Hmmm... I didn't bother looking at anything except that Steve retook the reins of Apple. That's all I needed to know. To heck with music industry etc.
As far as gold... the chatter about gold was incessant. I knew it was a no brainer.
I'm not so sure, anymore, that AAPL will be that much higher... if any... in the future. I left in the mid 5s and haven't looked back. (oh... there was a brief ill timed foray after 600 where I lost $100... but got the hell out quickly).
OK, well then I would call you lucky if that's the depth of your consideration. Likewise, you will probably not remember, let alone appreciate, my dissertation above a decade from now in any case.
OK, well then I would call you lucky if that's the depth of your consideration. Likewise, you will probably not remember, let alone appreciate, my dissertation above a decade from now in any case.
Fortune to you, Island,
Thompson
Lucky that I chose to ride on Steve's back... now there's a fresh new opinion on this Forum.
1) I can't believe this thread is still going. I have no idea what happened since page 6 or 7 but I assume it was mostly the same.
2) I think their results look good. They did miss the "estimates" for their profits which means that the stock would drop if it were AAPL, but for these results I think the market should react favourably. In fact, I see the after hours response as not strong enough.
Hmm..I was following on CNBC and they were pretty meh on Google, Microsoft and IBM.
" I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat."
Oh man I remember that: dropped from 70ish to 35 and scared the spit out of me. But I REALLY liked my iPod and iTunes on my new MacBook Titanium was just such a revelation that I hung on. The phone and the pad have been happy additons...
This drop from a possible 20x yield to a possible 11x has been upsetting but not nearly as scary.
If anyone can predict what will transpire a decade in advance and it happens as they say... well, that's either luck or they can see the future... global sense and all.
The only things I listened too were that gold would become king in the first decade and that Apple would prosper under Jobs.
... and I still consider that dumb luck.
In a world that permits Amazon's P/E to exist is there any other rationale?
In a world that permits Amazon's P/E to exist is there any other rationale?
Note that this quarter there has been no P/E since the last previous quarter they took a loss. They may want to take a loss over having the world's first 100,000 P/E.
" I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat."
Oh man I remember that: dropped from 70ish to 35 and scared the spit out of me. But I REALLY liked my iPod and iTunes on my new MacBook Titanium was just such a revelation that I hung on. The phone and the pad have been happy additons...
This drop from a possible 20x yield to a possible 11x has been upsetting but not nearly as scary.
Last November called, it wants its Apple P/E back.
Lucky that I chose to ride on Steve's back... now there's a fresh new opinion on this Forum.
If you chose that at the time he came back, before iMac, iPod, etc, and not just saying that with today's hindsight, then I would say you gambled. He was a legend because of the Macintosh, but his business track record was not established by any means. Same for basing choices on "chatter" re Gold.
I prefer to envision the likely future, if and when I can, like in the earlier post. I am either right or wrong, but never lucky, good or bad. If I end up right for the wrong reason, I am humble and learn my lesson.
If you chose that at the time he came back, before iMac, iPod, etc, and not just saying that with today's hindsight, then I would say you gambled. He was a legend because of the Macintosh, but his business track record was not established by any means. Same for basing choices on "chatter" re Gold.
I prefer to envision the likely future, if and when I can, like in the earlier post. I am either right or wrong, but never lucky, good or bad. If I end up right for the wrong reason, I am humble and learn my lesson.
I don't understand how so many people can think that the AAPL decline isn't expected and/or that the stock isn't still overvalued.
If you were to try and think of one company that might have its stock price inflated by company "fans" and/or amateur investors looking for the "next big company", I think 99.9% of people would think of AAPL.
Honestly, did you all think that apple was worth more than every non-state oil company in the world? I'm no investor myself, but that always seemed ridiculous to me - those are companies who have no real competitors, whose product is guaranteed to rise in value in the future, and whose product will never be replaced by a "better" product in our lifetimes.
Also, as soon as Apple became "the biggest company in the world", you also had to expect that a bunch more idiots would gobble up stock because it was a "sure investment" because bigger is somehow better. I highly doubt any experienced/smart investors bought Apple when it starting passing Shell Oil and Exxon; it just doesn't make any sense.
I look at Microsoft's value when it was at it's absolute peak of dominance (and overinflated stock prices), installed on something like 90% of computers in the world in 1999, when personal computers were still a huge growth market and then see Apple pass those levels with, what 25% of smartphone sales, 50% of tablet sales and maybe 5% of global PC sales, and really there's no way I can see the Apple market cap being anywhere near realistic, even though Apple's profit margins are much higher than Microsofts have ever been. In '99, Microsoft was profiting on almost every computer sold (with no real competitors) at a time when global market penetration of computers was still growing exponentially. Compare that to Apple nowadays, with a thin sliver of PC sales in an industry that is stagnating, a non-dominant share of smart-phones, which is a segment with slowing sales the past 2 years, and a major share in Tablets, which is really an unknown in terms of future value. Nothing suggests Apple should be worth more than Exxon to me.
I don't understand how so many people can think that the AAPL decline isn't expected and/or that the stock isn't still overvalued.
If you were to try and think of one company that might have its stock price inflated by company "fans" and/or amateur investors looking for the "next big company", I think 99.9% of people would think of AAPL.
Honestly, did you all think that apple was worth more than every non-state oil company in the world? I'm no investor myself, but that always seemed ridiculous to me - those are companies who have no real competitors, whose product is guaranteed to rise in value in the future, and whose product will never be replaced by a "better" product in our lifetimes.
Also, as soon as Apple became "the biggest company in the world", you also had to expect that a bunch more idiots would gobble up stock because it was a "sure investment" because bigger is somehow better. I highly doubt any experienced/smart investors bought Apple when it starting passing Shell Oil and Exxon; it just doesn't make any sense.
I look at Microsoft's value when it was at it's absolute peak of dominance (and overinflated stock prices), installed on something like 90% of computers in the world in 1999, when personal computers were still a huge growth market and then see Apple pass those levels with, what 25% of smartphone sales, 50% of tablet sales and maybe 5% of global PC sales, and really there's no way I can see the Apple market cap being anywhere near realistic, even though Apple's profit margins are much higher than Microsofts have ever been. In '99, Microsoft was profiting on almost every computer sold (with no real competitors) at a time when global market penetration of computers was still growing exponentially. Compare that to Apple nowadays, with a thin sliver of PC sales in an industry that is stagnating, a non-dominant share of smart-phones, which is a segment with slowing sales the past 2 years, and a major share in Tablets, which is really an unknown in terms of future value. Nothing suggests Apple should be worth more than Exxon to me.
So you think that's why Apple is down 38% in the last 6 months? Because investors realized it shouldn't be worth more than an oil company? Would you agree that Apple's P/E of 8 makes sense when Google's is 23 and Microsoft's is 15?
Seems to me the drop in Apple stock is more to do with emotion than fundamentals. The meme in the media is that Apple isn't cool any more, is out of ideas, Samsung is the new cool kid on the block, etc. This meme keeps getting recycled over and over to the point where perception has become reality.
Where I would fault Apple is I don't think its done enough to try and turn around this sentiment. When Steve was running the show they could afford to be totally silent because everyone just assumed something good was being cooked up in Cupertino. Unfortunately now that Steve is gone that assumption is no longer being made. So Apple goes 6 months or more with no news, no product announcements and that gets spun as Apple being out of ideas, paralyzed, no idea how to counter Google, Samsung, etc. Apple's stance is to let the products do the talking. Which is fine if there's a steady stream of product launches spaced throughout the year. But going 6 months with nothing and allowing a vacuum to be created and filled with FUD and D&G is nuts.
Do you have any ideas as to how low Apple stock price will fall before it rebounds?
When approximately do we hit bottom?
Fall 2013?
If someone tells you that they know the answer, they are lying. If you think it is a good deal, buy it, if you don't, don't. No one has ever gotten rich by calling bottoms and tops.
Comments
OK, well then I would call you lucky if that's the depth of your consideration. Likewise, you will probably not remember, let alone appreciate, my dissertation above a decade from now in any case.
Fortune to you, Island,
Thompson
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
OK, well then I would call you lucky if that's the depth of your consideration. Likewise, you will probably not remember, let alone appreciate, my dissertation above a decade from now in any case.
Fortune to you, Island,
Thompson
Lucky that I chose to ride on Steve's back... now there's a fresh new opinion on this Forum.
jdnc123 left for the day and is now writing at The Onion:
Weeping Tim Cook Spotted Screaming For Help At Steve Jobs’ Tombstone
http://www.theonion.com/articles/weeping-tim-cook-spotted-screaming-for-help-at-ste,32104
" I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat."
Oh man I remember that: dropped from 70ish to 35 and scared the spit out of me. But I REALLY liked my iPod and iTunes on my new MacBook Titanium was just such a revelation that I hung on. The phone and the pad have been happy additons...
This drop from a possible 20x yield to a possible 11x has been upsetting but not nearly as scary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
If anyone can predict what will transpire a decade in advance and it happens as they say... well, that's either luck or they can see the future... global sense and all.
The only things I listened too were that gold would become king in the first decade and that Apple would prosper under Jobs.
... and I still consider that dumb luck.
In a world that permits Amazon's P/E to exist is there any other rationale?
Note that this quarter there has been no P/E since the last previous quarter they took a loss. They may want to take a loss over having the world's first 100,000 P/E.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138
" I was in it too, once upon a time, as my initial investment dropped 40% or so before recovering. I held on because I saw what was happening to the music industry and knew that Apple was in the catbird seat."
Oh man I remember that: dropped from 70ish to 35 and scared the spit out of me. But I REALLY liked my iPod and iTunes on my new MacBook Titanium was just such a revelation that I hung on. The phone and the pad have been happy additons...
This drop from a possible 20x yield to a possible 11x has been upsetting but not nearly as scary.
Last November called, it wants its Apple P/E back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Hmm..I was following on CNBC and they were pretty meh on Google, Microsoft and IBM.
Google had a massive bottom line beat (10% or so), IBM was worse than meh.
If you chose that at the time he came back, before iMac, iPod, etc, and not just saying that with today's hindsight, then I would say you gambled. He was a legend because of the Macintosh, but his business track record was not established by any means. Same for basing choices on "chatter" re Gold.
I prefer to envision the likely future, if and when I can, like in the earlier post. I am either right or wrong, but never lucky, good or bad. If I end up right for the wrong reason, I am humble and learn my lesson.
Thompson
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
If you chose that at the time he came back, before iMac, iPod, etc, and not just saying that with today's hindsight, then I would say you gambled. He was a legend because of the Macintosh, but his business track record was not established by any means. Same for basing choices on "chatter" re Gold.
I prefer to envision the likely future, if and when I can, like in the earlier post. I am either right or wrong, but never lucky, good or bad. If I end up right for the wrong reason, I am humble and learn my lesson.
Thompson
I envisioned the future with Steve.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
Honestly, just block me if you don't want to read my posts.
Can we just move on from this guy- Blah Blah Blah....
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
I envisioned the future with Steve.
Good.
So what do you envision now? How does it compare with what I posted? Let's compare notes, for you may have some valuable insight.
Thompson
I don't understand how so many people can think that the AAPL decline isn't expected and/or that the stock isn't still overvalued.
If you were to try and think of one company that might have its stock price inflated by company "fans" and/or amateur investors looking for the "next big company", I think 99.9% of people would think of AAPL.
Honestly, did you all think that apple was worth more than every non-state oil company in the world? I'm no investor myself, but that always seemed ridiculous to me - those are companies who have no real competitors, whose product is guaranteed to rise in value in the future, and whose product will never be replaced by a "better" product in our lifetimes.
Also, as soon as Apple became "the biggest company in the world", you also had to expect that a bunch more idiots would gobble up stock because it was a "sure investment" because bigger is somehow better. I highly doubt any experienced/smart investors bought Apple when it starting passing Shell Oil and Exxon; it just doesn't make any sense.
I look at Microsoft's value when it was at it's absolute peak of dominance (and overinflated stock prices), installed on something like 90% of computers in the world in 1999, when personal computers were still a huge growth market and then see Apple pass those levels with, what 25% of smartphone sales, 50% of tablet sales and maybe 5% of global PC sales, and really there's no way I can see the Apple market cap being anywhere near realistic, even though Apple's profit margins are much higher than Microsofts have ever been. In '99, Microsoft was profiting on almost every computer sold (with no real competitors) at a time when global market penetration of computers was still growing exponentially. Compare that to Apple nowadays, with a thin sliver of PC sales in an industry that is stagnating, a non-dominant share of smart-phones, which is a segment with slowing sales the past 2 years, and a major share in Tablets, which is really an unknown in terms of future value. Nothing suggests Apple should be worth more than Exxon to me.
Seems to me the drop in Apple stock is more to do with emotion than fundamentals. The meme in the media is that Apple isn't cool any more, is out of ideas, Samsung is the new cool kid on the block, etc. This meme keeps getting recycled over and over to the point where perception has become reality.
Where I would fault Apple is I don't think its done enough to try and turn around this sentiment. When Steve was running the show they could afford to be totally silent because everyone just assumed something good was being cooked up in Cupertino. Unfortunately now that Steve is gone that assumption is no longer being made. So Apple goes 6 months or more with no news, no product announcements and that gets spun as Apple being out of ideas, paralyzed, no idea how to counter Google, Samsung, etc. Apple's stance is to let the products do the talking. Which is fine if there's a steady stream of product launches spaced throughout the year. But going 6 months with nothing and allowing a vacuum to be created and filled with FUD and D&G is nuts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass
...even though Apple's profit margins are much higher than Microsofts have ever been.
You just destroyed any vestige of understanding of the situation with that one little line, showing a mind-blowing level of ignorance.
Why don't you go check what Microsoft's profit margins have traditionally been?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Yeah because their effective tax rate dropped from 18% to 8%. At least that's what John Fort said on CNBC.
Money is money.
Do you have any ideas as to how low Apple stock price will fall before it rebounds?
When approximately do we hit bottom?
Fall 2013?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur123
Do you have any ideas as to how low Apple stock price will fall before it rebounds?
When approximately do we hit bottom?
Fall 2013?
If someone tells you that they know the answer, they are lying. If you think it is a good deal, buy it, if you don't, don't. No one has ever gotten rich by calling bottoms and tops.