After crowning Samsung as Apple's heir, analysts now rethinking their math

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  • Reply 41 of 137
    stuffestuffe Posts: 391member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

    People are so focused on the unfinished UI but the little we can glean from those under NDA suggest developers are really stoked about iOS 7. Apple has a lot more cards to play and this fall should very be interesting.


     


    I am faintly amused by people *quite literally* judging an OS by it's colours.  There's a crap-tonne of overhaul under the hood too, and this is where the war is won.

  • Reply 42 of 137
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

    No, just common sense.

    When you release a new model and report only the shipments of that model, it will always overstate sales. Samsung shipped 10 M to the channel. Some of those were sold and some remained in inventory. As long as the number in inventory was greater than zero, then the sales figure is less than the shipments figure.

    Apple, OTOH, reports sales of all iPhone models combined. The iPhone has been around long enough to have reached a reasonably steady inventory level. So sales are roughly equal to shipments.

    Granted, people make too big of a deal of that difference, but in this case, it's real.

    The article says that the analysts are basing their views on data as it becomes available - not that this article is providing the data. While I don't believe much of anything that analysts say, if they do have data, it would be interesting.

    Not to mention that iPhone sales were from 9 countries while S4 sales were from 60, of course.
  • Reply 43 of 137
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,224member

    I don't need to learn any facts.  What I'm pointing out is that SHIPPED DOES MEAN SOLD unless returns are made.

    Please stop spouting nonsense. Learn a bit before mouthing off. You can translate 'shipped' to 'sold' only if you know what the channel inventory is. Apple is the only company to provide channel inventory info.

    Incidentally, it is now becoming increasingly obvious why your paymasters at Samsung are embarrassed to provide data on volumes sold. I've been saying this for many months now -- despite troll FUD from people like you -- and it looks like reality is finally coming home to roost.
  • Reply 44 of 137
    boriscletoboriscleto Posts: 159member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    What manufacturer ships something to someone if they haven't purchased it.


     


    It's called consignment. 

  • Reply 45 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    Please stop spouting nonsense. Learn a bit before mouthing off. u can translate 'shipped' to 'sold' only if you know what the channel inventory is. Apple is the only company to provide channel inventory info.

    Incidentally, it is now becoming increasingly obvious why your paymasters at Samsung are embarrassed to provide data on volumes sold. I've been saying this for many months now -- despite troll FUD from people like you -- and it looks like reality is finally coming home to roost.

    It could very well be embarrassing but it is also difficult for them to know the exact numbers of devices sold to end users. How many mom and pop cell phone stores are there in the 60 countries that have Samsung devices on their shelves? Do you think that they report back to Samsung how many devices they've sold? There needs to be terms to differentiate sales, because for instance a iPhone is actually sold 3 times to reach the end user. Foxconn sells them to Apple, Apple sells them to the carriers, and the carriers sell them to the end user. The second point of sale is labeled 'shipped' whereas the third point of sale is 'sold'.
  • Reply 46 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    boriscleto wrote: »
    It's called consignment. 

    Yes but do you think Samsung gives their devices on 'consignment' to the multitude of small cell phone stores littered throughout the world?
  • Reply 47 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    I don't need to learn any facts.  What I'm pointing out is that SHIPPED DOES MEAN SOLD unless returns are made.



     


    Okay, so let's try that another way...


     


    Shipped = sold - returns


     


    ML shipped 28m units.  How many were returned?  As it's a digital download, safe to say ? 0.  ? Sales ? 28m


     


    Galaxy S4 shipped 10m units.  How many were/will be returned?  Unknown.  2-5m?  ? Sales < 10m and may be < 5m

  • Reply 48 of 137
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,224member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    It could very well be embarrassing but it is also difficult for them to know the exact numbers of devices sold to end users. How many mom and pop cell phone stores are there in the 60 countries that have Samsung devices on their shelves? Do you think that they report back to Samsung how many devices they've sold? There needs to be terms to differentiate sales, because for instance a iPhone is actually sold 3 times to reach the end user. Foxconn sells them to Apple, Apple sells them to the carriers, and the carriers sell them to the end user. The second point of sale is labeled 'shipped' whereas the third point of sale is 'sold'.

    Another silly, talking-points post.

    Samsung coud easily report volumes shipped, for starters. They know how many handsets left their factory gates. Why don't they do that?

    And if needed, channel inventory can be easily estimated using an appropriate sample of retailers, with well-known (and accepted) sampling and estimation techniques. In any event, I doubt that a lot of 'small' retailers sell a lot of high-end smartphones.
  • Reply 49 of 137
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,459member

    Quote:


    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


    ...


     


    I take it that most of those copies weren't sales. /s ...


     



     


    Note is original post with the "/s" tag.


    Quote:


    Quote: Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

     


    I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.


     


    Speaking of shipped versus sold, did anyone else notice that Tim Cook announced SHIPMENTS of Mountain Lion in the keynote?  It's at 16:20 if anyone wants to go look.  I take it that most of those copies weren't sales.  Here, let me spare you the effort:


     


    Originally Posted by zeromeus View Post

     


    Apple's definition of SHIPPED means SOLD.  Apple SOLD 28 million copies of Mountain Lion because in order for Mountain Lion to be SHIPPED, it has to be purchased through the Mac App store.  Physical copies of Mountain Lion wasn't available to anyone except maybe institutions who needed the physical media to upgrade their systems through volume licensing.  In any case, Apple didn't ship 28 million copies to sit on shelves.  They actually "shipped" their Mountain Lion through their app store.


     


    Take some notes and learn your fact before you start talking non-sense. 



     


    And now note how it was edited in your post WITHOUT the "/s" tag.

  • Reply 50 of 137
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stuffe View Post


    "In contrast, Apple sold 37.4 million iPhones in the most recent Q2 ending in March, beating Wall Street's institutional consensus of 35.86 million"



     


    However, it was below the independent consensus of 38.13 million. 


     


    Apple also noted that their overall inventory channel had increased by 1 million.  Take away that extra stuffing and sales were closer to the major analysts' estimates.


     


    As for Samsung, next quarter's earnings report will give us better clues as to what's happening this quarter, same as with Apple.

  • Reply 50 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    Another silly, talking-points post.

    Samsung coud easily report volumes shipped, for starters. They know how many handsets left their factory gates. Why don't they do that?

    And if needed, channel inventory can be easily estimated using an appropriate sample of retailers, with well-known (and accepted) sampling and estimation techniques. In any event, I doubt that a lot of 'small' retailers sell a lot of high-end smartphones.

    You're right a lot of small retailers don't sell a lot of high end smartphones but there are a lot of small retailers selling a few high end smartphones and across 60 countries they add up.
  • Reply 52 of 137
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,224member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    Another silly, talking-points post.

    Samsung coud easily report volumes shipped, for starters. They know how many handsets left their factory gates. Why don't they do that?

    And if needed, channel inventory can be easily estimated using an appropriate sample of retailers, with well-known (and accepted) sampling and estimation techniques. In any event, I doubt that a lot of 'small' retailers sell a lot of high-end smartphones.

    You're right a lot of small retailers don't sell a lot of high end smartphones but there are a lot of small retailers selling a few high end smartphones and across 60 countries they add up.

    I see that you assiduously avoided answering my question in para 2.

    'A lot of small retailers.... that add up.' In other words, a wild guess. Could be right, could be wrong. Do you know?
  • Reply 53 of 137
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,459member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    Jesus, there was a /s after that sentence.  It was sarcastic.  Shipped equals sold for any company any time anywhere.  Shipped only means something different when returns are made.



     


    Samsung numbers are based on # of units in the retail chain whether sold to an end user or not.  Apple numbers are based on a consumer actually buying the device and using it.  There is a BIG difference between the 2.

  • Reply 54 of 137
    abazigalabazigal Posts: 114member


    IMO, the main issue is that Samsung is releasing too many models of smartphones, so soon.


     


    It has only been 9 months since the release of the S3 phone. Many people who bought one still have a long way to go with regards to fulfilling their 2-year contract. They are not going to fork out a hefty recontracting fee to switch over. 


     


    I think Apple nailed the right timeline. Focus on making one great phone once a year, and there will be no shortage of consumers whose contracts are up when you release yours. 

  • Reply 55 of 137
    isteelersisteelers Posts: 738member
    I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

    Speaking of shipped versus sold, did anyone else notice that Tim Cook announced SHIPMENTS of Mountain Lion in the keynote?  It's at 16:20 if anyone wants to go look.  I take it that most of those copies weren't sales. /s

    Here, let me spare you the effort:

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="26943" data-type="61" height="219" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/26943/width/350/height/700/flags/LL" style="; width: 350px; height: 219px;" width="350">


    Additionally, there are many manufacturers you can pick on for a lack of updates, but Samsung shouldn't be one of them.  Even the Galaxy S2 is running Jellybean.

    Finally, I think it's fair to say that Samsung copied aspects of iOS early on, but it's laughable to say that they would have to copy iOS 7 (unless you're only talking about the appearance of it) since Apple borrowed so much from Android in its update.

    As Mountain Lion had to be bought before it could be downloaded, and could only be downloaded from the Mac AppStore, shipment does equal sold in this case. Maybe extreme cases of selling on memory stick from an Apple store, but again sold to consume.
  • Reply 56 of 137
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member
    zinthar wrote: »
    This is actually worrying news for Apple as well, IMO. Pretty much every premium smartphone released in the past year has failed to live up to the sales expectations of Wall Street. In the case of Apple, the surprising story has been how much the iPhone 4 and 4S at lower price points have cannibalized sales that likely would otherwise have been iPhone 5 sales -- for many customers, having an iOS smartphone with excellent build quality is all they needed; the extra speed and features of the iPhone 5 weren't enough fro them to spend more for it.

    I suspect that Samsung is finding that many of its customers are opting for the price-reduced Galaxy S3 instead. Or the market for high-end Android will no longer accept cheap build quality and has opted for the HTC One.

    Or, perhaps most likely, many smartphone customers aren't bothering to upgrade when their contracts are up because their current phone works well enough and they're waiting until the day that they drop their phone in the toilet to use the upgrade pricing.

    Although most people on this site, including myself, would never trade away LTE or the speed and extra screen size of the iPhone 5 for a $100-200 discount on an older model, we're the minority of consumers.

    When the 5S and cheap plastic iPhone are released, I think Apple will discontinue the iPhone 4, 4S, & 5 altogether and force consumers to choose either the premium build of the 5S, or a plastic iPhone if they want the free with subsidy option.
    I think you just like to worry. :-)

    Bottom Line: Apple completely dominates the smartphone market, especially at the high end. True the market is getting saturated at the top, but if rumours are to be believed, they've been working on a mid to low market solution for at least a year and a half now whereas Samsung presumably has no such plan.

    If I played the market, I would buy Apple stock.
  • Reply 57 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    I see that you assiduously avoided answering my question in para 2.

    'A lot of small retailers.... that add up.' In other words, a wild guess. Could be right, could be wrong. Do you know?

    I can't answer a question I don't know the answer to, but I should've stated that before. Samsung knows how many devices were shipped/sold to the small retailers but would probably have to take a wild guess as to how many they actually sold to end users. Ultimately my point is that Apple deals with much less retailers than Samsung making it easier for them to get accurate end user sales numbers. Compared to Apple's numbers Samsung's numbers are embarrassing but compare Samsung's numbers to those of Motorola, HTC, LG, etc... and let's see who's embarrassed.
  • Reply 58 of 137
    jameskatt2jameskatt2 Posts: 718member
    Samsung deserves the losses. It can continue to sell its smartphones. But losses will pile up.

    By taking the high end, Apple will still take the lion's share of the profits.
  • Reply 59 of 137
    Last year Samsung claimed they had pre-orders of 9 million for the GS3. Fandroids were claiming that's how many customers pre-ordered when it turned out to be carrier orders. It took Samsung 55 days to hit 10 million, and the GS3 averaged 5 million per month for most of 2012 (except the holiday quarter when the iPhone 5 came out).

    Funny how you can have orders for 9 million but still take 55 days to hit 10 million. /S
  • Reply 60 of 137
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    icoco3 wrote: »
    Samsung numbers are based on # of units in the retail chain whether sold to an end user or not.  Apple numbers are based on a consumer actually buying the device and using it.  There is a BIG difference between the 2.
    That might be the case when they report initial weekend sales but other than that don't Apple's sales also include those to resellers like AT&T and Verzion? I think the bigger point is Apple consistently provides sales figures whereas other companies only do so when they feel like it or the numbers make them look good. Microsoft, for instance, reported Windows 8 sales figures but have yet to tell us how many Surface RT or Pro tablets they've sold. In the case of Samsung I have to believe they know how many phones were built and shipped - either direct to consumers or to resellers. That wouldn't necessarily tell us how many were sold but would give us a good idea.
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