have proven more accurate than that of the analysts, pumpers, and doom-sayers. I have time on my side.
Thompson
... but you also have to remember that some people bought in above $600 on all the hype. [... or, what the hell, above $450]
It could be a while or never for them to realize a positive return... and with a new CEO at the helm we don't know yet if these are just peaks and troughs. There are enough examples around to show what can happen to once lofty companies... dashing the hopes of small investors to ever break even on their investment.
Just saying that not everyone bought at $10 adjusted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover
Those mother fuxker is like the blind people touch an elephant below , each one of them says differently , but all of them are just blindly wrong and insist elephant is like what they think.
He's more like the seventh:
The Seventh blind man, staff in hand,
Upon his bare feet goes.
I clearly sense, he calmly said,
And wish for all to know
The Elephant is warm and squishy
In between the toes!
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
... but you also have to remember that some people bought in above $600 on all the hype. [... or, what the hell, above $450]
It could be a while or never for them to realize a positive return... and with a new CEO at the helm we don't know yet if these are just peaks and troughs. There are enough examples around to show what can happen to once lofty companies... dashing the hopes of small investors to ever break even on their investment.
Just saying that not everyone bought at $10 adjusted.
I sympathize with such people's position. I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat. I have old posts on AAPL's Yahoo MB from 2002 that prove this.
Each individual needs to do their due diligence to understand what the differences are - if any - between Apple's current circumstances and those of the examples you allude to. If individuals aren't up to that task,then it's my belief that they really shouldn't be playing the stock market to begin with and would be better off investing in ETFs or trusting professionals to manage their money for them. (Ugh... not for me. I do better.)
The best way to analyze the markets that companies play in (not the stock markets... their sales markets) is to visualize the long term and then work backwards... especially for technology where the capabilities morph over time. For instance, there is no doubt in my mind that the TV/entertainment market is going to be a very different beast 10 years from now. It will get majorly disrupted. But it is going to take a lot of time, focus, and understanding of what people would like. I would be very disappointed if Apple took the Microsoft or Google approach on this, which is throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and see what sticks. That isn't going to bring about the disruption I am seeing, because the current status quo and all of its players are entrenched in complicated ways that go way beyond just technology. Exclusive contracts for content and/or advertising come to mind. Ugh. But time will rectify this, and my money is on Apple to win the race. The things that will have to be in place to win that race are enormous. It goes beyond the device level, into the ecosystem level, and both horizontal and vertical integration. Areas where Apple has advantage by their experience and their current position. This will be a huge disruption, biggest yet, and Apple is going to get even bigger. That's my prediction, and it may take some time. I have the patience.
So you see, from my perspective, the fact that Apple is taking their time and not just throwing out the new thing is a relief to me: Apple is still being Apple and saying "no" until they get this big product move right. Steve would have done the same, and in fact, did just that during the 6 years between iPod and iPhone. He suffered stock plunges too but kept his eye on the ball.
Right now the observation that Tim is not Steve is a tautology, but it cannot be used to indict the man on the basis of what has yet to occur. When Apple brings out their new move and it flops, I'll buy into this fear, but not a moment before. Apple without Steve may not be the same, but they still have a boatload of talent that I believe can run rings around the other companies that may vie for the same vision of TV/entertainment. Other companies (Google, Samsung, Microsoft) are throwing out stuff for internet connected TVs or boxes, and it isn't sticking. Apple will come along and do it right. Subsequently, others will attempt to copy Apple's approach, with varying degrees of success, and then claim it to be an obvious approach all along, so why not copy it? Hilarious.
Thompson
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
I sympathize with such people's position. I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat. I have old posts on AAPL's Yahoo MB from 2002 that prove this.
Each individual needs to do their due diligence to understand what the differences are - if any - between Apple's current circumstances and those of the examples you allude to. If individuals aren't up to that task,then it's my belief that they really shouldn't be playing the stock market to begin with and would be better off investing in ETFs or trusting professionals to manage their money for them. (Ugh... not for me. I do better.)
Thompson
... and, sometimes, people just get lucky.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
... and, sometimes, people just get lucky.
Indeed.
But if instead of seeing just other people's actions and results, which could have been governed by luck, you also had access to their reasons, explanations, predictions of what will transpire in a global sense (not small details) throughout the decade, and everything pretty much played out the way they predicted... you probably shouldn't call that luck. You should probably start to emulate the approach. Make sense?
Thompson
1) I can't believe this thread is still going. I have no idea what happened since page 6 or 7 but I assume it was mostly the same.
2) I think their results look good. They did miss the "estimates" for their profits which means that the stock would drop if it were AAPL, but for these results I think the market should react favourably. In fact, I see the after hours response as not strong enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
Indeed.
But if instead of seeing just other people's actions and results, which could have been governed by luck, you also had access to their reasons, explanations, predictions of what will transpire in a global sense (not small details) throughout the decade, and everything pretty much played out the way they predicted... you probably shouldn't call that luck. You should probably start to emulate the approach. Make sense?
Thompson
If anyone can predict what will transpire a decade in advance and it happens as they say... well, that's either luck or they can see the future... global sense and all.
The only things I listened too were that gold would become king in the first decade and that Apple would prosper under Jobs.
... and I still consider that dumb luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Amazing, Google has a meh quarter and their stock is up after hours. Same with Microsoft and their up over 1.5%. If Apple has a meh quarter (which everyone is expecting) their stock will probably drop $20 after hours.
$30
Example:
(1) Within 10 years, television will be changed in developed markets such that there no longer is any need for the user to consider "channels". Multiple remotes will no longer be needed either. There will be a great deal of access to subscription based content, like Netflix except with tons more content - basically everything but first run and live, for a healthy monthly fee that is on par with what cable is now, bu significantly more user centric and less annoying. Best of all: no bundles of BS channels.
(2) The infrastructure, integration chops, and significant investment to buy or woo content owners (think of Apple's cash hoard) it takes to pull this off makes Apple far and away the most likely winner. But even if not the "winner", they WILL end up with a respectable seat at the big table. And I mean big. Think of the money flowing through various disparate elements of it right now. Pay per view. Advertising. Cable fees. Netflix fees. Network fees. DVD sales. DVD rentals. So many middle men between the content owners and those of us that consume it. All of this will congeal into fewer players, and those players will be enriched beyond our current metrics. Apple will be one of them, if not the biggest. Biggest is not necessary.
Conclusion: can't predict the interim. AAPL will be much higher eventually. Buy AAPL.
Now, if AAPL does end up much higher in the future AND my description in number (1) above pans out, AND you see the logic of number (2) above, then it wasn't just dumb luck. I used similar logic, but with appropriate observations, regarding iPod/iTunes and then after that iPhone and iPad.
Maybe I'll get lucky in result and reason for a 4th time in a row.
So we'll see in a decade, right?
Thompson
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
Island,
Example:
(1) Within 10 years, television will be changed in developed markets such that there no longer is any need for the user to consider "channels". Multiple remotes will no longer be needed either. There will be a great deal of access to subscription based content, like Netflix except with tons more content - basically everything but first run and live, for a healthy monthly fee that is on par with what cable is now, bu significantly more user centric and less annoying. Best of all: no bundles of BS channels.
(2) The infrastructure, integration chops, and significant investment to buy or woo content owners (think of Apple's cash hoard) it takes to pull this off makes Apple far and away the most likely winner. But even if not the "winner", they WILL end up with a respectable seat at the big table. And I mean big. Think of the money flowing through various disparate elements of it right now. Pay per view. Advertising. Cable fees. Netflix fees. Network fees. DVD sales. DVD rentals. So many middle men between the content owners and those of us that consume it. All of this will congeal into fewer players, and those players will be enriched beyond our current metrics. Apple will be one of them, if not the biggest. Biggest is not necessary.
Conclusion: can't predict the interim. AAPL will be much higher eventually. Buy AAPL.
Now, if AAPL does end up much higher in the future AND my description in number (1) above pans out, AND you see the logic of number (2) above, then it wasn't just dumb luck. I used similar logic, but with appropriate observations, regarding iPod/iTunes and then after that iPhone and iPad.
Maybe I'll get lucky in result and reason for a 4th time in a row.
So we'll see in a decade, right?
Thompson
Hmmm... I didn't bother looking at anything except that Steve retook the reins of Apple. That's all I needed to know. To heck with music industry etc.
As far as gold... the chatter about gold was incessant. I knew it was a no brainer.
I'm not so sure, anymore, that AAPL will be that much higher... if any... in the future. I left in the mid 5s and haven't looked back. (oh... there was a brief ill timed foray after 600 where I lost $100... but got the hell out quickly).