After crowning Samsung as Apple's heir, analysts now rethinking their math

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  • Reply 81 of 137
    hittrj01hittrj01 Posts: 753member
    Wha
    mhikl wrote: »
    DED, you make my day every time I find any article by you. Wishy washy I cannot stand. Straight up I like, both my information and my Scotch. 

    What exactly is wishy washy scotch? :)
  • Reply 82 of 137
    genovellegenovelle Posts: 967member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    I don't need to learn any facts.  What I'm pointing out is that SHIPPED DOES MEAN SOLD unless returns are made.



    No it doesn't.  The Apple vs Samsung trail made that as clear as most already knew.  Samsung was supposedly selling 20 million Galaxy's per quarter in the US but when they were forced to disclose actual sales in court they actually sold 25 million over 2 and a half years. You never hear anything about returns because they don't have to disclose that.  So shipped does not mean sold.  If Apple followed their method they would count every phone they sent to their supply chain including their stores.  The other telling factor is the fact that whenever the carriers report their sales the iPhone has been half or more of their sales in the US even though they are only pushing Android phones.   

  • Reply 83 of 137
    bigmac2bigmac2 Posts: 637member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    It could very well be embarrassing but it is also difficult for them to know the exact numbers of devices sold to end users. How many mom and pop cell phone stores are there in the 60 countries that have Samsung devices on their shelves? Do you think that they report back to Samsung how many devices they've sold? There needs to be terms to differentiate sales, because for instance a iPhone is actually sold 3 times to reach the end user. Foxconn sells them to Apple, Apple sells them to the carriers, and the carriers sell them to the end user. The second point of sale is labeled 'shipped' whereas the third point of sale is 'sold'.


     


    What a fallacious post, while it's true Samsung have no idea of how much devices they sold, Apple control pretty much every aspect of their devices.  Unlike Samsung, Apple is vertically integrated all the way down to the end users, Apple knows exactly how many iDevices they have into users hands. 

  • Reply 84 of 137
    This just a bit to funny.

    "Samsung announced having shipped a record ten million units of the new S4 to its global partners, beating its shipments of last year's S3 model with a number that was also compared to Apple's Initial sales of 5 million iPhone 5 units....The difference was that Apple actually sold 5 million units in its first three days..."

    Did we not learn anything from Amazon when they shared sales figures and it turned out the numbers reflected the number they shipped to Bestbuy, and were still on the shelf?

    "Samsung has been trying to prop up sales of the S4 by experimenting with a flurry of models sporting smaller screens,"

    Wait, i'm confused. wasn't Apple gonna fail cuz their screen was to small? I thought the Phablet was gonna kill Apple.

    "The report cited analysts as pointing to "lacklustre prospects in Europe and [Samsung's home territory of] South Korea in particular," adding that "the S4, in reality, also lacks any real wow factor.""

    OK, now I'm really confused. I thought Samsung was killing Apple with its new features and designs? I thought iOS was getting old and tired?

    Somehow wall street decided that since all those high fahlootin stock traders had cell phones in their pockets that they had more knowledge and insight into smart phones than those dolts at Apple. You know, the same ones who predicted the iPhone failure because it didn't have the neccisary physical keyboard?
  • Reply 85 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    hittrj01 wrote: »
    Wha
    What exactly is wishy washy scotch? :)

    Johnnie Walker Red lol
  • Reply 86 of 137
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    jameskatt2 wrote: »
    Samsung deserves the losses. It can continue to sell its smartphones. But losses will pile up.

    By taking the high end, Apple will still take the lion's share of the profits.
    Sorry,James. I posted the wrong name in my thumbs up comment. Should have been: "Short and sweet words of wisdom, James."
  • Reply 87 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    bigmac2 wrote: »
    What a fallacious post, while it's true Samsung have no idea of how much devices they sold, Apple control pretty much every aspect of their devices.  Unlike Samsung, Apple is vertically integrated all the way down to the end users, Apple knows exactly how many iDevices they have into users hands. 

    I guess you didn't read my other posts where I state that, and Apple doesn't know exactly how devices is in users hands because the second after they've determined a number it already changed.
  • Reply 88 of 137
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Zinthar View Post



    This is actually worrying news for Apple as well, IMO. Pretty much every premium smartphone released in the past year has failed to live up to the sales expectations of Wall Street. In the case of Apple, the surprising story has been how much the iPhone 4 and 4S at lower price points have cannibalized sales that likely would otherwise have been iPhone 5 sales -- for many customers, having an iOS smartphone with excellent build quality is all they needed; the extra speed and features of the iPhone 5 weren't enough fro them to spend more for it.



    I suspect that Samsung is finding that many of its customers are opting for the price-reduced Galaxy S3 instead. Or the market for high-end Android will no longer accept cheap build quality and has opted for the HTC One.



    Or, perhaps most likely, many smartphone customers aren't bothering to upgrade when their contracts are up because their current phone works well enough and they're waiting until the day that they drop their phone in the toilet to use the upgrade pricing.



    Although most people on this site, including myself, would never trade away LTE or the speed and extra screen size of the iPhone 5 for a $100-200 discount on an older model, we're the minority of consumers.



    When the 5S and cheap plastic iPhone are released, I think Apple will discontinue the iPhone 4, 4S, & 5 altogether and force consumers to choose either the premium build of the 5S, or a plastic iPhone if they want the free with subsidy option.


    I wish the market research would actually list every mfg and product they offer and how many of each are being sold, so we can see breakdowns by individual products.  

  • Reply 89 of 137
    don108don108 Posts: 79member
    A couple of people have claimed that "Shipped means sold unless returns are made." Uh, no.

    In the case of some contracts with distributors, they get large discounts when ordered under a non-return agreement. If they can't actually sell a product they may use it as a give-away or as a loss leader. True, selling a product as a loss is still a sale, but if I were to sell 10,000 Toyota autos for $10 each the actual picture is much more apparent. There's aways a price point where second-rate products will sell.

    So products shipped or even sold doesn't give a great picture: numbers don't lie, but liars can sure put out numbers. A far more accurate assessment could be obtained by looking at the number of units activated. That would show the number of units actually in end-users' hands.

    Curiously, Samesung refuses to give out that information. I wonder why that is.
  • Reply 90 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by [CDN]switch View Post



    Actually for Samsung, shipped means simply shipped and not sold because they don't share their sales activity readily whereas for Apple, they will only talk about shipped when it equates to sales.


    In all fairness, if you look at the footnotes to their financial statements, both Apple and Samsung follow broadly similar revenue recognition criteria, and both of them technically report 'shipments.'


     


    The important difference is: (i) Apple also provides channel inventory data, so we can estimate actual sales quite well; (ii) Apple reports volumes. And we know that all of Apple's volumes refer to high-end smartphones.

  • Reply 91 of 137
    vvswarupvvswarup Posts: 330member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rttheartist View Post



    This just a bit to funny.



    "Samsung announced having shipped a record ten million units of the new S4 to its global partners, beating its shipments of last year's S3 model with a number that was also compared to Apple's Initial sales of 5 million iPhone 5 units....The difference was that Apple actually sold 5 million units in its first three days..."



    Did we not learn anything from Amazon when they shared sales figures and it turned out the numbers reflected the number they shipped to Bestbuy, and were still on the shelf?



    "Samsung has been trying to prop up sales of the S4 by experimenting with a flurry of models sporting smaller screens,"



    Wait, i'm confused. wasn't Apple gonna fail cuz their screen was to small? I thought the Phablet was gonna kill Apple.



    "The report cited analysts as pointing to "lacklustre prospects in Europe and [Samsung's home territory of] South Korea in particular," adding that "the S4, in reality, also lacks any real wow factor.""



    OK, now I'm really confused. I thought Samsung was killing Apple with its new features and designs? I thought iOS was getting old and tired?



    Somehow wall street decided that since all those high fahlootin stock traders had cell phones in their pockets that they had more knowledge and insight into smart phones than those dolts at Apple. You know, the same ones who predicted the iPhone failure because it didn't have the neccisary physical keyboard?


    Moral of the story: Never listen to a sell-side analyst from Wall Street. This is doubly important for Apple. I find it laughable when they throw out suggestions for products that Apple should sell, like a 5-inch iPhone or a cheaper iPhone. Do they seriously think they can run Apple better than Tim Cook and his team? 

  • Reply 92 of 137
    bigmac2bigmac2 Posts: 637member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    I guess you didn't read my other posts where I state that, and Apple doesn't know exactly how devices is in users hands because the second after they've determined a number it already changed.


    You know the last time i've check, you can't use an iDevices without being activated thru iTunes or iCloud first, making it a great way to know exactly how many devices is in use in real time. 


     


    BTW, did you know Apple HQ receive sale transaction from every Apple Store around the world in realtime and modulate the production on a daily basis. Normally all Apple's production is sold within 48 hours. 

  • Reply 93 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post

    The bulk of Apple's channels are direct to end users.


    Cite? Evidence?

  • Reply 94 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post



    Wha

    What exactly is wishy washy scotch? image




    Johnnie Walker Red lol


    Although that is 1000x better than the swill that passes off under the brand name Dewars.... image

  • Reply 95 of 137
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    This article has been hijacked by trolls with the help of apple enthusiasts (and some posing as Apple fans). Who remembers what DED's article was actually about. The trolls must be in heaven, delighted watching the gullible arguing over how many Samsung phones can dance on the head of a pin. :no:
  • Reply 96 of 137
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    webweasel wrote: »
    Okay, so let's try that another way...

    Shipped = sold - returns

    ML shipped 28m units.  How many were returned?  As it's a digital download, safe to say ? 0.  ? Sales ? 28m

    Galaxy S4 shipped 10m units.  How many were/will be returned?  Unknown.  2-5m?  ? Sales < 10m and may be < 5m

    dasanman69 wrote: »
    I agree, I would have it more like sold = shipped-(remaining stock +returns)

    Even with your modification, you're wrong.

    The correct formula is:

    Sold = shipped - returns - (change in inventory levels)

    If you're closing out an item and selling off inventory, you can still have sales without shipping anything. Similarly, if inventory increases enough, you can have shipments without sales.

    For a new product, there is undoubtedly an increase in inventory - which is why the numbers are wrong if you use 'shipped' as your metric. For a steady state product (i.e., total iphone sales where total inventory remains fairly constant), shipments are close to sales.

    I doubt if returns are significant in either case.
  • Reply 97 of 137
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BigMac2 View Post

    You know the last time i've check, you can't use an iDevices without being activated thru iTunes or iCloud first, making it a great way to know exactly how many devices is in use in real time. 

     

    So over the weekend I did a factory reset on my iPad.....it then had to be activated through iTunes......so does that count as a sale or new activation?
  • Reply 98 of 137
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    djrumpy wrote: »
    You guys are way over thinking this. There are two channels for shipping. One to end users directly and one to resellers. The bulk of Apple's channels are direct to end users.

    If something is shipped to an end user, it is SOLD.
    If something is shipped to a reseller, it is just shipped (not sold since the reseller would sell the item). Although Samsung may get a profit at that point, it's meaningless if it never ends up in an end users hands.

    Samsung relies more on 3rd party resellers like Best Buy, Target, Walmart, etc., so when they ship 10 million units, this is to stock their 3rd party resellers.
    When Apple ships 10 million, almost all of those will be to end users. Some also go to Apple stores, which typically sell out immediately, and a trifle make it to third party resellers, which also sell out immediately. Apple 3rd party resellers are typically are lower priority than direct end users sales and Apple Stores, as those same 3rd party resellers often complain that Apple chokes them out of sales.

    As a result, when Samsung says it 'sold' 10 million, it just shipped them to a reseller for resale, but it doesn't mean they ended up in a users hands
    The opposite is true for Apple.

    So true, DJ. Ana what ever his name is jut a troll, raging in sheep's clothing. Thanks, AI, for the blocking feature.
  • Reply 99 of 137
    bigmac2bigmac2 Posts: 637member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by geekdad View Post


     

    So over the weekend I did a factory reset on my iPad.....it then had to be activated through iTunes......so does that count as a sale or new activation?


     


    Since you reactivated a previously activated iPad, its serial number (or what ever unique identifier apple uses) haven't changed, it still count has one iPad sold, not 2.


     


    The important number here is not how many activations but how many serial or UUID has been activated at least once. I'm pretty sure Apple knows how to handle all the stats generated by his virtual and physical Store and got a pretty exact figure on sold devices. 

  • Reply 100 of 137
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BigMac2 View Post

     

    Since you reactivated a previously activated iPad, its serial number (or what ever unique identifier) haven't changed, it still count has one iPad sold for Apple, not 2.

     

    The important number here is not how many activations but how many devices produced has been activated at least once. 

     

    I am not disputing what you say about the activation but I am curious...how do you know?
    I bought my iPad 4 several months ago on Craigslist...it was on Verizon. But I have service through AT&T.....process is just to insert the AT&T sim card and restart the iPad and all is good. But then my data speeds did not match up to my other devices so i reset it and reactivated it on AT&T......does that show as a new activation for AT&T? Does AT&T then report it as a new device activation? Since it was not on AT&T before but on Verizon?
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